Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $74.2 per dry ton week - on - week. The alumina operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons to 98.55 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 78,000 tons to 3.797 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased steadily by 10,000 tons to 44.439 million tons. The domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises' operating rate rose by 0.8% to 63%. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased significantly, and the orders of large recycled cast aluminum alloy enterprises increased steadily. Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in China. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [4]. - For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for alumina, go long on dips for Shanghai aluminum, and go long on dips or adopt the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL for cast aluminum alloy [5]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents graphs of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, real yield, inflation expectation, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Due to strengthened safety production supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ore. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $74.2 per dry ton week - on - week. The long - term order quotes of large Guinean mining enterprises in the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina's built - in capacity remained unchanged at 114.62 million tons week - on - week, the operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons to 98.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 85.9%. - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,963 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47.2 yuan per ton. - The national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,000 tons. Newly put - into - production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north are gradually reaching stable production. Some southern enterprises have completed maintenance, and a Henan enterprise's partial roasting furnace will resume normal operation on October 5 [14]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 45.232 million tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons to 44.439 million tons. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technological transformation project continued to resume production [21]. 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical inventory data of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.7% to 56.6% week - on - week. - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local governments' illegal tax rebate policies. - The orders of large recycled aluminum enterprises increased steadily, driving up the operating rate. Typhoons affected production and transportation, but they have gradually returned to normal. During the National Day holiday, the production arrangements of the recycled aluminum industry are diversified, and the overall operating rate is expected to decline [34]. 7. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.8% to 63% week - on - week [42]. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 54.6% week - on - week. The orders of photovoltaic profile enterprises are limited to the end of September, and the orders of automotive profile enterprises are improving, but the processing fees are decreasing. The construction profile market is sluggish [47]. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 0.8% to 69% week - on - week. Some enterprises increased production after the aluminum price bottomed out. Typhoons affected production in the Pearl River Delta, but production has resumed. Leading enterprises will maintain normal production during the National Day, while small and medium - sized enterprises will slow down [47]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises increased by 1.8% to 67% week - on - week. The State Grid's tender for 130,000 tons of aluminum conductors has been launched, and the orders for the fourth quarter and next year are guaranteed. Leading enterprises are stocking up before the National Day, mainly for rigid demand [52]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% to 58.4% week - on - week. Some enterprises increased inventory after the aluminum price bottomed out. Most enterprises will maintain normal production during the National Day, but the production rhythm may slow down slightly [52].

Group 1 - The central theme of the recent central bank meeting is to maintain "moderate easing" while emphasizing "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments" and "increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation" to support the economy [3] - The central bank aims to ensure that funds flow into the real economy rather than circulate within the financial sector, aligning with the "precise drip irrigation" approach previously discussed [3] - The central bank has expressed a clear intention to "maintain capital market stability" and utilize new tools such as securities fund insurance company swap facilities and stock repurchase loans, which have already seen over 700 listed companies negotiate low-interest loans for stock buybacks [3] Group 2 - There is no specific timeline for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, as the central bank will flexibly adjust based on domestic and international conditions, with a focus on stabilizing the exchange rate [4] - The current fluctuations around the 3800-point mark in the A-share market are seen as a digestion of expectations, with ongoing policy support and stable capital flows, while investors await more concrete economic data [4] - The central bank's recent statements indicate a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market without introducing major new stimuli, focusing instead on implementing existing policies [5] Group 3 - The signals from the central bank meeting suggest a determination to support the economy and capital markets, with a more precise and rhythmic approach to operations [6] - The current market volatility is viewed as a necessary phase for building momentum for future trends, with a focus on sectors supported by clear policies such as technology and inclusive finance [6] - Companies with reasonable valuations and those whose performance can gradually improve with economic recovery are expected to benefit from the policy dividends [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected order of asset performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is coming, providing policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan of financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data in July - August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the expected GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After the decisions at home and abroad, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the over - crowdedness of small - cap funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume declined slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the insufficient liquidity in the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factors [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: In September, the US interest - rate cut cycle restarted, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence increased. