1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on August 13, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.235 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.056, a weekly change of 0.006, a monthly change of - 0.222, and a yearly change of 0.446 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to the 10 - year bonds, yields of different countries had varying changes. The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield was 3.760 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.000, a weekly change of 0.070, a monthly change of - 0.150, and a yearly change of - 0.400 [3] Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The dollar's exchange rates against currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc., had different changes. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.398 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.16%, a weekly change of - 1.21%, a monthly change of - 3.07%, and a yearly change of - 5.68% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore, off - shore, and middle - price of the renminbi, as well as the 12 - month NDF, also had their respective values and changes on August 13, 2025 [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Stock indices of major economies such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq showed positive changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the Dow Jones index was 6466.580 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.32%, a weekly change of 1.92%, a monthly change of 3.24%, and a yearly change of 24.69% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: Including the Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had their own performance and changes [3] Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of emerging economies and developed economies had different values and changes on August 13, 2025. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 3467.280, with a latest change of 0.46%, a weekly change of 0.29%, a monthly change of 2.08%, and a yearly change of 4.65% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had their closing prices, price changes, and other data. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4176.58 on August 13, 2025, with a price change of 0.79% [5] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and risk premiums of different indices were presented, along with their changes [5] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in different markets were given [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and their changes of different markets were provided [5] - **Main Contract Premiums and Discounts**: The basis and basis spreads of IF, IH, and IC were shown [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their closing prices and price changes on August 13, 2025 [6] - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M had their rates and daily changes [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that since August, the open market operations have consistently pointed towards a net withdrawal of liquidity, with a total net withdrawal exceeding 26,265 billion yuan by August 12 [1][2][3] - Despite the net withdrawal, the funding prices in the interbank market have remained low and are on a downward trend, with the average DR007 rate at 1.4660% and DR001 at 1.2880% as of August 12 [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the prolonged decline in funding rates reflects the expectations of primary dealers regarding future funding rates and indicates the monetary authority's stance on liquidity management [1][3] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that the liquidity in the banking system has been relatively abundant since early August, with the average DR007 rate decreasing by 11.9 basis points compared to the previous months [2][3] - The People's Bank of China has been actively managing liquidity, as evidenced by the announcement of a 7,000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 7, despite already ample liquidity conditions [4][6] - Large banks have significantly increased their net lending, contributing to the overall liquidity in the market, with net lending levels returning to 50,000 billion yuan [7]

1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.284%, 4.600%, 3.348% respectively. The latest changes were 0.033, 0.054, 0.053; weekly changes were 0.066, 0.074, 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.127, - 0.021, - 0.064; and annual changes were 0.252, 0.631, 0.337 [3]. 1.2 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of August 8, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.690, 3.896, 1.952 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.030, 0.023, 0.036; weekly changes were - 0.250, 0.107, 0.027; monthly changes were - 0.190, 0.045, 0.056; and annual changes were - 0.670, 0.090, - 0.573 [3]. 1.3 Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On August 8, 2025, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.435, with a latest change of 0.18%, a weekly change of - 1.94%, a monthly change of - 2.25%, and an annual change of - 3.82%. Similar data were provided for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. [3]. 