Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from November 17 to November 21, 2025, a total of 455 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 581.21 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week increase of 27.63% [4] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 233 issues with an issuance scale of 251.51 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 48.22%, making up 43.27% of the total issuance [4] - Local government bonds had 166 issues with an issuance scale of 103.66 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 26.83%, representing 17.83% of the total issuance [4] - Financial bonds had 56 issues with an issuance scale of 226.05 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 10.83%, accounting for 38.89% of the total issuance [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.83 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.40 years, local government bonds averaging 3.48 years, and financial bonds averaging 2.53 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.12%, with industrial bonds at 2.05%, local government bonds at 2.27%, and financial bonds at 2.02% [4] Group 2: Secondary Market - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in leisure services, which rose by 1.9 basis points, while the largest decrease was in steel, which fell by 1.9 basis points [6] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in electrical equipment, which rose by 14.3 basis points, while the largest decrease was in textiles and apparel, which fell by 27.4 basis points [6] - The largest increase in credit spreads for AA-rated industries was in public utilities, which rose by 2.9 basis points, while the largest decrease was in commercial trade, which fell by 1.6 basis points [6] - For local government bonds, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Beijing, which rose by 1.8 basis points, while the largest decrease was in Gansu, which fell by 3.2 basis points [6] - The largest increase in AA+ rated credit spreads was in Shanxi, which rose by 3.3 basis points, while the largest decrease was in Liaoning, which fell by 3.4 basis points [6] - The largest increase in AA-rated credit spreads was in Hebei, which rose by 1 basis point, while the largest decrease was in Guangxi, which fell by 3.6 basis points [6] Group 3: Trading Volume - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1,439.65 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week increase of 18.02% [7] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [7] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 423.20 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 12.67%, accounting for 29.40% of the total trading volume [7] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 419.14 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 1.22%, representing 29.11% of the total trading volume [7] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 346.81 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 42.67%, accounting for 24.09% of the total trading volume [7]

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251122 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 [Table_ReportDate] 2 ...

