Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts, OMO rate cuts (and guiding LPR down), and structural monetary policy tool rate cuts within this year is relatively high. Different types of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts have different impacts on the bond market [1][8]. - Reserve requirement ratio cuts can release long - term funds at zero cost, stabilize bank net interest margins, and boost confidence, but they do not necessarily lead to a decline in bond yields. DR007 has already dropped significantly, and it is expected to steadily fall to near the OMO rate in the near future [2][9]. - Structural monetary policy tool rate cuts are slightly bearish for the bond market. In most cases, OMO rate cuts lead to a decline in bond yields. The 7D OMO rate may drop from the current 1.5% to 1.3%, and the 10Y Treasury yield may reach 1.5% this year [3][12]. - Bond investment should not adopt an "end - game mindset". When the market interest rate drops excessively, regulators will guide market expectations, and investors should maintain rationality in bond pricing [3][12]. 3. Summary by Related Content "Timely Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Rate Cuts" and Their Impact on the Bond Market - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, called for "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and rate cuts", different from the "opportunistic" statement in the first - quarter monetary policy committee meeting on March 18. "Timely" emphasizes adapting to the actual economic needs [1][8]. - The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts, OMO rate cuts (and guiding LPR down), and structural monetary policy tool rate cuts within this year is high, but their impacts on the bond market vary [1][8]. Impact of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts - Reserve requirement ratio cuts can release long - term funds at zero cost, stabilize bank net interest margins, and have a signaling effect, but they do not necessarily lead to a decline in bond yields [2][9]. - Although no reserve requirement ratio cut has been implemented, DR007 has declined significantly. The average value of DR007 from early April to now is 1.72%, lower than the 1.88% average in March. It is expected to fall to near the OMO rate in the future [2][9]. Impact of Different Types of Rate Cuts - Structural monetary policy tool rate cuts are slightly bearish for the bond market as they do not guide DR down and reduce the urgency of OMO rate and DR cuts in the next stage [3][12]. - In most cases, OMO rate cuts lead to a decline in bond yields. The 7D OMO rate may drop from 1.5% to 1.3%, and the 10Y Treasury yield may reach 1.5% this year. Currently, bond yields have a relatively small upside and a relatively high probability of decline [3][12].

央广网北京4月23日消息（记者 樊瑞）21日下午，中国金融四十人论坛（下称CF40）发布2025年第一季度宏观政策报告。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世 界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，在扩大消费的政策选择与排序中，最优先和最见成效的是逆周期政策，可带动全社会收入和消费在短期内显著增加。 降低政策利率和扩大公共投资是逆周期政策的重点内容。 对于降准降息将在何时落地，张斌在接受央广财经记者提问时表示，"央行强调适时降准降息，具体要看经济数据还有中央统一部署。我觉得不会太远。" 推进促消费一揽子方案循序落实 张斌指出，在当下的国内外环境下，提振消费的重要性得到凸显。张斌介绍，过去二十年中国居民消费率经历"下降—上升—再下降"的三阶段波动，主要由 消费倾向变化与初次分配收入占比变化驱动。消费率变化背后的主导因素是工业化潮起带来2000-2010年的消费率下降，潮落带来2010年以后的消费率上 升，疫情带来短暂的消费率再次下降但并不改变消费率上升趋势。 CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌 提振消费是扩大内需、做大做强国内大循环的重中之重。3月16日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消 ...

近日，央行公布的两个期限品种的贷款市场报价利率(LPR)与上月相比均保持不变，此前市场所期待 的"降息"未能实现。不过，债市对这一情况反应较为平淡，10年期国债到期收益率虽有小幅上行，但仍 稳定维持在1.7%左右的水平。 虽然没有"降息"让一些交易人员感到失望，但也有不少机构人士认为，短期不"降息"也在预期之内。 中证鹏元研发部高级研究员李席丰对证券时报记者表示："首先，4月以来央行7天期逆回购利率保持不 变，LPR的定价基础没有变化。其次，一季度经济取得良好开局，叠加股市修复较强、流动性缺口较 小，4月调降LPR的必要性下降。最后，当前银行净息差、企业和个人的贷款利率都处于历史低位，银 行缺乏进一步下调LPR的动力。" 国金资管固收团队也向证券时报记者分享了类似的观点。该团队认为，目前仍需时间观察美国所谓"对 等关税"等外围变化对经济的影响，当前或并非降息合意时点。另外，去年四季度银行净息差环比收窄 至1.52%，降息或需等待银行负债端成本下降。 "4月以来央行7天期逆回购利率保持不变。这意味着4月LPR报价的定价基础并未发生变化，已在很大程 度上预示4月LPR报价会保持不动。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也 ...

