新华财经北京5月12日电（高二山）人民银行12日开展430亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%；鉴于当日无逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放430亿 元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种再度全线下行，跌幅有所收窄。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌1.60BP，报1.4060%；7天Shibor下跌0.60BP，报 1.4900%；14天Shibor下跌0.70BP，报1.5560%。 | | | | 2025-05-13 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | � | O/N | 1.4060 | 1.60 | | ↑ | 1W | 1.4900 | 0.60 | | ゃ | 2W | 1.5560 | 0.70 | | ゃ | 1M | 1.6470 | 1.40 | | 1 | 3M | 1.6620 | 1.00 | | ↑ | 6M | 1.6720 | 1.30 | | 企 | 9M | 1.6760 | 1.00 | | � | 1Y | 1.6840 | 1.10 | 上海银行间同业拆放利率 ...

节后首个工作日，公开市场迎来大规模的逆回购到期。根据人民银行官网，5月6日，人民银行开展4050亿元逆回购操作，操作利率1.5%，仍与此前保持一 致。由此计算，公开市场单日实现净回笼6820亿元。 值得一提的是，包括当日到期逆回购在内，本周（5月6日—9日）公开市场将迎来逾1.6万亿元规模的逆回购到期，单周到期规模升至历史高位。市场流动性 的变化带动了资金面变化，4月末资金价格小幅抬升后，面对升温的"适时降准降息"需求，业内普遍认为，5月资金利率有望跟进下调，中短端国债收益率先 受益于资金宽松而下行。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | ...

港股资金面维持宽松。 美元走弱、人民币走强，美元兑换港元汇率触及强方保证的7.75，这是2020年以来的首次。业内人士认 为，资金涌入香港的情况持续，市场资金面比较宽松，预计港股有望延续上涨势头。 5月6日，香港金融管理局（以下简称"金管局"）在市场卖出605.43亿港元。此前，金管局已在5月3日、 5日，分别向市场注资465.39亿港元和95.32亿港元，累计注资达1166.14亿港元。 金管局发言人表示，近期港元偏强主要由于股票投资相关的港元需求增加，支持港元汇价。金管局将继 续密切留意市场动态，确保港元市场有序运作。银行体系总结余将在5月7日增至913.09亿港元。 6日当天，恒生指数继续上涨，一度触及22647的高点。 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经分析，香港金管局近期买入美元并释放港元流动性，主要目的 是维持港元汇率稳定。对于港股而言，这种操作通常意味着市场资金面宽松，因为更多的港元被注入市 场，有助于提升股市的流动性和投资者情绪。当前金管局的干预也反映出外资对港股市场的信心增强， 这从长期来看对港股是有利的。 博大资本行政总裁温天纳认为，美元弱势比较明显，资金流向其他货币，而港元又触及强方 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 半数固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报（4 月第 4 周） 报告日期： 2025-04-28 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：持券待涨，关注 30Y 利差压缩机会 近期利率持续横盘，投资者普遍看多债市但也谨慎追多。市场即将迎来 4 月经济基本面的确认，关税反复难空债市，持券过节或是较优策略，进入 5 月 后财政供给高峰与宽货币对冲，缴税小月+央行边际转松的态度可能使得资金 利率中枢出现下移，此前负 Carry 现象已经有所缓解。此外也可以适当把握 30Y-10Y 利差走扩的机会，拉长久期，静待利率出现下行机会。 ⚫ 卖方观点：维持乐观，待货币政策落地、基本面验证打开下行空间 截至 4 月 28 日，本 ...

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of April, liquidity has shown a self-driven easing trend, with DR007 and R007 weekly averages down by 7bp and 18bp respectively, and overnight rates gradually falling to 1.6%[1] - The banking system's net lending remained high, with daily net lending exceeding 30,000 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, peaking at 34,700 billion CNY on the cross-quarter day[1][12] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to the week of April 7-11, liquidity is expected to remain loose due to the absence of tax payments and a significant drop in government bond net payments to -490.6 billion CNY, the lowest level since 2023[2][16] - The tax filing deadline has been postponed to April 18, which will limit the impact of tax-related liquidity fluctuations during this week[2][16] Open Market Operations - From April 7-11, the central bank's reverse repos will mature at 763.4 billion CNY, with a total of 9,134 billion CNY in open market operations due[3][38] - The central bank net withdrew 501.9 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, with reverse repos totaling 684.9 billion CNY and maturing repos at 1,186.8 billion CNY[3][37] Bill Market Trends - As of April 3, the 1M discount bill rate dropped significantly from 2.00% to 1.42%, while the 3M rate fell by 65bp to 1.05%[4][41] - Major banks net purchased 118.7 billion CNY in bills, with a cumulative net purchase of 127 billion CNY from April 1-3[4][41] Government Bond Activity - The net payment for government bonds fell sharply to -490.6 billion CNY for the week of April 7-11, down from 546.1 billion CNY the previous week[5][46] - The planned issuance for government bonds during this period is set at 201.9 billion CNY, all of which are local bonds[5][46] Interbank Certificate of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit increased, with 5,497 billion CNY maturing from April 7-11, a significant rise from 1,011 billion CNY the previous week[6][51] - The weighted average issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased to 1.89%, down 4bp from the previous week[6][51]

