冰冻三尺，非一日之寒，水滴石穿，非一日之功，投资也是同样的道理，稳中求进不可操之过急。哪怕你现在的单子出现了亏损或是套单，也不用过于焦 虑，只要方向对了，选择正确，那么失去的终将会再回来，聪明的人结伴而行，愚钝的人固步自封。不管现在看文章的你是处于盈利还是亏损状态，都需要 保持一颗平常心来对待，胜不骄败不馁。人生有好有坏，有进也有退，如何面对，都取决于我们的心态，不同的心境会有不同的结果，你笑天是蓝的，你哭 天是阴的。一个好的心态是走好投资之路的指南针。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：WTI原油在周三亚洲时段交投于58.40美元附近，市场情绪在强劲美元与供应恢复的双重压力下趋于谨慎。<美国发布的最新就业岗位数据 明显好于预期，使美元出现阶段性反弹，直接削弱以美元计价的大宗商品价格表现。从美国劳工统计局发布的最新JOLTS报告来看，9月和10月职位空缺分 别达到765.8万和767万，均高于市场预期，显示美国劳动力市场仍具韧性。从市场结构来看，油价短期波动更多是消息驱动，但中期仍存在两大主线：其一 是美国劳动力及经济数据是否持续强势，从而支撑美元；其二是供应侧事件频繁导致的不确定性。库存数据的"改善预 ...

私人投资管理公司Neuberger Berman财富管理部门首席投资官Shannon Saccoci在最新备忘录中表示：无 论本周美联储是否降息，利率终将下行，并推动美国经济重新加速，为风险资产打开上涨空间。她指 出，尽管市场对12月10日美联储是否降息25个基点的预期在过去几周剧烈摇摆，但真正关键的是美联储 整体宽松的政策倾向——这对美国经济和风险市场具有建设性意义。Saccocia强调，尽管降息时机和幅 度的风险依然存在，但这并不会改变最终目的地：明年下半年联邦基金利率将更低、更宽松。 摘要周三(12月10日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4204一线下方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4200.49美元/ 盎司，下跌0.15%，最高触及4218.68美元/盎司，最低下探4199.73美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向下跌走势。 周三(12月10日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4204一线下方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4200.49美元/盎 司，下跌0.15%，最高触及4218.68美元/盎司，最低下探4199.73美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 下跌走势。 【要闻速递】 分析师尼尔·基恩在一份报告中表示，围绕周三 ...

Seasonal Demand Shifts: The conclusion of the Diwali festival in India, a major global gold consumer, also contributed to a reduction in physical demand, removing one of the key supporting tailwinds for the price.Uncertainty Over Federal Reserve Policy: While expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts initially fueled gold's rally, ongoing uncertainty and a lack of precise data (partially due to a U.S. government shutdown in late fall) have contributed to market indecisiveness. The CME Group' ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 13498, with an opening price of 13631 CNY/kg and a current price of 13563 CNY/kg, reflecting an increase of 0.48% [1] - The highest price reached was 13882 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 13450 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The overall trend for silver TD remains bullish despite a slight pullback, with support levels identified between 13000-13500 and resistance levels between 13800-14000 [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett is reported as the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with potential implications for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [2] - The timeline suggests that Hassett's nomination could be announced by Christmas, with the earliest he could officially take over being June 2026 [2] - The first quarter following the new chair's nomination is critical for market expectations, with potential for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to experience fluctuations based on the new chair's stance [2]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国地产基金百人会） 著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，12月4日在接受彭博社以及日前和CNBC的对话中，谈及了美 联储降息、人民币汇率、AI科技等话题，并且对2026年的市场行情进行了展望。 洪灝指出，无论谁接任美联储主席，都将面临回购市场流动性紧张的局面，因此降息并扩表是必然选 择。 市场预期未来一年将有多次降息， 贵金属价格已反映宽松预期，他预测白银可能涨至80-100美元/盎司。 对于如火如荼的AI产业，洪灝则指出了一则风险，如果企业依赖信贷融资进行资本支出将是未来一个 潜在问题。 洪灝表示，美元处于长期下行趋势，大宗商品将因美元走弱和通胀预期保持强势。 人民币实际有效汇率被低估，有望升值至6.9以下，带动中国资产重估，明年A股可能表现优于H股。 此外，房地产市场调整已持续近五年，但行业仍需时间出清，救助规模或需约10万亿元。 展望2026年，洪灝表示，明年作为五年规划首年，政策支持力度可能加大，流动性环境改善，中国市场 或有望上涨20%以上。 投资报（liulishidian）整理精选了洪灝分享的精华内容如下： 无论谁出任美联储主席 降息并扩表是必然选择 主持人：围绕美联储 ...

