Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: January 29, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Trump's statement on the US dollar intensified the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, and the market's bullish sentiment increased during the day, causing Shanghai copper to recover its overnight losses. The spot price rose by 290 to 101,660, and the discount narrowed by 25 to 240. The spot import loss narrowed to around 430. The LME 0 - 3 contango widened to 93.8. The continuous inventory build - up in the LME market led to the collapse of the local price difference structure. The C - L spread was - 6, and there was further pressure on LME inventory build - up. COMEX inventory was also rising continuously. It is expected that the pressure on the domestic and foreign spot markets will increase in the short term. However, current copper prices are more affected by macro factors. With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, it is widely expected that the Fed will pause rate cuts. Trump's statement on the US dollar and the change of the Fed chairman are putting pressure on the US dollar. It is expected that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the background of a weak US dollar [11] Group 3: Industry News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that it agreed to register the "Jiangtong" brand Grade A copper produced by Jiangtong Guoxing (Yantai) Copper Co., Ltd. on the exchange. The registered production capacity is 180,000 tons, and the standard price is implemented. As of the announcement date, the above products can be used for the performance and delivery of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper futures contracts [11] - A report released by Bain & Company shows that mining companies are using mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a core growth strategy, which is driving the transaction market in Canada to reach its highest level in more than a decade. This strategic shift is due to multiple pressures faced by enterprises: continuously rising capital costs, lengthening development cycles of mining projects, and increasingly fierce market competition for high - quality mining assets. These three factors are reshaping the way mining enterprises achieve growth and improve operational efficiency. Bain & Company estimates that the number of global mining transactions with a scale of over $500 million in 2025 will increase by about 45% compared to 2024. Mining enterprises are choosing to achieve scale expansion and enhance operational resilience through mergers and acquisitions rather than investing in new greenfield development projects. The report also predicts that the next round of mining M&A transactions will be larger in scale and more complex in structure, and the success or failure of M&A operations will be a key factor in determining whether an enterprise can gain an advantage in the long - term in the industry [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, and the focus range is 14 - 15 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 144,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,740 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,235 dollars/ton, a decrease of 355 dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 27,881 hands, a decrease of 12,238 hands [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of Shanghai nickel is - 70,458 hands, a decrease of 1,190 hands; the LME nickel inventory is 285,726 tons, an increase of 174 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 50,794 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,788 tons, unchanged [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 44,822 tons, an increase of 2,323 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 146,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 146,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 214.32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.36 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,228.62 million tons, a decrease of 44.76 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.72 million tons, a decrease of 1.45 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 53.93 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years [3]. - The US government shutdown is approaching, Trump talked with the governor of Minnesota and agreed to consider reducing the number of ICE [3]. - Fed officials are expected to pause rate cuts this week. There are obvious differences among officials on whether and when to continue rate cuts in the future [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years. The US dollar has fallen to a four - year low [3]. - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, and the domestic trade base price is expected to rise significantly, causing concerns about tight raw material supply [3]. - On the smelting side, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and profitable production margins, the refined nickel output is expected to rise again [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless steel plants have improved, and the production schedule is expected to be high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly buys on dips. The spot premium is at a high level, and the overseas LME inventory continues to increase [3]. - Technically, the position is decreasing and the price is adjusting, and the long - position sentiment is cautious [3].

海外方面，美国1月消费者信心指数环比下降9.7点至84.5，创2014年以来新低，显示美国消费者对经济 前景信心严重不足，预示国内消费市场承压，影响经济增长预期。同时，美国总统特朗普称美元表现良 好、不担心下跌，还表示可让美元如悠悠球般波动，其言论加剧市场对美元走势的不确定性担忧，美元 指数一度跌超1%至95.7905，创近四年新低。因锌等基本金属以美元计价，美元弱势走低直接提升其估 值，提振锌价上行。 基本面方面，国内锌市供需双弱格局延续。供应端，国内锌精矿现货加工费低位运行，冶炼厂加工费跌 破成本线，生产利润受挤压，积极性受挫，供应偏紧，为锌价提供有力支撑。目前，国内主流锌精矿加 工费在1100 - 1500元/金属吨区间。进口矿加工费低位震荡，不过沪伦比值回正，采购进口矿经济性提 升，采购情绪升温，成交及矿山招标增多，主流成交在30 - 40美元/干吨区间波动，但弱势加工费仍加 大冶炼厂生产压力，限制精炼锌产出。需求端，近期国内需求疲软，临近春节，部分下游企业陆续放 假，对锌需求预期欠佳。月初以来，国内精炼锌社会库存震荡，截至周一，全国主要市场锌锭库存为 10.99万吨，较1月22日增加0.13万吨，增 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin futures opening at 447,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 462,000.00 CNY, marking a 2.05% increase [1] - The current tin market is exhibiting a strong upward trend, with various institutions providing insights on future price movements [2] Group 2 - Hualian Futures noted that the domestic economy shows resilience, with increased demand from the semiconductor and new energy vehicle sectors, while overseas uncertainties remain, and there are expectations for future interest rate cuts [2] - Zhonghui Futures indicated that supply constraints from overseas tin mines persist, while domestic smelting plants are operating steadily; however, high prices are suppressing downstream replenishment demand, leading to a balanced supply and demand situation [2] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures analyzed that while tin ore supply has improved month-on-month, the overall tight supply situation has not significantly changed, and the market is experiencing a slow recovery in inventories [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

