Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly with the recommendation of companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and Xingtong Co. [3][20] Core Viewpoints - OPEC has agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day, which is expected to enhance the certainty of improvement in the shipping market in Q2 [3][20] - The report highlights the resilience of major ports and anticipates improvements in Southeast Asia's shipping and oil tanker sectors [3][20] - The report suggests that the "off-season" for shipping may not be as weak as expected, with a higher probability of strong performance from May to August [3][20] Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - OPEC's production increase will lead to a cumulative increase of 960,000 barrels per day over April, May, and June, which is 44% of the total expected increase of 2.2 million barrels per day [3][20] - The report notes that April shipping rates have risen against seasonal trends, indicating a potential for stronger performance in the second half of the year [3][20] - VLCC rates have decreased by 9% to $46,903 per day, but the overall market remains relatively strong with expectations for a rebound post-holiday [3][20][21] Air Transportation - The report indicates that oil prices, influenced by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, are relieving cost pressures on airlines [40] - The domestic air travel market is expected to recover, with passenger volumes projected to reach 10.75 million during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 8% [41][40] - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [42] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing high growth, with March volumes reaching 16.66 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [44] - The report emphasizes the potential for market share concentration among leading companies due to favorable policy changes [44] - Recommended companies include SF Holding, JD Logistics, and YTO Express [46] Railway and Highway - The report highlights the resilience of railway freight and highway truck traffic, with railway cargo volume increasing by 3% and highway truck traffic by 2.25% [48] - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines for the highway sector throughout 2025 [48]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 目录 一周回顾 用好用足"，增量政策"备足预案"，资本市场"稳定"基础上还要"活跃"，全面覆盖市场期待。政策关键验证期，A股预期将保持稳定。 易因素。基准假设是，特朗普政策调整缓慢且渐进，美股承压，A股基本面预期和风险偏好恢复有上限。 段性修复；高股息投资重新向港股聚焦。中期展望向"结构牛，全面牛"回归，二季度本就是"结构牛"的调整期，A股消化基本面压力"幅度充分，时间不足"，维持二季度震荡市判断。 历史15%分位以下的行业：保险、小金属、交通运输（航运港口）、电池、 农林牧渔 、医疗服务。 支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。 专题研究 所减仓。2）大众消费品和地产产业链明显低配。3）周期中有色金属大幅加仓。4）腾讯控股首次取代宁德时代成为公募基金重仓规模第一大个股。 0 美元/盎司。短期调整后，未来黄金价格是否还具备上行空间？本篇报告我们将用定量测算的方式来分析黄金在不同情景下的风险和机会。 电 话 会 议 l and and the submit and the more of ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has a substantial backlog of orders, with a total of 290 billion yuan in hand orders, which is expected to support future revenue growth [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 50.02% for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 4.87% based on the closing price on April 22, 2024. The company has also announced that the cash dividend ratio for 2025-2027 will not be less than 60% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company, indicating a commitment to high dividend payouts [1][4]. - The company experienced a significant improvement in Q4 2024, with revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 38.73% and 94.97% year-on-year, respectively, suggesting recovery from previous operational disruptions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 107.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.21 billion yuan, down 19.92% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 showed a strong recovery with revenue of 35.36 billion yuan and net profit of 2.44 billion yuan [1][5]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 15.7%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.87%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. Business Segments - The company reported revenues from various segments in 2024: engineering construction (92.95 billion yuan, down 10.53%), mining and new materials (3.34 billion yuan, up 98.13%), and clean energy (610 million yuan, up 33.26%) [2][5]. - The mining and clean energy segments benefited from acquisitions made in 2023, which contributed to revenue growth and improved gross margins [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.1 billion yuan in 2025, with projected growth rates of 12.32%, 9.19%, and 8.57% for the following years [4][5]. - The anticipated increase in transportation investment in Sichuan Province to 280 billion yuan in 2025, up 7.7% from 2024, is expected to further enhance the company's order intake and revenue potential [1][2].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances with a target price of 54.10 CNY [4][6] Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances is characterized by strong defensive attributes due to its high dividend yield of 6.6% and low foreign sales ratio of approximately 12% [2][4] - Recent operational changes, including board restructuring and digital channel reforms, are expected to drive performance improvements post tariff tensions [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company’s expected dividend yield for 2025 is 6.6%, based on a projected net profit of 32.9 billion CNY and a cash dividend payout ratio of 50% [2] - Gree's foreign revenue contribution remains low, with only about 12% from international markets, minimizing exposure to global trade tensions [2] Operational Changes - The board has undergone a restructuring with younger management taking key positions, indicating a shift towards a more dynamic leadership [3] - The planned share buyback by the distributor, Jinghai Huilian, reinforces the company's value proposition, confirming the attractiveness of its low stock price and high dividend yield [3] - The company is advancing its digital transformation, enhancing sales channel efficiency through the establishment of digital technology companies and nationwide promotion of a cloud-based system [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Gree's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 30.3 billion CNY, 32.9 billion CNY, and 36.4 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 8, and 7 [4][5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 199.3 billion CNY, 216.9 billion CNY, and 232.8 billion CNY, reflecting a growth trajectory despite a slight decline in 2024 [5][10]

