本文作者：刘晨明/许向真/陈振威 报告摘要 扫描下图二维码 ， 可进入周一早8:00的路演链接 市场表现：中资科技行情波澜壮阔 1. 港股核心指数领跑全球，科技核心资产重估进行时： 截止2025年3月28日，恒生指数、恒生科技分别上涨16.8%、23.2%，在全球主要权益市场中涨幅靠前。 本轮快速上涨过后，2024年以来港股科技龙头累计涨幅已经超过美股科技龙头。 2. 如何看待抬估值行情后续&预期改善的结构性： （1）ERP：已来到过去几次高点的压力位附近，市场博弈和波动加剧。（2）市盈率与分位数：今年以来市 场涨幅主要由估值贡献。（3）PB/ROE：港股市场绝对估值水平仍不高，但全球截面来看与盈利水平匹配。恒生指数预测估值抬升、但盈利预测小幅下滑；恒 生科技盈利预测进一步上修。 基本面走到哪了：港股24年报初步统计。 截止2025年3月28日，我们统计港股初步公告的披露进度约达84%： 1. 整体法下，基本面企稳得到进一步确认。 可比口径下，24年年报全部港股、港股通（按当前成分、不追溯）、仅H股上市整体法净利润同比分别为12.0%、 4.9%、33.5%。 3. 海外资金过去半年节奏为： 特朗普胜选后主动 ...

「东升西落」的叙事 曲凯： 最近我又来美国了，发现市场真是变化太快，这边突然有人开始提到一个所谓「东升西 落」的叙事。 莫傑麟： 对，二级市场今年 1 月以来一直在演绎这个剧本，但其实 24 年就已经在为这个叙事做 铺垫了。 24 年美国的宏观环境和各项经济数据都比较好。他们一方面非常重视 AI，在所有前沿创新上也一 直绝对领先，另一方面又凭借美元的强势吸引着全球的投资。 但今年 Trump 上台之后，情况发生了变化。 Trump 在关税、财政支出上都做了很多调整，一套大刀阔斧去杠杆的动作下来，大家关注的重点 从 AI 转向了宏观问题，也对未来多了很多不确定性。 又因为过去几年，美国股市一直走高，投资人的预期已经被拉得很满。所以大家现在极度厌恶风 险，股市就会出现剧烈的震荡。 而今年的中国刚好是美国的镜像。 其实国内的股价从 24 年开始就有回升，但并不明显，直到今年 DeepSeek 的发酵才彻底引爆。 归根结底，还是因为大家之前对于中国科技行业和宏观环境的预期都太低了。 曲凯： 对，我觉得「东升西落」本质上是一种价值评判的回归，之前大家确实过于低估国内 AI 了，而 DeepSeek 就是一个典型代表。 ...

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 "纳斯达克固然强，但这轮优势在我。" 作者丨陈梓洁 编辑丨 付晓玲 曹宾玲 来源丨表外表里 "怎么就这么沉不住气呢，明明再多拿几天就回本了。" 盯着已清仓证券页面上刺眼的「-2000」总盈亏额，小羊后悔不已，恨不得穿回当时阻止自己割肉。 作为还在校的00后，打从记事起，他一直接收的舆论就是，"天天保卫3000点的大A，套你没商量； 一路向上的美股，闭眼买就能赚钱。" 怨气当然不是一天积累起来的，从特朗普上台开始，Lana感觉自己的投资运就变"霉"了：加征关税 大招一出，引发美股令人瞠目的跌幅；眼看大盘有了企稳迹象又跳出来"乱说"，股价再次下挫……循 环往复、没完没了。 可没曾想2月份一进来就对上美股大跌的行情，眼看越抄底越没底、损失不断扩大，他心态崩了，急 惶惶割肉跑路。 然而接下来的发展，让这波看起来像是"假摔"：上周底到这周，美股三大指数波动上行，技术面呈现 企稳信号。 市场的口风，一整个大逆转。华尔街集体摇旗呐喊起"美股见底"。国内美股拥趸、夹头大佬但斌，也 盯着K线乐观道："美股的 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6%, the CSI 300 Index down 2.29%, and the Wind All A Index down 2.1% [1] - Industry performance varied, with construction materials, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities showing strong results, while sectors like computers, media, electronics, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] - The market style is leaning towards mid-cap value stocks, with an average daily trading volume of 15,496.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic data for January and February showed overall improvement, especially considering the high base from the previous year; the GDP growth rates for the first two quarters of last year were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with expectations for a smoother performance this year [2] - If macro data remains stable, certain cyclical sectors may outperform expectations, requiring analysis based on industry characteristics [2] - Industries experiencing upward inventory cycles are noteworthy, as they have struggled for investor recognition in the past two years, and current downstream replenishment activities may lead to valuation and performance increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "East Rising, West Falling" is very strong, indicating a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics that could create investment opportunities in China [1][2][35]. Group 1: Geopolitical Changes - The relationship between the U.S. and China is likely transitioning from "Decoupling" to "Deal," which may alleviate U.S. inflation and boost domestic demand, thus enhancing the sustainability of U.S. finances and leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets [2][35]. - The current U.S. political landscape is characterized by intense internal party conflicts, which are reshaping the geopolitical environment and influencing the G2 relationship [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is facing a severe imbalance in its macroeconomic accounts, with a significant gap between national investment and savings, leading to a persistent current account deficit [13][14][15]. - The U.S. service trade surplus, which has historically helped balance the current account deficit, may shrink due to recent technological shifts and trade tensions [20][21][22]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is a critical opportunity for investors to capitalize on the potential revaluation of Chinese assets as external conditions change [3][36]. - The upcoming strategic opportunity for China is emphasized, suggesting that investors should be proactive in seizing these moments [47]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market fluctuations are primarily driven by collective expectations rather than just fundamental factors, indicating that investor sentiment plays a crucial role in market dynamics [4][45]. - The concept of the "multiplier effect" is highlighted, where consumer confidence and expectations can significantly influence economic behavior and market performance [39][44].