1.4 Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 6389.450, 44175.610, 21450.020 respectively. The latest changes were 0.78%, 0.47%, 0.98%; weekly changes were 2.43%, 1.35%, 3.87%; monthly changes were 2.07%, - 0.44%, 4.20%; and annual changes were 15.70%, 8.16%, 21.88% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.24%, - 0.15%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.12%, 0.08%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.45%, 0.45%, etc.; and annual changes were 5.06%, 4.83%, etc. [3][4] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3635.13, 4104.97, 2789.17 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes were - 0.12%, - 0.24%, - 0.33% [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.31, 11.47, 30.52 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02, - 0.02, - 0.06 [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.59 and 2.68 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.06 and - 0.03 [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, and SMEs were - 731.15, - 338.22, etc., and the 5 - day average values were - 266.18, - 179.38, etc. [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 17102.27, 3085.08, 828.05 respectively, with环比 changes of - 1152.63, - 496.00, - 114.17 [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 21.77, - 3.77, - 96.50 respectively, with spreads of - 0.53%, - 0.14%, - 1.53% [5] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.640, 105.840, 108.535, 105.895 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.06%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.06% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3413%, 1.4538%, 1.5544% respectively, with daily changes of - 14.00, - 3.00, - 1.00 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Futures Settlement Prices and Weekly Changes**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE settled at 108.61 with a 0.15% weekly increase, T2512.CFE at 108.505 with a 0.07% increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE at 105.82 with a 0.09% increase, TF2512.CFE at 105.875 with a 0.09% increase; 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE at 102.37 with a 0.02% increase, TS2512.CFE at 102.436 with a 0.04% increase; 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE at 119.25 with a 0.13% increase, TL2512.CFE at 118.880 with a 0.05% increase [7] - **Spread Data**: The T2509 - T2512 inter - term spread was 0.105 with a weekly decline of 0.523; TF2509 - TF2512 was - 0.055 with a decline of 12.000; TS2509 - TS2512 was - 0.066 with an increase of 7.250. The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 300.870 with a decline of 0.088; 2TF - T was 103.030 with an increase of 0.020; TS - TF was 98.920 with a decline of 0.054 [7] - **Spot Bond Yields**: The 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.35% with a weekly decline of 1.99 BP; 2Y was 1.40% with a decline of 2.69 BP; 3Y was 1.42% with a decline of 2.86 BP; 5Y was 1.54% with a decline of 2.39 BP; 7Y was 1.65% with a decline of 1.67 BP; 10Y was 1.69% with a decline of 1.88 BP; 30Y was 1.96% with an increase of 0.90 BP. The 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.50% with an increase of 0.04 BP; 3Y was 1.63% with a decline of 0.99 BP; 5Y was 1.66% with a decline of 0.62 BP; 7Y was 1.79% with a decline of 0.01 BP; 10Y was 1.78% with an increase of 1.59 BP; 30Y was 2.05% with an increase of 0.16 BP [7] - **Funding Rates**: The DR001 inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.31% with a weekly decline of 0.23 BP; DR007 was 1.43% with an increase of 0.09 BP; DR014 was 1.47% with a decline of 6.13 BP. The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.53% with a decline of 2.34 BP; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a decline of 0.86 BP [7] 2. CPI and PPI Data - **CPI Data**: The CPI in July was 0.4%, up 0.5 pct compared to the previous period, and the CPI in February 2024 was 0.8%, up 0.4 pct compared to the previous period. There were also various historical CPI data comparisons [21] - **PPI Data**: The PPI had changes such as a 0.4 pct change to - 0.2%, a 1 pct change to - 0.2 pct, etc [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the bond market may reach its peak moment, becoming a decisive factor in the performance competition in the second half of the year. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation. With five major positive factors supporting, there is a 10 - 12bp downward space for the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, and the potential returns are considerable when considering the duration [2][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. July Bond Market: "Unjust Disaster" - The bond market in July went against market expectations. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds started at 1.64% and 1.85% respectively and rose to 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the month, with an increase of 11bp and 15bp. The main reasons for the divergence between expectations and reality were the over - fermented risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets and the unexpected tightening of the capital market around the tax period [1][10]. - The bond market in July can be divided into three stages: a calm first ten - days, a turbulent middle ten - days, and a late ten - days when negative factors were released. In the late ten - days, affected by factors such as the start of a large - scale infrastructure project and the "anti - involution" trading, the bond market entered an irrational decline [11][12]. - In terms of various bond types, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds, and credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of various bonds generally increased, and the 30 - year treasury bond had a single - month decline of 2.30%, making July the second - worst month for the bond market this year [15][16][18]. 