Core Insights - The research institution Wrightson ICAP indicates that signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market may lead the Federal Reserve to halt its balance sheet reduction in the upcoming interest rate decision [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction, with recent slight fluctuations in the repurchase market serving as a key signal [1][2] - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury securities to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1][2] - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the supply of short-term Treasury securities in the market may decrease by approximately $20 billion per month [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The research institution Wrightson ICAP indicates that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of its balance sheet reduction next week due to signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt the reduction of its bond holdings in the upcoming interest rate decision [1][2]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction [1][2]. - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1][2]. Group 2: Market Implications - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the supply of short-term government bonds in the market may decrease by approximately $20 billion per month [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market may lead the Federal Reserve to announce the cessation of its balance sheet reduction in the upcoming interest rate decision [1] Group 1 - Economists at Wrightson ICAP indicate that the slight fluctuations in the repurchase market last week could serve as a key signal for the Federal Reserve [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction [1] - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1] Group 2 - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the monthly supply of short-term Treasury securities may decrease by approximately $20 billion [1]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the competition for "asset pricing power" between China and the United States, with gold and silver prices rising alongside the stability of the US stock market [2][4][5] - The US stock market's resilience is largely supported by the "AI narrative," which has inflated tech stock valuations despite weakening economic indicators [4][5] - Gold prices are linked to the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent surges driven by fears of the Fed losing its independence and the potential devaluation of the dollar [7][20] Group 2 - China's control over rare earth elements is significant not for their immediate value but for their critical role in the semiconductor supply chain, which could disrupt US tech valuations [9][11][16] - The semiconductor industry is highly sensitive to supply chain disruptions, and rare earths are essential materials that cannot be easily substituted [11][13] - China's recent rare earth regulations introduce uncertainty into the supply chain, impacting US tech companies' valuations due to the unpredictability of supply [13][16] Group 3 - The US is responding to China's actions by potentially increasing monetary supply to maintain financial asset pricing power, which could lead to inflation [18][20] - The US government's budget impasse allows for increased debt issuance, which may further complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to manage monetary policy independently [18][20] - China's recent shipping fee regulations target US inflation indirectly, as increased costs will ultimately affect American consumers and could hinder the US's monetary strategies [23][26] Group 4 - China's strategy is to leverage its control over physical assets like rare earths and shipping to challenge US financial asset pricing power [29][41] - The competition is fundamentally a race against time, with China aiming to stabilize its debt and transition its economy within five years while the US seeks to disrupt this process [32][37] - The ongoing struggle for pricing power will shape the economic landscape over the next decade, with both nations vying for dominance in asset valuation [39][41]

我问你个问题，你觉不觉得最近这市场有点不正常？ 明明消息还没落地，资金就像提前排队买票一样，生怕错过什么大事。结果一看，美联储这次真不是光降息的问题，鲍威尔那句"准备结束缩 表"，分量比降息还重。 降息25个基点本来就够市场嗨一阵，结果再加个结束缩表。等于是美联储同时踩油门和放刹车松一脚，直接给市场打了个"信心强心针"。 我脑子里当时只有一个念头：这操作，熟悉。 我当时看到那行字，整个人怔了一下。 我翻了下美联储官网数据，从2022年开始，他们缩表规模已经超过1万亿美元。现在突然停，这背后说明什么？要么是经济真扛不住了，要么是 金融系统出了他们担心的问题。路透社的数据也显示，美国9月新增非农就业人数只有13.6万人，创下半年新低，失业率从3.8%升到3.9%。看着 数字不大，但在美国那可是警钟。 2019年他们也干过类似的事，当时是降息三次加停缩表，美股就一路往上飙。标普500那年涨了28.9%，连A股都被带着走了一波。今年这套动 作，几乎照搬，只不过背景更危险——通胀还没下去。 美国劳工部公布的9月CPI同比上涨3.4%，核心CPI也有3.7%。这水平，说实话，离他们目标的2%还差一大截。按理说，不该这么快 ...

