Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report explores investment opportunities in the Hong Kong bond market under the expansion of the "Southbound Connect." It analyzes the market conditions of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds and Dim Sum bonds, and points out potential investment opportunities based on factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and credit risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Bond "Southbound Connect" Introduction - Launched on September 24, 2021, it allows domestic investors to invest in bonds traded in the Hong Kong bond market through a connected mechanism [9]. - Initially, it only supported spot bond trading and later gradually introduced repo trading. In 2025, measures were announced to expand trading currencies and extend trading hours [10]. - Regulatory authorities have defined the current participants and trading counterparties. The scope of participants is expected to expand to include non-bank institutions such as securities firms, insurance companies, and asset management companies [11]. II. "Southbound Connect" Investment Target Situation Hong Kong Bond Market Situation - The Hong Kong bond market consists of three main segments: Hong Kong dollar, offshore RMB, and G3 currency markets. As of the end of 2024, the outstanding amounts of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds were 195.5 billion, 173.2 billion, and 565.6 billion US dollars respectively, with G3 currency bonds dominating the market [24]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total size of the Hong Kong bond market showed a significant upward trend, reaching HK$2.83 trillion in 2024. The Exchange Fund and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government are the cornerstones of the market, and overseas issuers and local statutory bodies have also contributed to its growth [26]. Hong Kong Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bond Market Status - Affected by factors such as the US dollar interest rate hike, rising overseas financing costs, and changes in the credit environment, the issuance volume of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong has declined significantly since 2022, with negative net financing in the past three years [32]. - As of October 30, 2025, the outstanding amount of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 361.5 billion US dollars, with 1,180 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance and energy, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly over 3 years [37][40]. Dim Sum Bond Market Status - The issuance volume and net financing of Dim Sum bonds have increased significantly since 2022, reflecting the promotion of RMB internationalization and the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" [43]. - As of October 29, 2025, the outstanding amount of Dim Sum bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 1.5666 trillion RMB, with 1,266 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance, real estate, and consumption, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly between 1 - 3 years [48][50]. III. Investment Opportunities in Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is US Treasury bonds. In the first three quarters of 2025, US Treasury bond yields fluctuated and declined in the third quarter. It is expected to remain volatile at a low level in the future [55]. - Investment-grade Chinese dollar-denominated bonds have declined with US Treasury bonds this year, and the spread has narrowed to a low level since 2024. High-yield bonds have fluctuated, and the spread is at a high percentile [57]. - Due to the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the spread of overseas Chinese dollar-denominated urban investment bonds has significantly compressed since mid-2024 [59]. - The spread of real estate Chinese dollar-denominated bonds has shown significant differentiation. The spread of investment-grade bonds has continued to compress, while that of non-investment-grade bonds has fluctuated at a high level [63]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar has depreciated against the RMB in 2025, and the narrowing of the discount has reduced the exchange rate hedging cost, increasing the allocation value of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds [66]. - From a credit perspective, the number of defaults or extensions of local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises has decreased, and the investment strategy can focus on bonds of central and state-owned enterprises with large onshore-offshore spreads [67]. IV. Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Dim Sum bonds is offshore RMB sovereign bonds. This year, Dim Sum bonds have outperformed onshore bonds, and the spread has narrowed to about 50bp [69]. - On the supply side, due to the financing cost advantage and policy support, the issuance of Dim Sum bonds has increased in recent years, and the product structure is expected to become more diverse [71]. - On the demand side, the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" has broadened cross-border investment channels, and the strong demand of domestic institutions for overseas investment is beneficial to the secondary market performance of Dim Sum bonds. Some Dim Sum bonds still have relatively high spreads compared to onshore bonds, offering good value [71].