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the home appliance industry in China, discussing market trends, retail performance, and investment opportunities in the sector [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Style Shift**: There is a notable shift in market style from technology sectors like AI to consumer sectors, driven by consumption-boosting policies [2]. - **Retail Performance**: Home appliance retail is expected to progress in a wave-like manner rather than experiencing sharp declines. The first two months of 2025 are influenced by a short-term pull-forward effect from December, but the overall impact on annual performance is minimal [3][4]. - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Air conditioning shipments are projected to achieve double-digit growth from March to August 2025, supported by promotional seasons and national subsidy policies [3][4]. - **Tariff Concerns**: Concerns regarding tariffs are diminishing, with companies having low exposure to U.S. revenues being less affected. This alleviates valuation pressures on the sector [3][5]. - **Valuation Levels**: White appliance companies are currently valued at historical lows, with Gree at less than 7 times earnings, Midea at about 23 times, and Haier and Hisense around 10 to 11 times [3][6]. - **High-End Brands**: Haier is benefiting from domestic sales transformations and its high-end brand, Casarte, showing strong performance with a 15% year-on-year growth in air conditioning installations in January-February 2025 [3][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Black and Kitchen Appliances**: The black appliance sector is benefiting from trends like larger screens and increased Mini LED penetration, while kitchen appliances are seeing growth due to the release of second-hand homes in first-tier cities [3][9]. - **Export Performance**: In 2024, China's home appliance exports exceeded $100 billion, marking a 14% year-on-year increase. The first two months of 2025 also show a 6% increase in export value [3][20]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive landscape in the home appliance market remains robust, with retail subsidies expected to reach 80-100 billion yuan, driving growth in the sector [10][21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Recommended investment targets include low-valuation, high-dividend white appliance companies like Gree, Haier, Hisense, and Midea, which are expected to benefit from domestic sales recovery and consumption-boosting policies [7][21]. Conclusion - The home appliance industry in China is poised for growth, supported by favorable market conditions, improving retail performance, and strategic investment opportunities. The focus on consumer spending and government support is expected to drive positive trends in both domestic and export markets [2][20][21].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the restructuring of the global landscape in the AI era is expected to propel China into the ranks of high-income countries, driving long-term expansion in high-quality consumption and service industries [2][3] - China's globally competitive output system is anticipated to lead the current technological revolution and foster domestic consumption prosperity over the long term [3][4] - The structural reversal of high inflation in the US service sector and low inflation in goods, combined with economic recovery in Europe and China, is likely to usher in a prolonged upward cycle for global manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a high market sentiment of "East Rising, West Falling," emphasizing the need to focus on the realization of fundamentals [4][43] - Short-term