1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and warming consumption, with industrial inventory being depleted. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0345. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars slightly converge. The suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 92,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,640 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,717 dollars/ton, a decrease of 212.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 204,413 lots, an increase of 3,232 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 63,017 lots, an increase of 8,236 lots. The LME copper inventory is 342,350 tons, an increase of 6,925 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 411,121 tons, a decrease of 22,337 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 45,675 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 274,115 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 588,704 short tons, a decrease of 100 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,005 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 93,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,705 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 53.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 4 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan. The LME copper spot - forward spread (0 - 3) is - 94.77 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.35 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, a decrease of 31.28 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 67.32 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 6.93 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 86,100 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 170 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 86,800 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 170 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 63,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 79,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, an increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.211 billion yuan, a decrease of 731.76 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, an increase of 415,345,500 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 21.32%, an increase of 1.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 34.17%, an increase of 0.34%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 24.74%, a decrease of 0.0157. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, a decrease of 0.0345 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the China Development Forum 2026 and delivered a keynote speech, emphasizing China's competitive advantages in relevant industries and the importance of fair competition. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech on "China's High - quality Development and Global Economic Rebalancing", stating that the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance. Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the US - China Business Council delegation, hoping to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations. Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said that fiscal policy will focus more on investing in people and promoting consumption, with measures such as issuing 250 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and setting up a 100 - billion - yuan special fund [2]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 23, 2026 [1] - **Report Type**: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report expects the stainless steel futures price to fluctuate and adjust, and suggests paying attention to the MA10 pressure. The raw material supply is likely to shrink, which will put pressure on ferronickel production. The production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, but the increase in ferronickel prices has raised the cost support. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and exports will face pressure due to policy adjustments. The current inventory level is basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is controllable. With the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, it is gradually entering the de - stocking cycle. Technically, the position is stable, the price is adjusting, and both long and short positions are trading cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The 05 - 06 contract spread is 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 176 lots, a decrease of 1,136 lots. The main contract position is 118,436 lots, a decrease of 2,888 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 41,725 tons, an increase of 827 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The basis is 435 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 137,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,105 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly production of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,200 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly production of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units. The monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain sufficient liquidity. The Chinese Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones and increase inclusive policies directly targeting consumers. Trump threatened Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and destroy its power plants. Sources said the US is planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves", and an Israeli facility was "directly hit" by an Iranian missile [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (March 16 - March 20), the bond market's interest rate curve became steeper, with the medium - short end being stronger and the long end being weaker and volatile. The spread of short - duration and weak - quality bonds compressed, and the spread of Tier 2 capital bonds slightly converged. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y treasury bond spreads reached 57BP and 56BP respectively, at a high level in recent years [2][10]. - The central bank's downplaying of the interest rate cut expectation restricts the long - end trend market, while the short - end has advanced under the expectation of loose funds and inter - bank self - discipline, but there may be fluctuations later, and the probability of a significant increase is limited. The current state of long - short end segmentation will not last forever, and there are potential breaking points in the market [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Central Bank's Downplaying of Interest Rate Cut Expectation Restricts the Long - End Trend Market - Since January, the long - end interest rate recovery was mainly driven by large - scale allocation funds. The central bank tilted towards stabilizing growth at the beginning of the year, but inflation risks have not been eliminated, and non - bank institutions are hesitant [10]. - After the recent sharp rise in oil prices, the market has started to price in future inflation paths in advance. In both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, PPI is expected to return to around 0 or turn positive in March, with the high point around June. The high point of CPI year - on - year will appear in May - June, and in the pessimistic scenario, the high point may approach 2.5% [14]. - The central bank has downplayed the expectation of interest rate cuts since March. It emphasizes the balance between various goals and no longer mentions that the alleviation of bank interest margin pressure creates space for interest rate cuts. In the recent meeting, it only mentioned guiding and regulating the interest rate level according to economic and financial situations, which may be related to inflation uncertainty [15][19]. - The economic data from January to February exceeded market expectations, but the data improvement was affected by multiple factors. The overall high growth of the data in January - February relieved the pressure on GDP growth to maintain 4.5% in Q1, which may make the central bank tend to wait and see, resulting in a lack of a long - end trend market [21][23]. 