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for China to accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse, highlighting the importance of financial reform and innovation in the context of international geopolitical challenges and the necessity for technological advancement [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Development Strategies - The main development focus for a financial powerhouse should be on internationalization and marketization [2]. - Marketization involves gradually replacing indirect financing with direct financing, creating a multi-layered financial system to support high-tech and strategic emerging industries [2][10]. - Internationalization aims to promote the international use of the Renminbi and establish an independent payment system [3][10]. Group 2: Achievements in Financial Reform - Significant progress has been made in the past five years, including the internationalization of the Renminbi and the establishment of a multi-layered financial system [8]. - The introduction of new market rules has adapted to the needs of a multi-layered financial system, allowing for different requirements for technology companies compared to traditional markets [8][12]. - High-quality opening-up has been achieved by relaxing restrictions on foreign financial institutions [9]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - The current financial resource allocation primarily relies on the banking system, which needs to evolve to include stock markets, bond markets, and derivatives markets [10]. - Establishing an independent payment system is crucial for enhancing the international acceptance of the Renminbi, which requires creating a favorable market environment [10][11]. - The development of a robust derivatives market is essential for risk management, but it must be accompanied by strong regulatory frameworks to mitigate systemic risks [14][15]. Group 4: Balancing Traditional and Emerging Industries - The shift in focus from merely promoting high-tech industries to also enhancing traditional industries reflects a deep understanding of current economic realities, particularly regarding employment [16][17]. - Traditional industries play a vital role in job creation and economic stability, which is crucial for maintaining consumer spending and overall economic health [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in IPO applications from biotech companies, but the recent delay in the IPO of Baile Tianheng highlights potential risks and challenges in the market [1][7][11]. Group 1: IPO Activity - Six biotech companies, including Mindray Medical and Insilico Medicine, submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange within six days, marking a record high for the year [1][2]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's support for the biotech sector, particularly the 18A listing rule allowing unprofitable biotech firms to go public, has attracted these companies [2][3]. Group 2: Company Profiles - Mindray Medical, a leading medical device company, aims to enhance its international strategy and brand influence through its IPO, with a projected international revenue share exceeding 50% by Q3 2025 [3]. - Other companies like Kexing Pharmaceutical and Real Bio are also seeking to expand their international presence and fund R&D through their IPOs [4]. Group 3: Market Environment - The influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong market has reached a historic high, with net inflows exceeding HKD 5 trillion, boosting investor confidence [5][6]. - Despite the positive fundraising environment, there is a shift in investment strategies towards high-dividend stocks, which may impact the biotech sector's attractiveness [5][11]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Baile Tianheng's delayed IPO raises concerns about high entry barriers and insufficient valuation discounts, which may deter retail investors [8][9]. - The company's volatile financial performance and reliance on a significant one-time transaction for revenue have led to skepticism about its long-term profitability [9][10]. - The market's increasing focus on stable cash flows and product commercialization capabilities may pose challenges for companies lacking clear market positioning [11].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy while introducing "maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions" as a new focus in its latest report [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of balancing short-term and long-term economic goals, as well as internal and external equilibria, while reinforcing the need for both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in monetary policy [3] Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC aims to create a suitable monetary and financial environment by closely monitoring changes in overseas central bank policies and analyzing liquidity supply and demand within the banking system [3] - The report reiterates the commitment to a supportive monetary policy stance, with no immediate plans for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions, indicating that further economic data will be needed to trigger any significant policy changes [4] Credit Policy Initiatives - The report introduces measures to support personal credit repair, addressing the impact of past debt defaults on individuals' credit records, particularly those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic [5][6] - The PBOC plans to implement a one-time personal credit relief policy, which will not display certain default information in credit systems for individuals who have repaid loans below a specified amount [5][6] Financial Market Development - The report outlines plans to enhance the bond market, particularly through the development of a "technology board" for bonds, aimed at supporting private technology enterprises and investment institutions [6] - The PBOC's approach to promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi has shifted from a cautious expansion to a more proactive stance, focusing on increasing the use of the currency in cross-border trade and investment [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a systematic solution to enhance China's asset securitization rate, which is currently low compared to the U.S. stock market [1][2] Group 1: Current Market Analysis - China's total stock market capitalization is approximately 80% of its GDP, significantly lower than the U.S. market, which is about 200% of its GDP, indicating substantial