2025 年 11 月 22 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比增加，各行业信用利差涨跌互现 ——信用债周度观察（20251117-20251121） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 455 只，发行规模总计 5812.11 亿元，环比增加 27.63%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 233 只，发行规模达 2515.05 亿元，环比 增加 48.22%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 43.27%；城投债共发行 166 只， 发行规模达 1036.56 亿元，环比增加 26.83%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 17.83%；金融债共发行 56 只，发行规模达 2260.50 亿元，环比增加 10.83%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 38.89%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.83 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.40 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.48 年、金融债平均发行期限为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising on Wall Street regarding the high levels of debt that tech giants are incurring to build AI infrastructure, marking a shift from their previous practice of using cash reserves for capital expenditures [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Issuance and Market Reactions - The top five companies in AI spending—Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Oracle—are projected to raise a record $108 billion in debt by 2025, more than three times the average of the past nine years [2]. - Despite the surge in debt issuance, investors are currently not overly concerned about its impact on stock valuations, as the leverage ratios of these companies remain relatively low [2]. - The sudden increase in debt issuance has raised questions about the bond market's ability to absorb this influx, contributing to a significant pullback in U.S. stocks after six months of gains [2][6]. Group 2: Oracle's Debt and Financial Health - Oracle's recent issuance of $18 billion in investment-grade bonds to fund AI spending has drawn particular attention, with the company's stock experiencing a 33% drop since reaching a record high on September 10 [3][6]. - Oracle's projected capital expenditures for the current fiscal year are $35 billion, primarily for its cloud business, leading to an expected free cash flow of negative $9.7 billion [6]. - Standard & Poor's has revised Oracle's outlook to "negative" due to anticipated capital expenditures and debt issuance straining its credit profile [6]. Group 3: Broader Industry Implications - The trend of increasing debt among tech giants is indicative of a broader shift in the industry, with concerns about systemic risks arising from interconnected revenue relationships among companies with weaker balance sheets [7]. - The capital expenditure for AI is expected to rise significantly, with projections of $600 billion by 2027, up from over $200 billion in 2024 and nearly $400 billion in 2025 [8]. - Despite rising leverage, investors maintain a generally positive outlook on tech giants due to their sustained profit growth and strong competitive positions, with estimates suggesting that 80% to 90% of planned capital expenditures will come from their cash flows [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in borrowing and bond issuance by major US tech companies, including Meta, Amazon, and Oracle, alongside signs of panic in the private credit market, is causing caution among investors in the investment-grade bond market, potentially leading to increased financing costs and impacting global corporate earnings [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Investors are showing increased caution towards high-rated investment-grade bonds despite current credit spreads being near historical lows, influenced by fears of a market sell-off related to AI investment bubbles and upcoming US economic data releases [1][2] - Major Wall Street investment firms are reducing their exposure to top-rated bonds, with some even shorting this asset class due to concerns over pricing and risk [2][3] - The MSCI global stock index has dropped 3% this month, reflecting broader market fears and impacting various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies and commodities [1] Group 2: Credit Market Dynamics - The ICE-BofA index tracking top-rated US corporate bonds indicates spreads are only slightly above 27-year lows, suggesting limited additional yield for taking on corporate credit risk [3][7] - The private credit market, valued at $3 trillion, is experiencing anxiety as some investment firms implement measures to limit fund redemptions, indicating a lack of confidence in the pricing of investment-grade debt [2][3] - The pricing of investment-grade bonds does not adequately reflect the risks associated with potential economic downturns or credit events, leading to concerns about future performance [3][12] Group 3: Predictions and Strategies - Analysts predict that the next major point of concern in the market could be high-rated investment-grade debt, with some firms already taking profits on existing positions [3][4] - Investment strategies are shifting towards short positions in investment-grade bonds, particularly those linked to companies heavily investing in AI, as the financial environment is expected to tighten [16][17] - The anticipated reduction in the pace of interest rate cuts by central banks may signal the end of the current favorable financing conditions for heavily indebted sectors, including tech [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the US and Europe, highlighting mixed signals in various economic indicators, with a tightening financial environment and stable consumer demand [2][4]. Economic Activity - The US WEI index shows a decrease, with the latest value at 2, down from 2.27 the previous week [5][15]. - The German WAI index has increased to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week [5][15]. Consumer Demand - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has slightly rebounded to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45% [19]. - Mortgage rates in the US remain stable, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.24% [21]. Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index is at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week [25]. - US gasoline prices have rebounded slightly to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week [25]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe are tightening, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.511, down from 0.514 the previous week [30]. - Offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8 basis points [33]. - Credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91 basis points [36]. Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan and US-Europe bond spreads have narrowed, with the US-Japan spread at 240.5 basis points [38]. - The Italian-German bond spread has also narrowed to 75.5 basis points [38].

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through the Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index series [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of 0.65% in October, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [5] - The return for the China Treasury and Policy Bank Index in October was 0.66%, while the year-to-date return for the Chinese yuan measured in local currency was 0.60%, improving its ranking from 26th to 25th among 27 currencies [5] Index Performance - Long-term bonds outperformed short-term bonds in October, with returns for various maturity indices as follows: - 1-3 years: 0.28% - 3-5 years: 0.45% - 5-7 years: 0.60% - 7-10 years: 0.83% - 10+ years: 1.54% [5][7] - The China Aggregate Index level stands at 244.67, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [7] Market Dynamics - In August, the total outflow of funds from the Chinese bond market reached 99.7 billion yuan, a decrease from the record 303.8 billion yuan in July [13] - The outflow from Chinese government bonds slowed to 14.5 billion yuan, while foreign capital outflow from negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) decreased to 67.8 billion yuan [13] - The opening of the bond repurchase market to foreign investors may help alleviate short-term outflows and support the long-term internationalization of the Chinese bond market [13] Credit Market Insights - Recent credit events in the U.S. have impacted Asian credit spreads, which widened to 66 basis points, indicating a potential risk in the market [13] - The geopolitical landscape, including U.S.-China trade tensions and the Dutch government's intervention in ASML, adds uncertainty to the global economic outlook [13]