2. Five Reasons to Be Bullish on the Bond Market in August 2.1. Do Not Underestimate the Change in the US Attitude on Tariff Issues - The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation may become the main variable for asset pricing again. The US may use tariffs to seek benefits in investment or exports, which could damage global trade relations and create a negative atmosphere for Sino - US negotiations [2][21]. - In the new round of tariff negotiations, the US generally obtained favorable trade terms. This may make the US more aggressive in future Sino - US negotiations. If Sino - US relations deteriorate, it could suppress global and domestic risk preferences, which is beneficial to the bond market [22][24]. 2.2. The Fundamental Situation Weakens Marginally, but the Expectation of Policy Stimulus Retreats - The July PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, lower than the expected 49.7%. The new orders and production in the manufacturing industry declined, indicating weak demand. The large - scale net purchase of bills by major banks in July and the decline of bill interest rates to near zero may also suggest weak loan demand [25][26]. - The Politburo meeting at the end of July gave an optimistic assessment of the first - half economy, which may make it difficult to introduce short - term "stable growth" policies. If the economic data in the third quarter fluctuates, there may be a time lag before stimulus policies are introduced, which could lead to a decline in risk preferences and be beneficial to the bond market [29]. 2.3. The Suppression of Risk Appetite Caused by "Anti - Involution" Trading Weakens - From July 1st to 25th, affected by "anti - involution" trading, the futures prices of key commodities such as coking coal, coke, and polysilicon increased significantly, and the extreme risk preferences in the market were rapidly boosted, which was the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market [30]. - To suppress speculation, commodity exchanges issued relevant policies at the end of July. The first stage of the general rise in the commodity market may have passed, and the over - risen commodities have entered the price correction stage. The market risk preference has returned to rationality, reducing the resistance to the rise of the bond market [31][32]. 2.4. In Terms of Liquidity, August May Be the Low Point of the Annual Capital Interest Rate - Generally, the capital interest rate in August does not increase significantly compared with July. The natural capital gap in August is not large. Although the net issuance of government bonds may increase, it is offset by the lower tax payment. The MLF maturity scale in August is 3000 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure of repurchase agreements has eased, which is conducive to maintaining a neutral and loose capital interest rate [34][35]. - Historically, the R001 and R007 in August can generally remain stable, and the increase in the capital interest rate usually occurs before the end of the month. After August, the capital interest rate may fluctuate due to factors such as the quarter - end pressure in September and uncertainties in the fourth quarter. Therefore, August may be the low point of the annual capital interest rate [36][37]. 2.5. Pay Attention to the Return of Redeemed Funds and the New Premiums of Insurance "Cost - Reduction" - In July, the continuous redemption of public bond funds by institutions amplified the adjustment of the bond market. However, the redemption pressure may only be within the "institution - fund" circle and has not spread outward. The liability of wealth management products and banks remained stable. For example, wealth management products continued to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in July [46][49][50]. - If the redeemed funds of funds remain in the inter - bank market, they may flow back to the trading market as the bond market recovers in August, which could push the interest rate down. In addition, due to the adjustment of the insurance product interest rate, the yields of ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds have risen to around or above the "new cost line" of life insurance, and the ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience an excessive decline in August [50][55][57]. 3. The Bond Market in August May Reach Its Peak Moment: Grasping the Rhythm Is Key - With five major positive factors, the bond market in August may reach its peak moment. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August are greater, while the situation in the late ten - days needs further observation. From the end of July to the beginning of August, although the bond market entered the recovery stage, institutions were still cautious about the duration [5][59]. - It is recommended to extend the duration as much as possible with active individual bonds within the acceptable risk range. The bond interest tax - payment new rule announced by the Ministry of Finance on August 1st may affect the pricing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds in three stages, but it is not a negative factor for the bond market [59][63].

另一方面，市场宽货币预期较为稳固。7月30日召开的中央政治局会议定调"货币政策要保持流动性充 裕"。8月1日央行召开的2025年下半年工作会议中进一步明确了，要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， 市场或不再担忧资金利率出现类似1-3月的收紧。 新华财经北京8月4日电 人民银行4日开展5448亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平； 鉴于当日有4958亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放490亿元。 上周（7月28日-8月1日）央行公开市场净投放流动性69亿元。上半周央行逆回购持续净投放，资金面逐 步转松，周四跨月当日逆回购小幅净回笼，但对资金面冲击有限，DR001小幅上升至1.40%，创去年12 月以来跨月新低，周五央行逆回购净回笼规模达到6633亿元，资金利率仍迅速回落。 跨月当日，央行"超预期"缩量续做，资金面依然维持均衡，隔夜资金价格虽有抬升，但幅度弱于季节 性，R001单日上行20BP至1.56%，增幅为历史同期低位；R007则继续下行3BP至1.58%。进入8月，资金 面转松，隔夜利率迅速回落，R001、DR001分别收至1.35%、1.31%，7天资金利率也下行至1.40%水 平，R00 ...

