01 重要事件回顾 1、中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢29日晚在瑞典斯德哥尔摩说，根据中 美新一轮经贸会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制 措施如期展期。 8、美国7月就业增长超预期放缓，美国7月季调后非农就业人口录得7.3万人，远低于市 场预期的11万人。同时前月数据被大幅下修，显示劳动力市场显著降温。 2、7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议重申 稳中求进的工作总基调，延续了4月政治局会议中"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"的 表述。货币政策适度宽松取向不变，但未提及降准降息。会议指出，依法依规治理企业 无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激 发各类经营主体活力。 3、7月30日，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。 这是美联储连续第五次在货币政策会议上决定暂停降息。鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会 议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。 4、7月30日，美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值：二季度实际GDP年化 季率初值+3.0 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market pressure has eased, signaling a potential turning point. The marginal softening of the "anti-involution" policy has reduced inflation expectations, and recent deep corrections in commodity futures have alleviated panic in the bond market, enhancing the willingness of investors to enter the market [4][23][25] - The stock market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to fluctuate due to a vacuum in incremental policy. The omission of "rate cuts" in the recent political bureau meeting suggests a lower probability of new stimulus policies, shifting focus to the implementation of existing measures [5][25] - The report highlights two main investment directions: defensive stocks such as banks and non-bank financials that serve as stabilizers for the index, and opportunities in rare earths due to the US-China competition and price increases, as well as low-position opportunities in other thematic rotations [5][25] Group 2 - The report reviews significant events, including the continuation of US-China trade negotiations and the Chinese government's emphasis on stabilizing economic policies without aggressive measures like rate cuts. The meeting reiterated the need for a proactive macro policy while avoiding mention of "disorderly competition" [13][14] - The weekly market review indicates a rebound in the bond market, with a decrease in manufacturing PMI reflecting short-term disturbances in economic recovery. The report notes that the A-share market has seen a significant pullback, with some sectors reaching high valuations after a rapid increase since June [16][19] - The report tracks key indicators in the A-share and bond markets, noting that the yield curve remains historically low, and the valuation of A-shares has significantly adjusted downwards. The market's turnover rate has decreased, indicating lower trading enthusiasm and a decline in the profit-making effect [28][31][32]

Group 1 - The overall ranking of the fund social media index remains stable, with Baoying Fund replacing Nuoan Fund in the top 19 list [2] - The top content on Douyin focuses on financial interpretations, with Wanjia Fund's analysis of "merger and acquisition policy relaxation" receiving over 30,000 likes [2] - Huaxia Fund and E Fund both emphasize the impact of "interest rate cuts" on investments, resonating with the public's financial concerns, each garnering over 10,000 likes [2] Group 2 - Multiple brand IP programs are featured in the video account rankings, indicating that IP-based operations are a core strategy for content differentiation [3] - The program "Planting Time" by Zhongou Fund uses dance to illustrate investment philosophy, achieving over 8,000 likes [3] - The "Curiosity Camp" series by Harvest Fund provides in-depth analysis of AI in healthcare, engaging users with relatable scenarios and generating high engagement [3] Group 3 - The high-traffic content on the Zhaocai account primarily consists of lightweight graphic articles focused on investment strategies and product education [4] - Live broadcasts on the Wealth account mainly feature product promotions and strategy meetings [5] - The public account strategy combines red envelope benefits with investor education and product promotion [6]

本期为基金社交媒体指数（2025年6月）。 本期为基金社交媒体指数（2025年6月）。 本期总榜保持稳定，仅宝盈基金（TOP19）替换诺安基金（5月TOP19）进入榜单。 本期基金抖音高赞榜上榜作品以财经解读为主。万家基金解读"并购重组政策松绑"热点，用"资本相亲大会"比喻降低用户理解门槛，收获3万+点赞。华夏基 金、易方达基金不约而同聚焦"降准降息"政策对投资带来的影响，关联普通人钱袋子，均收获了上万点赞，显示用户对宏观事件如何影响投资的强关注。嘉 实基金、华富基金、国泰基金则挖掘前瞻性产业趋势，用通俗语言分析高成长性赛道的未来机会。此外，榜首作品华安基金《人生没有白走的路，但走自己 选的路时，每一步都带风》上演励志温情小剧场，精准演绎了毕业季年轻人对未来选择的犹豫，是听父母的决定还是坚持自我，强烈的情绪共鸣引发了10万 用户点赞。 视频号方面，本期多个品牌IP栏目上榜（如中欧基金「种时光的人」、富国合唱团、嘉实基金《好奇心营地》等），IP化运营已成为视频号内容突围的核心 策略。中欧基金「种时光的人」上榜作品用舞蹈艺术《只此青绿》诠释投资哲学，将"长期主义"具象化为文化符号，深度叙事收获用户8千+点赞。富国 ...

