Group 1 - Japan aims for "zero tariffs" in trade negotiations with the US, but has limited bargaining power due to structural contradictions [1] - The outlook for Japan-US trade talks is uncertain, with economic indicators in Japan showing weakness due to tariff impacts [1] - India's response to US tariffs has been to pursue bilateral trade agreements rather than retaliatory actions, indicating a shift in its trade strategy [3] Group 2 - The US has initiated a tariff war with Japan, linking defense cost-sharing to trade negotiations, which puts pressure on Japan's government [4] - The recent US-China trade negotiations resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, which has influenced Japan's stance to adopt a firmer position [6] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida's strong demand for the elimination of all tariffs reflects a notable shift in Japan's diplomatic approach, garnering domestic support [9]

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan will not accept any temporary trade agreement with the U.S. that does not include auto tariff provisions, emphasizing that auto tariffs must be a core issue in negotiations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari reiterated that Japan will continue to demand the removal of all tariff measures from the U.S. [1] - Japan has proposed a comprehensive plan to the U.S. regarding the automotive industry, which includes expanding investment in the U.S. automotive sector and strengthening cooperation in shipbuilding [1] Group 2 - Japan's firm stance against U.S. tariff policies has been consistent, with Ishiba stating that Japan will not sacrifice its agricultural market to protect the automotive sector [1] - Recent economic data shows a concerning trend, with a reported 8.7% year-on-year increase in corporate bankruptcies in Japan, totaling 826 companies, marking the longest recession period in over three years [1] - The Bank of Japan has halved its annual GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, with the 25% punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Japanese automobiles being a significant burden on the Japanese economy [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. trade representative met with major South Korean shipbuilding companies to discuss potential collaboration in the industry [1] - South Korean shipbuilders are benefiting from order transfers due to U.S. restrictions on China's shipbuilding industry, leading to increased profits [1] - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is collaborating with U.S. shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls Industries to enhance productivity and promote advanced technology projects [1] Group 2 - As of the first quarter of 2025, South Korea's three major shipyards have accumulated orders amounting to $137.258 billion, potentially challenging historical highs [2] - The revival of the U.S. shipbuilding industry faces significant challenges due to years of decline, requiring substantial investment and time to meet standards [2] - Training skilled workers to build advanced modern ships will take many years, according to HD Hyundai Heavy Industries [2]

彭博社称，由于谈判持续进行，预计关税会对日本公司造成更长期的打击。早在美国施加大部分额外关税之前，日本经济在第一季 度即出现萎缩，这加剧了日本陷入技术性衰退——即连续两个季度呈现负增长的风险。 日本富士新闻网（FNN）5月11日曾报道称，日本首相石破茂当日在富士电视台的一档节目中，针对与美国政府的关税谈判，强 调"以（实现关税）0%为目标"，表示"讨论正逐渐达成一致"，还称与美国总统特朗普之间的默契"意外的好"。 "我们不会仅仅因为别的国家在推进就跟随它们。"石破茂称，"我们当然会在谈判中考虑时间限制，但我们无意因过分拘泥于时间限 制而损害我们的国家利益。" 报道称，石破茂的言论表明日本并不寻求快速达成协议，尽管按计划，美国将于7月初对日产品征收24%的全面性关税，而当前基准 关税为10%。 报道提到，石破茂没有解释他所考虑的时间限制。日本媒体报道称，负责与美国就关税进行谈判的日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正本周 将再次赴美，与美方进行第三轮关税谈判。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据美国彭博社最新报道，日本首相石破茂当地时间19日在日本国会表示，在日美贸易谈判中，日本不会因 时间限制而损害自身利益。彭博社称，石破茂此番 ...

不过业内人士强调，只有经济实力雄厚且对美贸易依赖度低的国家才可能对美国采取强硬态度，而像越 南这样对美贸易依赖度高的国家，实质上缺乏谈判筹码。 文章写道，一周以前中美谈判在日内瓦取得突破，双方同意在90天内降低关税，将税率下调115%，为 两国有望持续且艰难的多轮谈判奠定了框架。尤其是美国总统特朗普向中方作出的大幅让步，让从韩国 到欧盟的各国政府感到惊讶，这些政府此前一直听从美国的谈判请求，而没有对其关税措施进行报复。 "中国在与美国谈判时的强硬立场，让一些国家开始相信，他们在与特朗普政府的贸易谈判中需要采取 更加强硬的立场。"文章直言，在中国强硬谈判策略获得了一项有利的贸易协议后，那些采取更外交 化、快速解决途径的国家开始质疑自己是否采取了正确的方式。 "这改变了谈判的态势，"前美国贸易谈判代表、现任新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所客座高级研究员斯 蒂芬·奥尔森说，"许多国家会审视日内瓦谈判的结果，并得出结论认为，特朗普已经开始意识到自己高 估了自己的实力。" 尽管各国官员们不愿公开表明他们的态度有任何强硬的转变，但有迹象表明，尤其是一些大国，他们意 识到自己拥有的筹码比之前想象得更多，并且有能力放慢谈判的节奏 ...