growth potential [1] - The U.S. stock market's development is supported by the unique status of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, its global leadership in scientific innovation, and the presence of multinational corporations [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - The first recommendation is to steadily advance the internationalization of the Renminbi, aiming to establish China as a true global trade and financial center [1] - The second recommendation focuses on cultivating the global operational capabilities of Chinese companies, encouraging more firms to become genuine multinational corporations like Huawei [1] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of improving investor protection systems and enhancing the effectiveness of industrial policies as part of a comprehensive approach to increase asset securitization [2] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The article concludes that a multi-faceted, long-term effort is necessary to steadily improve China's asset securitization rate, allowing the capital market to play a more significant role in the national economic landscape [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China's Ministry of Finance successfully issued USD sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, raising a total of $4 billion, with an unprecedented subscription amount of $118.2 billion, marking a record in the history of USD sovereign bond issuance [1][4][11] - The subscription rate for China's bonds significantly exceeded that of U.S. bonds, indicating strong international investor confidence in China [3][6] - The issuance of these bonds serves multiple purposes, including improving the yield curve of USD sovereign bonds and balancing China's sovereign debt structure, which currently has a low proportion of foreign debt [9][11] Group 2 - The issuance is also aimed at demonstrating global investor confidence in China's economy, as evidenced by the willingness of investors to accept a bond yield of 3.646%, only slightly higher than that of U.S. bonds [11][13] - The successful bond issuance reflects China's economic stability and healthy environment, countering recent credit ratings from Wall Street agencies that rated China lower than the U.S. [15] - The deeper strategic intent behind issuing these bonds includes providing financial support to smaller countries burdened by debt, thereby enhancing China's economic cooperation with these nations and promoting the Belt and Road Initiative [23][25] Group 3 - The funds raised from the bond issuance can be used to help these smaller countries repay their debts to the U.S., reducing their vulnerability to U.S. financial institutions [20][22] - Additionally, the repayment of these loans could potentially be made in RMB, indirectly promoting the internationalization of the Chinese currency [25] - The article suggests that the successful bond issuance will lead to increased global capital inflow into China, enhancing the influence of the RMB and potentially reducing the dominance of the USD in international markets [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has announced a complete ban on all non-USD denominated metal options trading, effectively sidelining currencies like the RMB and Euro, which has caused immediate turmoil in the international commodity market. This move is seen as a defensive reaction to the rapid rise of the RMB in the industrial metal sector [2][4]. Group 1: RMB's Rise and Market Dynamics - Over the past three years, the RMB's trading volume in the global metal options market has surged from 30,000 contracts to 270,000 contracts, a ninefold increase, indicating its growing influence [4]. - The share of RMB-denominated orders for key metals like copper, nickel, and cobalt is expected to exceed 30% by the second half of 2024 [4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen its copper futures holdings become the largest globally, with aluminum contract holdings surpassing LME's by 18% for the first time [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions to LME's Ban - In response to LME's exclusionary policy, Alfanar, a prominent copper wire manufacturer in the Middle East, announced that it would settle long-term orders in RMB starting from Q4 2025, directly referencing Shanghai Futures Exchange prices [9]. - The Dubai Commodity Exchange plans to launch RMB-denominated copper futures contracts in 2026, indicating a shift towards embracing the RMB in the Middle East [11]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has increased the RMB liquidity pool to 110 billion HKD to support cross-border metal trade settlements in RMB [11]. Group 3: Implications for Global Currency Dynamics - The LME's ban is viewed as a short-sighted move that undermines its international credibility and limits its cooperation with resource-rich countries [6][8]. - The weakening of the USD's dominance in global resource allocation is prompting countries to seek alternative currencies, with the RMB emerging as a viable option due to its growing acceptance and the stability it offers [8][13]. - The RMB's rise is not about replacing the USD or Euro but about creating a more balanced and stable multi-currency system, especially in light of the risks associated with over-reliance on a single currency [17][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB Internationalization - The RMB's internationalization is expected to continue as countries look for more stable and convenient alternatives to the USD, particularly in resource-rich nations [19]. - The LME's attempt to counter market forces with administrative measures is unlikely to succeed, as market demand and industrial needs cannot be easily manipulated [21]. - The ongoing evolution of the global currency system will be a long-term process, with the RMB's role becoming increasingly significant as China solidifies its industrial advantages and enhances financial services [21].

