1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - The price of plastics is under pressure due to abundant supply. The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply still suppresses prices. The overall market situation is not optimistic, with a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival [5]. - The strategy suggests a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now [5]. Polypropylene Part - Polypropylene prices are under pressure in the off - season. The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The market is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with an unfavorable supply - demand situation [95]. - Similar to plastics, the strategy recommends a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are also not recommended currently [97]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened significantly as the spot price increases less than the futures price. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened to - 31, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level [5]. - The import window has improved, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level within the year. The non - standard price spread shows that the HD film supply is tight, and the LD has weakened recently [29][32]. Supply - New capacity has been concentratedly put into operation from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. The supply is expected to remain abundant, with a slight decline in the short term and an increase in the future [47]. - The overall inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream. The subsequent supply increase and weak downstream confidence may lead to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Demand & Inventory - The demand for downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films has entered a phased off - season. The overall downstream demand shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease [5]. - The inventory transfer to the middle - stream is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened as the futures price rebounds, and the warehouse receipts have increased again. The cross - period spread is fluctuating [97]. - The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited growth. The non - standard price spread of the drawing material has slightly narrowed [112][119]. Supply - New capacity has been put into operation on a large scale from the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, with an effective capacity growth rate of 12.7%. The supply is expected to be abundant, but there may be a marginal reduction in supply if some PDH devices stop production in January [140]. - The inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream, and the overall inventory is higher than the same period last year [97]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders of some industries such as plastic weaving and pipes have seasonally weakened. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend [96]. - The inventory removal is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a high inventory level [97].

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 台H 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/26 -P G 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 华东液化气 目似 化油 E 2025/12/19 4398 4500 4380 573 504 497 4610 7150 -142 399 2025/12/22 4370 | 7150 4480 4388 580 536 202 4580 -213 355 2025/12/23 4475 4377 4370 7180 444 590 550 507 4580 -291 2025/12/24 4392 4320 4480 590 543 510 4570 7180 -277 398 2025/12/25 4520 4505 4389 4310 539 7150 413 l l I 0 B 日度变化 -10 -4 -50 -30 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, and the monthly spread weakened, while the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis also fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3][5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residue oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residue oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residue oil inventory increased slightly [3][5]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upside space was limited [5]. - The global residue oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations and feedstock price premiums. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but lacked a driving force [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 323.91 | 332.23 | 333.06 | 331.79 | 331.98 | 0.19 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 370.46 | 379.22 | 381.38 | 379.41 | 379.54 | 0.13 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | - 8.86 | - 8.91 | - 9.15 | - 9.49 | - 9.56 | - 0.07 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 588.07 | 597.32 | 607.46 | 608.64 | 607.21 | - 1.43 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 217.61 | - 218.10 | - 226.08 | - 229.23 | - 227.67 | 1.56 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 20.77 | 20.41 | 21.48 | 22.69 | - | - | | VLSFO - HSF M1 | 46.55 | 46.99 | 48.32 | 47.62 | 47.56 | - 0.06 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 335.69 | 340.79 | 347.07 | 347.60 | 344.23 | - 3.37 | | 180cst M1 | 342.69 | 347.66 | 352.82 | 352.53 | 349.23 | - 3.30 | | VLSFO M1 | 404.73 | 411.59 | 417.13 | 420.80 | 417.54 | - 3.26 | | GO M1 | 78.63 | 79.11 | 79.71 | 81.24 | 80.63 | - 0.61 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | - 6.57 | - 6.90 | - 6.88 | - 7.39 | - 7.63 | - 0.24 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 177.13 | - 173.82 | - 172.72 | - 180.38 | - 179.12 | 1.26 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 332.35 | 337.57 | 344.15 | 343.65 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 403.41 | 410.73 | 416.98 | 417.55 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 2.95 | - 2.80 | - 1.85 | - 1.60 | - | - | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | - | - | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | - | - | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2356 | 2413 | 2433 | 2415 | 2431 | 16 | | FU 05 | 2415 | 2474 | 2496 | 2498 | 2499 | 1 | | FU 09 | 2382 | 2440 | 2463 | 2468 | 2466 | - 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 59 | - 61 | - 63 | - 83 | - 68 | 15 | | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 3 | | FU 09 - 01 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 35 | - 18 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2886 | 2969 | 2976 | 3000 | 3070 | 70 | | LU 05 | 2912 | 2974 | 2994 | 3013 | 3008 | - 5 | | LU 09 | 2952 | 3010 | 3026 | 3039 | 3044 | 5 | | LU 01 - 05 | - | - 5 | - 18 | - 13 | 62 | 75 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 40 | - 36 | - 32 | - 26 | - 36 | - 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 66 | 41 | 50 | 39 | - 26 | - 65 | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. In Europe, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% crack spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis also fluctuated at a low level. The low - sulfur crack spread in Europe fluctuated at a low level [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory increased slightly [5][8]. - This week, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported, but the short - term upside space is limited [8]. - The global residual fuel oil market has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external crack spread depends on crude oil price fluctuations and feedstock premium levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it is still expected to fluctuate in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, but there is no driving force for now [8]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 327.47 | 323.91 | 332.23 | 333.06 | 332.36 | - 0.70 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 369.76 | 370.46 | 379.22 | 381.38 | 379.92 | - 1.46 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 8.26 | - 8.86 | - 8.91 | - 9.15 | - 9.50 | - 0.35 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 593.29 | 588.07 | 597.32 | 607.46 | 607.21 | - 0.25 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 223.53 | - 217.61 | - 218.10 | - 226.08 | - 227.29 | - 1.21 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.13 | 20.77 | 20.41 | 21.48 | 22.69 | 1.21 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 | 42.29 | 46.55 | 46.99 | 48.32 | 47.56 | - 0.76 |[3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 341.67 | 335.69 | 340.79 | 347.07 | 344.78 | - 2.29 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 352.34 | 342.69 | 347.66 | 352.82 | 352.53 | - 0.29 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 407.95 | 404.73 | 411.59 | 417.13 | 418.09 | 0.96 | | Singapore GO M1 | 79.76 | 78.63 | 79.11 | 79.71 | 80.63 | 0.92 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 6.01 | - 6.57 | - 6.90 | - 6.88 | - 7.53 | - 0.65 | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | - 182.27 | - 177.13 | - 173.82 | - 172.72 | - 178.57 | - 5.85 |[3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 339.30 | 332.35 | 337.57 | 344.15 | 343.65 | - 0.50 | | FOB VLSFO | 407.57 | 403.41 | 410.73 | 416.98 | 417.55 | 0.57 | | 380 Basis | - 3.00 | - 2.95 | - 2.80 | - 1.85 | - 1.60 | 0.25 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 3.3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 1.5 |[4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2403 | 2356 | 2413 | 2433 | 2415 | - 18 | | FU 05 | 2464 | 2415 | 2474 | 2496 | 2498 | 2 | | FU 09 | 2431 | 2382 | 2440 | 2463 | 2468 | 5 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 61 | - 59 | - 61 | - 63 | - 83 | - 20 | | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 30 | - 3 | | FU 09 - 01 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 23 |[4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2901 | 2886 | 2969 | 2976 | 3000 | 24 | | LU 05 | 2936 | 2912 | 2974 | 2994 | 3013 | 19 | | LU 09 | 2977 | 2952 | 3010 | 3026 | 3039 | 13 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 35 | - | - 5 | - 18 | - 13 | 5 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 41 | - 40 | - 36 | - 32 | - 26 | 6 | | LU 09 - 01 | 76 | 66 | 41 | 50 | 39 | - 11 |[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory increased slightly [3]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, it stopped production, providing support for the external low - sulfur fuel oil market, but the short - term upward space is limited. Global residual fuel oil enters the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread should pay attention to crude oil fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, but there is no driving force [4]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 325.12 to 335.28, a change of 3.05. The price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 368.94 to 383.22, a change of 4.00 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 337.69 to 348.22, a change of 7.43. The price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 404.54 to 419.72, a change of 8.13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased from 333.61 to 344.15, a change of 6.58. The FOB price of VLSFO increased from 404.59 to 416.98, a change of 6.25 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2384 to 2433, a change of 20. The price of FU 05 increased from 2444 to 2496, a change of 22. The price of FU 09 increased from 2412 to 2463, a change of 23 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 2864 to 2976, a change of 7. The price of LU 05 increased from 2912 to 2994, a change of 20. The price of LU 09 increased from 2956 to 3026, a change of 16 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. Report Core View - Steel prices are supported by the cost - end but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3]. - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non - mainstream mines as the main source of incremental supply, exerting significant supply