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific market particularly favors high dividend yields due to limited earnings growth and low valuations in East Asian economies, where increasing dividends and buybacks are essential for maintaining high and stable ROE [1][6] - In the current macroeconomic environment, value assets that can provide stable returns are becoming increasingly important, as they tend to exhibit higher and more stable dividend levels [2][11] - Hong Kong stocks are naturally more suitable for high dividend investments, with a higher proportion of high dividend sectors such as banking (21.6%) and energy (8.1%) compared to other Chinese assets [3][25] Group 2 - The experience from the Japanese market shows that after a slowdown in growth, dividend assets can yield sustained excess returns, with lower timing requirements except during significant tech industry booms [3][29] - The investment opportunities in Hong Kong mutual funds are broader than those in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, allowing for investment in global markets with fewer restrictions [3][29] - The trend of increasing cash returns among Hong Kong tech core assets indicates a shift towards a more balanced high dividend strategy across sectors, rather than being limited to traditional cyclical industries [3][33] Group 3 - Taiwan's stock market has maintained high dividend yields, particularly among leading manufacturing companies, supported by a strong semiconductor industry and favorable policy adjustments [36][37] - The Taiwanese stock market has shown a 9.5% annualized return from 2015 to 2024, with a significant portion of its market capitalization concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors [36][38] - Despite the overall market's rising trend, the dividend yield of Taiwan's weighted index has not significantly increased, indicating stable dividend policies among leading companies [38]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Factor Name: EP(TTM) (Earnings-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the earnings-to-price ratio, used as a value factor to identify undervalued stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of earnings per share (EPS) to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their EP(TTM) values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong historical performance, with significant excess returns and high Rank IC values, indicating its effectiveness in capturing value[23][26] - **Formula**: $ EP(TTM) = \frac{\text{Earnings Per Share (TTM)}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] Factor Name: BP(LF) (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the book-to-price ratio, another value factor used to identify undervalued stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of book value per share to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their BP(LF) values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong historical performance, with high excess returns and Rank IC values, indicating its robustness in identifying value opportunities[23][27] - **Formula**: $ BP(LF) = \frac{\text{Book Value Per Share}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] Factor Name: Dividend Yield (TTM) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the trailing twelve-month dividend yield, used as a dividend factor to identify high-yield stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of dividends per share (TTM) to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their dividend yield values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor has demonstrated consistent performance, with significant excess returns and Rank IC values, highlighting its effectiveness in capturing high-yield opportunities[23][28] - **Formula**: $ \text{Dividend Yield (TTM)} = \frac{\text{Dividends Per Share (TTM)}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] --- Factor Backtesting Results EP(TTM) Factor - **Rank IC**: 5.56%[26] - **Excess Return**: 9.14%[26] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.19[26] BP(LF) Factor - **Rank IC**: 6.80%[27] - **Excess Return**: 11.41%[27] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.37[27] Dividend Yield (TTM) Factor - **Rank IC**: 5.81%[28] - **Excess Return**: 8.96%[28] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.37[28]

行业观点 方正证券发布研报称，当前煤炭现货价格跌破长协基准价格，后期可关注长协价格对现货价格的支撑作 用。此前该行认为煤价当前价格附近有一定支撑，公式定价的长协价格受影响较小，长协占比较高业绩 稳定性较强。新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利，提升 经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 方正证券主要观点如下： 投资观点 在低利率环境下高股息板块依旧值得重视，而对中长期资金而言高股息是其投资主要选择，尤其是险 资、社保基金等，新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利， 提升经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 投资逻辑一 在供需环境、价格水平、行业利润均有望稳中向好的当下，行业高分红股息标的优势逐渐显著，建议关 注资源禀赋优秀，经营业绩稳定且分红比例预期较高的标的：中国神华（601088）、陕西煤业 （601225）、中煤能源（601898）。 投资逻辑二 本周煤价再度下行，至655元后止跌，价格一度跌破长协基准线675元。由于近两个月煤价下行，部分产 地部分地区煤矿开启检修，产地 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a renewed verification of its dividend attributes, suggesting a favorable window for investment during this period [1] - The report indicates that coal prices have stabilized after a decline, with current prices hovering around 680-690 yuan per ton, which is expected to provide support for future pricing [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields in the current low-interest-rate environment, making coal stocks attractive for long-term investors [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry and Company Market Review - The coal index increased by 4.84%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.26 percentage points [9] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal industry is 10.54, which is lower than the CSI 300's PE of 12.82, indicating a discount of 17.78% [12] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of 462 sample coal mines is 96.3%, up by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [19] - The average daily output of these coal mines is 579.5 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.4 thousand tons [19] Price Trends - As of March 14, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 681 yuan per ton, down by 7 yuan or 1.02% from the previous week [30] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal in major production areas has seen increases, with prices in Ordos and Yulin rising by 15 yuan and 60 yuan respectively [30] Key Company Announcements - Shaanxi Coal's 2024 performance report shows a 4.13% increase in raw coal production to 170 million tons, while total revenue increased by 1.47% to 184.145 billion yuan [47] - China Shenhua reported a 1.9% increase in coal production for February 2025, totaling 27 million tons [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, with a revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47% (adjusted), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.196 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.97% (adjusted) [1]. - The high dividend yield of 6.8% highlights the investment value, based on the company's shareholder return plan, which stipulates a cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% of the distributable profit for the years 2022-2024 [1]. - The consolidation of power assets has enhanced the stability of the company's performance, with coal production increasing by 4.13% year-on-year to 170 million tons and coal sales rising by 9.91% to 260 million tons in 2024 [2]. - Future profitability is expected to double due to the large installed capacity of power projects under construction, with the total installed capacity of coal-fired units in operation at 8,300 MW and under construction at 10,000 MW [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 6.253 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.07% and a year-on-year increase of 23.59% (unadjusted) [3]. - The company’s coal production in Q4 2024 is expected to be 42.717 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.26% [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 22.196 billion, 19.050 billion, and 19.844 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.29, 1.96, and 2.06 yuan [3][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 9, 10, and 10 times, respectively, based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [3][8]. - The PB ratios for the same period are expected to be 1.9, 1.8, and 1.7 [8]. Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend policy ensures a minimum cash dividend payout of 60% of the distributable profit, leading to a projected dividend yield of 6.8% for 2024 [1].