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan on that day [1][3] - Despite the central bank's continuous net withdrawal, the interbank market remained loose at the beginning of the month, with the overnight repo weighted average rate falling about 9 basis points to below 1.8% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.41% [4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Bonds - The one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded around 1.86%, down from approximately 1.90% the previous day [6] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw collective yield declines, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.5875%, down 0.25 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 1.9940%, down 3.60 basis points [8] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.86% [11] Group 3: Policy and Development - The State Council issued opinions on improving price governance mechanisms, emphasizing the need for macroeconomic policy coordination to enhance price level control effectiveness [12] - A meeting was held in Chongqing to discuss the high-quality development of the bond market, aiming to support local enterprises in issuing various innovative bonds [13] Group 4: Global Macro Trends - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at the end of 2025 from 1.60% to 1.50%, reflecting increased risks of a US economic recession [15] Group 5: Bond Market Events - Fuzhou City is promoting policy guarantee companies to provide credit enhancement for private enterprises issuing bonds [17] - The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps plans to issue 12.80922 billion yuan in local bonds in the second quarter [17] - The 10-year benchmark government bond yield in India has fallen to its lowest level since January 7, 2022 [17]

很多时候不是我们的原则策略有问题，而是在执行时出问题。在入场条件尚未完全成熟时，就迫不及待地、害怕错过地冲动入场，在离场时，尚未等到卖 出条件的成立，就迫不及待地落袋为安，亦或是止损离场条件已经成立，但就是死扛不走。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250402— 川普关税 吓松国内资金（+资金面明显转松+特朗普关税将至宽松预期升温=中下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展2299亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4554亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2255亿元。 资金面明显转松，资金价格回落，DR001下行至1.74%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 02) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.79 | 13 | | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In March, the bond market faced significant challenges, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.70% and closing at 1.80%, peaking at 1.90% during the month[1] - The bond market experienced a "dramatic adjustment" followed by a "gradual recovery" after March 17, when the central bank's attitude softened, leading to a recovery in long-term interest rates[1] - The seasonal easing of liquidity in April is expected to be a key driver for the bond market, with historical data showing a decrease in funding rates in April compared to March[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The central bank has a history of implementing reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in April, with reductions of 0.25 percentage points in April 2022 and March 2023, and a potential cut of 0.50 percentage points in February 2024[2] - April typically sees a significant tax payment period, with monthly tax payments exceeding CNY 1.5 trillion, which could create liquidity fluctuations[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in April is historically low, averaging CNY 639 billion for national bonds and CNY 2.13 trillion for local bonds, indicating minimal disruption to liquidity[2] Group 3: Risk Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on April 2 may increase global market risk aversion, potentially pushing bond yields down and impacting equity markets[3] - High-frequency data suggests that March exports did not show significant improvement, with container shipping rates declining by 11.1% compared to February, indicating weakening export demand[3] - If export data shows a significant slowdown, it may trigger policy responses, including potential RRR cuts and accelerated government bond issuance[3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Non-bank institutions are expected to regain pricing power in the bond market as the market stabilizes in Q2, with funds likely to increase their bond allocations[4] - The insurance sector is anticipated to enhance its bond allocation in April, particularly favoring long-term local bonds, which may see a return to average spreads with government bonds[4] - The strategy for April should focus on higher spread protection durations to mitigate market volatility during uncertain periods[4]

Group 1: Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 382 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on March 4, with an operation rate of 1.5%. On the same day, 318.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 280.3 billion yuan [2][3]. - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of funds for two consecutive days in March, which does not hinder the overall liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bonds - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit traded around 1.99%, showing little change from the previous day [5]. - Major interbank bond yields initially declined but then fluctuated and turned upward. For instance, the 1-year government bond yield was at 1.4600%, while the 10-year yield was at 1.7175% [7]. - The recent trends in city investment bonds (AAA) across various maturities indicate changes in yield spreads [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated a stronger case for interest rate cuts, expressing concerns over economic downturn risks and the potential for prolonged tight monetary policy. If inflation persists, rates may remain at 4.1% for an extended period or could be increased [11]. Group 4: Bond Market Events - The National People's Congress Standing Committee will strengthen supervision over government debt management. Additionally, work has begun on issuing 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds by 2025 [13]. - Longfor Group successfully redeemed the "20 Longfor 04" bond, with a total redemption amount of 2.5 billion yuan [13].

央行公开市场开展141亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有891亿元逆回购到期。净回笼750亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格回落，DR001下行至1.45%。 在懂的行情里搏杀，你是猎手；在不懂的行情里搏杀，你就是猎物。 什么行情是看得懂的行情呢？就是那些可识别、有明显特征的情景或走势，这需要我们自己去总结、运用和修正，最后融会贯通、知行合一。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250106— 股债都不听话（+股市继续下跌+资金面均衡宽松=中下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显下行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 01. 06) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.53 | 21 | | 2. 30 | 0 | 67619.89 | 6227. 17 ...