今年是"十四五"规划收官之年。12月8日召开的中央政治局会议对今年及过去5年的经济社会发展作出总 结——我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险 化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战， 我国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二 个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 这份成绩单充分证明：我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没 有变。我们对中国经济发展前途充满信心！ 准确把握经济发展的基本面，必须超越短期的、扰动性的和局部的现象层面，着眼于主导性的趋势和宏 观层面，看到蕴藏其中的坚实支撑。 更加彰显的独特优势，强化了应对风浪的韧劲。我国经济长期向好，既是由我国高质量发展的历史方 位、发展基础、政治保障等基本条件造就的，也受益于优势因素的相辅相成、叠加放大。以组织动员能 力、统筹协调能力、贯彻执行能力，引导资源要素向关键领域汇聚集中，为超大规模市场优势的发挥、 产业体系动能的增强、人力资源要素活力的释放，提供了稳定的制度保障；超大规模市场优 ...

Core Viewpoint - Economic governance is a crucial aspect of national governance, aiming to maximize economic potential and public welfare while addressing market failures and maintaining order [1] Group 1: Economic Governance Objectives - The primary goal of economic governance is to explore economic development potential and enhance vitality while effectively addressing market failures [1] - In the context of a complex domestic and international economic environment, high-quality economic governance is essential for achieving sustainable development [1] Group 2: Role of the Communist Party - The Communist Party of China is the highest political leadership force, playing a central role in economic governance [2] - Strengthening the Party's leadership in economic work is fundamental to enhancing governance effectiveness and ensuring policy coherence [2] Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The government should maintain a tight fiscal policy, manage finances scientifically, and avoid waste to allocate more funds for development and public welfare [4] - An appropriately loose monetary policy is necessary to ensure liquidity and support sectors like real estate, technology innovation, and small enterprises [5] Group 4: Macro-Economic Governance - Macro-economic governance is the core of economic governance, requiring innovative governance approaches to address increasing complexity [8] - The focus has shifted from mere macro-control to comprehensive macro-economic governance, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning and policy coherence [8] Group 5: Development and Security - Economic governance must balance development and security, as high-level security is a prerequisite for high-quality development [9] - The emphasis on integrating development and security reflects the need to address risks and challenges in a complex environment [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the anticipation of a year-end market rally in A-shares, analyzed from five perspectives: fundamentals, policies, capital, valuations, and technicals [1] Group 2 - Fundamentals have not shown significant improvement yet [1] - Policy measures continue to be implemented, with a focus on maintaining stability and enhancing quality and efficiency in economic work, alongside more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] - Incremental capital is gradually entering the market, with participation from various sources including individual investors, state-owned enterprises, and northbound funds [1] Group 3 - Valuations indicate that there may still be upward potential, with the risk premium of the entire A-share market at 54.01% as of December 8, 2025, remaining above the opportunity threshold [1] - The technical analysis shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the resistance line formed by the highs of 2007 and 2015, which may now serve as a support line for the current market trend [1] Group 4 - Investment strategies suggested include: (1) focusing on growth over dividends; (2) prioritizing sectors such as technology (overseas computing power, consumer electronics, edge computing, robotics, gaming, domestic computing power), lithium batteries (solid-state batteries, energy storage), non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals; (3) considering counter-cyclical buying in the aforementioned sectors during significant market declines [1]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-09 政策利好提振信心，股指放量上涨 市场分析 重要会议释放积极信号。宏观方面，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济 工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政 策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。海外方面，美联储定于12月9日和10日 举行议息会议，市场普遍认为，美联储很可能再次降息25个基点。市场将高度关注鲍威尔新闻发布会问答环节， 以及本年度最后一份"点阵图"。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，沪指涨0.54%收于3924.08点，创业板指涨2.6%。行业方面，板块指 数涨多跌少，通信、电子、非银金融、计算机行业领涨，煤炭、石油石化、食品饮料行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两 市成交额突破2万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.45%报47739.32点。 IF基差修复。期货市场，基差方面，IH、IF的贴水修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，市场在联储货币政策会议结果揭晓前保持谨慎，美股三大指数小幅收跌。 ...