南华期货外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 —— 汇率依旧"稳"字当头 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月19日 主要观点 截至2025年10月19日，尽管美国联邦政府停摆已超过两周，并导致多项关键经济数据延迟发布，但美元 指数却在近期并未大幅下跌。我们认为，这一现象主要受到三方面因素的共同驱动：首先，数据真空期暂时 掩盖了可能利空美元的因素，为美元提供了缓冲；其次，在主要非美货币表现更为疲软的"比差逻辑"下， 例如日本政局变动引发的日元大幅贬值以及欧元区经济疲软和法国政治僵局拖累欧元，美元获得了被动支 撑；最后，政府停摆等地缘政治风险推升了市场的避险情绪，促使资金流向美元资产。从彭博编制的"3个月 美元兑一篮子货币25D RR隐含波动率"指标可观察到关键线索：在G7经济体汇率"比差逻辑"的主导下， 市场配置偏好从非美货币转向黄金、白银等商品类资产，这种资产再配置行为间接为美元提供了支撑，成为 美元指数短期坚挺的重要推手。在此背景下，美元兑人民币汇率的走势则呈现出不同的逻辑。中国央行在 2025年第三季度货币政策例会中明确强调，将"综合施策，增强 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - Bond market yields generally declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down by 3 basis points [2] - In the stock market, major global indices saw mixed results, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 1.7%, 1.6%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Commodity prices showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude down by 7.3% and 6.4% respectively, while gold prices rose by 5.8% [2] - The U.S. dollar index weakened by 0.3% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is considering halting its balance sheet reduction, with Chairman Powell indicating that reserves are currently sufficient and nearing the level required to stop the reduction [4] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that the monetary policy and economy are in good condition, but further rate cuts cannot be ruled out due to changing circumstances [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government remains shut down, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, leading to potential layoffs of over 10,000 federal employees [9] - The NAHB housing market index rose to 37, the highest since April, driven by declining mortgage rates, while small business optimism fell to 98.8, a three-month low [9] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated stable economic activity, with some regions expressing concerns about the risks posed by the government shutdown [10] - Regional banks are facing increased risks, as Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp reported provisions for bad loans, raising concerns about the credit system [10] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary signaled a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade tensions, suggesting that additional tariffs are not a predetermined option [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The IMF has adjusted its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, while noting that U.S. inflation is expected to remain above target levels [17] - Eurozone industrial production showed a month-on-month decline of 1.2% in August, with major economies like Germany, Italy, and France experiencing decreases [17] - Japan's industrial output fell by 1.5% in August, marking the second consecutive month of decline, influenced by U.S. trade policy uncertainties and weak demand [17]

昨天晚上刷手机，看到一条新闻差点让我从沙发上蹦起来——美联储主席鲍威尔宣布要停止缩表了！ 可能有朋友要问了，缩表听起来挺专业，跟咱们普通人有啥关系？ 更要命的是经济数据。2025年美国GDP增速预期才1.6%，失业率要升到4.5%。你品品这数字，经济明显疲软了啊！这时候还继续抽水，不是要把 美国经济往死里整吗？ 说实话，这消息来得有点猝不及防。要知道，过去三年美联储就像个狠心的管家，拿着大剪刀咔咔咔，硬生生把自己的资产负债表从9万亿美元 砍到了6.6万亿。现在突然说要停手，这背后到底发生了什么？ 打个比方吧，你可以把美联储想象成全球金融市场的"大水龙头"。以前疫情那会儿，为了救经济，这水龙头开得哗哗的，钱像自来水一样往外 流。结果呢？钱多了就不值钱了，通胀一路飙到6.2%，创了30年新高！ 到了2022年中，美联储一看不行啊，再这么下去美元都要变废纸了。于是开始"拧紧水龙头"，专业说法就叫缩表——把市面上流通的钱收回来， 让钱变得更值钱。 这招确实挺狠的。三年时间，硬是从市场上抽走了2.4万亿美元！ 好端端的，为啥突然就不抽了？ 要我说，鲍威尔这次是真的扛不住了。 你想啊，抽水抽得太猛会出啥问题？银行的钱不够 ...

| 英伟达公司 NASDAQ:NVDA NVIDIA Corp. | | | | | * 添加自选 | 在APP中查看 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 180.03 ↓ -8.29(-4.40%) 实时标准版 14.04.00PM EDT | | | 极速版 ◆ | ESG 成交量:4,769,328 | 帝后:181.17 1.14(0.63%) | | | | | | | | Oct 14 05:07PM EDT | | | 详细行情 | | | 基本面摘要 | | | | | 开盘: 184.77 前收盘: | | 188.32 | 市盈室: | 50.86 市值: | 43747.29亿 | | | 成交量: | 2.03亿 区间: | 179.70-184.80 | 每股收益: | 3.54 股本: | 243.00亿 | | | 10日均量: | 1.72亿 52周区间: | 86.60-195.62 | 贝塔圣教: | -- 股鳥/收益率: | 0.01/ -- | | | 分时 | 5日 年线 YTD | 日K 高K | 月K 年 ...

米兰强调美联储必须保持政治中立与专业聚焦。他表示："美联储必须被视为一个诚实的参与者，绝不 能卷入气候变化、种族政治等问题。"他还呼吁，"美联储官员必须平等对待所有政府政策，而不仅仅是 强调关税"，并补充道："美联储必须讨论所有政府政策，否则一概不谈。" 新华财经北京10月16日电美联储理事米兰16日直言当前货币政策"过于紧缩"，并呼吁在10月28日至29日 的FOMC会议上降息50个基点，以应对再度浮现的经济不确定性。 米兰强调："政策维持紧缩的时间越长，下行风险越大。"他指出，由于中性利率迅速上升，今年货币政 策实际上已收紧约1.5个百分点。尽管美国经济"相当不错"，但他警告，"25个基点的降息导致利率调整 速度慢于实际需求"，难以有效缓冲潜在冲击。 米兰主张货币政策应"以预测为导向，而非以数据为导向"。他坦言："有政府数据会好得多，利用替代 数据追踪通胀颇具挑战性。"这一立场与其对当前政策节奏的批评相呼应——他认为仅依赖滞后数据可 能导致反应迟缓。 米兰重申支持本月大幅降息的理由："如果货币政策维持目前的紧缩水平，而经济又遭受类似冲击，这 将显著放大该冲击的负面影响。"他提及"上周出现的风险"增加了降息 ...