Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 proposed to "flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", and China is still in a large cycle of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It is expected that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. The big opportunity for ultra - long bonds may need to wait until the institutional stock market expectations significantly decline and the policy interest rate is cut, or until Q2 2026 or later. It is recommended to focus on the band - trading opportunities of ultra - long bonds, allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds to obtain coupons, and pay attention to multi - asset investment opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Interest Rate Bond Fund Scale and Asset Allocation - As of Q4 2025, the total asset value of interest rate bond funds was 3.0 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.09 trillion yuan compared with Q3 2025. Among them, the values of active and passive interest rate bond funds were 2.06 trillion yuan and 0.96 trillion yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.11 trillion yuan and + 0.02 trillion yuan compared with Q3 2025 [2]. - As of Q4 2025, interest rate bond funds were mainly allocated to bonds (with a scale of about 2.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 96.18%) and then to deposits (with a scale of about 0.04 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.35%). The scale proportions decreased by 0.21 pct and increased by 0.43 pct respectively compared with the previous quarter. For active interest rate bond funds, the bond and deposit allocation scales were 2.0 trillion yuan and 0.03 trillion yuan respectively, with proportions of 95.99% and 1.62%, and changes of - 0.09 pct and + 0.52 pct respectively compared with the previous quarter [2]. - The average leverage ratio of interest rate bond funds in Q4 2025 was 113.1%, a decrease of 0.94 pct compared with Q3 2025 [2]. Active Interest Rate Bond Fund Heavy - Positioned Bonds - From the top five heavy - positioned bonds of active interest rate bond funds, in Q4 2025, the scale proportions of policy - financial bonds, Treasury bonds, commercial - financial bonds, and local government bonds in active interest rate bond funds were 93.0%, 5.1%, 0.3%, and 0.8% respectively. Compared with Q3, there was a slight increase in the allocation of policy - financial bonds and a decrease in the allocation of Treasury bonds, with changes of + 1.5 pct and - 1.7 pct respectively [2]. Interest Rate Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate bond funds decreased slightly. Active interest rate bond funds overall reduced the allocation of Treasury bonds with a remaining term of 1 year or less and 20 years or more and increased the allocation of medium - term Treasury bonds. The average duration of heavy - positioned Treasury bonds in active interest rate bond funds in Q4 2025 fell to 7.9 years. From Q3 2025 to Q4 2025, the duration of interest rate bond funds measured based on heavy - positioned bonds decreased from 3.38 years to 3.23 years, among which the average duration of heavy - positioned interest rate bonds decreased by 0.14 years (the duration of Treasury bonds decreased by 0.70 years to 7.9 years). From the remaining term of heavy - positioned bonds, active interest rate bond funds increased the allocation of bonds with a term of 1 - 5 years (the proportion in Q4 2025 was 58.7%, an increase of 4.8 pct compared with the previous period). From the remaining term of heavy - positioned Treasury bonds, the proportions of Treasury bonds with a term of 1 year or less, (1, 5) years, and 20 years or more in Q4 2025 were 9.9%, 27.8%, and 23.6% respectively, with changes of - 4.0 pct, + 6.1 pct, and - 4.8 pct compared with Q3 2025 [2]. Interest Rate Bond Fund Yield - The quarterly yield of interest rate bond funds rebounded. The average quarterly yield of interest rate bond funds increased from - 0.48% in Q3 2025 to + 0.44% in Q4, and that of credit bond funds increased from - 0.20% in Q3 2025 to + 0.65% in Q4 2025. The average annual yield of interest rate bond funds in 2025 was 0.50%, a significant decrease compared with 4.42% in 2024 [2]. Investment Strategy Changes in Q4 2025 - Since the second half of 2025, the bond market trend has often deviated from the fundamentals and has been mainly dominated by institutional behavior. Securities firms' proprietary trading, bond funds, and annuities have systematically reduced the duration of bond holdings, resulting in a significant increase in the yield of ultra - long bonds. The scale of active pure - bond funds decreased significantly in H2 2025. After the new regulations on public fund sales fees were implemented, the scale of active bond funds may stabilize, and bond ETFs are expected to develop rapidly [2].