宏观热点 中央政治局会议研究明年经济工作 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经 济治理效能。 此外会议还提到要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革 攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合 和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守 牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 外交部：经贸合作应继续成为中美关系的"压舱石"和"推进器" 厦门"十五五"规划建议发布 《中共厦门市委关于制定厦门市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》发布。其中提到，探索 建设具有自由港特征的经济特区，深入实施自由贸易试验区提升战略，深化自由贸易试验区与相关功能 区域联动发展，在探索与国际接轨的相关制度安排上先行先试。 我国船企签订国内单次合作签约最高金额订单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic strategy for 2026, focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency through proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The economic policy for 2026 will continue the trend of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, consistent with the 2025 policy direction [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is set to increase from 3% in 2024 to a historical high of 4% in 2025, while the central bank implemented a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate in May [1] Group 2: Focus on Domestic Demand and Supply Optimization - The meeting highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply as strategic bases for constructing a new development pattern and responding to international economic challenges [2] - Recent measures to promote private investment include 13 initiatives aimed at stimulating market-driven effective investment growth, alongside a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand [2] Group 3: Key Strategies for Economic Growth - The strategy of "optimizing increment and revitalizing stock" is crucial, requiring the development of new productive forces and strategic emerging industries while maintaining reasonable investment growth [2] - Revitalizing stock involves effectively utilizing idle and inefficient assets, including underused land, vacant properties, and existing infrastructure [3] Group 4: Integration of Policies - The integration of stock and increment policies is essential for improving policy coherence and resource allocation efficiency, ultimately driving high-quality economic development [3] - Adjustments to existing restrictive measures in sectors like automotive and housing are necessary to enhance the effectiveness of incremental policies [3]

据新华社周一发布消息，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。针对宏观政策 基调，会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松 的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治 理效能。 宏观要闻 政治局会议定调明年经济工作 海关总署周一公布数据显示，以美元计，11月中国出口金额同比增长5.9%，上月下降1.1%；进口同比 增长1.9%，涨幅较上月回升0.9个百分点，当月实现贸易顺差1116.8亿美元。 前11个月办理离境退税的境外旅客数量同比增长285% 11月出口增速回升至5.9% ...

与去年同期政治局会议"稳中求进、以进促稳"的要求不同，今年强调"稳中求进、提质增效"，并提 出"切实提升宏观经济治理效能"。业内分析，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接影响未来 五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精 准有效的政策组合拳，激发经济增长新动能。 2025.12. 08 本文字数：2428，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 2026年经济工作的政策基调已经明确。据新华社消息，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研 究2026年经济工作。 会议指出，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持 续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 政策基调更加积极 会议对当前经济形势作出判断。会议指出，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发 展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展 ...

会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强 高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。 ...

Group 1 - Economic governance is a key component of national governance, aiming to maximize national economic interests and public welfare while addressing market failures [1][2] - The relationship between the Party's leadership and economic work is crucial for enhancing economic governance efficiency, ensuring policy coherence and systematic governance [2][5] - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and vitality, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of Xi Jinping's economic governance theory [8][9] Group 2 - The theory emphasizes the need for a balanced relationship between government and market forces, advocating for a combination of effective market mechanisms and proactive government intervention [5][6] - Macro-economic governance has evolved from mere control to a comprehensive governance approach, focusing on strategic planning and policy coherence [6][9] - The theory also highlights the importance of integrating development and security, ensuring that high-quality development is supported by a robust security framework [7][16] Group 3 - The governance model proposed by Xi Jinping contrasts with Western approaches, which have faced challenges such as economic stagnation and social inequality, indicating a shift towards a more integrated governance system [10][12] - The emphasis on a tailored governance approach based on national conditions and cultural traditions is crucial for sustainable development [13][14] - The need for continuous improvement in the Party's leadership mechanisms and the scientific management of economic policies is essential for enhancing governance effectiveness [14][15]