pressure. However, iron ore also has upward drivers such as the expected bottoming of hot - metal production, so it is expected to trade in a range [21]. - As terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts, the valuation repair drive may be weakened [30]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys show both weak supply and demand. Their price increase space is limited, but they are also supported by costs [46]. - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming into production, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The spot - futures basis is high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be shut down for cold repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Price - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3116 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [4]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Beijing was 3130 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shenyang was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [8][10]. Basis and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 204 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day; the 05 basis was 192 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 10 basis was 151 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 10 basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 164 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 05 spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 spread was 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [8][10][14]. Iron Ore Price and Basis - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 796.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 09 contract was 756.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The 01 basis was - 2.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the 05 basis was 13.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the 09 basis was 34.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [22]. Fundamental Data - From December 19, 2025, the average daily hot - metal output was 226.55 tons, down 2.65 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port desilting volume was 313.45 tons, down 5.74 tons week - on - week; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 835 tons, down 4 tons week - on - week; the global shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, down 128 tons week - on - week; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2748.6 tons, down 140.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2646.7 tons, down 76.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, up 81.21 tons week - on - week; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8723.95 tons, down 110.25 tons week - on - week; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.09 days, down 0.1 days week - on - week [25]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 159 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 78 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The coke 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 142 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan. The on - disk coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, down 19.281 yuan; the main mine - coke ratio was 0.447, down 0.001; the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.797, up 0.004; the main coke - coking coal ratio was 1.544, down 0.021 [33]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No.5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged [37]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 23, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 48 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Qinghai was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shaanxi was 5320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Gansu was 5300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [47]. Silicon Manganese - On December 23, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 98 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 116 yuan/ton, unchanged. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia was 5570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangxi was 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48][49]. Soda Ash Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.51%; the 09 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74%; the 01 contract was 1117 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a change of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread was 115 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, with a change of 0.88%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with a change of - 3.33%. The basis of Shahe heavy soda was - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the basis of Qinghai heavy soda was - 249 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [61]. Spot Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the market price of heavy soda in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in South China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shahe was 1137 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The market price of light soda in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between heavy and light soda in most regions was 50 - 70 yuan/ton [61]. Glass Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1028 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.29%; the 09 contract was 1130 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the 01 contract was 938 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 77 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Hubei was 159 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 05 contract basis in Shahe was - 33 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was 59 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was - 130 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was - 41 