| COMEX白银 | | | | | SI | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 88.860 | | | +5.559 +6.67% | | | | | COMEX USD 4:27:48 延时15分钟 | | | 6 | | | 英五 | 88.925 | | 3 | | | | 卖四 | 88.920 | | 3 | | | | 美三 | 88.900 | | 2 | | | | 学二 | 88.890 | | 4 | | | | 英一 | 88.885 | | 2 | | | | 坛一 | 88.850 | | 1 | | | | 买二 | 88.845 | | 1 | | | | 买三 | 88.820 | | 3 | | | | 买口 | 88.815 | | 2 | | | | 六五 | 88.810 | | 2 | | | | 总量 | 26004 现手 | | | | 8 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | | 84.915 | | | 最高 | 90.435 | 最低 | | 83.000 | | | 均价 | 87.365 | 振幅 | | ...

Group 1 - The latest ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector employment increased by only 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below economists' expectations of 48,000, suggesting a continued slowdown in the labor market at the beginning of the year [1][5] - The report highlights that while there are signs of stabilization in the non-farm employment market, the private sector job growth remains weak, indicating that the U.S. economy is still in a cooling phase but not in a trajectory of sustained negative growth [5][6] - The ADP data shows that the education and healthcare sectors led job growth, while professional and business services experienced the largest job losses since June 2025 [6][7] Group 2 - The ADP employment data is expected to provide a comprehensive view of the U.S. labor market for January, especially since the official non-farm payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been delayed due to a government shutdown [2] - The report indicates that the average salary increase for job changers has slowed to 6.4%, while the salary growth for those who remain in their jobs has slightly rebounded [7] - The overall weak employment data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious assessment of the economic outlook, potentially providing more room for future monetary policy easing [7][9] Group 3 - The recent ADP employment data is seen as a positive factor for gold prices, as weaker employment figures may lead to increased bets on a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1][9] - The volatility of gold prices has surged, reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a shift in market dynamics where traditional safe-haven assets like gold are reacting more sharply to macroeconomic risk changes compared to riskier assets like Bitcoin [10][11] - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and UBS, maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold, predicting significant price increases driven by central bank purchases and investor demand, despite recent price volatility [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, which requires Senate approval [1] - Walsh, who served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, is known for his hawkish monetary policy stance but has recently aligned with Trump's views on interest rate cuts and tariffs [1][6] - Trump's criticism of current Fed Chairman Powell and his desire for lower interest rates are central to the nomination process, with Trump expressing that rates should be among the lowest globally [1][7] Group 2 - Walsh has a diverse background, having worked in government, finance, and academia, and is currently a partner at Duquesne Family Office and a visiting scholar at Stanford [5] - His previous experience includes serving as a special assistant to President George W. Bush and as an executive director at Morgan Stanley [5][6] - Walsh's relationship with Trump and his commitment to supporting interest rate cuts are seen as significant factors in his nomination [11][13] Group 3 - The Senate's approval process for the Federal Reserve Chairman is crucial, especially in the current politically divided environment, where bipartisan support is necessary [11] - Experts believe that while Walsh's views align with Trump's, the independence of the Federal Reserve is paramount, and decisions are made collectively by the Federal Open Market Committee [13] - There is a consensus among analysts that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates this year, with expectations ranging from 50 to 100 basis points [11][13]

Group 1 - Legendary investor Ray Dalio warns that the world is on the brink of a "capital war" due to escalating geopolitical tensions and high market volatility [1][5] - Dalio defines "capital war" as the weaponization of capital through trade embargoes, cutting off market access, or using debt ownership as leverage [1][5] - Steven Major, a prominent bond analyst, suggests that the Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh's leadership, may implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market currently anticipates, potentially four to five cuts instead of two [1][5] Group 2 - Gold prices rebounded significantly, trading around 5070, supported by buying interest and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials that reignited rate cut expectations [7] - The Australian dollar experienced a strong rebound, trading at approximately 0.7030, primarily due to a 25 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia and improved economic growth and inflation forecasts [8] - The USD/CAD pair saw a slight decline, trading around 1.3640, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index amid multiple negative factors [9]