Economic Indicators - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth rebounded slightly to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45%[5] - The WEI index for the US fell to 2, down from 2.27 the previous week, indicating a decrease in economic activity[4] - The German WAI index rose to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week, suggesting improved economic conditions[4] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US decreased to 0.511 from 0.514 a week earlier, indicating tighter financial conditions[7] - The offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8bp, worsening from -24.3bp a week prior[8] - The credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91bp, compared to 2.96bp a week earlier[9] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index stood at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week[6] - US gasoline prices rebounded to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week[6] Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan government bond spread narrowed to 240.5bp from 241.6bp the previous week[10] - The 10-year Italian-German bond spread decreased to 75.5bp from 76bp a week earlier, indicating reduced risk perception in the Eurozone[10]

Group 1 - The current market does not expect significant short-term interest rate cuts, making it difficult for long-term government bond rates and short-term deposit rates to decline significantly [1] - The year-end focus should be on institutional allocation willingness and equity market performance, which could impact the government bond spread [1] - Two investment strategies are suggested: 1) opt for slightly lower duration for defense and wait for a 5 basis point rate adjustment before considering longer duration opportunities; 2) maintain a market-neutral or slightly longer duration stance, focusing on active bonds where spreads may compress [1] Group 2 - The Q3 monetary policy report indicates a cautious approach to significant rate cuts or reserve requirement reductions, emphasizing stable growth as the primary goal of monetary policy [2] - The current duration measurement is 4.5 years, with a focus on the absolute yield and credit spread compression opportunities in the 3-5 year credit bond market [2] - The credit bond market is expected to follow the trends of government bonds, with a recommendation to focus on mid-term government bonds for short-term capital gains [2] Group 3 - Convertible bonds in sectors like electronics, TMT, and automotive are significantly higher than other industries, indicating investor expectations for stock price increases and volatility [3] - The proportion of high premium convertible bonds in the market is higher than in previous years, suggesting that if stock market expectations remain stable, high premium convertible bonds will continue to thrive [3] - The valuation of convertible bonds is rising, but the sustainability of this increase depends on stock market expectations [3] Group 4 - As of November 14, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF index has seen a slight decline of 0.01%, while the ETF itself has increased by 0.01% [5] - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has shown a 3.15% increase over the past year, with active trading and a recent scale of 1.656 billion yuan [5] - The ETF has a historical profitability rate of 100% over three years, with a monthly profitability probability of 71.06% [5] Group 5 - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF in the past six months is 1.09%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [6] - The ETF closely tracks the index of active government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, reflecting the overall performance of these bonds [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector remains positive, suggesting further investment opportunities despite significant growth already observed [1]. Core Insights - The global economic team estimates the potential capital gains value of AI to be as high as $8 trillion, indicating that further investment is justified [3]. - The current AI investment cycle is believed to be in its early stages, with the market value of AI-related companies having surpassed the $8 trillion estimate since the end of 2022 [3]. - There are no significant signs of a macro bubble similar to the 1990s tech bubble, as the increase in AI-driven investment spending has been modest and short-lived [6]. - The financial health of corporate sectors is stable, with a steady U.S. current account deficit and narrow credit spreads, suggesting a lack of immediate risk for market adjustments [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to remain stable in the coming months, with no recession anticipated, and the Federal Reserve likely to adopt more accommodative policies [9]. - By early 2026, the growth outlook is expected to be more optimistic, which should positively impact stock market performance [9]. Labor Market and Policy Considerations - The labor market will be a key macro issue to monitor in 2026, as its stability could reduce expectations of downside risks [10]. - The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair and the composition of the 2026 FOMC will also be critical in determining policy direction and uncertainty [10]. Investment Strategies - Protective positions or strategies that capture upside exposure while limiting downside risk are recommended to navigate potential market volatility [7]. - If economic prosperity continues and debt usage increases, there may be an expansion in credit spreads, providing exposure to credit issuance stories and downside risks in the real economy [7].