1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel price is in a weak downward trend, with the decline already factoring in the decrease in apparent demand. Further decline is subject to policy interference on the raw material supply side. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The 2601 contract showed an oscillating downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the market anticipates 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, the price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of most steel products declined slightly. For example, the spot price of threaded steel in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 3 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the profit of South China threaded steel increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decrease of 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types declined. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped by 9.9 to 838.1, a decrease of 1.2%. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decrease of 22.5%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 67.3 to 6636.8, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the Coke 01 contract increased by 27 to 1630, a rise of 1.7%. The Coking Coal 01 contract increased by 25 to 1142, a rise of 2.2% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, an increase of 1.2%. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly. For example, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 36.5 to 883.5, a decrease of 4.0% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season without signs of recovery. There is an expected increase in apparent demand during the peak season from August to September, and inventory accumulation will slow down. Steel supply - demand has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Steel prices will follow the expected changes in the coking coal supply side. For the January contract, pay attention to the support level of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease. Steel mill profit margins have slightly declined, but after major events, iron ore production will increase this week, and steel mills' replenishment demand will rise. It is expected that supply and demand will increase simultaneously this week. Port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. Due to high steel mill profitability, iron ore production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and low port inventory provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke Industry**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile decline, with intense price fluctuations. Spot auction prices were stable to weak, and Mongolian coal quotes were weak. Domestic coking coal auctions have weakened, and downstream procurement willingness has decreased. After the lifting of production restrictions, coal mines in major producing areas are resuming production, and market supply - demand has eased. Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and after the first round of price cuts in coke spot, it remained stable. The supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. For both coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with a volatile view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and most futures contract prices also declined [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel product costs and profits changed, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increasing by 1 yuan, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 20 yuan [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0 (a 4.6% decline), and the production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7 (a 2.7% decline) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7 (a 2.2% increase), and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 (an 8.3% decline), and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8 (a 3.5% decline) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 (a 3.6% increase), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 (a 5.6% decrease) [3] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0 (a 3.1% decline), and the global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2 (a 22.5% decline) [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 (a 4.2% decline) [3] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 24.3 to 13849.65 (a 0.2% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 6686.8 (a 0.7% decline) [3] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal and Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and coking coal futures showed a volatile decline. The first - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and coking coal spot auction prices are stable to weak [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline), and the raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 817.3 (a 5.0% decline) [5] Demand - The weekly iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline) [5] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, and port inventory decreased. Coking coal inventory in coal mines, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills decreased, while port and border - crossing inventory increased slightly [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Steel - Steel maintains a weak trend, with iron ore and coking coal showing divergent trends. Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season and has not recovered. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation at low prices from August to September, and the apparent demand is expected to pick up in the peak season, with slower inventory accumulation. The steel supply - demand situation has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Future steel prices will more likely follow the supply - side expectations of coking coal. For the January contract, pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous afternoon's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a stable oscillating trend. On the supply side, the global shipment volume of iron ore has dropped significantly from its annual high, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. It is estimated that the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined, and after major events, the hot - metal production will significantly rebound this week, increasing the steel mills' restocking demand. It is expected that supply and demand will recover simultaneously this week. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory has decreased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profit margin of steel mills, hot - metal production will remain at a relatively high level in September, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The iron ore market is currently in a slightly tight balance, and it is recommended to take a long position on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] Coking Coal and Coke - As of the previous afternoon's close, coking coal futures showed an oscillating downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The spot auction price was stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation was weak. For coke, futures showed an oscillating rebound trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. After the first round of price cuts in the coke spot market, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation follows the futures. On the supply side of coking coal, due to the shutdown of main - producing area coal mines last week, coal mine production decreased significantly month - on - month, but after the end of the parade, production restrictions were lifted, and the main - producing areas gradually resumed production. For coke, due to the previous consecutive price increases, coking profits improved, and northern coking enterprises quickly resumed production after being restricted by major events. On the demand side, the hot - metal production of blast furnaces dropped significantly last week, and steel mills will resume production this week, leading to a rapid rebound in hot - metal production. In terms of inventory, coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased for coke; for coking coal, last week, coal mines, coal preparation plants, coking plants, and steel mills reduced their inventories, while ports and border crossings slightly increased their inventories. The overall inventory is at a medium - low level. It is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with an oscillating view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton each, and most rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained unchanged. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, while the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 20 yuan, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan. The profit of rebar in different regions showed different changes, with North China's rebar profit decreasing by 10 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0, a decrease of 4.6%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7, a decrease of 2.7%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased, with rebar production dropping by 1.9 to 218.7 (a decrease of 0.9%) and hot - rolled coil production dropping by 10.5 to 314.2 (a decrease of 3.2%) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7, an increase of 2.2%. The rebar inventory increased by 16.6 to 640.0, an increase of 2.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.9 to 374.3, an increase of 2.4% [1] Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decrease of 8.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased, with rebar's apparent demand dropping by 2.1 to 202.1 (a decrease of 1.0%) and hot - rolled coil's apparent demand dropping by 15.4 to 305.4 (a decrease of 4.8%) [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decrease of about 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders increased significantly, for example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased by 41.7 to 39.7, a significant increase of 2108.3%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 to - 66.5 (an increase of 3.6%), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 to 42.5 (a decrease of 5.6%), and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, with a decrease of about 0.3% - 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increased by 1.5 to 106.8 (an increase of 1.4%), and the Jinshi 62% Fe price increased by 2.0 to 107.7 (an increase of 1.8%) [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0, a decrease of 3.1%. The global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a significant decrease of 22.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decrease of 1.2% [3] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 0.9 to 317.8, a decrease of 0.3%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The import iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 9007.2, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, an increase of 5.0% [3] Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the 01 contract price decreased by 7 to 1124, a decrease of 0.6%, and the 05 contract price decreased by 10 to 1205, a decrease of 0.8%. For coke, the 01 contract price increased by 6 to 1603, an increase of 0.3%, and the 05 contract price increased by 7 to 1733, an increase of 0.4% [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decrease of 0.34%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.7%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 860.5, a decrease of 5.0%, and the clean coal production decreased by 25.4 to 444.5, a decrease of 5.74% [5] Demand - The weekly hot - metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.2 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.74%. The weekly coke production demand also decreased, with the full - sample coking plant daily average production decreasing by 0.2 to 64.3, a decrease of 0.34% [5] Inventory Changes - For coke, the total inventory increased by 7.8 to 895.3, an increase of 0.9%. The coking plant inventory increased by 1.2 to 66.5, an increase of 1.8%, and the 247 - steel - mill inventory increased by 13.6 to 623.7, an increase of 2.2%. For coking coal, the Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 6.8 to 116.7, an increase of 5.8%, while the full - sample coking plant inventory decreased by 41.2 to 967.3, a decrease of 4.34%, and the 247 - steel - mill inventory decreased by 16.1 to 811.9, a decrease of 2.04% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated coke supply - demand gap increased by 4.9 to - 0.8, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand situation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai government has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents, which boosts the sentiment of the black industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy, thus boosting the sentiment of the black industry [3][6]. - Last week, the production, apparent demand, and inventory of the five major steel products all increased month - on - month. The apparent demand for rebar was still weak despite a low - level recovery, and the inventory increased but the absolute value was not large. The hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern production restrictions. The spot market was weak, and the futures price maintained a weak and volatile trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3160 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a rise rate of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 17,417,436 lots, and a total open interest of 2,897,345 lots [4]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3346 yuan/ton, a fall of 43 yuan, a fall rate of - 1.27%, a total trading volume of 5,457,540 lots, and a total open interest of 1,454,760 lots [4]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 787.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.5 yuan, a rise rate of 0.06%, a total trading volume of 1,844,920 lots, and a total open interest of 410,009 lots [4]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1151.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 64.5 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.31%, a total trading volume of 17,695,850 lots, and a total open interest of 764,344 lots [4]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1643.