Group 1 - The core issue between the US and EU extends beyond tariffs, involving deeper conflicts over EU technology regulations and digital services taxes [1][5] - The EU has initiated formal trade negotiations with the US, exchanging documents covering tariffs, digital trade, and investment opportunities [1][4] - EU officials express skepticism about the US's ability to pressure the EU into changing its digital tax and VAT policies through tariffs, citing the strength of the EU as a trading partner [1][3] Group 2 - The recent US-UK trade agreement is not seen as a template for EU negotiations, with EU officials rejecting the retention of a 10% tariff [3][4] - EU trade officials indicate that the US's proposed tariffs are unlikely to decrease below 10%, and some member states are more resistant to such agreements [3][4] - The EU's strategy may involve balancing between reducing losses and implementing counter-tariffs if the US maintains its current tariff levels [4][5] Group 3 - The EU has not taken significant retaliatory measures against US tariffs, relying instead on threats of increased tariffs, which have had limited effectiveness [5][6] - The ongoing trade issues are complicated by differing regulatory standards between the US and EU, which have led to numerous disputes in the past [5][6] - The EU is considering a comprehensive €95 billion retaliation package against US exports, including products like aircraft and bourbon whiskey [6][7] Group 4 - Discussions are ongoing among EU member states regarding which US products should be included in the retaliation list, with some countries seeking exemptions for specific goods [8][9] - The unity among EU member states in trade negotiations may be tested as the final agreement takes shape, with differing opinions on how to respond to US tariffs [8][9] - The EU's position will largely depend on whether the negotiations yield substantial tariff reductions [9]

美元指数本周受贸易利好和经济数据交织影响，呈现先扬后抑的走势。周初因中美发布贸易谈判联合声明，市场信心提振，美元大幅上涨，甚至一度接近突 破102关口。随后受美国CPI数据低于预期以及零售销售和PPI数据走弱影响，美元回落，截至发稿报100.87。 现货黄金周初盘整后波动加剧，本周整体将录得下跌。对贸易局势的乐观情绪以及美联储重启降息预期时间的延后，都打压了金价走势，周四盘中更是一度 逼近3120美元/盎司，随后虽有深V反弹迹象，但仍远低于前期高点，截至发稿报3182美元/盎司。 非美货币持续受到美元走势影响，欧元和英镑兑美元整体先跌后回升，周内波动显著；美元兑日元则在周初上涨后持续回落。 国际油价本周先涨后跌，周初油价得益于贸易乐观情绪而有所走高，但因市场预期美伊将达成核协议，以及EIA数据显示上周美国原油库存增加，引发投资 者对供应过剩的担忧，油价转为下跌。 行情回顾 美股本周整体乐观走高，标普500指数截至周四已录得四连阳，距离2月的历史最高点仅一步之遥，特斯拉、英伟达和苹果等继续推动美股的反弹，但周四表 现不佳导致纳指结束六连涨。比特币本周盘整，截至发盘报103670美元/枚。 投行观点精选 摩根大通 ...

观察者网消息，日前，在中美会谈取得成果后，一贯对美妥协让步的印度被曝态度突变，提议对美国加 税。但随后不久，美国总统特朗普就公开表示，印度已同意对美零关税。 短短几天，印度对美态度变了又变。这不禁让人质疑：印度，说好的硬气呢？ 见此，印度外长苏杰生急忙出面找补。据印度新德里电视台（NDTV）和美国有线电视新闻网（CNN） 报道，当地时间5月15日，苏杰生表示，印美谈判"很复杂"，一切尚未确定。 报道称，当被问及对特朗普相关表态的看法时，苏杰生回答称："印度和美国之间一直在进行贸易谈 判。这些谈判非常复杂。在一切都尘埃落定之前，一切都无法最终确定。" "任何贸易协议都必须互惠互利，必须对两国都有利，"苏杰生继续表示，"这是我们对贸易协议的期 望。在此之前，对其做出任何判断都为时过早。" 苏杰生15日回应特朗普表态视频截图 苏杰生上述表态，是对特朗普当日早些时候有关美印贸易谈判的表态的回应。 当天，特朗普在卡塔尔首都多哈与企业高管会面时表示："在印度销售产品非常困难，但他们向我们提 出一项协议，基本上愿意不向我们收取任何关税。"特朗普并未透露更多细节，也并未表示美国是否将 降低对印度关税或对印度实施零关税。 特朗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the issue regarding Google Maps is part of broader trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The South Korean Trade Minister highlighted that discussions around Google Maps are intertwined with trade talks [1]