体系化学理化研究阐释 经济治理理论的创新和突破 ——学习习近平经济思想的经济治理理论 科学有效的经济治理是释放经济活力、实现经济持续健康发展的关键。如何提升经济治理效能，是世界 各国高度关注的现实问题，也是经济学理论研究的重大课题。党的十八大以来，面对严峻复杂的国内外 形势，习近平总书记着眼于完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化这 一全面深化改革的总目标，围绕优化经济治理方式、提升经济治理效能创造性提出一系列新思想新观点 新论断，深刻回答了经济治理实践中的一系列重大问题，创新和发展了经济学说中的经济治理理论，有 力指引我国经济在高质量发展之路上乘风破浪稳健前行。经济治理理论的创新和突破，丰富和发展了习 近平经济思想，具有重大的理论和实践意义。 一 经济治理是国家治理的关键一环，是国家治理体系和治理能力的重要体现。一般来说，经济治理的主要 目标是既能充分发掘经济发展潜能、释放经济发展活力，又能有效弥补市场失灵、维护市场运行秩序， 实现国家经济利益和人民福祉最大化。进入新时代，国际金融危机深层次影响持续蔓延，世界经济复苏 乏力，全球贸易严重萎缩，保护主义势头上升；国内经济下行压力不断加 ...

Group 1: Economic System and Governance - The high-level socialist market economy system is a crucial guarantee for Chinese modernization, balancing the strengths of market economy and the advantages of socialism [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to improve the basic socialist economic system and enhance macroeconomic governance to ensure high-quality and sustainable development [1] - Policies aim to harmonize the roles of the visible and invisible hands of the market, stimulating internal motivation and innovation across society [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Private Sector - The establishment of Hubei Dongyuxinsheng New Energy Co., a joint venture between a private enterprise and a state-owned enterprise, showcases effective collaboration leading to significant production milestones [2] - The government is enhancing the competitiveness and innovation capacity of state-owned enterprises while also stimulating the potential of private enterprises in driving innovation and job creation [2] - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and the reduction of the negative list for market access to 106 items are aimed at creating a more favorable environment for private enterprises [3] Group 3: Resource Allocation and Market Mechanisms - The signing of a cross-provincial water rights trading framework agreement indicates progress in market-oriented resource allocation, with a transaction volume of 4 million cubic meters over 10 years [4][5] - The government is transitioning to a role that emphasizes market rule-making and maintaining order, aiming to correct market failures and ensure fair competition [5][6] - Reforms are underway to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and reduce waste, with a focus on allowing factors of production to flow freely across regions [6] Group 4: Macroeconomic Governance - The low-altitude economy is experiencing growth, supported by policy initiatives and regulatory frameworks that enhance its development [7] - The government is enhancing macroeconomic governance capabilities to support high-quality economic development, including measures to stimulate consumption and reduce burdens on residents [8][9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines significant infrastructure projects and emphasizes the need for effective market and government collaboration to ensure a healthy economic environment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in October remains stable, with solid progress in transformation and upgrading, while new growth drivers continue to strengthen. However, challenges persist due to external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Despite external adverse impacts and a weak domestic market, the economy has maintained a steady and progressive development trend this year [1] - Significant improvement in social expectations is a notable characteristic of this year's economic performance, reflecting the effectiveness of expectation management [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - There has been a marked increase in the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, with enhanced expectation management mechanisms [2] - The introduction of various economic and financial policies by multiple departments has strengthened policy synergy, aiming to avoid "synthetic fallacy" and "decomposition fallacy" [2] - The focus on consumer stimulation policies has been evident, with coordinated efforts from central and local governments, leading to enhanced consumption momentum [2] Group 3: Expectation Management - Strengthening policy coordination is crucial for maintaining the "strength" of expectation management, especially during economic cycle adjustments and structural transformations [3] - The need for targeted guidance in expectation management is emphasized, considering the increasing openness of the Chinese economy and the importance of engaging with foreign institutions [3] - Improving the accessibility of expectation management is vital, requiring effective communication between the government and various stakeholders [3]