热点速评 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议[1]，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。我们对其中涉及金融领域的重点信息进行归纳。 Text 正文 前期政策落实落细。政治局会议提到"要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，我们认为这意味着下半年的政策重点在于延续和落实前期 已经部署的政策，包括推出结构性货币政策新工具、政府加杠杆支持化债和财政发力、保持充裕的流动性环境等。会议也提到"促进社会综合融资成本下 行"，我们认为下半年降准和降息仍有空间，特别是人民币汇率稳中有升缓解了对货币政策的约束，央行对于银行间流动性投放也有所宽松；具体降准降 息时点选择可能仍然有灵活性，根据经济增长情况和海外利率环境相机抉择。 "反内卷"措施更加市场化。政治局会议提到"依法依规治理企业无序竞争""推进重点行业产能治理"，相比7月初中央财经委会议"依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争""推动落后产能有序退出"的提法去掉了"低价""产能退出"的措辞，一方面说明"反内卷"并非单纯"涨价"，另一方面强调政策手段更为市场化、法治 化，与2016年供给侧改革的行政化手段有所不同，也并非"一刀切"关停产能。对于银行资产质量而言，"反 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities A500 Index (000510) experienced a decline of 1.15% as of July 31, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including a limit-up for Yonyou Network (600588) and Digital China (000034), while Daqo New Energy (688303) led the decline [1] - The A500 ETF leader (563800) recorded a turnover of 7.8% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 1.31 billion yuan, and has an average daily transaction volume of 1.934 billion yuan over the past year [1] - The latest scale of the A500 ETF leader reached 16.79 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 11.13% over the past six months [2] Group 2 - The A500 ETF leader has achieved a maximum monthly return of 3.55% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being two months and a maximum gain of 5.34% [2] - The A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, balancing traditional and emerging sectors, including increased weight in pharmaceuticals, new energy, and computing [2] - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while profits decreased by 1.8%, suggesting positive signals for economic recovery and corporate profit stabilization [3]

Economic Outlook - The overall economic situation in China is positive in the first half of 2025, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - Consumer spending has significantly increased, driven by "trade-in" programs, contributing notably to retail sales growth [1][2] - The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year is higher compared to the same period last year, with a notable rebound in consumption and resilient exports [1] Policy Directions - The government will maintain a steady policy approach in the short term, focusing on precise measures without increasing deficits or issuing new bonds [2] - Key policy directions include optimizing budget allocations among provinces, increasing spending on employment and foreign trade stability, and supporting major economic provinces [2] - Monetary policy is expected to emphasize structural and innovative tools, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2][3] Structural Investment Opportunities - The capital market presents structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] - The real estate sector's changing expectations are driving a shift in wealth allocation among residents, with low bond yields prompting capital inflows into the stock market [3] - Historical examples from Japan indicate that even during economic downturns, strategic policies can lead to significant stock market rebounds [3] Thematic Investment Focus - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a long-term investment direction, catalyzing a new wave of technological revolution [4] - Opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in electronics, computing, and communications, are highlighted due to global supply chain restructuring [4] - High dividend yield and low volatility assets are expected to remain attractive to investors [4]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided a framework for economic development over the next five years and set the stage for the second half of 2023's economic policies [1] - The absence of explicit mentions of "real estate" in the recent meeting indicates a shift in focus, although the need to stabilize the housing market remains critical [3] - The meeting emphasized maintaining liquidity and promoting a decline in comprehensive financing costs, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [2] Stock Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded over 30% since last year, indicating a positive trend in the stock market, which the meeting aims to consolidate [4][5] - The effectiveness of measures taken by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and other entities in stabilizing the stock market has been acknowledged, but further support from fundamental economic conditions is necessary for continued growth [5] Commodity Prices and Supply Chain Management - Recent rebounds in commodity prices are contingent on supply-demand dynamics, with the government focusing on regulating excessive competition rather than merely raising prices [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for capacity management in key industries, including photovoltaic, cement, and automotive sectors, to ensure sustainable growth [6] Macro Policy Adjustments - The macroeconomic policy has shifted towards increased investment in consumer spending and improving living standards, with a notable rise in government leverage [8] - The government's ability to implement counter-cyclical policies is crucial for boosting confidence and stimulating demand in the face of economic contraction [8]

人民财讯7月30日电，中信建投研报表示，7月政治局会议聚焦"十五五"规划谋划与下半年经济工作，释 放多重政策信号。会议明确"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期， 需衔接多重时间节点。当前经济回升向好但基础仍需巩固，政策取向保持宽松同时留足弹性，若三季度 数据超预期走弱，四季度或启动增量工具。宏观政策持续发力且注重"落细"，财政加快政府债券发行使 用，货币保持流动性充裕，下半年仍有降准降息可能，政府投资基金精准投向战略领域。同时，着力培 育服务消费新增长点，优化市场竞争秩序，增强资本市场吸引力，鼓励企业家以创新与优质产品抢占竞 争主动，推动经济高质量发展。 转自：证券时报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1][2] - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose orientation, with an emphasis on ensuring ample liquidity and promoting a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society [1][2] - The meeting did not directly mention "timely interest rate cuts," but introduced a new expression regarding the goal of "promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs" [1][2] Group 2 - The focus on utilizing existing structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade is highlighted [2] - Analysts suggest that the necessity for new large-scale incremental policies, including interest rate cuts, has decreased due to the stable external economic environment and the observation period following previous rate cuts [2][3] - There is an expectation that the central bank may consider further interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions if necessary, to create a favorable financial environment for large-scale government bond issuance and credit allocation [3]