以下文章来源于富春路97号 ，作者滨康路十二畵生 富春路97号 . 非均衡为常态，均衡是非常态。问题不在于是否均衡，而在于市场朝什么方向变化，而这种变化是有利于形成长期的新结构，还是导致更大的失衡？ 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 滨康路十二畵生 来源 | 富春路97号 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 当三轮黄金牛市的轨迹被并置，我们或许会生出一种熟悉的感觉：技术在进步，制度在演化，但人们对恐惧、贪婪、幸福和财富增长的渴望并未改变。太 阳底下，终究没有什么新鲜事。历史不会简单重复，却总是押着相似的韵脚，而黄金，正是这些韵脚中最古老、也最顽固的一种回声。 01 引言 黄金，一个在人类文明与历史进程中被反复凝视、反复赋义的金属，仿佛自诞生之初就注定与动荡为伴。正如卡尔·马克思《 资本论 》中所 说："金银天然不是货币，但货币天然是金银"。王朝兴衰、货币轮换、战争与通胀周期更迭，舞台在变，角色在在换。但是，当旧世界的秩 序出现裂缝时：黄金，总是在这些抉择的缝隙里，被重新想起。 近半个世纪以来，国际金价先后录得三次史诗级别的上涨行情，它们虽分属不同年代，却又彼此呼应，亦如潮汐起伏。从二十世纪七十年代 美元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued while the uncertainty of global trade increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase, while the monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% and a growth rate of 1.83% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 and a decline rate of 0.49%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9551, with a month - on - month increase of 0.001 and a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.09%; DR007 was 1.49, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.19%; R007 was 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 and a growth rate of 11.44%; the 3 - month AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 1.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13% [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant charts include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][14][17][20] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Relevant charts include the trend of Shibor rates, the trend of the maturity yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [27][28] IV. Spread Overview - Relevant charts include the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [32][36][37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][43][48] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][54] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [61][67]

韩国总统李在明周三试图淡化人们对美国拟议中的100%半导体关税的担忧，称如果华盛顿方面对进口 半导体产品提高关税，很可能会加剧美国的通胀。 韩国总统李在明周三试图淡化人们对美国拟议中的100%半导体关税的担忧，称如果华盛顿方面对进口 半导体产品提高关税，很可能会加剧美国的通胀。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克此前表示，除非韩国芯片制造商承诺在美国本土增加生产，否则它们可 能会面临高达 100%的关税。 李在明周三表示，如果对芯片产品征收100%的美国进口关税，那么美国国内的芯片产品价格很可能会 大幅上涨。 李在明在讲话中还提到了韩元汇率下跌的问题，并指出韩国外汇当局预计韩元兑美元汇率在一个月左右 的时间里会升至1400的水平。 然而，李在明指出，仅靠国内政策是不足以稳定市场的，因为这与日元的疲软有一定关联，他还补充 说，相当于日元而言，韩元的表现则要好得多。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克此前表示，除非韩国芯片制造商承诺在美国本土增加生产，否则它们可 能会面临高达 100%的关税。 李在明周三表示，如果对芯片产品征收100%的美国进口关税，那么美国国内的芯片产品价格很可能会 大幅上涨。 ...

新华财经悉尼1月21日电（记者李晓渝）西太平洋银行和墨尔本研究院21日发布的报告指出，2025年12 月澳大利亚西太平洋银行／墨尔本研究院经济活动领先指数（Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity）的6个月年化增长率从11月经过修正的0.2%上升至0.42%。 哈桑表示，自2025年年中以来，指数增速累计上升0.38个百分点，从2025年6月的0.04%升至12月的 0.42%。其中，两项因素贡献了大部分增幅，分别是以澳元计价的大宗商品价格上涨，以及住宅建设审 批量重新回升。 他表示，2025年下半年，澳大利亚大宗商品价格指数上涨5.4%，主要由黄金和铜价带动。不过，在全 球环境仍不稳定且澳元走强的背景下，这一涨势能否持续仍面临挑战。同时，该国住房建设前景改善所 释放的积极信号在去年年底市场对利率预期出现明显转向后能否继续仍存疑。 哈桑说，澳大利亚央行将于2月2日至3日召开下一次货币政策会议。虽然2025年形成的澳大利亚经济周 期性回升正在延续至新一年，但这一回升在多大程度上推动了去年的通胀上行，以及通胀压力是否会持 续这两个 ...

