Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The steel market is currently in a weak supply - demand balance, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1][4]. - Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions have weakened. Last week's industrial data was average, with stable production of five major steel products, declining apparent demand, and gradual inventory accumulation. The production of rebar rebounded, apparent demand declined, and both factory and social inventories increased. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with little data change [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3142 | - 21 | - 0.66 | 4363197 | 2373958 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3305 | - 10 | - 0.30 | 1840077 | 1453320 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 795.0 | - 17.0 | - 2.09 | 1409932 | 566469 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1157.0 | - 14.0 | - 1.20 | 5090547 | 657580 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1722.0 | 5.0 | 0.29 | 98670 | 39991 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. Seasonally weak demand pressured steel prices, but as the macro - situation improved and market sentiment stabilized, steel prices rebounded. They first fell and then rose during the week, with the overall center of gravity declining slightly. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3290 (- 10) yuan/ton [4]. - In 2025, national real estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659.89 million square meters, a 10.0% decrease; the new housing construction area was 58.77 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease; the housing completion area was 60.348 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease; the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease; and the sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 8393.7 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease [4]. 3. Industry News - No relevant content provided 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, etc. [8][10][12][14][16][21][22][25][27][33][35][39]

市场普遍关注降准降息的时间窗口将何时打开。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，根据以往经验，再贷 款利率调降后，总量降息空间也相应打开。随着一季度定存大量到期，银行息差压力缓释，预计政策利 率调降时点在二季度。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4136.16, up 0.33% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79% to 14439.66, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.45% to 4702.50 [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.63% to 3349.50, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.78% to 1553.71 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electric Equipment (3.50%), Nonferrous Metals (2.73%), and Defense Industry (2.65%) [3] - The sectors with the poorest performance were Communication (-1.52%), Banking (-0.90%), and Coal (-0.76%) [3] - Concept indices such as BC Battery (8.56%) and Perovskite Battery (8.24%) showed strong gains, while Corn (-0.14%) and Soybeans (-0.10%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by multiple favorable factors, including the central bank's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [4][6] - The recent decrease in the re-lending and re-discount rates indicates potential for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates this year [6] - The improvement in macroeconomic conditions and corporate earnings recovery are seen as core drivers for the market's mid-term upward movement [6] - Recommended sectors for investment include Oil and Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Nonferrous Metals, TMT, and Coal [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [4][10]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity [4][10]. - There is still room for further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year [4][10]. Financial Sector Focus - Financial institutions will be guided to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [5][12]. - A total of 500 billion yuan will be allocated for consumption and pension-related re-loans, while the quota for technological innovation and transformation re-loans will be increased to 1.2 trillion yuan [5][15]. Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC aims to enhance the accessibility and convenience of financing for small and micro enterprises by increasing the re-loan and rediscount quotas by 500 billion yuan, bringing the total to 4.35 trillion yuan [6][14]. - A dedicated 1 trillion yuan re-loan will be established to specifically support private small and micro enterprises [6][14]. Cross-Border Payment System - The PBOC is committed to developing a multi-channel, comprehensive, secure, and efficient cross-border payment system for the renminbi [8][17]. - There will be an emphasis on international cooperation in cross-border payments and active participation in international financial governance [8][17].

Market Overview - On Thursday, January 22, the A-share market experienced a slight upward fluctuation after encountering resistance, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 4140 points during the day [1][4] - The aerospace, mining, shipbuilding, and communication equipment sectors performed well, while the electronic chemicals, insurance, battery, and jewelry sectors showed weaker performance [1][4] - The ChiNext market outperformed the main board throughout the day [1][4] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index are currently 16.88 times and 52.98 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, indicating suitability for medium to long-term positioning [2][5] - The total trading volume on Thursday was 27,166 billion yuan, above the median daily trading volume of the past three years [2][5] - The central bank has indicated that there is still room for further interest rate cuts this year, aiming to support economic transformation and boost market confidence [2][5] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to encourage long-term capital inflow while maintaining market stability through adjustments in margin trading and transaction regulations [2][5] - The impact of regulatory cooling measures is being digested by the market, with limited short-term adjustment space expected [2][5] - Future market focus will shift back to performance and industry trends, accumulating strength for the next phase of market activity [2][5] - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite Index will maintain a slight upward trend, with investors advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [2][5] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in the semiconductor, electronic components, communication equipment, and aerospace sectors [2][6]