3.2 Short - End Races Ahead under Loose Funds and Inter - bank Self - Discipline Expectations, with Limited Probability of a Significant Increase in the Future - Despite the central bank's downplaying of interest rate cut expectations, the liquidity remains abundant. The current state may be affected by cash return and fiscal fund replenishment. It is estimated that the excess reserve ratio in March is expected to reach 1.4% [25][28]. - The stable DR001 may be related to the central bank's maintenance of stability. Although the central bank has downplayed the interest rate cut expectation, it also maintains a loose liquidity environment to avoid short - term market impacts [29]. - The current short - end interest rate has largely priced in the expectation of loose funds after the quarter - end. The probability of the short - end interest rate center moving further down is relatively limited, and there may be disturbances if the funds do not become looser or fluctuate after the quarter - end [34][36]. 3.3 Potential Breaking Points of the Long - Short End Segmentation State - In the medium - term, the long - short end segmentation state will not last. There are several potential breaking points: fundamental improvement leading to the central bank tightening liquidity and flattening the curve bearishly, but the current risk is relatively limited; supply shocks affecting the domestic economy and overseas demand, with the impact possibly appearing in mid - April; the central bank advancing the reserve requirement ratio cut due to A - share adjustments, which may bring more opportunities for the long - end, with a higher probability of implementation in Q2 [37][40][46]. - In the short - term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate. Before the quarter - end, the state of uncertain inflation paths and loose funds may continue. Some investors may turn to the middle part of the curve. Recently, 5Y and 7Y interest - rate bonds have performed relatively strongly, and 4 - 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds may still benefit in the short - term [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It has led to increased inflation concerns, changes in central bank policies, and fluctuations in various asset prices. For example, it has affected the prices of precious metals, base metals, energy commodities, and agricultural products. [4][8][10] - The global economic outlook is uncertain, with concerns about stagflation and recession. Central banks' monetary policies, especially the Fed's stance on interest rates, are crucial factors influencing market trends. [4][39][45] - Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some industries are facing supply - side constraints, while others are affected by demand - side factors. For instance, in the metal industry, copper and aluminum are affected by supply shortages and geopolitical factors, while in the agricultural industry, factors such as production forecasts and trade policies play important roles. [13][15][83] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Iran proposed 4 measures in response to Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants, and the Trump administration started preliminary consultations on "peace talks" with Iran. The central bank governor said that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and a large light rare - earth mine was discovered in Sichuan. [2] - **Strategy**: The conflict between the US and Iran has affected global risk appetite. The hawkish stances of Powell and European central bank officials have led to a decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a rapid rise in US bond yields. In China, exports are resilient, and PPI has been narrowing. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks. [4] - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: The basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided, showing different trends. [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of decline. The Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote travel service exports, and the LPR remained stable for the tenth consecutive month. The central bank conducted 205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. [5] - **Strategy**: The economic data from January to February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has raised concerns about imported inflation, and inflationary pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. [8] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in both domestic and international markets declined. The Fed and other major central banks maintained their current interest rates, and the US Treasury Secretary made statements about war funds. Iran proposed counter - measures against Trump's threats. [9] - **Strategy**: The escalation of the US - Iran war has raised inflation concerns, causing central banks to be cautious about interest - rate cuts. The strengthening of real interest rates and the US dollar, along with a decline in near - term interest - rate cut expectations, have put pressure on precious metals. Gold is in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish. [10] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the Middle - East situation, the copper price continued to decline. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased. The spot market showed different supply - demand situations in different regions. [12] - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation has not cooled down, and inflation and economic weakness continue to suppress market sentiment. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and future inventory digestion may support the copper price. The short - term copper price may continue to find the bottom. [13] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price continued to be weak. The inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum bars increased. The LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M maintained a premium. [14] - **Strategy**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation has affected market risk sentiment, and the supply concern has been alleviated. Overseas supply is expected to be tight, and domestic inventory may decrease. If the war situation does not cool down, the aluminum price is expected to be weakly volatile. [15] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, while the LME zinc price fell. The domestic and international inventories and basis are provided. