今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于18.031一线上方，今日开盘于18.174元/克，截至发稿， 纸白银暂报18.184元/克，上涨0.85%，最高触及18.189元/克，最低下探18.189元/克，目前来看，纸白银 盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格区域震荡，目前价格小幅上涨，一小时布林带扩大，表明仍有上涨空间，开口向 上，走势处上涨轨道，RSI处于中性偏涨，市场买盘活跃，纸白银走势下方关注17.00-17.50支撑，上方 关注18.50-19.00阻力。 美联储巴尔金表示，鉴于失业率上升与通胀依然高企所带来的矛盾压力，货币政策前景仍处于微妙的平 衡之中。巴尔金表示，去年的75个基点政策宽松意味着利率目前已处于所谓的"中性利率"估值范围内， 他将其比作购买保险。 巴尔金指出："展望未来，政策将需要进行精细调整，以平衡我们在履行双重职责各方面所取得的进 展。"尽管失业率按历史标准衡量仍处于低位，但决策者正在关注其双重职责的两个方面，希望在控制 通胀的同时促进就业。 巴尔金说："由于招聘率处于低位，没人希望劳动力市场进一步恶化；而由于通胀偏离目标已接近五 年，也没人 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，美国央行将需要在2026年将利率下调超过100个基点，他 认为货币政策正在抑制经济增长。"我认为，很难论证政策大致处于中性水平。我认为政策显然具有限 制性，并且正在拖累经济，"米兰周二在福克斯商业网络节目中表示。"我认为，今年有充分理由降息远 超100个基点。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

晨报 铁矿石 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 1 月 7 日 逻辑：国内货币政策预期升温，1 月 6 日，央行强调"把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回 升作为货币政策的重要考量灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具"。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 宏观方面，国内货币政策和财政政策均处于积极储备期，美联储降息周期开启对于大宗商品 形成提振，且产业链现实端处于弱平衡阶段，产业链价格维持窄幅波动趋势，主要原因在于成材 端库存压力持续缓解，产业链估值回升，铁矿石现货价格强势支撑盘面，叠加钢厂正式进入补库 周期，补库需求或支撑价格保持相对强势。 成 材：武秋婷 供应方面：主流矿山发运年底阶段性冲量结束，本期周度发运量环比大幅回落，外矿发运将 进入季节性发运淡季，国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端支撑步入偏强阶段。 铁矿石： 货币政策预期升温 盘面注意高位风险 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资 ...

与美联储的政策摇摆不同，瑞士央行则坚守政策稳定性。继2025年连续两次维持关键政策利率在0%不 变后，路透社调查显示，绝大多数经济学家预计瑞士央行在2026全年仍将维持利率在零水平。尽管瑞士 2025年11月CPI同比降至0%的政策目标下限，央行还将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，但明确表 态回归负利率的门槛极高，因负利率存在"不良副作用"。值得注意的是，瑞士央行在2025年三季度曾买 入7500万瑞士法郎外汇以减缓瑞郎升值节奏，但干预力度有限，未改变瑞郎的强势格局。 经济基本面与贸易环境的变化，进一步强化了美瑞汇率的分化格局。瑞士经济展现出较强韧性，2025年 三季度GDP虽受制药行业拖累收缩，但制造业和服务业增长形成有效对冲，央行预计全年增速略低于 1.5%。更关键的是，2025年11月美瑞贸易协议生效，美国对瑞士商品关税从39%大幅降至15%，显著缓 解出口压力，为瑞郎提供基本面支撑。同时，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标升至103.4，创下自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，预示经济前景向好。而美元端则承压明显，2025年美元指数累计下跌约 9%，2026年1月6日亚洲交易时段，美元指 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-07 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 央行明确 2026 年重点工作 观点分享： 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议 1 月 5 日-6 日召开，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发 展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。 建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排，发挥好两项支持资本市场的货币政 策工具作用。强化金融市场监管执法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。强化虚拟货币监 管，持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。稳步发展数字人民币。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：多重预期驱动，铜价走强。从供应端看，全球地缘政治持续动荡，引发对铜矿供应的担 忧。特朗普宣称美国企业将投资数十亿美元修复委石油基础设施，暴露资源控制意图。市场 担心其可能挤压其他国家在核心产区的权益，增加区域铜矿供应断裂的风险，从而提升全球 铜矿供应的干扰率。同时，2026 年中国进口铜精矿长单 TC 为 0 美元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]

重要的消息有哪些 1．2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日—6日召开。会议强调，2026年重点抓好以下工作：继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增 长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。畅通 货币政策传导机制，发挥好政策利率引导作用，做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位 运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面，推动明示个人贷款综合融资成本。保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，防范汇率超调风险。 2．2026年全国外汇管理工作会议1月5日至6日在京召开。会议部署了2026年外汇管理重点工作。保障外 汇储备资产安全、流动和保值增值。推进《外汇管理条例》修订，建设更高标准国际收支统计体系，稳 步探索建设"智慧外管"，提高外汇管理数智化水平。 3．1月6日，上交所披露，2025年A股股票账户新开户累计2743.69万户，相较于2024年的2499.89万户， 同比增长9.75%。就202 ...

转自：智通财经 【智通财经1月7日早间新闻精选】 1、2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议强调，坚持 稳中求进工作总基调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期 和跨周期调节力度；把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降 准降息等多种货币政策工具。 2、商务部公告，禁止所有两用物项对日本军事用户、军事用途，以及一 切有助于提升日本军事实力的其他最终用户用途出口。 3、为做好"十五五"规划编制工作，监管部门上 月调研了部分银行理财公司。其调研问题包括但不限于当前制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例的 障碍；以及如何能提高理财投资A股的积极性等。 4、消息人士称，鉴于日本近期恶劣表现，中国政府 正考虑针对性收紧2025年4月4日列管的中重稀土相关物项出口许可审查。 5、2025年12月A股新开户260 万户，环比11月增长9%，2025年全年已累计新开2744万户，同比增长10%。 6、两家磷酸铁锂上市公司 确认已成功提价，其中一位公司相关负责人表示，对大客户提价幅度1500至2000元/吨。 7、国投瑞银 基金管理有限公司公告，旗 ...

人民财讯1月7日电，【摘要】央行：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。脑 机接口"独角兽"强脑科技完成约20亿元融资。商务部：加强两用物项对日本出口管制。国家外汇局：推 进《外汇管理条例》修订，建设更高标准国际收支统计体系。2026年我国将推出30余项数据领域国家标 准。我国水利建设完成投资连续4年超万亿元。中国汽车流通协会：预计1月汽车市场将呈现"开门红"的 局面。国家外汇局：有序扩大跨境贸易高水平开放试点，加大力度支持跨境电商等贸易新业态发展。 ...