growth industries continue to show high-low cuts, with military industry being a focus, while mid-term preferences lean towards cyclical dividend assets, particularly in electrolytic aluminum, high-quality consumption, and service consumption [4][43] - Long-term prospects are favorable for the AI application industry chain and related Chinese advantages, including scarce manufacturing capabilities, with a positive outlook on Hong Kong stocks, central state-owned enterprises, leading advanced semiconductor firms, traditional manufacturing leaders, the Belt and Road Initiative, and military industry [4][43] Group 3 - The report notes that the US inflation structure may benefit the recovery of global manufacturing, with February's US CPI inflation unexpectedly falling to 2.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 2.9% [9] - The report also mentions that the Hong Kong stock market saw a decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 2.59% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 0.4% [14] - In the A-share market, the report indicates a divergence in performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.76% [20]

2025年03月12日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观深度 金融市场分析周报 (2025.03.03-2025.03.07) 报告摘要 | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3379.8284 | | 沪深 300 | 3941.4157 | | 深证成指 | 10861.164 | 主要指数走势图 季节性因素致通胀走弱,强力稳增长政策稳定 预期 -2025-03-12 财政货币双宽松,市场有望延续震荡上行 - 2025-03-07 金融市场分析周报 —2025-03-05 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址:北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大 厦中航证券有限公司 公司网址：www.avicsec.com 联系电话：010-59219558 传真:010-59562637 证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 1 ● 进出口:由于基数走高及美国加征关税,今年以来出口增速明显放 缓，后续不确定性加大。以美元计，1-2 月出口累计同比增长 2.3%,增速较去年 12月大幅放缓 8.4 个百分点;进口由增长 1%转 为下降 8.4%, 增速较 1 ...

独立行情中的不确定性 2025 年 03 月 11 日 邮箱：mouyiling@mszq.com 邮箱：meikai@mszq.com 邮箱：fangzhiyong@mszq.com 研究助理：季宏坤 执业证号：S0100124070013 邮箱：jihongkun@mszq.com A 股策略点评 20250311 [Table_Author] 分析师：牟一凌 分析师：梅锴 分析师：方智勇 执业证号：S0100521120002 执业证号：S0100522070001 执业证号：S0100522040003 ➢ 不一样的美股下跌。昨日(20250310)美股整体大幅调整，其中，纳指跌幅创 下 2022 年 10 月以来的新高。实际上，自 2025 年 2 月 20 日以来，美股整体已 经进入下跌趋势，随之而来的是 VIX 指数的持续攀升(图 1)与纳指加速器指标的 持续回落(图 2)。截至 2025 年 3 月 10 日，美股 VIX 指数已经逐步接近 2024 年 8 月的高点，而纳指加速器指标则远低于负两倍标准差水平。从历史上看，每当 纳指加速器指标回落至负一倍标准差以下时，纳指往往会迎来一轮反弹，但 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a low open and high close, with all three major indices slightly rising, showcasing an independent market performance referred to as a "miracle day" [1] - In contrast, U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.08%, S&P 500 down 2.70%, and Nasdaq down 4.00%, marking significant declines for major tech stocks [1] Economic Concerns - The global stock market decline is primarily attributed to rising recession risks in the U.S., causing severe market concerns [2] Investment Trends - A new trend of "East Rising, West Falling" is emerging, with institutions discussing this shift [3] - Citigroup downgraded U.S. stock ratings to neutral while upgrading Chinese stocks to overweight, indicating a shift in investment focus [3] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Chinese stock market is experiencing its best start to the year historically, with potential for upward movement if policies and earnings improve [3] Market Signals - The market showed resilience with only three stocks hitting the daily limit down, indicating a lack of panic among investors [4] - The market sentiment appears to be strengthening, as evidenced by the increase in stocks achieving consecutive gains [4] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions are characterized by a lack of clear leading sectors, influenced by factors such as increased tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming earnings reports [5] - Investors are encouraged to look for trading opportunities within sectors maintaining high growth, such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, robotics, and low-altitude economy [5] - For risk-averse investors, broad-based ETFs like CSI 500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF are recommended [5]