保德信固定收益联席首席投资官Gregory Peters近日分享最新市场展望报告称，全球市场呈现出韧性与 脆弱性并存的格局。全球央行政策走向方面，报告认为，各国央行正谨慎放宽政策。美联储已重启降 息，但仍受制于居高不下的通胀以及市场对其政策公信力的担忧。欧洲央行同样面临两难抉择，需在不 均衡的经济增长与积极财政政策之间寻求平衡。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）保德信固定收益联席首席投资官Gregory Peters近日分享最新市场 展望报告称，全球市场呈现出韧性与脆弱性并存的格局。 具体来看，经济增长虽有所放缓，但并未陷入停滞，主要受结构性推动因素支撑；不过，周期性阻力仍 然存在。通胀依然高于目标水平，令美联储的政策方向更加复杂。人工智能投资热潮成为抵消消费疲软 的重要力量，然而劳动力市场停滞与关税推升成本，为后续经济前景增添了不确定性。 全球央行政策走向方面，报告认为，各国央行正谨慎放宽政策。美联储已重启降息，但仍受制于居高不 下的通胀以及市场对其政策公信力的担忧。欧洲央行同样面临两难抉择，需在不均衡的经济增长与积极 财政政策之间寻求平衡。 关于美元，报告认为，美元持续承压。美元过去曾受益于美国"例外论 ...

受美联储偏鸽预期和美元疲软影响，黄金欧洲盘延续温和上行，但整体仍处本周区间震荡内。就业数据 稳健未削弱市场降息押注，美元承压格局明显。即将公布的 PCE 数据将决定金价能否突破 4250–4300 区间，短线交易以谨慎观望为主，中期走势仍关注政策预期和通胀演变。 上方阻力：4245–4250 美元为短期关键阻力，多次试探未破；突破后目标 4277–4278 美元，进一 步站稳可看向 4300 整数关口。 下方支撑：4163–4164 美元为短线支撑，若跌破，4100–4090 区间提供更强结构性支撑，包括 4H 200EMA 和上升趋势线，跌破将增加下行压力。 PCE 数据公布前，不宜追高，建议围绕区间观察突破方向。 美元走势仍主导黄金节奏，地缘风险为阶段性支撑。 若数据强化降息预期，黄金可能测试 4300 区域；若通胀意外走高，则需警惕回落至 4160 区间。 劳动力市场表现亮眼：Challenger 报告显示，美国 11 月计划裁员人数环比下降 53%，首次申请失业救 济人数降至 19.1 万，创三年多新低。尽管就业稳健，市场对美联储下周降息 25 个基点的押注仍保持在 高位（概率超过 85%）。说明投资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in silver prices, with a notable decline of 2.00% as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - The ADP report reveals a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for November, which is significantly lower than the revised increase of 47,000 from the previous month and below market expectations of a 5,000 increase, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 71% to nearly 89% in just one week, indicating a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar in the short term [1] Group 2 - Despite a drop to a low of $57.54, the upward trend in silver prices remains intact, although a mild divergence between price movement and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may signal a potential pullback [2] - Should a pullback occur, the bearish targets will first focus on the support area transformed from the previous resistance trend line, specifically between $53.80 and $54.00, followed by testing the 50-day moving average at $50.25 [2] Group 3 - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported an increase in holdings by 135.4 tons, bringing the total holdings to 15,998.55 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a combination of strong domestic economic performance and a decline in the USD, with the RMB's middle rate rising significantly this year [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On December 4, the People's Bank of China announced an increase in the RMB middle rate against the USD by 21 basis points to 7.0733, marking a new high in over a year [1]. - The onshore and offshore RMB both reached new highs in appreciation against the USD since October 2024, with an approximate increase of 1000 basis points year-to-date [1][3]. - As of the report, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.06079 against the USD, while the spot rate was at 7.0680 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two factors: strong domestic economic trends and a significant decline in the USD [3]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's strength is also supported by better-than-expected export performance and a robust domestic capital market since July [3]. - The market anticipates that the RMB will continue to operate in a strong range in the short term, with a focus on USD trends and domestic economic policies [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions and Implications - The market currently estimates an 89% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the upcoming meeting, which could further influence the RMB's strength [4]. - The strengthening RMB is expected to boost domestic capital market confidence, positively impacting the stock market [4]. - Analysts predict that the RMB could break the 7 mark against the USD, with potential for further appreciation, possibly reaching 6.95 by the end of 2026 [4][5].

人民币对美元即期汇率最高达7.0620，刷新去年10月中旬以来新高，截至发稿，报7.0623。 12月3日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0754 元，较上个交易日调高30个基点，创下2024年10月14日以来新高。 来源：江南都市报 人民币对美元汇率延续升值势头！ 继升破7.07关口后，12月3日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.05625，创2024年10月9日以来新高。截至发 稿，报7.05825。 | < W | | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | | | 7.05825 | | 前收 | 7.06696 | 开盘 | 7.06725 | | -0.00867 -0.12% | | 卖品 | 7.05850 | 买入 | 7.05800 | | 最高 | 7.06773 | 今年来 | -3.80% | 20日 | -1.08% | | 最低 | 7.05625 | 10日 | -0.74% | 60日 | -0.9 ...