丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周北向重仓 50 领涨；市场动速方面，风格轮动速度继续高位震荡；行业板块方面，金融板块 领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准；风格方面，价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格； 主题方面，新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 机构赚钱效应：北向重仓 50 领涨 市场动速：风格轮动速度继续高位震荡 行业板块：金融板块领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准 风格跟踪：价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格 主题热点：新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前 指数名称及代码 价值稳健 861303.CJ 新型烟草 862302.CJ 指数走势 资料来源：Wind，长江证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the tobacco industry [1] Core Insights - The global tobacco market is projected to reach $951.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%. The market segments include combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion, new tobacco products at $870 billion, and others [11][19] - New tobacco products, particularly heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes, are experiencing significant growth, with heated tobacco expected to grow by 13.1% year-on-year [11][19] - Major players like Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco are increasing their focus on smoke-free products, indicating a shift in industry dynamics towards reduced harm alternatives [1][66] Summary by Sections Global Tobacco Market - The global tobacco market is expected to grow to $951.4 billion in 2024, with combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion and new tobacco products at $870 billion, reflecting growth rates of 1.6%, 1.9%, and 13.1% respectively [11][19] - The market is dominated by Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, and North America, with China, the USA, and Indonesia being the top three consumers [14][19] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's revenue is projected to be $378.78 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year organic growth of 9.8%. The revenue split is 61% from combustible products and 38% from smoke-free products [46][49] - The IQOS brand continues to grow, with user numbers reaching 32.2 million in 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year [55][59] - The company is actively expanding its smoke-free product offerings, aiming for smoke-free products to account for over two-thirds of its revenue by 2030 [65] British American Tobacco - British American Tobacco's revenue is expected to be £25.867 billion in 2024, with a slight organic growth of 1.3%. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in combustible tobacco but growth in new tobacco products [66][69] - The company is diversifying its product range, focusing on electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco, with new product launches expected to drive future growth [66][69] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is linked to British American Tobacco's new HNB product, and the OEM for Philip Morris International's IQOS, Yingqu Technology [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Strategies - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for three consecutive years and is implementing measures to reverse this trend [1] - Plans to enhance core competitiveness and establish differentiated competitive barriers in three key industries: premium paper packaging, new materials, and new tobacco [1] - The company aims to create a clear second and third growth curve through strategic positioning in the global market [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Opportunities - The company is cautiously expanding its new tobacco business into potential markets, including Europe and the Americas, based on local market characteristics and consumer preferences [2] - Plans to enhance competitiveness in the high-end packaging market by improving R&D capabilities and optimizing production processes [3] Group 3: Challenges and Adjustments - The decline in the premium paper packaging business is attributed to changing market demands and reduced customer orders, prompting a strategic adjustment to enhance product development and market outreach [4] - The company is considering restructuring or integrating loss-making subsidiaries to improve overall profitability and market competitiveness [6] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company is focused on building a diversified development framework in the new tobacco sector, emphasizing customized services and standardized production management [5] - Plans to advance the electronic materials business by overcoming technical barriers and enhancing product performance for scale production [5]

Market Performance - Non-fund heavy positions led the gains in the week[2] - Style rotation speed remains high and volatile[4] Sector Analysis - The industrial sector outperformed, with information technology and hardware significantly exceeding industry benchmarks[5] - Growth and micro-cap indices have led the performance year-to-date[5][26] Thematic Trends - New tobacco and digital currency themes are currently leading[5][30] Risk Considerations - Historical data used in this report does not guarantee future performance[6][32]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new tobacco products industry, with a focus on the growth potential of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch segments [8]. Core Insights - The global market for new tobacco products is projected to reach $86.96 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, with significant contributions from smokeless tobacco, vaping, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine products [2][17]. - The report highlights the strong performance of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch products, with the latter expected to grow by 51.0% year-on-year in 2024 [2][3]. - The market dynamics are shifting, with North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions showing robust growth, particularly in the U.S., which remains the largest market for new tobacco products [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Market Overview - The new tobacco products market is expanding steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2017 to 2024 [17]. - By 2025, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projections indicating increases across all product categories [2][17]. 2. Nicotine Pouches - The global nicotine pouch market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 21.2 billion pouches in 2024, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [3]. - Major tobacco companies dominate this segment, with significant market shares held by PMI, BAT, and Altria [3]. 3. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's revenue from new tobacco products is expected to reach $14.66 billion in 2024, a 17.0% increase, with heated tobacco product shipments growing by 11.5% [4]. - The number of PMI's new tobacco users has reached 32.2 million, with a 72.0% replacement rate of traditional cigarette consumers [4]. 4. British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT is accelerating its "smokeless strategy," with its modern oral tobacco segment showing a 47% revenue increase [5]. - The launch of the Glo Hilo product is anticipated to disrupt the current heated tobacco market dynamics [5]. 5. Altria - Altria's NJOY brand has shown significant growth, with a 15.3% increase in sales volume in 2024 [6]. - The on! brand also experienced a 40.2% increase in sales, indicating a strong performance in the oral nicotine segment [6]. 6. Imperial Brands - Imperial Brands reported a 24.2% revenue increase in its new tobacco segment, driven by strong performance in Europe [6]. - The company is actively launching new products to cater to changing consumer preferences [6]. 7. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new tobacco revenue is projected to reach 989 billion yen in 2024, reflecting a 21.1% increase [7]. - The Ploom brand is expanding its presence in emerging markets, contributing to overall sales growth [7]. 