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 93.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.36%, a total trading volume of 344,282 lots, and a total open interest of 51,526 lots [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. Stimulated by policy benefits such as the relaxation of the Shanghai property market, the market first rose and then fell. Due to the weak fundamentals, steel prices were slightly weak. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3000 (- 20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3380 (- 20) yuan/ton [6]. - In terms of macro - aspects, Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" [6]. - In terms of industry, last week, rebar production was 2210000 tons, an increase of 60000 tons month - on - month; apparent demand was 2040000 tons, an increase of 90000 tons; factory inventory was 1700000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; social inventory was 4540000 tons, an increase of 210000 tons; and total inventory was 6230000 tons, an increase of 160000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3250000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; factory inventory was 800000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; social inventory was 2860000 tons, an increase of 30000 tons; total inventory was 3650000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; and apparent demand was 3210000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [7]. 3. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents [8][9]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, including 53.83 billion yuan of general bonds and 277.76 billion yuan of special bonds [13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel products, including futures and monthly spread trends, basis trends, spot regional price difference trends, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [11][12][13] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US consumer confidence index dropped to a 3 - month low, and inflation data reinforced the Fed's possible rate - cut expectation next month, making the US dollar index weak and global risk appetite cool. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.4 but stayed below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations, domestic risk appetite has risen in the short term. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation [3]. - For assets, the stock index is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term high - level shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is advised; among commodity sectors, black is short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is needed; non - ferrous is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is required; precious metals are short - term high - level shock - strong, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: US consumer confidence decline and inflation data strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite [3]. - Domestic: China's August manufacturing PMI improved slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce service consumption policies. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic easing expectations, raising domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and domestic policy implementation [3]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; treasury bonds - short - term high - level shock, cautious waiting; black - short - term shock, cautious waiting; non - ferrous - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; energy and chemicals - short - term shock, cautious waiting; precious metals - short - term high - level shock - strong, cautious long [3]. Stock Index - Driven by battery, small metals, and liquor sectors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's August manufacturing PMI improved but was below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption will be introduced. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the steel futures and spot markets were weak, with low trading volumes. The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" increases the expectation of steel production cuts. Currently, the fundamentals are weak, with inventory increasing and consumption of some varieties falling. Due to electric - furnace steel复产, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern restrictions. In early September, northern restrictions may further intensify. The steel market may rebound in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices were weak. High steel mill profits led to high daily hot - metal production, but northern restrictions in the coming week made steel mills cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 90.8 tons, and arrivals decreased by 83.3 tons. Mainstream Australian powder supply was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell. Iron ore port inventory decreased slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were weak. With the increase in steel production, ferroalloy demand was okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the north was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with minor fluctuations. New production capacity may increase daily output by 500 - 800 tons in the future. The national silicon manganese enterprise开工 rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%, and daily output was 30170 tons, up 590 tons. Manganese ore prices were weak. Silicon iron was in a weak supply - demand balance, with stable cost support. The national silicon iron enterprise开工 rate was 36.18%, up 1.86%, and daily output was 16125 tons, up 3.43% (535 tons). Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Other Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the soda ash futures contract fluctuated. Supply decreased week - on - week, and new capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand was stable week - on - week, but downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week and were in a loss state. Soda ash has a high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, the glass futures contract fluctuated. Supply increased slightly, with stable production, increased开工 rate, and more production lines in operation. Demand was stable, with weak real - estate demand but increased downstream orders in mid - August. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macroscopically, Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook led to a dollar decline. The US PCE inflation was in line with expectations, and a September rate cut is likely. However, domestic copper demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price may not last [9][10]. Aluminum - Last Friday, the aluminum closing price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest. Aluminum inventory reached 620,000 tons, exceeding expectations. LME aluminum inventory was stable at a neutral level. In the medium term, the aluminum price increase is limited, and in the short term, it will fluctuate due to the peak - season expectation [10]. Aluminum Alloy - Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing the production cost of recycled aluminum plants. It is the off - season, with weak demand. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, but the upside is limited [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some Yunnan smelters were under maintenance, and the tin ore supply was tight but will ease. African tin ore imports declined in July. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak, with a decline in new photovoltaic installations and related industries. This week, the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9161 tons. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. Lithium Carbonate - As of August 28, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, down 0.6%, with a 49.35%开工 rate. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium spodumene production increased. The August monthly production was 85,240 tons, up 5%. The Australian lithium spodumene concentrate CIF price dropped by 7.1%. Lithium carbonate production reached a new high in August, and the profit of lithium spodumene smelting compensated for the decrease in lithium mica. There are still disturbances regarding the reserve verification report of Yichun mining enterprises before the end of September. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon - The latest weekly production was 93,954 tons, up 7.0%. The number of open furnaces increased by 12 to 309, with an opening rate of 38%. Production increased in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon - The August production is estimated to be about 1.28 million tons, and the September production plan may increase. There are rumors of a slight production cut in September, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells were stable, and the component procurement bid price increased, but the market mainstream price did not follow. The latest weekly inventory was 268,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 5,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 340 to 6,880. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to turn weak in a fluctuating manner [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The probability of a short - term缓解 of the Russia - Ukraine situation is low, and the oil price rose slightly due to the risk of reduced Russian supply. Later, the North Sea spot benchmark and discount decreased, and the C - structure deepened. There is still short - term spot buying support, but the seasonal weakening of demand after September may lead to accelerated oversupply. The medium - and long - term bearish expectation of the oil price is strong. Attention should be paid to the OPEC production decision on September 7 and the rate - cut path in September [14][15]. Asphalt - The oil price change was limited, and the asphalt price was stable under cost support. The asphalt spot market was weak, and the basis decreased slightly. The social inventory did not decrease significantly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Profits recovered, and the开工 rate increased significantly. In the future, the oil price may decline due to OPEC+ production increases. With limited inventory reduction, the asphalt market may remain weakly fluctuating in the short term [15]. PX - The PX price rose due to the Zhejiang Petrochemical year - end maintenance plan but did not break through further. The PTA开工 rate is currently low but may increase. PX is in a tight supply situation. The PXN spread decreased to $255, and the PX foreign market price rebounded to $849. The PX market will fluctuate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [15]. PTA - Currently, the PTA load decreased slightly, and the high basis caused by the previous spot shortage has weakened. The processing fee has increased, and there are expectations of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed, and the downstream开工 rate is 89.8%. PTA will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. The load of syngas - based plants is high, with limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is limited. The long - term anti - involution logic is not highly priced. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the downstream开工 recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price decreased slightly due to the sector - wide decline. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the short - fiber开工 rate rebounded slightly. The short - fiber inventory increased slightly. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. It is recommended to go short on the short - fiber in the medium term following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals increased the supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window due to the port price decline supported the spot price. The planned restart of MTO plants and the upcoming traditional downstream peak season indicate a marginal improvement in the methanol fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory suppresses the price. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. PP - The PP plant开工 rate increased, and new capacity was put into operation, resulting in a new high in weekly supply. The downstream开工 rate increased slightly, but the demand was weak. Although there is policy support, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. LLDPE - Current maintenance has relieved the supply pressure. Downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the inventory has decreased. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as the maintenance ends and supply returns, the pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The LLDPE price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectation of new - crop US soybeans in August, the historical yield estimate has been revised. Recently, the export sales data improved due to Sino - US soybean trade negotiation news, and the net long position of CBOT soybean funds increased. With the upcoming harvest of US soybeans, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not optimistic. The pressure of concentrated listing is expected to be better than in previous years, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [18][19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The CBOT soybean futures price may be under pressure in the short term. Domestically, the increase in imported soybean rotation and the high - level procurement of oilseeds in the third quarter lead to a large inventory pressure. The risk of near - month/spot contracts has not subsided, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term. Rapeseed meal has a large high - inventory circulation pressure, but the low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases provide an upward - fluctuation basis [19]. Oils - Southeast Asian palm oil is in the peak production season. Exports are limited by the closure of the Indian low - tax festival stocking window and the substitution impact of international soybean oil. It is expected that Indonesia's low inventory will recover, and Malaysia's inventory pressure will increase. The price difference between international oilseeds and crude oil is under pressure, limiting the overall boost to oils. It is expected that domestic palm oil will be under pressure due to the weakening cost, while soybean and rapeseed oils have increased supply and demand, sufficient inventory, and a low - valued market may be repaired relative to palm oil [19]. Corn - In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases, and the main futures price has entered the range of last year's opening price. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as in last year, the carry - over inventory is low, and there is still a risk of excessive rainfall in the main production areas. Although the planting cost has decreased with the decline in land - leasing costs, under the policy atmosphere of stabilizing the price of important agricultural products and increasing farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's range [19]. Pigs - At the end of August, the reduction in enterprise pig sales drove up the pig price, with an unexpected increase. The official has proposed the core regulation direction of "reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and restricting secondary fattening" to prevent large price fluctuations. The early - August sales and weight reduction have buffered some pressure, and some local areas have started purchasing and storage. The market has a certain willingness to support the price at low levels. The pig price in September should not be overly pessimistic [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The "2025 Version Plan" aims to address the core contradiction of "supply-demand imbalance" in the steel industry, emphasizing quality and efficiency. The plan sets a target of approximately 4% annual growth in the industry's added value for 2025-2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits and optimizing market supply and demand [2][3] - The plan highlights the need for precise control of production capacity and emphasizes the importance of upgrading production processes and equipment to enhance operational efficiency and reduce low-efficiency capacity [3][4] - The report indicates that the steel industry is currently experiencing a significant recovery in profits, with a year-on-year profit increase of 5175.4% in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July, totaling 64.36 billion [5] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The "2025 Version Plan" is a key policy aimed at promoting stable operation and structural optimization in the steel industry, directly addressing the issues of excessive supply and insufficient effective demand [2][3] Industry Management - The plan introduces enhanced industry management measures, including the revision of capacity replacement implementation methods and support for low-carbon steelmaking processes, aiming to facilitate industry consolidation and upgrade [3][4] Equipment and Process Upgrades - Specific measures for equipment and process upgrades are detailed, including the promotion of advanced electric furnaces and the replacement of outdated equipment to improve the efficiency of quality assets [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the steel industry is expected to stabilize and improve, with structural investment opportunities in companies with high gross margins and strong cost control, particularly in special steel enterprises and leading steel companies [5]

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are oscillating at the bottom with the resurgence of favorable policies. Building materials face increasing supply and demand, rising inventory, and accumulating industrial contradictions, pressuring steel prices. Plate consumption maintains toughness, with price support, but the off - season pattern remains unchanged. The release of the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Iron and Steel Industry" by five departments should be noted [1]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,129 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,385 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally fair, with better low - price transactions and increased purchases. The trading volume of steel on the previous day was 102,700 tons [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is oscillating weakly; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore price is oscillating upwards with a slight decline in hot metal production. With the arrival of previously high floating cargoes, iron ore supply has increased. High hot metal production ensures rigid demand, but demand will decline due to the parade. Port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory continues to fall from a high level. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [3]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price strengthened slightly. The main 2601 contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1.74%. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port trended strongly. Traders were fairly active in quoting, and steel mills mainly made purchases for rigid demand. The average daily hot metal production was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of 45 ports was 137.63 million tons, a decrease of 820,000 tons. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 907,000 tons, down 0.66% from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.377 million tons (10 transactions), down 13.94% from the previous day (with a mine trading volume of 850,000 tons) [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is oscillating; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Affected by macro - sentiment, coking coal and coke are oscillating within a range. With the approaching of the parade, the supply of coking coal is tightening, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The expectation of a new round of price increases for coke has cooled down, and the supply has shrunk due to environmental protection policies. The demand is cautious. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of steel mills, inventory reduction of finished products, and macro - policy adjustments after the parade [6]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated within a range, with a divergence in trends. The coking coal main contract rose 0.90%, and the coke main contract fell 0.51%. The customs clearance volume of imported coal decreased, and traders were cautious. Downstream markets mainly made rigid purchases, and the overall trading volume was average [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are in an oscillating state; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The tight supply pattern remains unchanged, and the downward resistance of coal prices has increased. With the approaching of the parade, non - power industries have limited production, and power coal demand has declined from a high level. In the short term, the tight supply situation has not eased, and in the long - term, the pattern of loose coal supply remains unchanged [7]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices declined slightly. Frequent rainfall restricted production and sales, and downstream traders slowed down purchases. At the port, the market was quiet, and coal prices continued to fall. The port is in a de - stocking cycle, and continuous de - stocking will support coal prices. Imported coal was weakly stable, with fewer inquiries and transactions [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention on short - term long opportunities around the blast furnace cost. There are still inventory build - up issues, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace static cost and provides support for iron - water production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a limited impact on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Although the basic supply - demand of double - silicon is resilient, the high inventory still poses a de - stocking pressure. The industry's average profit has been significantly repaired [5][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak and volatile. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line investors in long positions should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments in the second half of the year and future capacity release expectations. However, the impact of policies on the steel sector may be greater than the price itself, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; I2605 closed at 765.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.46%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83%; I2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.74%; J2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan or 0.51%; JM2601 closed at 1175 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 0.90% [1]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis also had corresponding changes on August 28 [1]. Spot Market - On August 28, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280 yuan/ton, Tianjin rebar at 3240 yuan/ton, Guangzhou rebar at 3290 yuan/ton, Tangshan billet at 3020 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index at 103.9. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions also had different performances. Other spot prices such as those of coking coal and coke also had specific values and changes [1]. Steel - The steel market is still in a situation of inventory build - up, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract provides support. It is recommended to go short - term long around 3100 with the previous low as the stop - loss point, and conduct positive - spread rolling operations in the futures - cash market [4][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan" has limited impact. The supply - demand is resilient, but high inventory requires de - stocking. The industry profit has been repaired [5][6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot trading atmosphere has weakened, the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of price cuts in September. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the impact of mine accidents spreads, and industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities on price rallies [7][9]. Iron Ore - The steel apparent demand is rising, but inventory build - up may continue. The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments, but policy impacts may be significant, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for various black building materials, mostly rated as "oscillating". The specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [8] - Iron ore: Oscillating [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [10] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating [12] - Glass: Oscillating [14] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy's mention of stabilizing the growth of the steel industry had a limited positive impact, and the futures market showed a muted reaction. The overall black building materials market is expected to oscillate, with potential for a slight rebound if there are positive drivers. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the coming weeks and the recovery of furnace material supply [1][2]. - The black building materials market's cost has some support, but the expected weak demand during the peak season restricts the upside potential. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The steel industry's growth - stabilizing plan has led to a slight increase in the futures price. Steel spot trading is average, with more low - price transactions. This week, some steel mills resumed production and increased output, resulting in an increase in rebar production and stable hot - rolled coil production. During the transition between the off - season and peak season, rebar's apparent demand has improved month - on - month but is still lower year - on - year, and inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains resilient, and inventory also accumulates under high production. The apparent demand for medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products has weakened, and inventory has increased. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: During the off - season to peak - season transition, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Supply and demand will be affected around the military parade, and the impact of blast furnace production restrictions may be reflected in next week's data. After the parade, pig iron production may remain at a high level, and the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely in the short term. Focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Port trading volume decreased slightly. The spot market prices increased, and port trading volume decreased. Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, approaching last year's level. Total supply is relatively stable. Pig iron production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of a decline in pig iron production as some steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance at the end of the month, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level. This week, port inventory decreased, berthing increased, and factory inventory decreased, resulting in a slight decline in total inventory [3][8]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited negative fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. Due to the pressure on finished products, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has decreased. Factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the available inventory days are at a low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. Although the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished product prices, resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: In the futures market, the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan and the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of price increases have led to an oscillating market. In the spot market, the price in Rizhao Port decreased. As the military parade approaches, the production of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production. Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but due to the military parade, the production of some steel mills in North China will be restricted, and transportation is tightened, resulting in low inventory in local steel mills and common rush - order situations. Some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the upstream coking enterprise inventory is still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, the production restrictions on coke are stronger than those on steel mills. In the short term, the coke market will remain tight. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [11]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: In the futures market, due to the tightening of coal mine safety supervision before the military parade and the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan, the market oscillates. In the spot market, the price of some coking coal decreased. On the supply side, the production of some coal mines is restricted due to accidents and other factors, and safety inspections are increasing. Some coal mines have voluntarily reduced production, resulting in a tightening of coal mine production before the parade. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, and the impact of the military parade is currently limited. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differences. Coking production in some areas is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on - demand, and spot trading is weak and stable. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the previous inventory reduction to a low level and a large number of pre - sold orders mean that there is no obvious inventory pressure for now [3][12]. - Outlook: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [12]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The spot price is stable. The demand in the off - season has decreased, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased significantly to a high level this year. Downstream has limited ability to replenish inventory. As the traditional peak season approaches, some upstream manufacturers are promoting sales by raising prices, and downstream purchasing has stabilized overall. On the supply side, a new production line has been ignited recently, and there are still production lines to be ignited in Shahe. The daily melting volume is expected to increase steadily. As the delivery approaches, the spot price has decreased, and the delivery logic is becoming more dominant. The fundamentals are still weak, and the reverse - spread logic is still stable. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term [14]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the delivery contradiction trading, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long term, capacity reduction through marketization is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market is weakening, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. In the short term, the production in Alxa is affected, but it is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand purchasing. There are still some production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has bottomed out and rebounded. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to increase steadily. The downstream purchasing of light soda ash has remained flat, but the overall downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. As the shipping problem is resolved, the inventory in the middle reaches has accumulated, and the downstream willingness to receive goods is weak. The futures price may return to fundamental trading [18]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [18]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The futures price of manganese silicon first declined weakly and then oscillated upward. In the spot market, a new round of steel procurement has started, and the market is waiting and watching. The spot price adjustment is small. The October manganese ore price quote is flat month - on - month. Recently, port trading has been sluggish, but miners are reluctant to reduce prices, and port ore prices have not fluctuated much. On the demand side, steel mills' profits are good, and finished product production is still at a high level. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, but in September, as the peak season begins and after the parade, finished product production is expected to increase. On the supply side, manganese silicon production has reached a high level this year, and market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is temporarily controllable. Due to cost support, the short - term decline in manganese silicon prices is limited. However, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, there is still downward pressure on prices in the long term. Pay attention to the reduction in raw material costs [19]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The futures price of ferrosilicon continued to decline. In the spot market, trading was weak, but manufacturers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the spot price adjustment was small. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated recently, and ferrosilicon production has gradually reached a high level. On the demand side, steel production has remained stable at a high level, and the steel - making demand for ferrosilicon still has some resilience. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline, but in the peak season, finished product production will gradually increase. In the metal magnesium market, supply pressure has increased, while demand is still weak, and the magnesium ingot price is under pressure [20]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large. Due to cost support, the short - term downward adjustment space for ferrosilicon prices is limited. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and in the long term, the price center will tend to decline. Pay attention to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in major production areas [20].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually bottom out as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with total inventory shifting to accumulation. Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.5203 million tons, down 161,000 tons from the previous week [2]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.6742 million tons, an increase of 4,500 tons week-on-week, while total inventory reached 13.5189 million tons, up 153,900 tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, while electric furnace operating rates increased to 62.82% [2]. Profitability Insights - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 351.8 yuan, up 21.7 yuan week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit averaged 237.8 yuan, down 6.3 yuan [3]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73% from the previous week [3]. Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, with a decrease in the negative impact from the real estate sector and steady growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing [4]. - The steel industry has been in a loss phase since Q3 2022, with over 30% of steel companies still operating at a loss. However, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [4]. - If supply policies are enacted, the speed of supply contraction may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [4].