风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政策及经济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超 预期扰动；政策超预期变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期收紧；海外波动 加剧。 责任编辑：王珂 来源：中原证券股份有限公司 投资要点： A 股市场综述 周五（01 月23 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在4143 点 附近遭遇阻力，随后股指维持震荡，盘中光伏设备、能源金属、电池以及航天航空等行业表现较好；航 空机场、保险、银行以及船舶制造等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业 板市场周五震荡上扬，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 后市研判及投资建议 周五A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在4143 点附近遭遇阻 力，随后股指维持震荡，盘中光伏设备、能源金属、电池以及航天航空等行业表现较好；航空机场、保 险、银行以及船舶制造等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市场周五 震荡上扬，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平均市盈率分别为 16.88 倍、53. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pattern of interest rates fluctuating within a range remains unchanged. Inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the fluctuations on a quarterly basis. On a weekly basis, the room for the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond to decline further is relatively small. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the capital market, as well as the performance of 3 - 7Y varieties, while remaining cautious about ultra - long bonds [2][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event Review - In late 2025, the pattern of "stronger supply than demand, and stronger external demand than domestic demand" deepened. In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of real GDP decreased due to the high - base effect, and the year - on - year decline of the GDP deflator narrowed slightly. In terms of structure, the contribution of investment to the economy weakened, while that of consumption and net exports increased [9]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded slightly, mainly supported by external demand. The year - on - year decline of cumulative fixed - asset investment widened, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all showing different degrees of decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales continued to decline, mainly due to the withdrawal of the "trade - in" policy [9]. - Looking ahead, net exports are expected to continue to drive the economy in Q1 2026. Investment is expected to stabilize, and consumption is expected to improve marginally [9]. 3.2 Capital Prices: Slight Increase - From January 16th to January 22nd, the central bank conducted a net injection of 2439 billion yuan in the open market to support the capital market during the tax period. Capital prices continued to rise slightly, with DR001 rising above 1.4% and DR007 rising above 1.5%. The short - term disturbance factor was tax payment [10]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined slightly. Since 2026, the net financing volume of NCDs has been low, indicating that the pressure on banks' liability side is relatively controllable. Structural interest rate cuts have helped banks further reduce their liability costs [10]. 3.3 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From January 16th to January 22nd, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 619.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds increased significantly. Although the issuance amount of single - Treasury bonds remained high, the subscription sentiment was good [12]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Continued Recovery of the Bond Market - From January 16th to January 22nd, the bond market continued to recover. On the one hand, the strong upward trend of the equity market was curbed; on the other hand, the yields of NCDs declined substantially, the liability pressure of banks was controllable, and their allocation ability was strong [14]. - In terms of term structure, the yield of 7Y Treasury bonds declined the most; the performance of 1Y Treasury bonds was relatively weak, mainly affected by the increase in capital prices; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated significantly [14]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is limited information on fundamental data at the beginning of the year. Attention should be mainly paid to the PMI and inflation data in January. If the month - on - month data of PMI and PPI in January improve again, the upper limit of the interest - rate fluctuation range needs to be further adjusted upwards [24]. - Politically, the central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The guiding role of financial data for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is expected to weaken further, and the use of regular tools such as Treasury bond trading will be more flexible. The Ministry of Finance stated that the package of policies to boost domestic demand in 2026 will focus on stimulating private investment and promoting household consumption, and the coordination mechanism between fiscal and monetary policies will be further improved [25]. - In terms of capital, it is expected that capital prices will continue to rise slightly at the end of the month. In the long run, if the central bank adjusts to guide the overnight interest rate to fluctuate around the policy rate, it is equivalent to a substantial and long - term increase in capital prices [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23, equity index futures were mixed, CGB futures rose slightly, and most commodities rose with precious metals leading the gains [2][4][11]. - Platinum, silver, and lithium carbonate were the top three gainers in commodity futures, while crude oil, egg, and LSFO were the top three decliners [12][13][14]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On January 23, in equity index futures, IC rose 3.4% and IH dropped 0.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.07% and TF rose 0.04% [11][13]. - In commodity futures, platinum rose 10.4% with open interest decreasing 4.8% month - on - month; silver gained 8.5% with open interest increasing 2.8% month - on - month; lithium carbonate advanced 7.3% with open interest increasing 0.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - The top three decliners in commodity futures were crude oil (down 1.0% with open interest increasing 4.7% month - on - month), egg (down 0.6% with open interest decreasing 1.4% month - on - month), and LSFO (down 0.3% with open interest increasing 8.0% month - on - month) [13][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) - **Platinum (铂)**: On January 23, it rose 10.4% to 685.90 yuan/g. With a sound supply - demand backdrop and improving macro expectations, it is expected to trend oscillatory and strong. South African floods may disrupt supply, and geopolitical tensions have eased. Future supply risks remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [18][20][21]. - **Silver (白银)**: On January 23, it rose 8.5% to 24,965 yuan/kg. Silver prices have strong long - term bullish support. Trump's softened stance on Greenland weakens safe - haven demand, but industrial demand is expected to grow, and the market has a structural deficit. Short - term prices may be oscillatory and strong at high levels [25][26][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂)**: On January 23, it rose 7.3% to 181,520 yuan/ton. Short - term supply and demand are in tight balance, and prices are expected to trade strong with fluctuations. January supply is expected to be robust, demand is solid, and inventories are decreasing [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - On January 23, President Xi Jinping held a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, stating that China will boost high - quality development through high - standard opening - up and promote China - Brazil cooperation [37][39]. - On January 22, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 and will keep social financing costs low [38][39].