Group 1: Core Views - The importance of scientific macro-control and effective government governance is emphasized as an inherent requirement to leverage the advantages of the socialist market economy system [1][2] - The need to enhance the macroeconomic governance system is highlighted as a strategic arrangement to address deep-seated issues in economic operations [1][2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Governance System - A well-coordinated macroeconomic governance system is essential for stabilizing the economy and promoting high-quality development [2][3] - The relationship between government and market must be properly managed to improve macroeconomic governance efficiency [5][6] Group 3: Effective Market and Government - The concept of "effective market" is defined by its ability to reflect the scarcity of production factors through price signals, drive innovation through competition, and achieve optimal resource allocation [3][4] - The "active government" role is described as necessary for strategic guidance, scientific regulation, and risk prevention, complementing market functions [3][4] Group 4: Historical Context of Economic Reform - Since the reform and opening up, China has transitioned from a centrally planned economy to a vibrant socialist market economy, with a focus on the market's decisive role under macro-control [4][5] - The evolution of the understanding of the government-market relationship has been a continuous process, with significant milestones outlined in various party congresses [4] Group 5: Macro-Control System Improvement - The macro-control system is crucial for ensuring stable economic operations and must be continuously improved to respond to internal and external risks [7][8] - Key areas for improvement include enhancing national strategic planning, promoting regional coordinated development, and fostering innovation and industrial upgrading [8] Group 6: Fiscal and Financial Policy Reforms - Fiscal and financial policies are vital tools for connecting government macro-control with micro-resource allocation, and reforms in these areas are necessary for enhancing governance efficiency [9][10] - Specific reforms include optimizing the fiscal resource allocation, improving tax systems, and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11] Group 7: Consistency in Macro Policy Orientation - The need for consistent macro policy orientation is emphasized as a practical measure to promote high-quality development amid complex domestic and international challenges [13][14] - A systematic approach to policy coordination is necessary to ensure that economic policies align with actual development needs [15]

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of a sound macroeconomic governance system and effective government management as intrinsic requirements for leveraging the advantages of the socialist market economy system [1][2][3] Macroeconomic Governance System - The governance system should be closely coordinated with policies on employment, industry, investment, consumption, environmental protection, and regional development to ensure high-quality and sustainable economic growth [1][2] - The central government has made significant innovations in macroeconomic regulation theory and practice, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the foundational role of consumption in economic development [1][2] Government and Market Relationship - The relationship between an effective market and a proactive government is a core issue in China's economic reform, with the need for the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while the government addresses market failures [3][4] - The article outlines the evolution of the understanding of the government-market relationship, highlighting the shift from a focus on the market's basic role to its decisive role in resource allocation [4] Enhancing Governance Efficiency - Improving the macroeconomic governance system requires precise delineation of government and market responsibilities, modernization of government governance capabilities, and the establishment of a collaborative mechanism to reflect market demands [5][6] - The article stresses the need for a comprehensive macro-control system that can flexibly respond to internal and external economic risks, ensuring the stability of economic operations [7][8] Fiscal and Financial Policy Reforms - Fiscal and financial policies are crucial tools for connecting government macro-control with micro resource allocation, and reforms in these areas are essential for enhancing macroeconomic governance efficiency [9][10] - The article suggests focusing on improving fiscal resource management, optimizing the tax system, and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments to ensure sustainable fiscal operations [10][11] Consistency in Macroeconomic Policies - The need for consistent macroeconomic policy orientation is highlighted as a practical measure for promoting high-quality development, especially in the face of external uncertainties and domestic economic pressures [13][14] - The article advocates for a systematic approach to policy coordination, ensuring that economic policies align with actual development needs and are effectively communicated to stakeholders [15][16]