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market for steel products is in the off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Short - term price drops are due to the pull - back of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For steel products, short - term prices are in a narrow range, and a direction choice may be needed. For iron ore, the demand is in the off - season, and supply is expected to decline further due to seasonal factors, with resistance above in the short - term [2][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory continued to rise, the total output of five major steel products increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory from a low level [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.96%) from the previous day and 45 yuan (- 1.43%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.82%) from the previous day and 41 yuan (- 1.24%) from last week. Other relevant prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or sell down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions at low prices [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement of steel apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. Steel and molten iron output will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have declined, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory has been rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 783 yuan/dry ton, down 8.5 yuan (- 1.07%) from the previous day and 1.5 yuan (- 0.19%) from last week. Other prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or sell down [4]. 3. Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.0946 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.521 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.7 million tons [6]. - On February 2, China Construction Bank supported the signing of the first - batch project of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Shanghai, marking the substantial start of this work [6]. - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.6692 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.7 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.4847 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2887 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.6 million tons [6]. - According to Mulin Research, from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 5, 2 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 29%; the total arrival volume was about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 15% [6].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower but showed resilience with financial stocks, particularly banks and brokerages, performing well, indicating a protective market sentiment [1] - Jinlong Co. saw a rise of over 5%, while Shanghai Bank increased by more than 3%, and several other banks and brokerages rose by over 2% [1] - The largest bank ETF (512800) saw an increase of over 1%, and the top brokerage ETF (512000) also experienced a price rise, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities predicts significant profit growth for listed brokerages by 2025, supported by policy easing measures such as interest rate cuts and the influx of medium to long-term capital [2] - The performance of brokerages is expected to resonate with favorable policies, enhancing valuation expectations and highlighting the sector's investment value [2] - Recent data shows that the bank ETF (512800) attracted a net inflow of 1.09 billion yuan over the past 10 days, while the brokerage ETF (512000) saw a net inflow of 718 million yuan over the last four days [3] Group 3 - The banking sector remains attractive to long-term investors due to its high dividend yield and low valuation, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - Northbound capital has been active at the beginning of the year, likely increasing allocations to the banking sector, which is seen as a low-cost entry point for investors [3] - The bank ETF (512800) has a fund size exceeding 12.1 billion yuan and a daily average trading volume of over 800 million yuan, making it the largest and most liquid bank ETF in A-shares [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a low opening and fluctuated, with the financial sector, particularly banks and brokerages, showing strength against the market trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [1][7]. Financial Sector Performance - Major banks such as Shanghai Bank and CITIC Bank saw stock increases of over 3% and 2% respectively, while Jinlong Co. surged over 5% [1][7]. - The largest bank ETF (512800) rose by over 1%, and the leading brokerage ETF (512000) also saw a price increase, indicating strong investor interest in these financial instruments [1][7]. ETF Inflows and Market Dynamics - The bank ETF (512800) recorded a net inflow of 1.09 billion yuan over the past 10 days, while the brokerage ETF (512000) attracted 718 million yuan in just four days, reflecting a growing interest from investors [3][9]. - The brokerage ETF (512000) has a fund size exceeding 38.8 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of over 1.1 billion yuan, making it a leading investment tool in the A-share market [10]. Future Outlook for Brokerages and Banks - Dongwu Securities predicts significant profit growth for listed brokerages by 2025, supported by favorable policies such as interest rate cuts and increased long-term capital inflows [9]. - Galaxy Securities highlights the attractiveness of the banking sector due to its high dividend yield and low valuation, suggesting a favorable environment for long-term investments [3][9].