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season turned to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the rate of freight decline in September, the changes in the market, and policy dynamics [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The effect of "anti - involution" still exists, the steel mills' restocking is obvious, and the prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, and port ore inventory changes [7]. - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supported by the peak - season expectation, the futures price recovers from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the spot price will rise significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, and the price is driven by the glass market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper and Alumina**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is volatile upward. The alumina price is under pressure due to weak spot and inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment for copper is volatile upward and for alumina is volatile, with different focus points such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro changes and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead decreases, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on supply disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining makes the nickel price highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by costs, the price rises significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is high and volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply continues to increase, suppressing the price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, supply, and new technologies [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns re - emerge, and supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The chemical demand weakens, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt - fuel oil spread declines rapidly. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the price rises. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of over - reaction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is affected by long - term inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand situation weakens. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more enterprise production cuts, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders improve slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on downstream yarn mill purchasing and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is short - term replenishment, but the medium - long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The spread with PP fluctuates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic macro factors [9]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price declines. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Driven by the expected alumina production increase, the price rebounds. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The risk of price fluctuations increases, and attention should be paid to trade policies. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: After the impact of Argentine soybean exports, the price rebounds from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade frictions [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The arrival of raw materials at North China deep - processing plants hits a new low, and the price rebounds slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, macro factors, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: The near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and the reverse spread continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positions are reduced before the holiday, and a wait - and - see attitude is maintained. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The price continues to be weak, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The price fluctuates at a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp is volatile, and the pressure on the 01 contract is more obvious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Downstream orders are weak, and market contradictions are not prominent. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production [9]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on shipment and delivery volumes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil/LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].

Core Viewpoint - The LPR in China has remained unchanged for four consecutive months despite global interest rate cuts, primarily due to constraints from bank interest margins and deposit rates [1][22]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The 1-year and 5-year LPR rates have been stable at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively since May 2025, despite expectations for a decrease following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [1][22]. - The Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut since December 2024 on September 18, 2025, leading to speculation about similar actions in China [1][22]. Group 2: Bank Profitability Constraints - As of the second quarter of 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.42%, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter, limiting banks' profitability [4][6]. - The decline in loan interest rates, coupled with limited room for further reductions in deposit rates, has resulted in shrinking interest margins for banks [4][12]. Group 3: Deposit Rate Limitations - Major commercial banks have reduced their deposit rates significantly, with current account rates at 0.05% and one-year fixed deposit rates below 1% [8][9]. - The potential for further reductions in deposit rates is limited, as excessively low rates could lead to a loss of deposits to alternative financial products [12][13]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Considerations - The LPR's pricing mechanism is tied to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained unchanged at 1.40%, making it difficult for the LPR to decrease [15]. - China's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, balancing internal economic conditions with external pressures, and any future adjustments to the LPR will be gradual [17][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while there may be room for LPR adjustments, significant decreases are unlikely, with a focus on maintaining stability in growth, interest margins, and employment [20][22]. - The possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut is anticipated, which could lower banks' funding costs and create conditions for a potential LPR decrease [18][20].