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the zinc price decline. [16][17] - **Strategy**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and the import TC has declined. The zinc industry is in a weak situation, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [18] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell, and the LME lead price also declined. The domestic and international inventories, basis, and other data are provided. The social inventory of lead decreased after the price decline. [19] - **Strategy**: The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the import TC has increased. The lead price is at the lower end of the long - term shock range. The downstream may conduct strategic purchases, but the high沪伦 ratio and inflation concerns may also put pressure on the lead price. The price volatility is increasing. [19] Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price fell. The spot price and cost of nickel also changed. The price of nickel iron decreased slightly. [20] - **Strategy**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the hawkish stance of the Fed. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support. It is recommended to use high - sell and low - buy strategies. [21] Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The inventory of SHFE and LME decreased. The supply side is gradually recovering, but the demand side has not fully recovered. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the price decline. [22] - **Strategy**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weakly volatile under the influence of geopolitical factors. [23] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the inventory reduction margin has shrunk. [24] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation has affected the metal market. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the price has certain support. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums. [25] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the overseas price remained stable. The futures inventory increased, and the price of bauxite in Guinea increased. [26] - **Strategy**: Guinea may tighten bauxite exports, and the supply of alumina is expected to be tight in the short term but in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see strategy. [27] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose. The spot price in different markets increased, and the inventory decreased. The raw material prices were relatively stable. [28] - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation has increased inflation concerns, and the Fed's hawkish stance has led to a decline in commodity prices. The stainless steel market has a loose supply, slow inventory reduction, and weak demand. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. [28] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract fell. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased. The price of ADC12 in the domestic market decreased. [30] - **Strategy**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price has certain support. [31] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions also changed. [33] - **Strategy**: The real - estate data from January to February was weak, and the demand for steel from the real - estate sector is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and raw material price fluctuations. [33] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price and basis are provided. The overseas ore shipment increased, and the domestic iron - water production increased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory increased. [34][35] - **Strategy**: The overseas supply of iron ore is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level shock due to resource structure issues and geopolitical conflicts. [35] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke increased. The spot prices and basis are provided. The price of coking coal suddenly rose on Friday night, which was considered a result of the "energy substitution" sentiment. [36] - **Strategy**: The market has shifted from inflation and supply - side concerns to stagflation and recession trading. The black - metal sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and it is recommended to take short - term long - position operations or wait - and - see. In the long term, the coking coal price is expected to be positive. [39] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the soda ash main contract price increased slightly. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. The open interest of glass and soda ash also changed. [40][41] - **Strategy**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand situation and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range shock. [40][42] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price rose significantly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price also rose. The spot prices and basis are provided. The price of manganese silicon was affected by the potential impact of a typhoon on manganese ore. [43] - **Strategy**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is relatively good. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall market sentiment, manganese ore supply, and "dual - carbon" policies. [45][46] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price rose, and the polysilicon main contract price fell. The spot prices and basis are provided. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing slightly, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon market has high inventory and weak demand. [47][48] - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be in a shock due to cost support. The polysilicon price is expected to find the bottom in a shock due to weak fundamentals. [48][49] Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The Middle - East situation has affected the rubber market. The prices of natural rubber and butadiene rubber have different trends. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber are provided. [52][53] - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. It is also recommended to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [55] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined - oil products also changed. [56] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to start a short - position strategic allocation for crude oil. It is also recommended to widen the price difference between different oil types in the Red Sea area, short the high - sulfur fuel - oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread. [58] Methanol - **Market Information**: The main methanol futures contract price changed, and the MTO profit also changed. [59] - **Strategy**: It is considered that methanol has fully included the current geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profit at high prices. [60] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed. The overall basis is provided. [61] - **Strategy**: The expectation of high - level production in the first quarter is strong. The domestic supply - demand situation is balanced, and the marginal impact is mainly related to export quotas. It is recommended to short - sell urea. [62] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the basis and other indicators are provided. The upstream and downstream operating rates and inventory are also provided. [63] - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the cost of pure benzene is relatively wide. The supply and demand of styrene are in a certain state. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position due to geopolitical impacts. [64] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price rose. The spot price, basis, and cost data are provided. The operating rate and inventory of PVC are also provided. [65] - **Strategy**: The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises has rebounded, but there are expectations of production reduction and seasonal maintenance. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export may be affected. The short - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks. [66] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price rose. The supply and demand data, inventory, and cost data are provided. [67] - **Strategy**: The overseas and domestic device maintenance is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The short - term price has risen too much, and attention should be paid to risks. [68][69] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The operating rate, inventory, and processing fee data are provided. [70] - **Strategy**: The PTA is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term over - increase. [71] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract price fell. The operating rate, inventory, and cost data are provided. [72] - **Strategy**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is increasing. The PX is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term over - increase. [73] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price fell. The spot price, basis, upstream operating rate, and inventory data are provided. [74] - **Strategy**: The PE spot price has fallen, and the valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases. [75] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price fell. The spot price, basis, upstream operating rate, and inventory data are provided. [76] - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production - mismatch issue. [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall over the weekend. The supply is concentrated, and the demand recovery is slow. [79] - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated release period, and the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the medium - term price increase basis is poor. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The domestic egg price had different trends over the weekend. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. [81] - **Strategy**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the current supply level is still high. The short - term spot price may be strong, but the near - month contract has limited upside space. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for the far - month contract. [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US have increased. The US soybean export data and domestic soybean arrival and inventory data are provided. The global soybean production and inventory - consumption ratio are also provided. [83] - **Strategy**: The March USDA report is neutral. The protein - meal price is affected by the volatile crude - oil price due to the geopolitical crisis. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia may restrict the export of palm oil. The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic inventory of three major oils is also

1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran intensifying, which has a significant impact on the energy market and may lead to a long - term energy crisis. The Chinese government will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take measures to boost domestic demand and promote economic development [10][11][17] - The performance of different industries varies. The gold price has dropped sharply, the aluminum price has risen due to supply shortages, the coal - coke - steel - ore industry has new exploration results, the energy - chemical industry is affected by the Middle East situation, and the agricultural product market, especially the pig - breeding market, is in a downturn [5][6][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed down year - on - year, with a growth rate of 4.5%. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in February 2026 were below the boom - bust line, at 49.0% and 49.5%, respectively. Social financing scale in February 2026 was 23855 billion yuan. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans in February 2026 were 9000 billion yuan. CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9%. Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices may rise to the "9 - yuan era", with an expected increase of about 2000 yuan/ton. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPRs in March 2026 remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, and experts predict a possible interest rate cut in the middle of the year. The trading rules of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have been adjusted [2] - The People's Bank of China will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. The US - China trade relations are expected to improve, and both sides hope to promote economic and trade cooperation. The base differences of domestic commodities vary, and the Middle East situation is tense [3][4] 3.2.2 Metals - The international gold price has dropped by 10.49%, and domestic gold jewelry prices have also declined. The performance of gold - related listed companies may be further differentiated, with upstream gold mining enterprises benefiting the most from the rising gold price. The calculation method of the margin account fund adequacy ratio for ICBC's agent individual precious metal trading business has been modified [5] - Aluminum production in Bahrain has been affected, leading to a sharp rise in international aluminum prices. Battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices have reached new lows in over a month [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal - Coking - Steel - Ore - A large - scale rare - earth mine in Sichuan has increased its reserves by over 200%, and Indonesia is expected to approve a nickel - ore production plan of about 1 billion tons by the end of March [8] 3.2.4 Energy - Chemical - The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has