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [84]. Sales and Production - From December 13 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was between 69 - 98%; in Hubei was between 75 - 109%; in East China was between 83 - 98%; in South China was between 95 - 107% [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) decreased from 2 on 11/20 to -2915 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2916 and a weekly change of -2931 [4][12]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) decreased from 42 on 11/20 to -2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2986 and a weekly change of -3081 [4][12]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) decreased from 22 on 11/20 to -2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2886 and a weekly change of -3031 [4][12]. - The 01 - 03 spread decreased from -42 on 11/20 to -30 on 12/22, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of -5 [4][12]. - The 02 - 03 spread increased from -27 on 11/20 to -12 on 12/22, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 10 [4][12]. - The 03 - 06 spread increased from -31 on 11/20 to -23 on 12/22, with a daily change of 7 and a weekly change of 21 [4][12]. 3.2. BU Main Contract (02) - The price of the BU main contract (02) increased from 3058 on 11/20 to 2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of 86 and a weekly change of 101 [4][12]. - The trading volume increased from 439,201 on 11/20 to 572,497 on 12/22, with a daily change of 105,545 and a weekly change of 2,082 [4][12]. - The open interest increased from 330,157 on 11/20 to 486,961 on 12/22, with a daily change of 11,963 and a weekly change of 14,856 [4][12]. - The contract value remained at 4,180 from 12/16 to 12/22, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. 3.3. Spot Market - The price of Brent crude oil increased from 63.4 on 11/20 to 60.5 on 12/22, with a daily change of 0.6 and a weekly change of -0.1 [4][12]. - The price of Jingbo asphalt decreased from 3020 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2950 and a weekly change of -2950 [4][12]. - The price of Shandong (non-Jingbo) asphalt decreased from 2980 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2830 and a weekly change of -2830 [4][12]. - The price of Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt decreased from 3100 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2900 and a weekly change of -2980 [4][12]. - The price of Foshan warehouse asphalt decreased from 3080 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2800 and a weekly change of -2930 [4][12]. 3.4. Profit - The asphalt Marrow profit decreased from 223 on 11/20 to 425 on 12/22, with a daily change of -21 and a weekly change of 4 [4][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. The European high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% crack spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual oil inventory remained basically flat, Fujairah's residual oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual oil inventory increased slightly [3]. - This week, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil market faced support, but the short - term upward space was limited [4]. - The global residual oil market entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external crack spreads should pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it remained volatile in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low, but there was no driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 316.99 to 333.50, a change of 9.59; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 364.37 to 380.56, a change of 10.10; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 8.87 to - 8.94, a change of - 0.08; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 588.11 to 601.54, a change of 13.47; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 223.74 to - 220.98, a change of - 3.37; the LGO - Brent M1 increased from 22.32 to 21.09, a change of 0.32; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased from 47.38 to 47.06, a change of 0.51 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 332.73 to 347.26, a change of 11.57; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 341.31 to 353.38, a change of 10.69; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 406.98 to 417.31, a change of 12.58; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 79.66 to 80.10, a change of 1.47; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 7.27 to - 6.81, a change of - 0.24; the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 182.50 to - 175.43, a change of 1.70 [1][7]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 328.39 to 337.57, a change of 5.22; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 407.01 to 410.73, a change of 7.32; the 380 basis changed from - 4.05 to - 2.80, a change of 0.15; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased from 2.3 to 5.0, a change of 2.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference increased from 3.7 to 8.6, a change of 2.1 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2368 to 2413, a change of 57; the price of FU 05 increased from 2431 to 2474, a change of 59; the price of FU 09 increased from 2400 to 2440, a change of 58; the FU 01 - 05 changed from - 63 to - 61, a change of - 2; the FU 05 - 09 changed from 31 to 34, a change of 1; the FU 09 - 01 changed from 32 to 27, a change of 1 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 2900 to 2969, a change of 83; the price of LU 05 increased from 2934 to 2974, a change of 62; the price of LU 09 increased from 2977 to 3010, a change of 58; the LU 01 - 05 changed from - 34 to - 5; the LU 05 - 09 changed from - 43 to - 36, a change of 4; the LU 09 - 01 changed from 77 to 41, a change of - 25 [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the 02 contract is high, and future performance depends on spot cargo trends. Short - term sentiment is positive due to spot improvement, but it's difficult to predict the peak height and time of January freight rates and subsequent price - drop rhythms. It's not recommended to enter the market at the current level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high. It may follow the spot market or recover the basis in the short term. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Short - selling off - season contracts is safer than short - or long - selling peak - season contracts. An overall positive spread strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [3]. 3. Detailed Summaries Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1631.0 with a 0.06% increase; EC2602 at 1871.8 with an 8.84% increase; EC2604 at 1166.8 with a 3.37% increase; EC2606 at 1320.0 with a 2.46% increase; EC2608 at 1486.2 with a 2.27% increase; EC2610 at 1061.0 with a 1.02% increase. The trading volumes were 100, 52704, 11708, 587, 256, and 1449 respectively, and the open interests were 1956, 36510, 20471, 2184, 1197, and 5401 respectively, with changes of - 27, 5003, 1634, - 36, - 91, and 466 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 was 464.2, with a day - on - day change of - 37.1 and a week - on - week change of - 79.8; EC2512 - 2602 was - 240.8, with a day - on - day change of - 151.1 and a week - on - week change of - 213.0; EC2502 - 2604 was 705.0, with a day - on - day change of 114.0 and a week - on - week change of 133.2 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The TEU index updated on 2025/12/22 was 1589.20, up 5.21% from the previous period. SCF on 2025/12/19 was 1533 dollars/TEU, down 0.3% from the previous period. CCFI on 2025/12/19 was 1473.9 points, up 0.23% from the previous period. NCFI on 2025/12/19 was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period [2]. - **European Line Spot Situation**: In Week 52, MSK's opening price was 2300 dollars (down 100 dollars from the previous week), and other companies mainly followed Week 51 prices. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures. All shipping companies are raising prices for January cabins. In Week 1, MSK's opening price was 2500 dollars (up 200 dollars from the previous week), and the prices of other shipping companies are yet to be announced [4]. News and Geopolitical Factors - The US plans to hold a Gaza reconstruction conference to promote a new round of cease - fire. The meeting may be held as early as next month, and Washington is a potential venue. Egypt and other locations are also being considered. The meeting is likely to be held after the "Peace Committee" is established [4]. - The Turkish Foreign Minister expects the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement to start early in the new year [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [4]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual oil inventory significantly decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual oil inventory slightly increased [4]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21, it stopped production, and the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upward space was limited [5]. - Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels in the external cracking spread. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it remained volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but there was no driver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 320.55 | 316.99 | 325.12 | 327.47 | 323.91 | -3.56 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 375.22 | 364.37 | 368.94 | 369.76 | 370.46 | 0.70 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -9.66 | -8.87 | -8.40 | -8.26 | -8.86 | -0.60 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 602.86 | 588.11 | 594.14 | 593.29 | 588.07 | -5.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -227.64 | -223.74 | -225.20 | -223.53 | -217.61 | 5.92 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.59 | 22.32 | 22.33 | 22.13 | 20.77 | -1.36 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 54.67 | 47.38 | 43.82 | 42.29 | 46.55 | 4.26 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 337.68 | 332.73 | 337.69 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 344.37 | 341.31 | 344.87 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 415.04 | 406.98 | 404.54 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 80.91 | 79.66 | 78.95 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.78 | -7.27 | -6.18 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -183.69 | -182.50 | -179.69 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 333.35 | 328.39 | 333.61 | 339.30 | 332.35 | -6.95 | | FOB VLSFO | 415.10 | 407.01 | 404.59 | 407.57 | 403.41 | -4.16 | | 380 Basis | -3.00 | -4.05 | -3.25 | -3.00 | -2.95 | 0.05 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | -0.4 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2417 | 2368 | 2384 | 2403 | 2356 | -47 | | FU 05 | 2474 | 2431 | 2444 | 2464 | 2415 | -49 | | FU 09 | 2445 | 2400 | 2412 | 2431 | 2382 | -49 | | FU 01 - 05 | -57 | -63 | -60 | -61 | -59 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 0 | | FU 09 - 01 | 28 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 26 | -2 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2988 | 2900 | 2864 | 2901 | 2886 | -15 | | LU 05 | 3003 | 2934 | 2912 | 2936 | 2912 | -24 | | LU 09 | 3039 | 2977 | 2956 | 2977 | 2952 | -25 | | LU 01 - 05 | -15 | -34 | -48 | -35 | -26 | 9 | | LU 05 - 09 | -36 | -43 | -44 | -41 | -40 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | 51 | 77 | 92 | 76 | 66 | -10 | [4] Fuel Oil Morning Report Data | Date | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Value | 341.67 | 335.69 | -5.98 | | Value | 352.34 | 342.69 | -9.65 | | Value | 407.95 | 404.73 | -3.22 | | Value | 79.76 | 78.63 | -1.13 | | Value | -6.01 | -6.57 | -0.56 | | Value | -182.27 | -177.13 | 5.14 | [8]