Core Viewpoint - The bond secondary market showed increased trading activity in July, particularly in credit bonds, with a "V-shaped" trend in credit spreads, which first narrowed and then widened, ending the month at a low level for the year [1][4]. Trading Activity - The total transaction amount in the bond secondary market for July reached 413,960.27 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.28% and a month-on-month increase of 9.36% [2]. - In terms of bond types, interest rate bonds had a transaction amount of 256,461.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.38% and a month-on-month increase of 11.88%. Credit bonds had a transaction amount of 86,840.69 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.32% and a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [4]. Credit Bond Characteristics - The transaction structure of credit bonds showed divergence, with industrial bonds experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume by 22.35%, but a decline in quality as the proportion of AAA-rated bonds decreased while AA+ and AA-rated bonds increased. The duration extended towards the 3-5 year medium to long term [4]. - Conversely, city investment bonds saw a slight decrease in transaction volume by 2.40%, with credit quality concentrating towards AAA-rated bonds and durations extending beyond 5 years [4]. Credit Spread Trends - The overall credit spread exhibited a "V-shaped" trend, narrowing initially and then widening, with the month-end spread at 44.99 basis points, which is an increase of 14.54 basis points compared to the same period last year, but a slight decrease of 1.33 basis points from the end of the previous month [4]. Industry Spread Analysis - As of July 31, the median credit spreads by industry showed high spreads in textiles and apparel (153.07 bp), real estate (98.47 bp), and electrical equipment (86.35 bp), while public utilities and transportation had lower spreads (44.89 bp and 46.84 bp respectively) [5]. - Most industries in the industrial bond sector saw a decrease in credit spreads, with upstream energy remaining stable, while the communication sector in midstream manufacturing experienced a slight widening [5]. Future Outlook - The trading activity in credit bonds is expected to continue to rise, with credit spreads likely to remain within a fluctuating range. The implementation of the new VAT policy is expected to maintain the tax burden on industrial and city investment bonds, enhancing their comparative advantages and potentially increasing institutional demand [4][5].

【新朋友】点击标题下方蓝色"用益研究"一键关注 免税稀缺性催生溢价优势：政策明确2025年8月8日前发行的债券（含后续续发部分）继续免征增值税直至到期，这使存量老券 成为免税资产，以10年期国债为例，市场普遍预期相较新券将获得约10-12BP的隐含税收溢价。市场为平衡税后收益，可以通过 两种路径实现新老券收益率"打平"：新券收益率上行或老券收益率下行。短期资金涌入推升老券价格，例如政策发布当日30年 期国债收益率一度下行超1bp。 免税稀缺性影响机构行为：银行自营适用6.34%综合税负，为避税将增配老券；而公募基金因适用3%税率对老券偏好较弱，形 成机构行为分化。此外，银行自营税负上升，而委托公募基金投资可享"利息收入免增值税+分红收益免企业所得税"双豁免后， 通过公募基金通道避税将成为理性选择。 | 投资者类型 | 券种 | | 利息收入税率 | | | 转让价差税率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增值税及附加 | 所得税 | 合计 | 增值税及附加 | 所得税 | 合计 | | 公募基金 | 国债+地方债 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: Outlook for the Credit Bond Market from August to October 2025 [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Date: August 5, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term (within 1 month), credit spreads may still have room to compress, but in the next 1 - 3 months, spread compression faces resistance and potential adjustment risks are greater [4][6][32][70][71] - Credit strategy: moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window [4][6] Group 3: 7 - month Review 3.1 Primary Market - In July 2025, the issuance of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly month - on - month, and net supply increased month - on - month. Industrial bond net financing decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and urban investment bond net financing turned positive. Bank perpetual and secondary capital (two - tier) bonds' issuance and net supply increased significantly month - on - month. Secondary capital bond issuance and net financing increased, while perpetual bond issuance and net financing decreased [13][16][32] 3.2 Secondary Market - In July, credit bond yields fluctuated upwards, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Short - term yields decreased slightly, medium - and long - term yields mostly increased, and long - term yields increased more significantly. Credit spreads generally narrowed, with weak - quality medium - term notes and bank perpetual bonds performing better. In terms of credit spreads, ordinary credit bonds' spreads mostly narrowed, two - tier capital bonds' spreads mostly widened, and bank perpetual bonds' spreads mostly narrowed. The term spreads within 5 years generally widened, especially the 3 - 1 year term spread. In terms of holding - period yields, the capital gains of medium - and long - term credit bonds were negative, and the short - term holding - period yields remained positive [19][23][27][31][32] Group 4: 8 - 10 Month Outlook 4.1 Compression Phases of Credit Spreads - Phase 1 (May 1 - May 23): Overall catch - up of credit bonds under loose liquidity. Driven by the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the expectation of financial disintermediation and deposit transfer, except for some long - term secondary capital bonds, credit bonds generally rose, with yields and credit spreads declining [39][43] - Phase 2 (May 23 - July 18): A scramble for constituent bonds under the expansion of credit bond ETFs, further compressing credit spreads. Driven by continuous loose liquidity and the rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs, medium - and long - term credit bonds continued to catch up, and constituent bonds outperformed non - constituent bonds [48][52][58] 4.2 Characteristics of Credit Bond Market under Recent Adjustments - Credit bond yields had a pulse - type adjustment, but the widening of credit spreads was not obvious. Driven by the rapid rise of commodities and equity assets under the "anti - involution" background, along with tightened liquidity, the bond market had a pulse - type adjustment. The adjustment range of credit bond yields was mostly around 10BP, and the widening of credit spreads was mostly within 5BP. The credit spreads of long - term general credit bonds were even passively narrowing, and the spreads of constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds did not converge [61][65] 4.3 Market Outlook - Short - term (within 1 month): Credit spreads may still have room to compress. Market sentiment eases, redemption pressure eases, and credit bonds still have a positive carry environment and room for carry - trade and leveraging. The VAT recovery policy on interest income of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds may indirectly benefit general credit bonds [4][70] - Next 1 - 3 months: Spread compression faces resistance, and potential adjustment risks are greater. August - October may be a volatile period for the bond market, with the curve possibly becoming steeper. The difficulty of further loosening liquidity is increasing, and the probability of double - cuts (RRR and interest rate cuts) decreases. The incremental funds for credit bonds may be relatively limited, and their sustainability remains to be seen. The current credit spread protection space is thin, and the market trading structure is fragile. Credit bond ETFs may amplify market volatility [4][32][71] Group 5: Credit Strategies - Moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window. For ultra - long - term credit bonds and credit bond ETF constituent bonds, it may be approaching the profit - taking window [4][6] - For financial bonds,建议 reduce the position and duration of two - tier bonds and pay attention to TLAC non - capital bonds with both offensive and defensive attributes [6] - For general credit bonds, be vigilant about constituent bonds and focus on urban investment bonds and inter - bank bonds. Pay attention to the investment opportunities in 1 - 3 - year AA + and above - grade inter - bank bonds and 1 - 3 - year AA/AA(2)/AA - grade urban investment bonds [6] - Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the expansion of the Southbound Bond Connect. The expansion may bring allocation opportunities, and the dim - sum bond market is one of the core expansion directions [6]

Group 1 - The overall credit bond market experienced a downward trend last week, with spreads mostly remaining stable or slightly widening, influenced by tax policy changes that had a limited positive effect on credit bonds due to low overall spreads (<5%) [1] - The yield on commercial paper bonds decreased overall last week, leading to a further compression of spreads, indicating limited value for commercial paper bonds at their current spread levels [1] - The yield data for various credit bonds shows that the yields for AAA-rated bonds range from 1.68% for 1-year to 1.97% for 5-year, while AA-rated bonds range from 1.75% for 1-year to 2.15% for 5-year [2] Group 2 - The recent interest tax policy has objectively improved the cost-effectiveness of credit bonds, suggesting that there may still be opportunities in the credit market, although credit spreads remain low [3] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board bond ETF and the investment opportunities in corporate bond ETF (511030) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, while a new tax policy on bond interest income will take effect from August 8, 2025, impacting the bond market significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - The new tax policy will impose a value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, with a 6% rate for financial institutions and 3% for public funds [1][3]. - Existing bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to enjoy tax exemption until maturity, creating a tax advantage for these bonds and potentially widening the yield spread between new and old bonds by 5-10 basis points [3][4]. - The credit bond market may benefit as the tax burden on interest income remains unchanged, leading to a potential narrowing of credit spreads compared to interest rate bonds [3]. Group 2: Fund Management Implications - Public funds may gain a relative advantage over proprietary accounts due to the new tax structure, as public funds will face a lower VAT rate on interest income compared to proprietary accounts [3][4]. - The scarcity premium of tax-exempt existing bonds is expected to be released quickly, while the attractiveness of these bonds may lead to a decrease in their yields [4][5]. - New bonds may need to increase their coupon rates to compensate for the tax burden, with estimates suggesting a rise of approximately 10-11 basis points for 10-year government bonds to maintain net interest income parity with existing bonds [5].