affected the safety of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The US has threatened to attack Iran's power plants, and Iran has responded strongly. The global energy supply is at risk, and the supply of liquefied petroleum gas in India is in short supply [9][10][11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China will implement a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents to boost consumption. The pig - breeding market is in deep losses, and the state has started to purchase frozen pork for storage. Scientists have developed "long - life rice" [12][13][14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 2423 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 4500 billion yuan of MLF will expire. Last week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 658 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [15] 3.3.2 Key News - The draft financial law is open for public comments, aiming to strengthen financial risk management. China will promote high - quality development and opening - up, and the government will take measures to boost domestic demand. The central bank will promote the high - level opening of the financial industry and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy [16][17] - The performance comparison benchmarks of wealth management products are showing trends of "anchor replacement" and reduction. The LPR has remained stable for ten months. The sixth state - owned bank's financial asset investment company has been established. Iran has put forward six conditions for a ceasefire, and the US is seeking diplomatic solutions [19][20][21] - Some bond - related events have occurred, such as the ineffective bond - holder meeting and the default of debt repayment. Overseas credit ratings of some companies have been adjusted [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The main interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank bond market in China have been fluctuating within a narrow range. The performance of exchange - traded bonds and convertible bonds has been mixed. Shibor short - term varieties have mostly declined, and the yields of European and US bonds have generally risen [23][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar has risen, while the US dollar index has also risen, and most non - US currencies have declined [26][27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the US - Iran conflict may lead to high oil prices for a long time, and China's exports may slow down in the short term. Huatai Fixed - Income is cautious about US bonds. Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the long - end interest rate to recover. Shenwan Fixed - Income provides investment strategies for small and medium - sized banks' Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [28][29][30] 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On March 23, 2026, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, and have their payments made, and many bonds will have their principal and interest repaid [30][31] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market has shown a significant divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new low this year. The Hong Kong stock market has also declined, but the IPO financing amount has exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2606 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "bullish", with an overall view of "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure on the upside and support on the downside, and they will mainly conduct range - bound and oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term view (within one week) is "oscillation", the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the overall view is "oscillatory consolidation". The key reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The central bank announced that the March LPR quote remained unchanged, which is the 10th consecutive month of unchanged quotes since the interest rate cut in May last year. This indicates that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term monetary policy is low because macroeconomic indicators are highly resilient and the policy side prefers structural easing. With the continuous escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the risk of global energy supply shortages and the risk of supply chain disruptions for key raw materials have increased, leading to a rise in the risk of a weakening global macro - economy. Considering the existing problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, in order to stabilize economic growth and promote a reasonable recovery of prices, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, and the possibility of an interest rate hike is low [5].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, which in turn suppress precious metal prices due to inflation and recession concerns [1] - The increase in ETF holdings has resulted in higher volatility for gold, while weak U.S. employment data suggests that the U.S. may struggle to raise interest rates [1] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, and the relative stability of the U.S. dollar indicates that the long-term logic for precious metals remains unchanged [1] Group 2: Copper - The escalation of the Middle East situation has raised inflation concerns, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates emphasizes the uncertainty of the economic impact [2] - The spot treatment charge (TC) for copper concentrate continues to decline, and domestic copper inventories have decreased to 523,100 tons, indicating a recovery in downstream restocking and operations [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and tightening liquidity expectations are putting pressure on aluminum prices, with the industry operating at a slight increase in capacity utilization to 62.9% [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate has seen continuous inventory depletion post-holiday, with strong demand and rising production contributing to a favorable fundamental outlook [3] - The cobalt sector is experiencing tight raw material supply, while downstream demand remains cautious, leading to price fluctuations at high levels [3] - Rare earth prices have decreased on a month-on-month basis, but upcoming restocking plans in April and May are expected to provide some support for prices [3] Group 4: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are stabilizing after a previous surge, with tight supply conditions persisting, although downstream purchasing remains cautious [3] - The price of uranium has increased to $90 per pound in February, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, indicating a potential for further price increases [3] - Tantalum prices continue to rise due to supply shortages from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with demand from emerging industries like AI supporting high prices [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but relatively weak domestic demand. Policy adjustments will focus on increasing quality