Core Points - The Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, Tao Ling, outlined five key directions for deepening financial reform [1][2] - Emphasis on developing a scientific and robust monetary policy system alongside a comprehensive macro-prudential policy framework [1] - The importance of enhancing the adaptability of financial institutions, products, and services to meet diverse investment and financing needs [1] Group 1 - The five key directions for financial reform include: 1. Accelerating the improvement of the central bank system 2. Enhancing the adaptability of financial institutions, products, and services 3. Establishing a well-functioning financial market 4. Building a higher-level open financial system 5. Creating a sustainable financial ecosystem [1] Group 2 - The need to balance development and security while promoting trade and investment facilitation, expanding the openness of China's financial market, and advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - The goal of constructing the Shanghai International Financial Center and consolidating Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [2] - The call to regulate "involutionary" competition in the financial industry to maintain reasonable profit margins and to encourage a healthy economic-financial cycle [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices showed a narrow - range overnight oscillation, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The weak ADP employment data in the US boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market was still cautious, and copper might be short - term optimistic but overall in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory [1]. - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed an oscillatingly stronger trend overnight. Alumina factory profits were continuously compressed, with sporadic production cuts in loss - making capacities. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, with a short - term high - level adjustment rhythm. Attention should be paid to the potential for the market to recover during the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions [1][2]. - Nickel prices declined overnight. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and overseas copper prices oscillated narrowly. The US ADP employment data in October showed a decrease of 45,000 in private - sector employment, the largest decline in two and a half years. This boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons, Comex inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 341,677 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 10,135 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME was soliciting opinions on new permanent rules. Short - term copper might be optimistic, but overall it would likely oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended oscillatingly stronger. AO2601 closed at 2,826 yuan/ton with a 0.01% increase, AL2512 closed at 21,740 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and AD2512 closed at 21,135 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Alumina factory profits were compressed, with sporadic production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, and the short - term would continue the high - level adjustment rhythm. Aluminum alloy followed the adjustment, and attention should be paid to the long - AD space after the spread narrowed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.5% to $15,025 per ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.25% to 119,150 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan from the previous day. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 136,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2,663 tons to 337,749 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 29.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 574 tons to 23,769 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 2,583 tons to 38,582 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 11, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the Nanhai price was 21,490 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 547,225 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 62.7 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 3.2 million tons to 16.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 253,404 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 436 tons to 37,187 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The LmeS3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price increased, and the inventory at SHFE increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 287,410 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1%. The spot price increased, and the SHFE inventory increased by 73 tons to 5,992 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 were presented, showing the historical trends of these premiums [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 were provided, demonstrating the historical trends of these spreads [16][19][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were shown, indicating the historical inventory trends [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were displayed, presenting the historical inventory trends [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel social inventories were presented, with time - span data from 2019 - 2025 for some and 2020 - 2025 for others, showing the historical social - inventory trends [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate were provided, with data from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of these smelting - related indicators [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and a top industrial - futures analyst in the futures and securities fields. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [51]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He provides timely market and policy interpretations and has written many in - depth reports [51]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides timely market and policy interpretations [52].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," summarizing the monetary policy execution and analyzing the current economic and financial situation, while clarifying future policy directions [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Execution - The report emphasizes balancing short-term and long-term goals, growth and risk prevention, internal and external equilibrium, and supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system [1] - A moderately loose monetary policy has been consistently applied this year, with significant growth in financial totals; as of September, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year as of September [1] Group 2: Financial Indicators and Economic Analysis - The report highlights the importance of total financial indicators, suggesting that social financing scale and money supply are more comprehensive than bank loans; it notes that a natural decline in financial total growth is expected as the economy transitions to high-quality development [2] - An analysis of internal and external economic conditions indicates insufficient global economic growth momentum, differentiated inflation trends, and a cooling labor market, with ongoing impacts from tariff policies and high debt levels in major economies [2] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The report outlines the intention to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring social financing conditions remain relatively relaxed while enhancing the monetary policy framework and its execution [3] - It aims to keep liquidity ample, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, while also focusing on supporting consumption and small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - The report stresses the importance of preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations and maintaining the stability of the RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level, alongside exploring macro-prudential measures to ensure financial market stability [3]

Monetary Policy Overview - The focus of monetary policy is to support the real economy, with a higher likelihood of increasing structural monetary policy tools in the second half of 2025[1] - The report indicates a shift towards "doing a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" compared to previous emphasis on "enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance"[2] Changes in Policy Language - The overall tone remains moderately loose, with a change from "implementing in detail" to "implementing well" regarding monetary policy[2] - The assessment of the international economic situation has shifted from "weakening growth momentum" to "insufficient growth momentum" in the global economy[2] - The report emphasizes the need to "consolidate the foundation for domestic economic recovery" and "enhance confidence in victory"[2] Key Focus Areas - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a relatively loose social financing condition and optimizing the monetary policy framework[3] - It stresses the need to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate sector, indicating a focus on constructing a new development model[3] - The report includes four specialized sections, addressing the relationship between base currency and money, financial support for digital economy development, and maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships[3] Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose into 2026, with a focus on stabilizing growth and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy tools[2] - There is a potential for the central bank to utilize open market operations to stabilize interest rate fluctuations around the New Year and Spring Festival holidays[2] - Risks include potential overseas inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in major economies[2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery and maintain financial market stability [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to deepen financial reforms and enhance high-level opening-up, aiming to build a robust financial system and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2]. - The report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and ensuring that social financing and money supply growth align with economic growth and price level expectations [2][5]. - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][5]. Group 2: Price Level and Economic Indicators - The report indicates an improvement in price levels, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the first three quarters, consistent with earlier periods [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has been rising since the Spring Festival, reaching a 1% increase in September, with a year-on-year rise of 0.6% for the first three quarters [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has remained stable, with a narrowing decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [3]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Trends - The report highlights a gradual shift away from focusing solely on quantitative targets, advocating for a more comprehensive view of financial metrics such as social financing scale and money supply [4][5]. - As of now, the total balance of RMB loans has reached 270 trillion yuan, while the social financing scale stands at 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development [4][5]. - The growth of social financing and money supply is expected to align with nominal economic growth rates, reflecting changes in the financial supply-side structure [4].