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding vaping market and partnerships with major players like BAT and NJOY [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets set for smoke-free revenue contributions [11][12][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report emphasizes the trend towards a smoke-free era, with leading companies adapting to changing consumer habits and increasing their focus on new tobacco products. For instance, Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a continued high-pressure regulatory environment overseas, with several countries implementing bans on disposable e-cigarettes and the FDA accelerating the PMTA process for new products. This regulatory landscape is expected to influence market dynamics and product iterations [3][12] Domestic Suppliers - Domestic suppliers are positioned to enhance their global market share. For example, Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a significant net profit increase of 48.4% year-on-year, indicating robust performance and strategic growth initiatives [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in manufacturing, which is expected to enhance its market share as HNB penetration increases globally [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading tobacco companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strategic positioning and growth potential in the evolving tobacco landscape [6][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets for smoke-free revenue [11][12] - Compliance is emphasized as a key development theme, with ongoing regulatory pressures in overseas markets leading to a decline in disposable vape products. The report anticipates a recovery in the compliant market and an acceleration in product iteration [3][12] - Domestic suppliers are poised for growth, with companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong showing stable revenue performance and plans for innovation and international expansion [4][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report discusses the increasing penetration of new tobacco products, which is changing consumer habits. Leading companies are focusing on R&D and product innovation, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [11][12] - Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030, while British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco have set similar ambitious targets for 2035 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a high-pressure regulatory environment in overseas markets, with new bans on disposable vapes in Belgium, France, and the UK. The FDA in the US is also accelerating its approval processes for new products [3][12] Financial Performance of Key Players - Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong achieved a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a net profit increase of 48.4%. The company is optimizing its product and channel structure for better profitability [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in the manufacturing of smoking devices [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strong growth potential and strategic positioning in the evolving market [6][18]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, particularly in non-recurring net profit, indicating potential growth in various business segments [1][7]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 44.17% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 1.034 billion yuan, up 14.90% year-on-year, while net profit was 80 million yuan, down 32.01% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45%, with net profit of 77 million yuan, up 37.81% [1]. Market Insights - The global smart controller market is projected to grow from 1.89 trillion USD in 2023 to approximately 1.98 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market expected to grow from 3.44 trillion yuan to 3.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 13.01% [1]. - The global new tobacco market is expected to grow by 12.7% in 2024, reaching 38.85 billion USD [2]. - The Chinese automotive electronics market reached 1.0973 trillion yuan in 2023, with an expected growth to 1.1585 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from smart control components was 1.145 billion yuan, down 13.96% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in new project capacity [3]. - Revenue from innovative consumer electronics was 1.137 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.55% year-on-year, with electronic cigarette sales showing stable growth [3]. - Automotive electronics revenue was 614 million yuan, up 19.43% year-on-year, benefiting from policies promoting vehicle upgrades [3]. - Health environment products saw a significant decline in revenue, down 53.14% year-on-year, due to increased market competition [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.36% and 28.82%, respectively, showing a slight year-on-year decrease and increase [5]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 431 million yuan, down 37% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in performance across multiple business segments, including electronic cigarettes, automotive electronics, and health environment products, with projected revenues of 4.494 billion yuan, 5.366 billion yuan, and 6.031 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PMI) reported Q1 2025 revenue of $9.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% (10.2% adjusted) [3][4] - Revenue from smoke-free tobacco products reached $3.9 billion in Q1 2025, growing by 15.0% (20.4% adjusted), with its revenue share increasing to 42% from 39% in Q1 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Performance - PMI's heated tobacco unit (HTU) shipment volume reached 37.1 billion sticks in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.9%, with global market share for HNB products rising to 77% [9] - The number of IQOS users reached 32.2 million by the end of 2024, an increase of 3.6 million [9] Market Insights - In Japan, IQOS market share increased by 3.0 percentage points to 32.2% in Q1 2025 [9] - In Europe, IQOS products saw approximately 7.4% growth in Q1 2025, with market share in the EU rising by 1.2 percentage points to 11.4% [9] Product Growth - Nicotine pouch sales grew rapidly, with a shipment increase of 27.2% in Q1 2025, and the U.S. market saw a 53% increase in shipments [9] - PMI expects smoke-free product sales to grow by 12%-14% in 2025, with HTU products projected to grow by 10%-12% [9] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies to watch include Yingqu Technology, Smoore International, and nicotine pouch-related companies due to the industry's growth potential [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Philip Morris International's (PMI) Smoke-Free Products (SFP) in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 20.4% year-on-year and a gross profit increase of 33.1%, resulting in a gross margin exceeding 70% [1][3] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) market, particularly in the U.S. where trials have shown strong market feedback, and the company expects double-digit growth for IQOS sales throughout the year [2][3] - The new nicotine pouch ZYN has shown impressive growth, with a 53% increase in shipments in the U.S. and similar growth internationally, indicating a robust demand for innovative tobacco products [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - PMI's HNB products, including IQOS, have captured over 70% market share, with a shipment increase of 12% for HNB products in Q1 2025 [1][2] - The gross margin for IQOS has improved significantly due to scale efficiencies and productivity enhancements [1] Market Trends - The HNB penetration rate in Japan continues to rise, reaching 47.8% in March 2025, indicating ongoing market growth even in mature markets [1][2] - The U.S. HNB market is poised for expansion, with ongoing trials expected to lead to broader market entry [2] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HK$128.9 billion, HK$151.1 billion, and HK$173.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 17%, and 15% respectively [3][9] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are HK$13.2 billion, HK$19.2 billion, and HK$24.8 billion, reflecting growth rates of 2%, 45%, and 29% [3][9]