consumption supply, reducing inefficient investments, promoting consumer welfare, and addressing debt issues, which will impact various industries differently [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Projections**: China's economy is expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, with inflation anticipated to be higher than in 2025. This suggests that nominal growth will outperform this year, positively influencing secondary market investments. Structural opportunities will primarily be found in technology and consumption sectors, driven by both economic and cultural factors [3]. - **Export Performance**: Exports in 2025 exceeded expectations, and growth in 2026 is projected to be at least as high as this year, potentially exceeding 6%. The share of exports to emerging markets is increasing, while direct exports to the U.S. are declining, although overall dependency is rising. Despite falling export prices, corporate profit margins are stabilizing due to technological advancements and cost reductions [5][13]. - **Weak Domestic Demand**: The primary reasons for weak domestic demand are the transformation of the real estate sector and heavy debt burdens, which have adversely affected the income of businesses, governments, and households. This situation is reflected in accounts receivable and payable metrics, indicating potential risks [6]. - **"Anti-Involution" Policy**: This systemic initiative differs from historical capacity reduction measures and will intensify in certain sectors such as glass, chemicals, photovoltaics, non-ferrous metals, and coal in 2026. This indicates that structural opportunities will increasingly manifest in specific industries [7]. - **Economic Policy Trends**: The economic policy for 2026 will continue a trend of moderate acceleration, focusing on increasing quality consumption supply and reducing inefficient supply. This approach has been emphasized since the 2022 strategic planning outline and the 2025 "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sectors to Watch**: Key areas for increasing quality consumption supply include yachts, private jets, automobiles, and services in sports and high-end healthcare. Inbound consumption is also significant. Collectively, these sectors represent about 3% of 2024's GDP, with a potential growth of 10%, translating to a 0.3 percentage point increase in GDP [10]. - **Fiscal Policy Measures**: The overall fiscal deficit rate is expected to rise, including a narrow deficit rate of 3%-4% and a broader fiscal support rate. Adjustments in the use of special bonds aim to enhance efficiency, with the 2025 special bond scale at 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in usage compared to previous years [11]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2026, with interest rate cuts likely and sufficient room for reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2025 [12]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment is anticipated to improve slightly next year due to moderate increases and structural adjustments. Consumption levels are expected to remain stable, supported by policies like trade-in programs and increased social welfare spending, alongside enhanced quality consumption supply. Export expectations are optimistic, with a projected growth of 6% or higher, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and advancements in Chinese technology [2][13]. - **Potential Growth Space**: China's potential growth rate exceeds 5%, indicating substantial growth opportunities. With sufficient policy support, higher growth can be achieved. Overall, a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures will allow the economy to reveal more positive aspects, with significant development opportunities across various sectors [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core of current bond market trading lies in the contrast between loose liquidity and a significant rise in inflation expectations. The bond market shows little volatility, but the curve steepening trend continues. Due to the decline in inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, the yields of medium - and short - term bonds within 10 years may still decline, while the yields of ultra - long - term bonds are more significantly affected by fundamentals and show a weak trend [8]. - Overseas stagflation trading is the current macro - mainline but will not affect domestic monetary policy, as the core lies in the different supply - demand contradictions between domestic and overseas markets. High - frequency real - estate data is not sufficient to change the medium - term data conclusion, and it is too early to change the cyclical conclusion. Looking forward, the probability of a steeper bond market yield curve is still high, and there is insufficient evidence of a bond market bear market [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Logic and Strategy - The decline in certificate of deposit yields continues to support medium - and short - term bonds, and the curve steepening trend persists [6]. - Regarding the money and policy front, after the tax period, the money price is stable with a slight decline, and the LPR quote remains unchanged, meeting market expectations. The certificate of deposit rate continues to decline. The MLF due next Wednesday is 450 billion yuan, and if the central bank maintains a 50 - billion - yuan bond - buying scale and a 1 - trillion - yuan monthly medium - and long - term liquidity injection, the MLF needs to be renewed by 1.7 trillion yuan. There is a large gap, and the central bank may use other tools such as future reserve requirement ratio cuts. The central bank's research on canceling the 5% lower limit of the deposit reserve ratio lacks market - recognized authenticity, but the market logic has some merit. Currently, the certificate of deposit rate is likely to continue approaching 1.5%. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio in the second quarter, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be postponed [8][32]. - On the fundamental front, domestic economic indicators in January - February showed a significant recovery, except for the real - estate sector. The industrial sector played a key role in production, and new - quality productivity accelerated. The three - horse - carriage of demand worked together, and both domestic and external demand improved. The CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 1.3%, indicating a mild recovery in demand and a further alleviation of deflationary pressure. However, the macro - data from January - February was significantly affected by the Spring Festival, and the data in March may be negatively affected. Overseas, during the "super week" of global central banks from March 16 - 22, 2026, major central banks' policy stances turned hawkish or cautious, and the previously expected easing cycle was postponed or reversed. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts in major developed economies has basically disappeared, replaced by concerns about possible interest rate hikes [8][18]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes - Affected by inflation, the yields of Chinese and US bonds have both increased, the US dollar has rebounded with fluctuations, and the US and Chinese stock markets have significantly declined. The stagflation expectation continues to prevail. The China Securities Commodity Index has weakened with severe differentiation, precious metals and non - ferrous metals have weakened significantly, and crude - oil - related commodities have continued to rise sharply [12]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review - Domestic data from January - February showed a comprehensive recovery in most economic indicators except for real - estate. However, the data was affected by the Spring Festival, and the data in March may be under pressure. Overseas, major central banks' policy stances turned hawkish or cautious during the "super week" due to the energy price shock caused by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [8][18]. - In February, domestic inflation showed that the CPI increase expanded, and the PPI decline narrowed, both exceeding expectations. Foreign trade exports increased significantly, mainly driven by the global AI investment boom in the semiconductor industry chain. Financial data showed that the growth rate of social financing was flat, and government bonds were the key support for social financing growth. Overseas, in February, the US CPI and core CPI met expectations and were the same as the previous values, with structural differences in the sub - categories of the CPI [24]. - In February, the domestic manufacturing PMI declined unexpectedly, mainly due to the impact of the extended Spring Festival holiday. Overseas, the unexpectedly weak February non - farm payrolls report in the US and the tense Middle - East situation have created a stagflation combination, putting the Fed in a difficult policy dilemma. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm has changed [25]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Indicator Monitoring - The money price is stable with a slight decline after the tax period, the LPR quote remains unchanged, and the certificate of deposit rate continues to decline. The MLF due next Wednesday is 450 billion yuan, and there is a large gap in the renewal amount. The central bank may use other tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts. The central bank's meeting in March emphasized maintaining liquidity and the stability of financial markets, and the necessity of interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio in the second quarter, and the interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed [8][32]. - The yields of Chinese and US bonds, the US dollar index, and the RMB exchange rate have shown certain trends. The bond market curve shows a steepening trend, and the yields of medium - and short - term bonds within 10 years may decline [12][36]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring - The ROE of listed companies and macro - economic data show certain relationships. The EPS and PE of major broad - based indexes have different trends, reflecting the performance and valuation of the equity market [90][91]. - The trading volume, turnover rate, and margin trading balance of the equity market show the market's liquidity and activity. The style of the equity index and the basis rate of stock index futures also reflect the market's characteristics [110][129]. 3.6 Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy - The net financing amounts of government bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds, as well as the fiscal revenue and expenditure, show the government's financing and fiscal situation. The relationship between social financing, M2, and M1 reflects the money supply and demand in the market [137][156]. - The real - estate market data, including land transactions, housing sales, and prices, show the current situation and trends of the real - estate market. The inflation data, including the CPI, PPI, and price indexes of various commodities, reflect the inflation situation [164][186]. - The industrial production and inventory data, including production capacity utilization, output, and inventory levels, show the operation of the industrial sector. The import and export data, BCI index, and power generation data reflect the economic situation and business confidence [207][240]. 3.7 Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy No relevant content provided. 3.8 Appendix - The comparison of central meetings shows the economic goals, policy tones, and key points of different periods, reflecting the government's economic decision - making and policy orientation [326][327][328]. - The comparison of public - offering fund sales regulations shows the changes in fees such as subscription fees, redemption fees, and sales service fees for different types of funds, which will affect the investment cost and return of investors [332]. - The event of the US tariff policy change shows the development process, impact, and future prospects of the US - China trade war, which will have an impact on the global economic and trade situation [333][334][335]. - The comparison of government work report indicators shows the economic goals, fiscal and monetary policies, and development priorities of different years, reflecting the government's economic development strategy [340].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market has become somewhat numb to external risks, with a prevailing high level of cautious sentiment. It is expected that the yield on 10-year government bonds will continue to fluctuate above 1.80% in the short term, with overall smaller fluctuations in coupon strategies [2][3][13] - The stock market is experiencing unpredictable volatility, and investors are advised to remain patient. Global markets are gradually pricing in a "prolonged conflict," leading to a decline in risk appetite. Despite China's relative resilience, the A-share market may face pressure in the short term due to seasonal factors and external disturbances. The report suggests focusing on broad indices like the CSI 300 and defensive sectors such as low-volatility dividends and high-growth technology hardware to hedge against volatility risks [3][11][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.38% and the Wind All A Index falling by 4.13%. Concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East have led to increased worries about energy crises, rising inflation, and changes in monetary policy, further suppressing global risk appetite [11][14] - The domestic macro multi-asset model has achieved a one-year return of 12.66%, exceeding the benchmark by 3.93%. The Sharpe ratio for the same period stands at 1.83, significantly higher than the benchmark's 1.19, indicating strong performance [22][24] - The global macro multi-asset model has recorded a one-year return of 11.60%, surpassing the benchmark by 2.87%. The Sharpe ratio for this model is 1.58, also exceeding the benchmark's 1.19, reflecting effective asset allocation strategies [22][28]