Monetary Policy Insights - The press conference did not involve short-term monetary policy adjustments, but there remains a possibility of future interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions[3] - The central bank's current stance is supportive, implementing moderately loose monetary policy based on macroeconomic data assessments[3] Financial Sector Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's financial sector has made significant progress in reforming the financial system and enhancing service quality to the real economy[4] - The total assets of the banking sector, along with the scale of the stock and bond markets, rank among the highest globally, indicating progress towards becoming a financial powerhouse[4] Capital Market Developments - The new securities law and related regulations have strengthened the legal framework of China's capital markets, contributing to a fair and just market environment[8] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, reflecting a solid foundation for a long-term bull market[8] Technology Sector Impact - The market capitalization of the technology sector now exceeds 25% of the total A-share market, indicating its growing importance compared to traditional sectors like banking and real estate[9] - Enhanced awareness among listed companies regarding shareholder returns has led to significant increases in dividends and share buybacks, contributing to wealth effects in the market[9] Investor Engagement and Risk Management - Reforms in public fund management have improved investor experience and increased the participation of long-term funds in A-shares, with a 30% increase in holdings compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan[10] - The regulatory focus on risk prevention and investor protection is expected to reduce market volatility and enhance investor confidence[11]

Economic Situation - Current economic pressures on investment and consumption are increasing, indicating that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent[1] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate recovery[1] - Retail sales growth has declined to 3.4% year-on-year in August, suggesting potential consumption pressures in the fourth quarter due to high base effects from last year[1] Policy Timing and Direction - The key window for new policies is expected in mid to late October, with the fourth plenary session of the Central Committee being a significant event[1] - There are four areas where policy space remains: early use of debt quotas, introduction of new policy financial tools, increased likelihood of interest rate cuts, and potential adjustments to consumer subsidy policies[1][2] Financial Tools and Measures - The anticipated scale of new policy financial tools is around 500 billion RMB, aimed at stabilizing investment growth in Q4[1] - Early use of debt quotas could free up significant funds for economic construction, with a potential 2.8 trillion RMB available for 2026[1] - The probability of interest rate cuts has increased, which would lower costs for homebuyers and businesses[2] Consumption Policies - Adjustments to subsidy funds and expanding the scope of "trade-in" subsidies could stabilize consumption growth, which has been pressured by insufficient funding[1] - New policies to support service consumption are expected to be implemented in Q4, with a focus on innovative service consumption measures[1] Overall Policy Approach - The new round of growth stabilization policies is characterized as supportive rather than aggressive, aiming to stabilize growth without compromising quality[1] - The projected GDP growth for the first three quarters is around 5.1%, with a target of maintaining growth above 4.5% in Q4 to achieve an annual target of approximately 5%[1]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR rates for September remain unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, consistent since May, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in China [1][4]. Summary by Sections LPR Rates - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged for five consecutive months [4]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the consistent 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained at 1.40% since May [4]. Market Expectations - Analysts expected the LPR to remain unchanged, aligning with market predictions [3][4]. - Factors such as rising market interest rates and banks' low net interest margins have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4]. Economic Context - Recent macroeconomic data has shown declines in consumption, investment, and industrial production due to various factors, including extreme weather and external fluctuations [5]. - The fiscal policy has been strengthened, with a target deficit rate of 4.0% and an issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan in government bonds, contributing to the current economic environment [5]. Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. - The recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve may provide more room for China's monetary policy to adopt a looser stance [6][7]. Central Bank's Position - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming to create a favorable environment for economic recovery and financial market stability [8][9]. - The central bank's approach is data-driven, adjusting policies based on macroeconomic conditions and trends [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Consumption shows significant differentiation, with strong resilience in service and online demand, while commodity consumption remains under pressure. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of service retail sales is faster than that of commodity retail sales. Some industry policies are optimized to offset the downward pressure. Domestic policies focus on consumption expansion and industrial upgrading. However, real estate risks are still not cleared. The average housing price in 100 cities across the country has dropped by more than 33% from the peak, and the average decline in first-tier cities has reached 29.5%. Currently, housing prices have not stopped falling. The economic structural contradictions are prominent, and further interest rate cuts, optimization of mortgage rates, and expansion of fiscal deficits may be needed to support growth. The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals. [1][8][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, the consumption growth rate continued to decline, with prominent performance in service consumption and online consumption. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, down 0.2 pct from January to July. In terms of sub-items, from January to August, the year-on-year growth rates of commodity retail sales and service retail sales were 4.8% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.1 pct from January to July [9]. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", proposing 19 measures in five aspects [16]. - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau issued a notice to optimize and adjust the personal housing property tax pilot policy, stating that homebuyers who hold a Shanghai residence permit for three years and work and live in Shanghai and purchase a new home in Shanghai as their family's first home are temporarily exempt from property tax [16]. - On September 18, the Fed announced a 25BP interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. The interest rate dot plot shows that the median expectation of Fed officials is that there will be two more 25BP interest rate cuts this year, one more than the prediction in June [16]. 3.2 Meso-High Frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 14, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 6.1 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 6.7 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [15]. - As of September 18, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 614.469 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [15]. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [20]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 14, the container throughput of ports in the current week was 6.652 million twenty-foot equivalent units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [23]. - As of September 19, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 496.3, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [23]. - As of September 14, the postal express pick-up volume in the current week was 3.83 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [29]. - As of September 14, the railway freight volume in the current week was 80.434 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 57.712 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [31]. 3.2.3 Operating Rate - As of September 17, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 78.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 pct. As of September 18, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year-on-year increase of 3.0 pct [36]. - As of September 18, the soda ash operating rate was 85.8%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 pct. As of September 19, the average PX operating rate was 86.8%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.1% [39]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.731 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [43]. - As of September 12, the second-hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.598 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 19, the average pork wholesale price was 19.7 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%, and a decrease of 2.0% compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 5.0 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%, and an increase of 3.4% compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.8 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, and a decrease of 1.0% compared to four weeks ago [50]. - As of September 19, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, and a decrease of 1.3% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.3 US dollars/barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, and an increase of 0.6% compared to four weeks ago [55][56]. - As of September 19, the average spot price of rebar was 3144.2 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a decrease of 3.2% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 809.4 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and an increase of 3.3% compared to four weeks ago [60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 19, the overnight Shibor was 1.46%, up 5.30BP from September 15. R001 was 1.50%, up 5.19BP from September 15; R007 was 1.52%, up 3.29BP from September 15. DR001 was 1.46%, up 5.04BP from September 15; DR007 was 1.51%, up 2.64BP from September 15. IBO001 was 1.50%, up 5.24BP from September 15; IBO007 was 1.54%, up 1.67BP from September 15 [63]. - Most treasury bond yields increased. On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year treasury bonds were 1.39%/1.62%/1.87%/2.20% respectively, down 1.0BP/up 0.5BP/up 0.8BP/up 1.7BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year China Development Bank bonds were 1.60%/1.79%/2.02%/2.29% respectively, up 2.1BP/down 2.9BP/down 0.9BP/up 2.7BP from September 12 [65]. - On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year local government bonds were 1.54%/1.83%/2.02% respectively, unchanged/down 1.5BP/down 0.4BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of AAA 1-month/1-year and AA+ 1-month/1-year interbank certificates of deposit were 1.58%/1.68%/1.60%/1.71% respectively, up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP/up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP from September 12 [67]. - As of September 19, 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 8BP/4BP/4BP/4BP from September 12 [73]. - On September 19, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.11/7.11 respectively, up 109/-99 pips from September 12 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for interest rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. In the past month, it has been decreasing overall. On September 19, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.6 years, a decrease of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 12) [79]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend. In the past month, the duration has increased rapidly and then fluctuated. On September 19, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.03 years compared to last week (September 12) [81]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals [84].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3828.58 points, up 0.22% [4] - The total market turnover decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, indicating cautious trading behavior as the holiday approaches [1] - Margin trading balances decreased by 4.2 billion yuan, reflecting a marginal contraction in leveraged fund sentiment [1] Economic Policy and Monetary Environment - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.0% for the one-year term and 3.5% for the five-year term, consistent with market expectations [2] - The stability of the LPR is intended to maintain continuity in the interest rate environment, as the macroeconomic policy is currently in an observation phase [2] - The central bank conducted a 240.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, indicating efforts to manage liquidity ahead of the quarter-end and holiday [3] Steel Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan for the steel industry aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan addresses the imbalance of excessive supply and insufficient effective demand, focusing on precise capacity control and enhancing high-end product supply capabilities [3] - The initiative aims to stabilize the industrial base and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, potentially benefiting leading steel enterprises through resource concentration and industry consolidation [3] Sector Performance - In the stock market, sectors such as electronics, computers, and non-ferrous metals showed strong performance, with increases of 3.71%, 1.70%, and 0.98% respectively [4] - Conversely, sectors like social services, beauty care, and retail experienced declines, with drops of 2.04%, 1.36%, and 1.31% respectively [4] - A total of 2132 stocks rose while 2990 stocks fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [4]