Group 1: Futures Data - The Friday settlement price of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE is 108.450 with a weekly increase of 0.24%, and T2512.CFE is 108.425 with a 0.20% increase [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE is 105.730 with a 0.14% increase, and TF2512.CFE is 105.785 with a 0.13% increase [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE is 102.352 with a 0.03% increase, and TS2512.CFE is 102.394 with a - 0.01% change [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE is 119.090 with a 0.82% increase, and TL2512.CFE is 118.820 with a 0.78% increase [7]. Group 2: Spread Data - The spread of T2509 - T2512 is 0.025 with a weekly increase of 4.000; TF2509 - TF2512 is - 0.055 with no weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 is - 0.042 with a - 0.432 weekly change [7]. - The spread of 2TS - T is 300.958 with a - 0.151 weekly change; 2TF - T is 103.010 with a 0.035 weekly change; TS - TF is 98.974 with a - 0.093 weekly change [7]. Group 3: Bond Yield Data - The Friday closing yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond is 1.37% with a - 1.49 BP weekly change; 2 - year is 1.42% with - 1.11 BP; 3 - year is 1.45% with - 2.39 BP; 5 - year is 1.57% with - 2.15 BP; 7 - year is 1.67% with - 2.21 BP; 10 - year is 1.71% with - 2.75 BP; 30 - year is 1.95% with - 2.70 BP [7]. - The Friday closing yield of the 1 - year CDB bond is 1.50% with a - 2.70 BP weekly change; 3 - year is 1.64% with - 2.25 BP; 5 - year is 1.67% with - 3.40 BP; 7 - year is 1.79% with - 3.20 BP; 10 - year is 1.76% with - 4.54 BP; 30 - year is 2.05% with - 2.70 BP [7]. Group 4: Funding Rate Data - The latest price of the inter - bank pledged repo rate DR001 is 1.31% with a - 20.35 BP weekly change; DR007 is 1.42% with - 22.81 BP; DR014 is 1.53% with - 13.51 BP [7]. - The latest price of the SHIBOR1M is 1.55% with a 0.40 BP weekly change; SHIBOR3M is 1.56% with a 0.40 BP weekly change [7].

Report Overview - The report is the "Major Asset Morning Report" released by the macro team of the research center of Heyian Futures on August 1, 2025, presenting the performance of global asset markets [1]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes on July 31, 2025. For example, the US was at 4.376% with a latest change of 0.004%, a one - week change of - 0.022%, a one - month change of 0.028%, and a one - year change of 0.124%. Japan was at 3.958% with a latest change of 0.015%, a one - week change of 0.041%, a one - month change of 0.075%, and a one - year change of - 0.534% [2]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury yield on July 31, 2025, was 3.860% with a latest change of - 0.050%, a one - week change of 0.030%, a one - month change of - 0.090%, and a one - year change of - 0.630%. Japan was at 0.817% with a latest change of - 0.006%, a one - week change of - 0.027%, a one - month change of 0.074%, and a one - year change of 0.471% [2]. Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of USD against the Brazilian real was 5.600 with a latest change of 0.52%, a one - week change of 1.45%, a one - month change of 3.54%, and a one - year change of 0.26%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.218 with a latest change of 1.22%, a one - week change of 3.33%, a one - month change of 4.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.94% [2]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was at 7.200 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of 0.04%, a one - week change of 0.63%, a one - month change of 0.41%, and a one - year change of - 1.03%. The offshore RMB was at 7.209 with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of 0.78%, a one - month change of 0.54%, and a one - year change of - 1.10% [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On July 31, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6339.390 with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 0.38%, a one - month change of 0.96%, and a one - year change of 14.11%. The German DAX was at 24065.470 with a latest change of - 0.81%, a one - week change of - 0.95%, a one - month change of 0.55%, and a one - year change of 29.68% [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The Malaysian stock index was at 1513.250 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.74%, a one - week change of - 1.76%, a one - month change of - 2.31%, and a one - year change of - 7.14%. The Australian stock index was at 8999.022 with a latest change of - 0.18%, a one - week change of 0.22%, a one - month change of 1.87%, and a one - year change of 9.63% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels showed various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of 0.43%, a one - month change of 0.27%, and a one - year change of 5.64% [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing price of A - shares was 3573.21 with a decline of 1.18%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4075.59 with a decline of 1.82% [4]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.19 with a环比 change of - 0.20. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 26.89 with a环比 change of - 0.10 [4]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.66 with a环比 change of 0.01. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.16 with a环比 change of 0.05 [4]. Fund Flow - The latest value of the A - share fund flow was - 1635.89, and the 5 - day average was - 973.63 [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19360.35, with a环比 change of 917.56 [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of the IF contract was - 18.59, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.46% [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 Treasury futures was 108.485 with a rise of 0.16%. The closing price of the TF00 was 105.725 with a rise of 0.08% [5]. - The R001 fund rate was 1.5634% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5806% with a daily change of - 3.00 BP [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a decrease in the interbank currency market's trading volume and balance in the first half of 2025, with rising repo rates and a reduction in the average net lending balance of large commercial banks. However, bond issuance and net financing reached new highs, with an increase in bond trading and a flattening of the yield curve for government bonds [1]. Group 1: Currency Market Performance - The total trading volume in the currency market for the first half of the year was 78.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.1% compared to the previous period, with an average daily transaction of 6.6 trillion yuan, down 10.5% [2][4]. - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased by 4%, with large commercial banks' average net lending balance dropping by 13%, while money market funds saw a 6% increase in their average net lending balance [6][8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an overall increase in funding rates and greater volatility. The net injection of liquidity through various tools amounted to 36.863 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [4][5]. - The weighted average of DR001 and R001 increased by 5 basis points to 1.62% and 1.73%, respectively, while DR007 saw a slight increase of 4 basis points to 1.78% [5]. Group 3: Bond Market Developments - A total of 27.1 trillion yuan in bonds were issued in the first half of the year, marking a 3.8% increase from the previous period and a 24.1% year-on-year increase. Net financing reached 10.5 trillion yuan, up 3.3% from the previous period [9]. - The trading volume in the cash bond market increased by 11.3% compared to the previous period, with a total of 184 trillion yuan traded [10]. Group 4: Yield Curve and Credit Spreads - Government bond yields initially rose and then fell, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%. The yield curve flattened, and the credit spread narrowed for most bonds [11]. - The yield curve for interest rate swaps shifted upward, with an increase in average daily transaction volume by 22.7% in the first half of the year [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June, with large - bank lending first decreasing and then increasing, and non - bank lending willingness increasing. The second half of the week saw relatively stable certificate of deposit (CD) prices. Considering the 200 billion yuan MLF withdrawal on July 25, the medium - to - long - term liquidity supply in the second half of the month may rely more on MLF operations [1][20]. - Next week, the money market will still face certain pressure due to factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month. However, the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is the key to the movement of funding prices. Although there are still many disturbances next week, the end of the "tax period" and the possible acceleration of fiscal expenditures at the end of the month may ease the pressure on inter - bank liquidity compared to this week. Funding prices may show a slow downward trend, but the decline may be limited due to the approaching end - of - month point [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overnight Funding: Has It Reached the Peak? - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. In the first half of the week, the money market tightened marginally, and in the second half, there were signs of easing. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June. From July 14 - 18, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 increased by 14.62BP and 13.37BP respectively compared to the previous week, and the weekly averages of DR007 and R007 increased by 5.82BP and 3.25BP respectively [11]. - In the first half of the week, factors such as tax payments, special treasury bond issuance, MLF withdrawal, and large - scale CD maturities led to a marginal tightening of the money market. The central bank continuously increased liquidity injections. On July 15, it conducted a 1.4 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation to inject medium - to - long - term liquidity. Both funding and CD issuance prices increased to varying degrees [11]. - From July 17 - 18, as tax payments neared completion and the central bank continued to increase liquidity injections, there were signs of easing in the money market, but the process of easing may have fallen short of market expectations. Large - bank lending increased moderately, and the weighted CD issuance price fluctuated downward, indicating some relief of money - market pressure. However, funding prices remained at relatively high levels since June, with overnight funding above 1.45% [12]. - Next week, multiple factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month will put pressure on the money market, but the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is crucial for the movement of funding prices [23]. 2. Open Market: Over 2 Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase issuance, 42.57 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 140 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase issuance, and 10 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal [27]. - From July 21 - 25, the open market will have 204.68 billion yuan of maturities, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [3][27]. 