Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor stated that Iran is willing to commit to never developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions, leading to a drop of over 3% in oil prices [1] - WTI crude oil fell over 3% to $60.60 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also dropped over 3% to $63.97 per barrel [2] - The geopolitical situation is easing, and high U.S. Treasury yields are pressuring commodities, causing gold, silver, copper, and oil to decline [5] Group 2 - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.5%, Germany's DAX down 0.4%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.5% [9] - The Indian stock market maintained its upward trend after President Trump mentioned India's proposal to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods [9] - The Japanese opposition party suggested using long-term U.S. Treasury holdings and importing U.S.-made Japanese cars as negotiation leverage in trade talks with Washington [12]

金十期货正在直播 地缘冲突缓和，黄金原油风险溢价回吐，期市后市如何布局？期货资深研究员Leo将分析当前黄金、原 油及其他热门期货品种的市场行情，洞察品种基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of finished products showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to low demand. Given the current macro and fundamental situation, it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices after a rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near term, and short - selling can be attempted during the rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate - From May 5th to May 11th, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4548 million square meters, with a 13.2% month - on - month increase and a 17.7% year - on - year decrease [2] White Goods - According to the online market monitoring data of Aowei Cloud Network, in April, the year - on - year growth rates of the online retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners were +1.0%, - 0.8%, +10.8%, +45.0%, and +34.8% respectively [2] Steel Industry - On May 13th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3334 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 87 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 18 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan/ton. On May 13th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was reduced by 20 yuan to 2950 yuan. On May 12th, the release of the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the United States was beneficial at the macro - level, leading to a rebound in many commodity varieties. However, there was still pressure on the domestic demand side. In the industry, due to the still - existing profits of steel mills, the hot - metal output and steel mill operating rates increased last week, but the downstream was gradually entering the off - season of demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the steel price was under pressure [2]

Core Insights - UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets and shifting towards gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets [1] - The tension in US-China trade relations is prompting investors to diversify their previously "US-centric" asset allocations [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in alternative assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as volatility is expected to persist [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Commodities may continue to move in a volatile manner with differentiated trends among varieties. Favorable factors include China's introduction of a package of policy measures to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and improve domestic demand, and the China - US high - level economic and trade negotiations easing market concerns. Unfavorable factors are the Fed's possible continued wait - and - see stance, complex overseas geopolitical factors, and increased risks of crude oil production increase due to internal disagreements within OPEC+ [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART ONE: Main Views - **Commodities Outlook**: The start of high - level economic and trade negotiations between China and the US can ease market concerns, but the Fed's new stage of assessing "dual risks", complex overseas geopolitical situations, and OPEC+ internal disagreements pose challenges to the overall commodity trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors and Logic**: This week, domestic commodities continued to fluctuate, with industrial products oscillating and agricultural products weakening slightly. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, and the US economy showed a "strong service, weak manufacturing" structure with a record - high trade deficit. Domestically, a package of financial policies was introduced to support the economy, and the domestic consumer market remained resilient during the May Day holiday [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Fed Policy**: On May 7, the Fed announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, with unchanged balance - sheet reduction. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see stance in the short term as the key to US economic growth and inflation lies in tariff policies [4][8]. - **Economic Data**: The US April ISM services PMI was 51.6, while the manufacturing PMI contracted for two consecutive months to 48.7. In March 2025, the US trade deficit was $140.5 billion, a 14.0% month - on - month increase, highlighting the structural contradictions in US trade policies [4][11][12]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Consumer Market**: During the 2025 May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous, with the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year. Domestic consumption, especially service consumption, remained resilient [4][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: On May 7, a package of macro - monetary policies was announced, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. These policies are expected to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and support long - term economic transformation. The April domestic manufacturing PMI fell back to the contraction range due to external demand contraction [4][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of May 9, PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively. The 30 - day moving average of vehicle manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales showed certain growth rates [29][35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: As of May 9, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index showed certain trends [37].

大宗商品方面，国际金价大跌。现货黄金向下触及3260美元/盎司，日内跌2%。 今日，离岸人民币盘中突然拉升。美元对离岸人民币汇率一度跌逾200点，随后跌幅有所收窄，截至 9:36报7.2289。 美股期货开盘上涨并持续走高，纳斯达克100指数期货涨逾2%，标普500指数期货涨1.4%，道指期货 涨1%。 ...

金十期货正在直播 鲍威尔多次强调观望，黄金高位震荡，商品期货下一步怎么走？期货资深研究员Leo将分析当前黄金及 其他热门期货品种的市场行情，洞察品种基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is influencing the gold market, leading to fluctuations in prices as traders seek opportunities in futures markets [1] Group 1 - The live analysis by a senior futures researcher, Leo, will focus on the current market trends for gold and other popular futures commodities [1] - Insights will be provided on the fundamental aspects of these commodities and their future price movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the current state of the gold market, with a specific mention of gold bulls returning to a price level of 3350, and an analysis of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting's impact on commodity futures [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The live broadcast will feature insights from a senior futures researcher, Leo, who will analyze the current market trends for gold and other popular futures [1] - The discussion will include an examination of the fundamental aspects of futures commodities and a forecast of the future direction of the commodity market [1]