Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in response to President Trump's trade policies, highlighting the divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and other developed economies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach, using the term "waiting" 22 times during a press conference to indicate that the Fed is not in a hurry to act [1]. - Powell stated that the costs of waiting and further observation are relatively low, which reflects the Fed's cautious attitude towards preemptive rate cuts amid uncertainties caused by Trump's trade policies [2][4]. - The Fed's reluctance to cut rates preemptively is influenced by recent high inflation in the U.S., with officials concerned that cutting rates could exacerbate inflationary pressures [4][7]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Economies - Other economies have not yet implemented large-scale tariffs on imports, allowing them to focus on addressing demand weakness and labor market cooling without the inflation concerns faced by the Fed [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates seven times in the past year, totaling 175 basis points, while the Fed has maintained rates between 4.25% and 4.5% since the beginning of the year [6]. - The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates, with predictions of at least a 25 basis point reduction, indicating a faster pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed [6]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Economists at JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's first rate cut to September, while Goldman Sachs predicts cuts starting in July, with a total of three cuts expected throughout the year [8][9]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Europe is likely to widen, with Goldman Sachs forecasting that the ECB will continue to cut rates until September, potentially lowering its benchmark rate to 1.5% [9]. - The inflation rates in the U.S. and Eurozone are currently similar, but their future trajectories may diverge significantly, with potential implications for monetary policy decisions in both regions [10].

Core Viewpoint - Swedbank has significantly revised its forecast for the Swedish central bank's benchmark interest rate, now predicting a cumulative cut of 50 basis points to 1.75% by the end of Q3 this year, a major shift from the previous expectation of a single cut of 25 basis points to 2.25% in August [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The largest economy in the Nordic region is facing three pressures: external uncertainty due to U.S. trade policies, concerns over stagnation in domestic economic recovery, and persistent core inflation that constrains monetary policy [1] - Despite signs of overall inflation easing, the core CPI, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, contrasting with a potential GDP growth rate that may fall below 1.5% [1] Group 2: Trade Impact - The report emphasizes that the chain reaction from U.S. tariffs cannot be overlooked, as trade friction will impact the Swedish economy through reduced export orders, slowed business investment, and weakened consumer confidence [2] - Consequently, Swedbank has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.5%, while maintaining the growth estimate of 1.5% for this year [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - For neighboring Norway, Swedbank maintains the baseline forecast for the European Central Bank to initiate rate cuts in September, with an added expectation of a second cut in December, predicting four consecutive cuts to 3% by 2026 [2] - Analysts note that the policy shift by the Swedish central bank reflects the unique challenges faced by Nordic economies, which must guard against imported inflation risks while addressing the impacts of protectionism on export-driven economies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising risk aversion in global markets driven by geopolitical tensions and divergent monetary policies, particularly affecting the Japanese yen [1][3] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its economic growth and inflation forecasts while maintaining short-term interest rates, indicating a potential for future rate hikes, creating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments for the yen [3] - The Federal Reserve has not signaled a clear intention to cut rates, with strong service sector PMI and labor market data supporting the dollar, leading to increased volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate [3] Group 2 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has faced resistance at key technical levels, specifically around 144.25 and 144.30, which has resulted in a confirmed short-term downtrend after breaking below the 144.00 level [3][4] - The market is currently focused on the support level at 143.50; a break below this could lead to further declines towards 143.00 and 142.65, while a rebound above 144.30 could trigger a short-covering rally [4] - The interplay of rising geopolitical risks and the Fed's neutral stance is driving a revaluation of the yen's safe-haven status, suggesting that even with the Bank of Japan's accommodative policy, demand for the yen may increase due to deteriorating global risk appetite [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation below the 1.14 level as the market awaits key economic data from Europe and the US, with a critical directional choice looming due to a strong resistance level [1] Fundamental Analysis - The recent pressure on the US dollar is attributed to two main factors: a significant decline in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping from 4.59% to around 4.25%, and signs of easing in the Trump administration's trade policies, which have reduced the market's demand for the dollar as a safe haven [3] - The Eurozone's economic recovery shows structural divergence, with Italy's Q1 GDP growth at 0.3% (YoY 0.6%), slightly above market expectations, while Germany's GDP growth was only 0.2% (YoY -0.2%), highlighting the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector due to global trade weakness [3] - This divergence limits the upward potential of the Euro, although the European Central Bank's relatively hawkish stance compared to the Federal Reserve supports the exchange rate [3] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the Euro/USD has maintained an upward trend since the January 2025 low of 1.0177, reaching a peak of 1.1572 in April, but is now facing strong technical resistance at the Fibonacci 76.4% retracement level of 1.1683 [3] - The MACD indicator shows a clear bearish divergence, while the RSI is hovering between 60-68, suggesting a potential weakening of upward momentum [3] - On the weekly level, the 14-week RSI remains in an upward trend, but a close below 1.1271 this week would confirm a short-term top formation [4] Market Sentiment - Despite marginal improvements in Eurozone economic data, market sentiment remains cautious, with Italy's GDP exceeding expectations providing some support for the Euro, while concerns about the sustainability of the Eurozone recovery persist due to Germany's economic weakness [4] - CFTC positioning data shows an increase of 23,000 net long positions in the Euro as of April 23, but this has not broken through the 2024 high, indicating limited enthusiasm for chasing the rally [4] Monetary Policy Expectations - Diverging monetary policy expectations continue to develop, with the US core PCE price index expected to fall to 3.3% in March, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [5] - In contrast, European Central Bank officials have signaled a "no rush to cut rates" stance, with futures pricing indicating that the ECB's first rate cut is expected to occur about three months later than that of the Federal Reserve, providing mid-term support for the Euro [5] Market Strategy - In terms of technical strategy, if the exchange rate effectively breaks through the 1.1450-1.1500 resistance zone, bullish targets could be set at 1.1683, with key support levels at 1.1271 and the psychological level of 1.1000 [6] - Conversely, if the rate falls below the 1.1300 support, caution is warranted regarding potential pullback risks, with targets shifting to the 1.1271 and 1.1000 areas [6] - Key data points to monitor include the US April non-farm payroll report (expected to add 180,000 jobs), the Eurozone's April CPI preliminary value (expected YoY 2.4%), and the Federal Reserve's May interest rate decision statement, as these will be crucial catalysts for breaking the current fluctuation pattern [6]