11月12日，沪金前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓16.84万手，空单持仓7.01万手，多空比 2.4。净持仓为9.83万手，相较上日减少2513手。 11月13日，上期所黄金期货仓单90426千克，环比上个交易日增加810千克。 分析观点： 数据显示，11月13日上海黄金现货价格报价957.80元/克，相较于期货主力价格（961.22元/克）贴水3.42 元/克。 （11月13日）全国黄金价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 957元/克 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海黄金现货市场 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 958.72元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | 期货市场上看，11月13日收盘，沪金期货主力合约报961.22元/克，涨幅1.56%，最高触及963.96元/克， 最低下探945.96元/克，日内成交量达307850手。 【市场资讯】 恒泰期货研报：首先，美联储年内降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避 ...

Core Insights - The issuance of $4 billion in Chinese sovereign bonds attracted a staggering $118.2 billion in subscriptions, achieving a subscription rate 30 times higher than the amount issued, indicating a strong global interest in Chinese dollar bonds compared to U.S. Treasury bonds [4][6]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The Chinese bonds had competitive interest rates, with a 3-year rate of 3.646% and a 5-year rate of 3.787%, which are nearly on par with U.S. Treasury rates [3][4]. - The distribution of investors showed that 53% of the subscription funds came from Asia, 25% from Europe, 16% from the Middle East, and 6% from U.S. investors, highlighting a diverse global interest [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Context - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.1 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6]. - China, with over $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, is not issuing dollar bonds due to a cash shortage but rather as a strategic financial maneuver [6][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The issuance sets a new interest rate benchmark for Chinese enterprises seeking to raise funds in international markets, providing a reference point for future dollar bond issuances [8]. - The funds raised will support infrastructure projects along the Belt and Road Initiative, creating a cycle where international capital flows into China and then is reinvested globally [8][10]. Group 4: Global Financial Dynamics - This issuance allows China to redefine the concept of "safe assets" in the international financial system, challenging existing credit ratings by demonstrating strong market demand [6][10]. - By becoming an active dollar allocator rather than a passive holder, China is reshaping global capital flows and potentially paving the way for the internationalization of the renminbi [10][14]. Group 5: Hong Kong's Role - The choice to issue bonds in Hong Kong reinforces its status as an international financial center, with China having issued a total of $25 billion in sovereign bonds there since 2017 [12]. - The high subscription rates for Chinese bonds compared to U.S. Treasuries suggest that international investors view Chinese sovereign credit ratings as comparable to those of the U.S. [12][14].

受美欧制裁影响，俄罗斯减少了美元和欧元的贸易结算。俄罗斯主张称，2024年中俄贸易额达到创历史 新高的2450亿美元，99%的结算用卢布和人民币进行。自2022年以来，俄罗斯企业陆续发行了人民币计 价公司债。 由于军费不断膨胀，补充财政收入的必要性也在提高。预计俄罗斯2025年的财政赤字将占国内生产总值 （GDP）的2.6%，比2024年的1.7%扩大。匿名接受采访的俄罗斯经济学家认为："作为被认为风险较高 的卢布计价的替代选项，决定以人民币计价发行"。 俄罗斯总统普京（资料图，reuters） 俄罗斯从海外融资依然困难。俄乌冲突后外国投资者对俄罗斯国债的交易大幅减少。俄罗斯央行的数据 显示，非居民持有俄罗斯国债（以卢布计价）的比例在10月份仅为3.9%。俄乌冲突前约为2成。 在财政赤字扩大的背景下，俄政府寻求向通过对中国能源出口而持有大量人民币的企业等筹资…… 俄罗斯财政部11月12日宣布，将首次在俄罗斯发行以人民币计价的国内债券。在乌克兰问题长期化导致 财政赤字扩大的背景下，俄政府正寻求向通过对中国能源出口而持有大量人民币的企业等筹措资金。 12月8日将发行偿还期限为3～7年的国债。发行额将根据12月2日 ...