3. Government Bonds: Nearly 700 Billion Yuan to Be Issued Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, with 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 251.2 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 185.2 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 87.8 billion yuan of local government bond maturities [38]. - Next week, government bonds are planned to be issued worth 679.1 billion yuan, including 375 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 304.1 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 395.3 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 114.6 billion yuan of local government bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds is - 2.03 billion yuan, and the net payment of local government bonds is 26.02 billion yuan [4][38]. 4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be approximately 0.97%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.31 percentage points (the forecast for the end of June was 1.28%) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52 percentage points (1.49% in the same period last year) [44]. - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was 5.49 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was - 3.04 billion yuan, and tax payments were 169.46 billion yuan [45]. 5. Money Market: Large - Bank Lending First Decreases and Then Increases - Overnight funding rates increased significantly. As of July 18, compared to July 11, DR001 increased by 11.39BP to 1.46%, DR007 increased by 3.49BP to 1.51%, R001 increased by 8.43BP to 1.49%, and R007 decreased by 0.14BP to 1.51% [5][47]. - DR001 exceeded 1.4%. As of July 18, compared to July 11, "DR001 - OMO" increased to 5.66BP, "DR007 - OMO" increased to 10.67BP, "R001 - OMO" increased to 8.81BP, "R007 - OMO" decreased to 10.72BP, "R001 - DR001" decreased to 3.15BP, and "R007 - DR007" decreased to 0.05BP [47]. - SHIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 15.1BP and 4.74BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.32% and 1.47% [52]. - CNH HIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 8.43BP and 2.47BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.51% and 1.61% [52]. - Interest rate swap closing rates: The weekly averages of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y rates changed by 0.07BP and 3.11BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.53% and 1.53% [55]. - Bill rates: The weekly averages of six - month national - share transfer discount rates and six - month city - commercial transfer discount rates changed by - 0.1 percentage points to 0.84% and 0.95% respectively [55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.2446 trillion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of R001 was 6.4144 trillion yuan, with an average share of 88.5%; the average daily trading volume of R007 was 746.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 10.3% [57]. - The average daily trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange new - style pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2.1314 trillion yuan, a decrease of 230 million yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of GC001 was 1.8606 trillion yuan, with an average share of 87.3%; the average daily trading volume of GC007 was 199.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 9.3% [57]. - From July 14 - 18, the average net lending of the banking system was 3 trillion yuan, a change of - 83.4 billion yuan compared to last week. Among them, the average net lending of state - owned large banks was 3.62 trillion yuan, a change of - 86.84 billion yuan compared to last week, with an overnight share of 97%, a change of - 0.26 percentage points compared to last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.61 trillion yuan, a change of 3.44 billion yuan compared to last week [62]. 6. Certificates of Deposit 6.1 Primary Market: Maturity Volume to Increase Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the total issuance of CDs was 945 billion yuan, with a net financing of 18.36 billion yuan. Compared to last week's total issuance of 425.9 billion yuan and net financing of - 9.54 billion yuan, the issuance scale and net financing increased [70]. - By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest CD issuance scale and net financing. State - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks issued 344.7 billion yuan, 215.3 billion yuan, 305 billion yuan, and 74.2 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 64.8 billion yuan, 49.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 14.4 billion yuan respectively [70]. - By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 6 - month CDs had the highest net financing. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs were 102.5 billion yuan, 118.7 billion yuan, 186.7 billion yuan, 62.8 billion yuan, and 474.3 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 81.1 billion yuan, - 80.5 billion yuan, 81.3 billion yuan, 47.6 billion yuan, and 54.1 billion yuan respectively [70]. - Next week (July 21 - 27), the maturity volume of CDs will be 1.0699 trillion yuan, an increase of 308.5 billion yuan compared to this week (July 14 - 20). The maturity volume is mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the maturities are mainly concentrated in 1 - year and 3 - month terms [80][81]. 6.2 Secondary Market: Yields Fluctuate Narrowly - This week, CD secondary market yields fluctuated narrowly and decreased slightly compared to last week. The yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year AAA - rated CDs decreased by 0BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, and - 1BP respectively to 1.51%, 1.54%, 1.58%, 1.61%, and 1.62% [94]. - The yields of most CD grades decreased. The yields of 1 - year AAA, AAA -, AA +, AA, and AA - rated CDs changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, 0BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively to 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.65%, 1.7%, and 1.86% [94].