中信建投研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中美斯德哥尔摩举行经 贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种恢复征收增值税，新 老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。点位方面，信用利差冲高 回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现了最近数月20—30BP的利 差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保险、理财等负债稳定机构的 买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。综合来看，短期债市有一定走强倾向，可 关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The credit bond market has recovered after last week's adjustment caused by the "anti - involution" trend. On August 1st, under the influence of the tax new policy, the cost - performance of credit bonds has been passively improved. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. Specifically, long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank, and Hengfeng Bank are strongly recommended. There is an optimistic view on urban investment dim sum bonds and US dollar bonds, and opportunities in capital bonds of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance are worth attention [3][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Overview - **Primary Market**: This week, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds decreased significantly compared with last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 46.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The weighted average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds increased, while the issuance cost of financial bonds decreased to varying degrees [1][8][20]. - **Secondary Market**: The trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 73.8 billion yuan compared with last week. In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds showed mixed trends compared with last week, and the turnover rate of asset - backed securities rebounded. The yields of most credit bonds with different maturities and ratings decreased, except that the yield of AAA + credit bonds over 10 years increased slightly. Overall, the credit spreads of different industries and ratings fluctuated, with a maximum amplitude of no more than 5BP [2][25][31]. - **Negative Public Opinions**: A total of 58 bond implicit ratings were downgraded this week. Among them, 38 bond implicit ratings of Financial Street Holding Co., Ltd. were downgraded. The "21 Meibi 01" bond issued by Xi'an Qujiang Meibi Lake Investment and Construction Co., Ltd. was placed on the watch list. The entity rating of Guizhou Huaxi Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the rating of its "21 Huaxi Rural Commercial Secondary 01" bond was also downgraded. The entity rating of Guiyang Baiyun Industrial Development Investment Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the rating of its "19 Baiyun Industrial Investment Bond 01" bond was downgraded. The "19 Contemporary 01" bond issued by Contemporary Energy - Saving Real Estate Co., Ltd. was extended [2][42]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 100.6 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 286.1 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 12.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.5 billion yuan compared with last week. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased compared with last week [8]. - **Issuance Cost**: The weighted average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds increased. Specifically, the issuance interest rates of AA, AA +, and AAA urban investment bonds increased by 10BP, 13BP, and 10BP respectively compared with last week, and those of AA, AA +, and AAA industrial bonds increased by 12BP, 14BP, and 14BP respectively. The issuance interest rate of AA + financial bonds decreased by 25BP, and that of AAA financial bonds decreased slightly by 4BP [20]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 73.8 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 13.8 billion yuan, the trading volume of industrial bonds decreased by 28.2 billion yuan, and the trading volume of financial bonds decreased by 59.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 2.1 billion yuan [21]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rate of credit bonds showed mixed trends compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds increased by 0.08 pct, the turnover rate of industrial bonds decreased by 0.17 pct, and the turnover rate of financial bonds decreased by 0.41 pct. The turnover rate of asset - backed securities increased by 0.07 pct [22]. - **Yields**: The yields of most credit bonds with different maturities and ratings decreased, except that the yield of AAA + credit bonds over 10 years increased slightly. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 3BP, 3BP, and 2BP respectively compared with last week [25]. - **Credit Spreads**: Overall, the credit spreads of different industries and ratings fluctuated, with a maximum amplitude of no more than 5BP. The credit spreads of AA banks, AA + mining and non - banking finance, and AAA electrical equipment industries compressed relatively significantly, within the range of 3 - 4BP. The credit spreads of AA + comprehensive and food and beverage industries widened relatively significantly, within the range of 4 - 5BP [31]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 1 year compressed slightly, while those of other maturities widened slightly. In terms of regions, most urban investment credit spreads widened [34][35]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds fluctuated slightly within 5BP as a whole, and the spreads of 3 - 5Y industrial bonds were under pressure and adjusted slightly [38]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds performed well, with different maturities and ratings compressing by 2 - 5BP [39]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan this week. The DR001 decreased from 1.40% at the close on Monday to 1.25%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3560 points, and the equity market cooled down and corrected. Commodity futures may have corrected synchronously due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the development direction of the "anti - involution" market in the future [44]. - The credit spreads of different industries and ratings fluctuated slightly. It is recommended to continue to focus on long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, and pay attention to relevant investment opportunities [45].