近期黄金（XAU/USD）价格在触及历史高点后出现小幅回落，回调过程中持续吸引新的买盘入场，市场需求保持旺盛。 美联储此次货币政策决议涉及未来利率路径，相关表态可能影响美元走势，进而传导至黄金价格。市场普遍预期央行今年仍有两次降息可能，这一预期此前 与美元走弱相关，成为黄金价格上涨的背景之一。 美国近期公布的部分经济数据超出市场预期。美国人口普查局周一数据显示，11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，高于预期的0.5%；剔除运输类别的核心订单 环比增长0.5%，剔除国防订单后增幅达6.6%。耐用品订单增长反映美国相关行业需求情况，其对黄金市场的影响程度受到关注。 截至周二亚洲交易时段，金价仍处于5100美元关口下方，回调幅度有限，未改变前期上行格局。多重因素对黄金价格构成支撑，短期存在潜在阻力，但价格 上行路径仍受到关注。 各国央行持续购金是支撑黄金价格的因素之一。部分主要国家央行近期积极购入黄金，例如中国人民银行12月实现连续第14个月增持黄金，波兰国家银行、 印度储备银行和巴西中央银行在2025年末至2026年初也保持购金节奏。央行购金行为增加了黄金市场需求，巩固了其储备资产地位。 零售端需求稳步提升及黄金投资 ...

1月27日回溯1月26日(周一)行情，澳元兑美元强势站上0.6920，走势偏强格局明确。这波上涨核心由美 元整体走软推动，上周末纽约联储核查美日汇率的消息，被交易员解读为潜在干预信号，引发美元多头 平仓、日元回补操作，进而拖累美元全品种走弱，间接助推澳元上行。 需注意的是，此类波动由仓位调整与流动性变化主导，缺乏基本面根本性支撑，行情来得快去得也快， 情绪降温后大概率出现修正，最终能否完全回吐，取决于后续美元能否获得数据或政策信号支撑。当前 市场焦点已转向本周三美联储议息会议，普遍预期维持利率不变，若会议措辞中性无极端导向，美元将 回归数据主导定价，2月非农报告等密集数据才是利率路径判断的关键节点。 澳元自身上涨动力强劲，上周亮眼的澳大利亚就业数据，点燃市场对澳洲联储加息的预期，当前定价已 反映63%的下次会议加息概率。这一预期转变，叠加澳洲联储近期表态趋紧、提及通胀黏性下不排除 2026年加息，进一步强化了澳元强势基础。 本周澳大利亚季度通胀报告将成为关键试金石：若通胀回落，加息预期大概率降温，澳元面临获利盘抛 售压力；若通胀高企，则印证鹰派定价合理性，澳元利差优势凸显，强势有望延续。 技术面来看，澳元兑美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has been declining for three consecutive trading days, nearing its lowest level since 2022, influenced by rising bearish sentiment in the options market and geopolitical tensions [1][10]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.6%, reaching its lowest level since September of the previous year, affected by trade tensions with Canada and speculation about potential US military action against Iranian leadership [1][10]. - The next critical support level for the dollar is the September 17 low of 1183.70; a drop below this level would mark the dollar's weakest performance since March 2022 [2][11]. - The premium for betting against the dollar has reached record highs, indicating that options traders are increasingly factoring in the risk of the US government being tolerant or even supportive of a weaker dollar [2][11]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Domestic Factors - The risk of a partial US government shutdown is also exerting pressure on the dollar, as increasing domestic political tensions may lead investors to hedge or reduce their exposure to dollar assets [3][12]. - Key upcoming events for the US market include the Federal Reserve meeting in January and the potential announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Donald Trump [3][13]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The USD/JPY pair dropped 1.5% to 153.31, marking its lowest level since November 7 [4][13]. - The euro and pound continued to gain against the dollar, with the EUR/USD rising 0.7% to a high of 1.1907 and the GBP/USD increasing 0.3% to 1.3678 [6][7][13]. - The USD/CAD reversed its downward trend, increasing by 0.1% to 1.3716, while the USD/CHF fell 0.4% to 0.7769, remaining at its lowest level since 2015 [8][9][14].

2026.01. 26 本文字数：2438，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 进入2026年，美国宏观经济政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：一是美国最高法院对总统关税权力的最 终裁决；二是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了代价昂贵的"空窗期"。 与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，贝莱德高管里德（Rick Rieder）当前被视为领跑 者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量，全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国策 略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境后， 他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 关税案悬而未决 去年11月5日，美国最高法院就美国总统特朗普是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施关税 一案听取了首轮口头辩论。彼时，摩根大通对政治策略师的调查显示，美国政府依据IEEPA征收的关税在 2025年底前被推翻的概率高达70%。然而，最高法院至今仍未作 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——国际金价冲破5000美元！7年涨了280%，什么时候才见顶？专家：关键还 看美元，重点关注国际货币体系、降息和科技革命 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，蓝帆医疗1月26日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届第三十八次董事会会议于2026年1月26日 在公司第一会议室以现场及通讯表决相结合的方式召开。会议审议了《关于向下修正"蓝帆转债"转股价 格的议案》等文件。 ...