中金研究 中美会谈取得实质性进展，宣布缓解对彼此商品加征的关税。会谈结果好于预期，市场风险偏好明 显回升。短期来看，关税对于美国主要是供给冲击，对于中国主要是需求冲击，经贸会谈结果意味 着美国供给冲击缓解，中国需求冲击减弱。我们测算显示，最新美国有效关税率将从此前的28.4%下 降至15.5%，美国滞胀风险降低。最新关税下，中国出口下行风险得到较大缓解，后续中国国内经济 走势主要看宏观政策力度，尤其是财政政策力度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间5月12日下午3点，中美双方同步发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》[1] [2]。 根据声明内 容，自5月14日起，双方将仅保留对彼此商品加征的10%关税，暂停执行此前加征的24%关税，为期90 天，其余对等关税则全部取消。不过，今年2月和3月美国以芬太尼问题为由对中方额外征收的累计20% 关税并不在此次协议范围内。这意味着在协议实施后，美国对中国商品的关税将从145%降至30%，中 国对美国商品的关税则将从125%降至10%[3]。美国财政部长贝森特在记者会上表示，双方都不希望脱 钩，"我们都希望实现贸易平衡，美国将持续朝这一方向努力"[4]。根据声明，我们测算 ...

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪支撑 关注消费和库存验证 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡，运行重心小幅上移。上周会议结束后首批发 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [8]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material for smelters, but there is uncertainty about whether the quota in Indonesia can increase as scheduled. In April 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's ferronickel production continued to decline from a high level. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises increased slightly, and the output in March increased slightly month - on - month. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: In March, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries declined, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in March. In April, demand was expected to be affected by trade disputes [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters. However, there is uncertainty about the increase of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, and policy risks remain. The Indonesian government has raised the privilege use fee for nickel resources, increasing supply - side costs. Recently, macro - trade frictions have greatly affected demand expectations, and Shanghai nickel will fluctuate [8]. - **Strategy**: Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies in the short term, short - term trading is recommended for the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链结构 (Industrial Chain Structure) - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10] 3.2期现市场 (Spot and Futures Markets) - The report presents the LME nickel premium and discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [12] 3.3供应端 (Supply Side) - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore declined significantly. In December 2024, China imported 36.5763 million tons of nickel ore, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In January, February, and March 2025, imports were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, and 1.535 million tons respectively [20]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 152,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In March 2025, the nickel pig iron inventory was 19,800 tons [23][26]. - **Refined Nickel**: With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand in 2024. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons [31]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a decline from a high level. From January to February 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [34]. 3.4中间品 (Intermediate Products) - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: According to MYSTEEL research, in March 2025, the output of Indonesian MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 37,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase [39]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In January, February, and March 2025, the output was 26,300 tons, 21,200 tons, and 16,700 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027, and the long - term supply concern for intermediate products is relatively limited [43]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 34,571.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase. From January to February 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [46]. 3.5需求端 (Demand Side) - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, recovering to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,061,548 tons, a month - on - month increase [50]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. In 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand still has inertia. In March 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 60,800 tons, rising from a low level [54]. 3.6库存端 (Inventory Side) - **Social and Bonded - Area Inventory**: As of May 2, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [61]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 7, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 8, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,564 tons, also a slight month - on - month decrease [65].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, focusing on significant events and data releases that may impact the futures market, including Sino-US economic and trade talks, various economic data from the US and other countries, and reports on agricultural products and crude oil markets [2][3] Key Events and Data Releases May 12 - Sino-US economic and trade talks will release a joint statement. The talks were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the monthly report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products, which may affect related agricultural futures prices [7] May 13 - The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand report, which may impact related agricultural futures prices [8] - The ZEW will announce Germany's May economic sentiment index, with an expected value of 6.9 and a previous value of -14 [9] - The US Department of Labor will release the US April CPI. The expected unadjusted CPI annual rate is 2.4%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate is 2.8% [10] May 14 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the first ten days of May [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending May 9. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [12] - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13] May 15 - The People's Bank of China will release April financial statistics and social financing scale data. The expected new RMB loans are 765 billion yuan, and the expected growth rate of M2 is 7.5% [15] - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16] - The EU will announce the revised value of the Eurozone's Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly rate is 1.2% [17] - The US Department of Commerce will release April retail sales. The expected monthly rate is 0.1%, and the core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% [18] - The US Department of Labor will release April PPI. The expected annual rate is 2.8%, and the core PPI annual rate is 3.4% [19] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, with an expected value of 225,000 [20] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give an opening speech and speak on the Fed's monetary policy assessment [21] - The Federal Reserve will release US April industrial output. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% [22] - The National Energy Administration will release April全社会用电量 data, which may affect related futures prices [23] May 16 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted quarterly rate is -0.1%, and the annualized quarterly rate is -0.2% [24] - The US will release April building permits and new housing starts. The expected annualized total of building permits is 1.368 million, and new housing starts is 1.45 million [25] - The University of Michigan will announce the preliminary value of the US May consumer confidence index, with an expected value of 53 [26]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI remaining stable [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by a recovery in food prices and travel service prices, with food prices up 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points [2] - The decline in CPI year-on-year was primarily influenced by a 4.8% drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices down 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening compared to the previous month [1][3] - The Producer Purchase Price Index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, indicating increased price pressure in upstream materials due to external demand shocks [3] - Specific sectors such as coal mining and black metal mining continued to see price declines, while non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight increase [3] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The government has intensified macro policies to promote consumption, leading to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in narrowed price declines [4] - High-tech industries are experiencing price increases, with wearable device manufacturing prices up 3.0% and aircraft manufacturing prices up 1.3% [4] - Analysts expect CPI to maintain a moderate trend due to domestic policy shifts towards expanding demand, while PPI may still face downward pressure amid various influencing factors [5]

