Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed uncertainty about whether the committee will reach a consensus, but highlighted that economic indicators show strong performance, with low unemployment and inflation nearing target levels [1] Economic Performance - Economic data indicates a robust performance, with the unemployment rate remaining low [1] - Inflation is reported to be close to the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting stability in price levels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

据《澳洲金融评论报》报道，受益于就业数据的持续韧性，澳洲和美国的利率维持 不变的时间可能会 比市场和借贷者预期的更长，这表明当前并不急需大幅降息。 周四公布的数据显示，尽管就业岗位出现意外下滑，但澳洲5月的失业率仍稳定在 4.1%。 RBC Capital Markets首席经济学家Su-Lin Ong表示，这些数据显示劳动力 市场"依旧健康"。 就在一个月前，澳联储和美联储都认为，由于美国总统特朗普的贸易政策将导致企业裁员，两国的就业 市场将在第二季度开始疲软，但失业率却一直不符合预期。 这意味着澳联储要保持耐心，这也是包括美联储在内的其它多家央行所传递的信息。 Barrenjoey的首席利率策略师Andrew Lilley指出："我们在5月没有看到劳动力市 场有任何疲软的迹象。" 事实上，美联储在周三（澳洲东部时间周四）的政策会议上如期将基准利率维持在 4%至4.25%之间不 变。 他注意到，两国经济的就业市场表现都比预期要好。 主席Jerome Powell指出，美国劳动力市场依旧稳健，处于或 接近充分就业状态。 Jerome Powell（图片来源：澳洲金融评论报） 虽然美国政策制定者重申预计今年将降 ...

骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Dan Siluk指，美联储鸽式按兵不动，并为 2025年下半年降息保持大门敞开。美联储明确传达出不急于行动的讯号，但若通胀持续回落、劳动市场 继续软化，将随时准备采取行动。通胀预测上调或会使市场较不预期大幅宽松政策出现，但对2025年利 率路径维持不变，则是向市场保证了灵活性。 2025年GDP增速自1.7%下修至1.4%，反映对贸易与全球逆风的担忧。失业率自4.4%微幅上调至4.5%， 显示劳动市场已有初步软化迹象。2025年PCE通胀率由2.7%上调至3.0%，核心PCE由2.8%上调至3.1%， 反映关税与能源价格压力。2025年联邦基金利率预测维持在3.9%，预示降息两次;2026及2027年的利率 路径略为上移，长期利率则为3.0%。 骏利亨德森指，总统特朗普呼吁大幅降息1至2.5%并公开批评鲍威尔，凸显美联储所面临的政治压力。 尽管如此，美联储仍决定按兵不动，进一步巩固了其独立性及对双重使命的承诺。经济预测摘要(SEP) 显示，尽管通胀风险依然存在，但经济与劳动市场预测留有宽松的空间，若情势恶化仍可考虑降息。 骏利亨德森提到，接下来，市场将密切 ...

天风证券研报表示，6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。总体来看，特朗普政府政策不 确定性之下，美联储将保持谨慎，耐心等待更明确的降息信号。美联储主席鲍威尔的表态相对偏鹰。关 于就业，鲍威尔指出就业增长确实有所下降，但失业率仍在较低水平，劳动力供需都在同步下降。关于 通胀，鲍威尔表示"我们预计未来几个月将出现显著的通胀"，并指出关税对商品价格的影响是需要传导 时间的。下次降息的门槛仍然较高。我们认为9月降息落地仍有一定难度，下一次降息或许需要等待更 长时间（或在今年四季度）。通胀风险仍偏高，而失业率上行较慢，美联储或宁愿等待更长时间，而不 是先发制人犯下错误。3、总言之，9月美联储降息落地需要满足的条件，要么通胀在暑期继续下行、要 么失业率快速上升，目前看来都有一定难度。美联储或维持观望更长时间，叠加财政和关税政策的不确 定性，下半年美债仍有上行风险。 ...