申万宏源固收研究 【申万固收|利率】基本面延续偏弱，通胀回升是亮点——12月经济数据点评 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Insights - South Korea's exports accelerated in the first 20 days of January, primarily driven by strong semiconductor demand, while automotive exports weakened due to increased tariffs in the U.S. [1] - The export growth rate reached 14.9% year-on-year, surpassing the revised 13.3% growth for the entire month of December [1] - Semiconductor exports surged by 70.2%, supported by global AI and data center investment trends, while automotive exports fell nearly 11% [1] Export Performance - The total export value for the first 20 days of January was 14.9% higher year-on-year, with imports increasing by 4.2%, resulting in a trade deficit of $626 million [1] - Wireless communication devices and petrochemical products also saw significant export growth, increasing by 48% and 18% respectively [1] - The decline in automotive exports reflects a slowdown in global demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs, with shipbuilding exports also down by 18% [1] Economic Context - The strong export growth is seen as a key driver for South Korea's economy in 2023, with semiconductor demand expected to offset declines in other sectors [1] - The recent trade agreement with the U.S. set a tariff cap of 15% on imported goods, including automobiles, which has raised concerns about long-term export challenges for the economy [2] - The depreciation of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar has improved price competitiveness for exports but has also increased inflationary pressures [2] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, signaling a neutral stance amid mixed economic growth risks [2] - Core inflation and overall inflation have exceeded the central bank's target of 2%, raising concerns about rising import costs due to a weak won [2] Trade Partner Dynamics - Exports to China and the U.S. grew by 30.2% and 19.3% respectively, while exports to the EU and Japan declined by approximately 15% and 13% [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，碳酸锂涨停 ——中信期货晨报20260121 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03121254 投资咨询号Z0022985 1 | 2026-01-20 | 行业 | 现价 | 日涨跌幅 (%) | 周涨跌幅 (%) | 月涨跌幅(%) | 季涨跌幅(%) | 今年涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 农林牧渔 | 5691. 5089 | -0. 43 | 0. 52 | -2. 03 | -2. 03 | -2. 03 | | | 国防军工 | 12619. 7793 | -3. 21 | -1. 58 | 6. 37 | 6. 37 | 6. 37 | | | 地时报题 | 4247. 3669 | 0. 25 | 1. 15 | 5.46 | 5.46 | 5.46 | | | 有色金属 | 14397. 0415 | 0.2 | 0.63 | 12. 65 | 12. 65 | 12. 65 | | | 基础化工 | 7785. 683 ...

Union Bancaire Privee全球外汇策略长肯赛拉接受彭博电视台访问时说："我们已进入主要强权资源民族主义大行其道 的时代。"他认为，货币未必是投资这种地缘政治主题的最佳方式，黄金还是最强押注标的。 另据CBSNEWS发文称，对于大多数50岁以上的投资者来说，将黄金分配在总资产的5%到10%之间，既实现了多元化 与增长潜力之间的平衡，又能提供对通胀和市场波动的有意义的防护，同时不会牺牲退休人员可能需要数十年的生计 开支。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间1月21日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.98%报4769.10美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.19%报94.46美元/盎司。市场人士称，美国对欧洲加征关税引发贸易摩擦与地缘风险，提 升黄金避险需求；美联储降息预期及市场流动性关注，叠加国内政策稳定宏观环境，共同推高贵金属价格。 联合新闻网发文称，市场担忧美国与欧洲爆发冲击力强大的贸易战，资金涌向贵金属避险，金价一举涨破每盎司4700 美元大关；再创新高，银价在登上空前新高峰后回落。分析师认为，在地缘政治风险和资源民族主义升温的时代，黄 金成为投资者的理想避险选择。 同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives on January 23, with early elections scheduled for February 8, emphasizing the need for bold investment in risk management and a departure from excessive tightening [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Kishida's administration is characterized by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, raising concerns about rapid government spending and the resurgence of inflation [1] - The traditional correlation between the yen and U.S. Treasury yields is breaking down, prompting HSBC strategists to revise their forecasts for the yen's performance in the coming months [1] - Since early October, the yen has depreciated approximately 7% against the dollar, despite a narrowing yield gap of nearly 60 basis points between Japanese and U.S. 10-year bonds [1] Group 2: Currency Dynamics and Predictions - HSBC strategists noted a "wedge difference" reflecting an expanded "risk premium" for the yen, driven by concerns over debt monetization, declining purchasing power, and persistent inflation with negative real interest rates [1] - The recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds has led to a spike in yields, prompting calls for market participants to remain calm from Japan's Finance Minister [4] - HSBC now predicts the yen will depreciate to around 160 yen per dollar by mid-year, a shift from previous expectations of strengthening to 150 yen per dollar [4] Group 3: Potential Factors Influencing the Yen - Factors that could potentially prevent further short-term depreciation of the yen include a slowdown in the U.S. economy, positive real yields on Japanese bonds, credible fiscal consolidation plans, and checks on aggressive fiscal expansion within the parliament [5][6] - The Bank of Japan's upcoming interest rate decision is expected to maintain the current benchmark rate, which may not provide direct support for the yen [6] Group 4: Government Intervention and Market Sentiment - Traders are on high alert for potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the yen continues to weaken, especially as it approaches critical levels [7] - Japan's Finance Minister indicated that all options, including direct market intervention, are on the table to address excessive volatility [7] - The upcoming press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is anticipated to provide insights into the central bank's stance amid the yen's depreciation [8]

● 本报记者 马爽 近期，国际黄金市场热度持续攀升，价格一路高歌猛进，并迭创历史新高。Wind数据显示，截至北京 时间1月20日17时15分，伦敦现货黄金一举冲破4700美元/盎司整数关口，最高触及4731.54美元/盎司； 纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金期货同步走强，峰值达4738.0美元/盎司，两大核心品种2026年以来累 计涨幅分别达9.38%、9.31%。对于金价强势表现的原因及后续走势，多位业内分析师给出了各自观 点。 东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，近期国际金价维持高位运行，核心驱动力源于市场避 险情绪升温与美元信用进一步弱化。地缘局势方面，继委内瑞拉之后，美国总统特朗普再度向伊朗施 压，但其态度随后边际软化，速战速决的可能性下降，美国最终并未对伊朗采取袭击行动。与此同时， 美欧地区矛盾持续升温，叠加地缘风险带来的不确定性，市场避险情绪持续对金价形成支撑。政策层 面，美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事诉讼，本质上是特朗普施压美联储降息的体现，这一事件进一步加剧了市 场对美联储独立性的担忧，资金做多大宗商品的意愿显著增强，以此对冲法币潜在风险。经济与货币政 策预期上，近期美国经济数据表现尚可，短期 ...