Core Points - The central government emphasizes the importance of ensuring the "three guarantees" (basic livelihood, wages, and operations) as fundamental fiscal responsibilities, which directly relate to the people's interests [1][2] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to safeguard the "three guarantees" amidst external uncertainties and internal challenges [2][4] Fiscal Measures - The central government has allocated 10.34 trillion yuan for local transfer payments this year, representing an 8.4% increase, with a focus on enhancing general transfer payments to boost local fiscal capacity [3] - Local governments are encouraged to optimize spending structures, prioritize "three guarantees" expenditures, and adopt a "tight budget" approach to free up more financial resources for these guarantees [3] Long-term Strategy - Establishing a robust and long-term system for managing the "three guarantees" is crucial, including a clear responsibility framework that involves county-level management supported by city and provincial levels [3] - Continuous reform of the fiscal and tax systems is necessary to expand local tax sources and enhance local fiscal autonomy, which will help stabilize the "three guarantees" [3] Monitoring and Employment - There is a need for dynamic monitoring of the "three guarantees" situation to promptly address risks and ensure effective budget execution [4] - Employment is a critical aspect of maintaining the "three guarantees," with policies aimed at job stability and quality being prioritized [4]

Core Insights - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a month-on-month decline of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [1][4] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][17] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in food prices, which rose by 0.2%, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points, and a notable recovery in travel service prices due to demand recovery and holiday effects [6] - Year-on-year, the CPI decline was influenced by a drop in energy prices, which fell by 4.8%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI decline [7] - The stable growth of core CPI reflects the resilience of the domestic economy, supported by a recovery in travel demand and the impact of consumption promotion policies implemented since last year [3][8] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline was consistent with the previous month, influenced by international input factors and seasonal declines in domestic energy prices [17] - Despite the overall decline, some industrial sectors showed signs of improvement due to enhanced demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting macro policies, leading to price increases in certain areas [17][18] - The ongoing development of high-tech industries is expected to positively impact related sector prices, contributing to a potential recovery in PPI [18] Future Outlook - Market analysts generally anticipate a moderate recovery in CPI in the upcoming period, supported by new incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption [11][13] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption is expected to lead to a gradual increase in core CPI from its current low levels [14]

Group 1 - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%, driven by a rebound in food and travel services [1] - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points, with significant price hikes in air tickets (13.5%), transportation rentals (7.3%), hotel accommodations (4.5%), and tourism (3.1%) [1] - The core CPI also showed improvement, rising 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a steady enhancement in the overall economic environment [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous month, primarily influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariffs and falling prices of international commodities like crude oil and iron ore [2] - Domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment are showing positive effects, with high-tech industries experiencing growth and some sectors witnessing price increases [2] - Prices in specific sectors such as wearable smart devices and integrated circuit packaging have risen by 3.0% and 2.7% respectively, reflecting the impact of policies promoting consumption and equipment upgrades [2]

Economic Indicators - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 0.2 percentage points [3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by the rebound in prices of food and travel services, with seafood prices increasing due to the fishing moratorium and seasonal fruit prices rising due to limited supply [4] - Year-on-year, CPI showed a slight decline, mainly influenced by falling international oil prices, with energy prices experiencing a broader decline [6] Trade and Investment - In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries reached a record high of $142.3 billion, marking a 6.3% year-on-year increase [8] - Since 2012, trade between China and CEE countries has grown at an average annual rate of 8.8%, with imports from CEE countries increasing by 7.4% [8] - The first four months of 2023 saw China's total goods trade imports and exports grow by 2.4%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [10] High-tech Exports - In the first four months, high-tech product exports grew by 7.4%, amounting to 1.52 trillion yuan, which accounted for 18.1% of total exports [11] - The strong growth in high-tech exports is a significant contributor to China's overall trade performance, reflecting the increasing global competitiveness of Chinese manufactured goods [11] Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises played a crucial role in stabilizing foreign trade growth, with their imports and exports reaching 8.05 trillion yuan, a 6.8% increase, accounting for 56.9% of China's total trade [12] - The growth of foreign trade is also supported by expanding trade relationships with neighboring countries, with imports and exports to these regions growing by 5.1% in the first four months [12]

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - In April, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [1][4] - The increase in core CPI reflects the internal resilience of the economy, supported by ongoing macro policies [4] Group 2: Price Changes in Specific Sectors - Prices in the wearable smart device manufacturing sector increased by 3% year-on-year, while aircraft manufacturing prices rose by 1.3% [1][4] - Service prices showed a steady upward trend, with significant increases in travel-related services, such as airfares rising by 13.5% and hotel accommodation by 4.5% [2] - The prices of black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products saw a narrowing decline, indicating a recovery in demand due to infrastructure projects [5] Group 3: Energy Prices and Their Impact - International oil prices fell significantly due to production increases from countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, leading to a 4.8% year-on-year decline in energy prices [3] - The drop in gasoline prices by 10.4% contributed approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline in CPI [2][3] Group 4: Policy Impacts on Consumption and Prices - Various policies aimed at boosting consumption and upgrading service quality have been implemented, contributing to the recovery of service consumption [2][5] - The ongoing promotion of trade diversification has led to price increases in certain export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging, which rose by 2.7% year-on-year [5]