2026 年 2 月 1 日 春季行情有望延续 投 资 2026 年 2 月份投资策略报告 投资要点： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn 上证指数 4117.95 深证成指 14205.89 | 涨跌幅 3.76% 5.03% 证 券 研 究 | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | | 沪深 300 4706.34 | 1.65% | | 创业板指 3346.36 | 4.47% | | 北证 50 1531.55 | 6.33% | | 科创 50 1509.40 | 12.29% | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 上证指数月线走势 | 报 | | 告 | | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind | | 上证指数月线走势 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 月度策略/A 股市场 分析师：费小平 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind SAC 执业证 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side has warmed up driven by exports, but the marginal effect of policies on the demand side has weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. There is still a drag from the real - estate market and insufficient consumer confidence, and domestic demand still awaits stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The export data in December was stronger than expected, with exports to non - US regions maintaining resilience [10]. - The central bank has carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Fed decided not to cut interest rates in January, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year [10]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts under the background of weak domestic demand recovery, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after the structural interest rate cut. The bond market's allocation power is strong recently, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation** - Production has warmed up due to exports, while durable - goods consumption has slowed down. The real - estate market drags and consumer confidence is insufficient. Exports in December were better than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilience in non - US regions [10]. - The central bank carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and signaled more room for cuts. The Fed did not cut rates in January, and the expected rate - cut time was postponed to mid - year [10]. - **Liquidity** - The central bank conducted 176.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, with 118.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 20 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [12]. - **Interest Rates** - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, down 2.34 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.29%, down 0.30 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, up 2.00 BP week - on - week [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing price, annualized premium/discount, settlement price, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [17][22][25][27]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: The real GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations, and the economy showed resilience in the first three quarters [42]. - PMI: In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points. The manufacturing supply and demand weakened, with the production index down 1.1 percentage points to 50.6% and new orders down 1.6 points to 49.2 [42][48]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI rose by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month data showed CPI up 0.2%, core CPI up 0.2%, and PPI up 0.2% [51]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [54]. - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In December, industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [57]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and real - estate investment was - 17.2%. In December, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year change was - 6.1% [61]. - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP at current prices was 3.1095 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.30%. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year [70]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the euro - area CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service PMI was 52.4 [76][79]. 4. Liquidity - In December, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector was stable [84][87]. - The MLF balance in December was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates** - Domestic treasury bond yields: The 2 - year yield was 1.38%, the 5 - year yield was 1.58%, the 10 - year yield was 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield was 2.29% [95]. - US treasury bond yield: The 10 - year yield was 4.26% [95]. - **Exchange Rates** - Not specifically analyzed in detail, but the report presents the USDCNH spot exchange rate and the US dollar index [106].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，早盘上涨后横盘，午后有所回落，截至收盘 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.07%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上涨 | 0.06%，5 | 年期 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coils) and iron ore, along with relevant industry news [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The short - term price increase may be due to the central bank's cancellation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises. For steel products, the futures price is oscillating in a narrow range and may face a direction choice. For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season, and the supply is expected to decline due to seasonal factors [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the rebar production of 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major steel products increased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction choice [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, add positions at the lower edge of the oscillation range on price decline, and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3157 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous day and 1.06% from last week [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The main basis and various futures spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. For example, the main basis of rebar was 103 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47% from last week. The daily average molten iron output was 228.1 tons, up 0.04%. The national building material steel mill rebar production was 199.83 tons, up 0.14%. The five - major product social inventory was 890.73 tons, up 2.56% [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The market is still in the off - season of consumption. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The steel apparent demand improvement may be due to the year - end rush for construction. The global iron ore shipment has declined, and the arrival volume has decreased while the port inventory has increased [3] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price broke through the recent oscillation range and then fell back to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, which may provide some support [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Avoid chasing up or selling down [3] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 798.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.98% from the previous day and 1.53% from last week [3] - **Basis and Spreads**: The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 14.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - **Shipment and Inventory**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.7 tons, up 14.83% from last week. The port inventory was 16766.53 tons, up 1.28% [3] 3.3 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.1%, down 0.2% month - on - month. The daily average raw coal output was 197.8 tons, down 1.6 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 549.6 tons, down 10.9 tons [5] - As of January 29, the rebar production was 199.83 tons, up 0.14% from last week; the total inventory was 475.53 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 23.43 tons; the rebar apparent demand was 176.40 tons, down 4.92% from last week [5] - A glass production line was restarted and ignited this week. As of January 29, the float glass industry operating rate increased 0.34% week - on - week to 71.96%. The national float glass production was 105.7 tons, flat week - on - week and down 3.38% year - on - year. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 5256.4 million heavy boxes, down 1.22% week - on - week, a new low in the past year [5][6]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.090 | 112.230 | 112.170 | 112.180 | 0.080 | 0.07 | ...