Group 1 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers expects President Donald Trump to nominate a mainstream candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite Trump's criticism of Powell for not lowering interest rates this year [1] - Summers expresses confidence that Trump will make a respected choice for the next Fed chair, influenced by the desire to avoid market instability and some voices among Senate Republicans [1] - Trump has reiterated calls for the Fed to lower interest rates by at least 2 percentage points, suggesting that his criticism may be more about deflecting blame for a potential economic recession rather than directly influencing Fed policy [2] Group 2 - Summers highlights the negative impact of supply shocks on the economy, as indicated by the Fed's latest economic forecasts, despite lower energy costs and potential productivity gains from AI [2] - The Fed's simultaneous upward revisions of inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are unusual, suggesting an impending supply shock due to tariffs, which complicates the Fed's efforts [2]

Group 1 - Argentina's unemployment rate for the first quarter is 7.9% [1] Group 2 - In May, Argentina reported a trade surplus of $608 million, which was below the expected surplus of $1.05 billion [2] - Exports in May totaled $7.095 billion, while imports were $6.488 billion [2]

美东时间6月18日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持 利率不变。美联储的声明称，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但是最近的指标表明美国经济活动继续稳步 扩张。失业率稳定在低位，劳动力市场状况保持稳健，通胀率仍然略高。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现 充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济前景不确定性有所减弱，但仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临 的风险。 本次声明重申，美联储将继续减少其持有的美国国债、机构债和机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。美 联储政策制定者预计，随着特朗普关税影响到美国消费者，商品价格的通胀将在夏季上升。美联储主席 鲍威尔表示，美联储将继续根据最新数据、经济前景变化和风险平衡来决定货币政策的适当立场。鲍威 尔认为，贸易、移民、财政和监管政策仍在不断变化，这些政策对经济的影响仍不确定。"目前，我们 处于有利地位，可以先了解经济可能的走向，然后再考虑调整政策。"鲍威尔表示，现在还有时间等待 更多明朗的消息。 观察人士认为，美联储今年年初选择观望是出于对美国新一届政府关税政 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December last year [7][8]. - The economic outlook has shifted towards a "stagflation" scenario, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 being downgraded by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively, while unemployment rate forecasts for the same years have been raised by 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [7][9]. - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance compared to March, with three additional members expecting no rate cuts this year and a reduction in the expected rate cut for 2026 from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [8][9]. Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a hawkish tone, indicating that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low, and both labor supply and demand are decreasing simultaneously [2][13]. - The market reacted to the FOMC decision with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in U.S. stocks, with expectations for a potential rate cut in September and another in December remaining consistent with pre-FOMC predictions [2][13]. - The next rate cut is deemed challenging, as inflation risks remain high and the unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, suggesting the Fed may prefer to wait for clearer signals rather than act prematurely [3][22]. Group 3 - Inflation is anticipated to face upward pressure during the summer, influenced by tariffs and the delayed transmission of costs to consumers, with the average effective tariff rate expected to rise by 14 percentage points due to ongoing trade conflicts [3][16]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slowly, with initial jobless claims in June showing an upward trend, potentially due to seasonal factors related to the academic calendar [4][21]. - Overall, the conditions for a rate cut in September require either a continued decline in inflation or a rapid increase in unemployment, both of which currently appear difficult to achieve [4][22].

美联储主席鲍威尔顶住特朗普施压，维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%不变。之后鲍威尔发言让人浮想联 翩，热议今年降息的可能性。 6月议息会议后维持利率不变——这已是其自去年12月以来连续第四次按兵不动，具体如下表所示。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在声明中指出：尽管净出口的波动对数据产生了影响，但近期指标显 示，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张，失业率维持在较低水平，劳动力市场状况依然稳固，通胀仍处于 略高水平。 值得留意的是，这次的声明措辞上有所改变：5月时的版本指经济前景的不确定性"进一步增加"，但6月 声明的措辞已变更为"对经济前景的不确定性已有所减弱，但仍处于较高水平"。 为实现其最大就业和将核心通胀控制在2%的目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25% 至4.50%水平。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行额外调整的幅度和时机时，其将仔细评估新发布的 数据、不断演变的前景以及风险平衡，并会继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 在评估货币政策的适当立场时，FOMC将继续监测新信息对经济前景的影响。若出现可能阻碍其实现目 标的风险，美联储将准备酌情调整货币政策立场。FOMC的评估将 ...