Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for an immediate interest rate cut, supporting a 25 basis point reduction at the upcoming September meeting, with expectations for further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Policy - Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, 2023, and anticipates additional cuts in the following months [1][3]. - He emphasizes that the neutral interest rate is around 3%, significantly lower than the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% [3]. Economic Indicators - Waller notes that the potential inflation rate is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, while labor market weakness is becoming a concern [3]. - The recent non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [5]. Internal Fed Dynamics - Waller and fellow voting member Michelle Bowman expressed a rare divergence in opinion, advocating for a rate cut while others preferred to maintain the current rates [4]. - This internal disagreement highlights differing assessments within the Fed regarding tariffs and economic outlook [4]. Market Reactions - The market data supports the case for a rate cut, as the labor market shows signs of deterioration, which may prompt the Fed to adjust its policy stance [5].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with expectations for further cuts in the next three to six months depending on forthcoming data [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller believes the potential inflation rate in the U.S. is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, supporting an immediate rate cut due to stable long-term inflation expectations and increasing likelihood of labor market weakness [1] - Waller previously voted against maintaining the interest rate at the last FOMC meeting in late July, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Waller suggests that the Fed should "ignore" the impact of tariffs on inflation, anticipating that their effects are temporary [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the December 2025 gold futures price dropping by $6.5 to $3410.7 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.19% [1] - Following a significant increase last Friday, the gold market has returned to a summer-like trading pattern, as the market has largely absorbed comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming [1] - Powell hinted at a potential interest rate cut as early as the September policy meeting, while also acknowledging the challenges posed by inflation rates remaining above the 2% target and signs of weakness in the labor market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, exerting additional pressure on gold prices, with the index rising by 0.73% to close at 98.430 [1] - Market analysts suggest that a sustained weakness in the dollar could continue to support gold prices, while concerns over potential government intervention and policy missteps may have a more significant impact on interest rates, the dollar, and gold [1] - Despite a reduction in global uncertainties and changes in trading flows, analysts believe that gold prices remain well-supported with limited downside risks [1] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are currently struggling to break out of a consolidation phase, with the $3400 level acting as a significant resistance point [2] - Silver futures for September delivery also saw a decline, dropping by $0.34 to close at $39.050 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a crucial speech amid unprecedented attacks from President Donald Trump, who has threatened to dismiss him and is seeking to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook [2] - Powell's term as chairman ends in May 2026, and discussions about his successor are already underway, highlighting rare internal divisions within the Fed [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Since December, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates while observing the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [3] - Financial markets believe there is sufficient reason for a rate cut as early as September, although Powell has not yet indicated a strong position on this matter [4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Most economists expect Trump's tariffs to raise prices, but there is a growing belief among Fed voters that any price pressures may be temporary [4][5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% in July, with an annual increase of 3.3%, exceeding economists' expectations [5] Group 4: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is a key theme for the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting, with recent employment growth showing signs of weakness compared to previous years [7] - The number of long-term unemployed individuals reached its highest level since December 2021, indicating challenges in job recovery [7][8] - Fed officials express concerns that a weak labor market may limit the ability of businesses to raise prices, potentially affecting inflation dynamics [8]

此外，美联储7月货币政策会议纪要还显示，与会者认为，如果加征关税对物价的影响长期持续，将危 及长期通胀预期的稳定性。 刘英分析说，这是美联储对美国关税政策长期影响做出的判断。 当地时间8月20日，美联储公布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)7月货币政策会议纪要显示，部分与会者 指出，美国对全球贸易对象加征关税的政策，将持续影响美国消费和服务价格。 与此同时，与会者指出，迄今为止的证据表明，外国出口商只支付了加征关税的"小部分成本"，美国国 内企业和消费者则承担了"主要成本"。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析认为，这是美联储对 当下美国关税政策影响的判断，而这一结论与特朗普在第一任期内发起关税战时，美国业界做出的评价 一致。 这次美联储的货币政策会议纪要对美国关税政策对价格的影响做出"逐步推升"的明确判断。在成本分摊 方面，其实在特朗普第一任期时，包括彼得森研究所也做出了非常明确的数据分析，结论就是九成以上 的关税成本都是由美国消费者承担的。美联储也认为这些高关税，无论是"对等关税"还是行业关税，都 会逐步由美国的消费者来承担，从而推升美国的通胀，所以它在降息方面采取了一 ...

Group 1 - James Bullard, a strong contender for the Federal Reserve chair, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a total reduction of 100 basis points within this year, starting with a cut in September [1][2] - Bullard's stance contrasts with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who maintains a more cautious outlook, expecting only one rate cut this year, reflecting internal policy disagreements within the Fed amid signs of a weak labor market and inflationary pressures [1][3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, with futures contracts indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] Group 2 - Bullard believes the current policy rate is "a bit too high" and emphasizes the need for swift action, indicating that further cuts could follow later this year depending on economic data [2] - Bostic describes the current interest rate level as "marginally" restrictive and suggests that once the Fed begins to adjust rates, it should do so in a consistent direction rather than oscillating [3] - The divergence in views among Fed officials comes at a critical time for policy-making, with Bostic highlighting concerns over recent employment reports and rising wholesale inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate increasing concerns among officials regarding economic slowdown, particularly in the second half of the year [1] Economic Activity - Several participants in the meeting expressed expectations that economic activity growth will remain sluggish in the latter half of the year [1] Consumer Spending - Observations were made regarding the household sector, noting that the slowdown in real income growth may be suppressing consumer spending growth [1] Labor Market - The concerns about economic slowdown, particularly due to a weak labor market, may have intensified for some officials following the downward revision of job growth estimates by 258,000 for May and June [1]

Group 1 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 100%, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut rather than the traditional 25 basis points due to weak employment data [1][2] - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts, moving the timeline for the Fed's first rate cut to September, with a probability of a total cut of 75 basis points for the year exceeding 50% [2] - The recent employment report showed a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs compared to earlier estimates, reinforcing the argument for a significant rate cut [2] Group 2 - The market is now focused on the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.5% for July, down 0.1 percentage points from June [3] - The retail sales figures will serve as a critical indicator for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with any disappointing data potentially increasing pressure for a shift in monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The list of potential successors to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations within the Trump administration for leadership changes at the Fed [4][5] - Notable candidates include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, and Dallas Fed President Logan, among others [5] - Recent comments from Fed policymakers suggest a shift towards a more dovish stance, with some members indicating support for rate cuts due to concerns over employment and economic conditions [5][6] Group 4 - Economic analysts suggest that the Fed's decision in September will depend on further labor market weakness and moderate inflation related to tariffs [6] - Current economic conditions are compared to last year's pre-rate cut environment, with signs of cooling in the economy and potential job market pressures [6] - The complexity of the current economic environment, influenced by tariff-related price increases, may lead the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy if labor market conditions continue to deteriorate [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's economists predict that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Predictions - Nomura forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, indicating a consensus on the direction of monetary policy [1] - Divergence in Economic Analysis - There is a divergence among economists regarding the timing of the rate cuts, with some previously expecting the Fed to hold off on easing until later in the year [1]