第一财经资讯 . 以下文章来源于第一财经资讯 ，作者周楠 近期，野村在北京举行媒体交流会，邀请野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士分享关于中国宏观 经济的最新观点。以下为《第一财经》的专篇报道。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 关税风波持续近半 个月，其间，全球金融市场经历大幅震荡，人民币汇率波动加剧，A股市 场则先抑后 扬，在"国家队"出手稳市之后迅速回升。 "过去两个星期，国内的政策（执行）做得非常好。在前期非常关键的几天时间里，一个极为 重要的政策是，央行给'国家队'提供再贷款，这实际上就稳住了股市。"野村中国首席经济学 家陆挺表示，与此同时，近期汇市也逐步趋稳。 宏观经济方面，一季度经济数据最新出炉，多项指标表现超出市场预期，包括：一季度国内 生产总值（GDP）31.88万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%；一季度社会消费品零售 总额同比增速从前值3.7%跃升至4.6%。 下一阶段，如何进一步稳定市场、提振经济？陆挺在近期的媒体会上表示，未来需进一步稳 住股市、汇市和楼市。同时，刺激消费仍是重中之重，但在经历了两轮"以旧换新"之后，促 消费政策可转向耐用品消费之外的领域，例如，服务消费领域就具备一定的潜力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic outlook in China, highlighting the effectiveness of domestic policies in stabilizing the stock market and the overall economy amidst external pressures [4][7]. Economic Performance - In the first quarter, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4][9]. - The retail sales growth rate increased from 3.7% to 4.6% year-on-year in the same period, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4][9]. Market Stabilization - The Chinese government has implemented measures to stabilize the stock market, foreign exchange market, and real estate market, with the central bank providing re-loans to support the "national team" in stabilizing the stock market [4][6][7]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated but recovered to around 7.3 against the USD, demonstrating resilience in the currency market [7]. Consumer Stimulus - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales in various sectors, particularly in electronics, with the inclusion of mobile phones and computers in the program [9][10]. - Future consumption stimulus should focus on service sectors such as tourism, hotels, and dining, as these areas show potential for growth [6][10]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is under pressure, with both exports and real estate facing simultaneous declines for the first time [7][8]. - While some regions show signs of recovery, a nationwide stabilization in the real estate market has not yet occurred, necessitating continued support for developers [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the central bank may implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut or interest rate reduction in the second quarter due to potential external shocks affecting economic performance [1] Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds and 500 billion yuan in special bonds for central financial institutions starting April 24, signaling a strong commitment to maintain expenditure in the second quarter [1] - Experts believe that a reserve requirement ratio cut may occur before an interest rate reduction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and there is a growing expectation for potential interest rate cuts in the second quarter to stimulate the economy [1] Economic Policy Outlook - Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, predicts that the current external economic environment, domestic real estate market, and price trends indicate that the timing for a "prudent reduction in reserve requirement and interest rates" may be ripe [1] - A short-term policy interest rate cut of 30 basis points is anticipated, which would match the reduction seen throughout the previous year [1] Impact on Financing Costs - The expected interest rate cuts are likely to lead to a decrease in LPR quotes, thereby reducing loan rates for businesses and households [1] - This reduction in financing costs is viewed as a significant measure to promote consumption, expand investment, and enhance domestic demand, countering potential external demand slowdowns [1]

来源|中国证券报 4月21日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025年4月21日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为 3.6%，均较上期维持不变。 这是LPR连续六个月"按兵不动"。 图片来源：中国货币网 业内普遍认为，本月LPR保持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，作为LPR报价的定价基础，其稳定很大程度上预示LPR会 保持不变；另一方面，银行净息差仍处在低位，缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力。 从经济基本面看，经济保持向好态势，LPR下行迫切性不强。 "年初以来LPR持续保持不变，根本上是因为一季度经济走势偏强，LPR下行的迫切性 不强。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。 从利率角度看，当前无论是企业贷款利率还是个人贷款利率都处于低位。 央行数据显示，3月份，企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为 3.3%，比上年同期低约45个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约60个基点。 往后看，LPR仍有下行空间。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，在外部不确定性上升、内部政策效果处于观察期等情况下，央行货币调控" ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for six consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid external pressures and a favorable domestic economic outlook [2]. Group 1: Loan Market and Interest Rates - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, with no changes from previous rates [2]. - The lack of adjustment in LPR is attributed to stable economic fundamentals and low social financing costs, reducing the urgency for policy rate cuts [2]. - Recent reductions in deposit rates by several banks aim to alleviate costs on the liability side, reflecting a cautious approach to adjusting LPR [2]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Conditions - The State Council has emphasized the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments and support for the real estate market, suggesting a potential for monetary easing in the second quarter [3]. - The issuance of special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan and 500 billion yuan for central financial institutions is expected to signal strong fiscal spending in the second quarter [3]. - Analysts predict that if the supply of government bonds increases significantly, the PBOC may need to implement measures such as reverse repos or reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain liquidity [4]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is ample room for macroeconomic policy adjustments to address uncertainties in the external environment while ensuring reasonable domestic economic growth [4]. - The potential for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies is highlighted, with expectations that reserve requirement ratio cuts may occur before interest rate reductions [4].

Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a pullback after reaching highs, with notable declines in Qilu Bank, Ping An Bank, Pudong Development Bank, and Chengdu Bank, all dropping over 1% [1] - The year-to-date performance of various banks shows mixed results, with Qilu Bank up 10.34%, while Ping An Bank down 5.81% [2] Gold Sector - Gold-related stocks surged, with companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Lai Shen Tong Ling hitting the daily limit, while others like Chifeng Gold and Hunan Gold rose over 7% [1] - Spot gold prices increased by 1.7%, surpassing $3,380 per ounce, indicating strong market interest [1] LPR Rates - The one-year LPR remains at 3.10% and the five-year LPR at 3.60%, unchanged for six months [4][6] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the steady 7-day reverse repurchase rate and low net interest margins for banks, reducing the incentive to lower LPR [6] Economic Outlook - Recent economic data shows a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year and a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating a recovery in the economy [8] - Financial support for the real economy remains robust, suggesting that there is no immediate urgency for rate cuts [8] Monetary Policy Insights - Experts predict a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 25-50 basis points around the April Politburo meeting to support credit expansion [9] - Structural monetary policy tools may be introduced to guide credit flow and reduce financing costs for enterprises [9][10]