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has stopped falling, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. Short - duration and low - grade varieties have shown strong performance. Credit spreads have mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads have generally remained stable, with differentiation among different regions [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads have slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have also decreased [2][17]. - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined, and the spreads have generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds [2][24]. - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds have generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds [2][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Stabilization and Credit Spread Changes - Interest - rate bond yields first rose and then fell, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds declining by 3BP, 4BP, 3BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the decline in interest rates but underperformed interest - rate bonds. The yield changes of 7Y varieties with a small previous adjustment were limited [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining. Rating spreads and term spreads showed significant differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - Overall, urban investment bond spreads remained stable, with differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA and AA platforms remained flat, while those of AA + platforms increased by 1BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and county - level platforms generally remained flat [16]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds also decreased. The spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real estate bonds remained flat, those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds declined by 4BP, and those of private - enterprise real estate bonds increased by 8BP [2][17]. - The spreads of coal bonds of each grade declined by 1BP; the spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated steel bonds declined by 3BP; the spreads of AAA - rated chemical bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated chemical bonds declined by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds all declined, and the spreads generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds, with high - grade varieties performing slightly better [2][24]. 3.5 Perpetual Bond Excess Spreads - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds increased by 3.34BP to 7.16BP, and those of 5Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds remained flat at 7.65BP [2][27]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [31]. - The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [31].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs credit strategists are urging clients to hedge risks as the yield premium on global corporate notes has narrowed to its lowest level since 2007 [2][3] - The narrowing yield premium on global investment-grade notes has reached 79 basis points, the lowest since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [3] - Despite the significant narrowing of credit spreads and the S&P 500 reaching a record high, Federal Reserve officials have avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, indicating a need for more data to assess inflation risks [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026 [3] - The report highlights that trade policy has become more predictable compared to March and April, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks [3] - As investors begin to digest the differentiated impacts across the supply chain, the effects will become increasingly important through industry-specific variations [3]

金十数据8月1日讯，高盛信贷策略师近日向客户发出警告，建议对冲风险。策略团队指出："近期美国 与其贸易伙伴达成的一系列贸易协议，使关税前景更加明朗，投资者愿意忽略短期内经济增长的疲软， 只要衰退风险仍处于可控范围。"但他们同时警告，切勿因此掉以轻心。周四全球投资级企业债的信用 利差已收窄至79个基点，为2007年7月以来最低水平，彼时正值全球金融危机爆发前夕。尽管信用利差 持续收窄，且标普500指数本周再创历史新高，但美联储并未释放即将降息的明确信号，表明其仍需更 多数据来确认通胀风险不会持续。高盛策略师强调："当前仍存在足够多的下行风险，值得投资者在投 资组合中保留部分对冲措施。经济增长可能进一步低于预期，反通胀压力可能减弱，或对美联储独立性 的担忧重燃，均可能引发长债收益率大跌。" 高盛：全球信用利差收窄至2007年以来最低水平 建议做好对冲 ...