市场普遍关注降准降息的时间窗口将何时打开。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，根据以往经验，再贷 款利率调降后，总量降息空间也相应打开。随着一季度定存大量到期，银行息差压力缓释，预计政策利 率调降时点在二季度。"降准有望在一季度落地，全面降息仍需等待。"银河证券研报分析，财政政策前 置发力，货币政策积极配合财政协同发力，50个基点的降准有望落地。全面降息仍需等待时机，预计全 年会有1次至2次降息，总计调降政策利率10个基点至20个基点，从而引导LPR（贷款市场报价利率）下 行，进而传导至贷款、存款利率进一步下行。（证券日报） ...

1月23日，中国人民银行开展了9000亿元MLF操作，对冲到期的2000亿元MLF后实现净投放7000亿元。 从法定存款准备金率看，目前金融机构的法定存款准备金率平均为6.3%，降准仍然有空间。从政策利率来看，外部约束方 面，目前人民币汇率比较稳定，美元处于降息通道，总体来看汇率不构成很强的约束；内部约束方面，2025年以来银行净息差 已经出现企稳的迹象，连续两个季度保持在1.42%，2026年还有规模较大的三年期及五年期等长期存款到期重定价，近期中国 人民银行下调了各项再贷款利率，这些都有助于降低银行付息成本、稳定净息差，为降息创造一定空间。 值得注意的是，结构性"降息"已率先落地。根据中国人民银行公告，自2026年1月19日起，下调各类再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25个百分点。业内普遍认为，这一操作将直接降低银行从中国人民银行获取再贷款资金的成本，激励银行以更低的利率向小 微企业、科技创新及绿色转型等重点领域发放贷款，降低实体经济综合融资成本。 与此同时，市场也普遍关注降准降息的时间窗口将何时打开。中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时 表示，根据以往经验，再贷款利率调降后，总量降息空间也相应打 ...