当地时间2月3日，据多家美国媒体报道，现任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰已经辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席职 务。 斯蒂芬·米兰： ·特朗普本届任期内，曾担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，是特朗普核心经济幕僚。 ·2025年9月，被总统特朗普提名并经参议院确认，出任美联储理事。 ·担任美联储理事期间在白宫办理"停薪留职"（Leave of Absence）至宣布辞职。 米兰为什么要在此时与白宫"完全切割"？ 米兰此时辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席职务，是为了继续以"看守身份"留任美联储理事。 米兰于2025年9月正式"入职"美联储，临时接替提前辞职的阿德里安娜·库格勒，完成后者的剩余任期。目 前，库格勒的任期已于2026年1月31日结束。而在库格勒的美联储理事职务"正式继任者"明确之前，米兰 可以继续留任。 外媒报道截图 不过，根据美国《联邦储备法》（Federal Reserve Act），美联储理事在任期内不得兼任行政机构职务，米 兰此前的"停薪留职"属临时性安排，这次与白宫"完全切割"，是履行他去年9月在参议院听证会上的承诺， 即在库格勒的任期结束后，完全脱离白宫职务，以展示他作为美联储理事的"独立性"。 米兰是否可能"转正 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week (20260126 - 20260201), U.S. stocks' three major indices declined while the Hang Seng Index rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.17%, 0.34%, and -0.42% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 2.38% [3]. - A - shares with large - market capitalization rose and those with small - market capitalization fell, and most growth sectors declined. The wind full A index changed by -1.59%, and different indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc. had different changes [4][5]. - In terms of industry performance, 10 out of 30 CITIC industries rose and 20 fell. Leading sectors included petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, and non - ferrous metals, with weekly gains of over 3.0%. ETFs in oil and gas, energy, etc. led with weekly gains of over 5% [5]. - China's treasury bond yields showed mixed changes in the past week. The 10 - year treasury bond futures contract rose by 0.11%, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 1.86 BP to 1.8112% [6]. - The yield of ultra - long - term U.S. treasury bonds increased, and the yield curve steepened. As of January 30, 2026, the 10 - year U.S. treasury bond yield changed by 2 BP to 4.26% [7]. - The U.S. dollar depreciated. The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.40%, and the exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen changed by -0.27%, -0.33%, and -0.68% respectively. The exchange rates against the on - shore and off - shore RMB were divergent [8][9]. - Gold prices tumbled on January 30, 2026. London gold spot prices rose by 0.72% to $4981.85 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures prices fell by 1.14% to $4879.60 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also rose [10]. - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged. Most members supported this decision, and only two members supported a 25 - BP interest - rate cut [11]. - The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by nearly $2.4 trillion in the past three years. If Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, the interest - rate cut may exceed market expectations, which is positive for asset prices [12]. - In the future, for A - shares, structural opportunities are worth exploring, including satellite, commercial aerospace, military, technology, and resource sectors. For the bond market, the Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield above 1.80% has long - term investment value. For commodities and exchange rates, if the Fed's interest - rate cut exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may continue to weaken, and the upward trend of precious metals and other commodities remains unchanged [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Market - U.S. stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.17%, 0.34%, and -0.42% respectively in the past week (20260126 - 20260201) [3]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.38% in the past week (20260126 - 20260201) [3]. - A - shares: The wind full A index changed by -1.59%. Different indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc. had different changes. From the sector style perspective, in the Shanghai market, blue - chip stocks rose and growth stocks fell; in the Shenzhen market, both blue - chip and growth stocks fell; the North Securities 50 Index fell by 3.59% [4][5]. Bond Market - China's treasury bonds: The 10 - year treasury bond futures contract rose by 0.11% in the past week (20260126 - 20260201). The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 1.86 BP to 1.8112%. The yields of 3 - to 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, while those of other maturities increased [6]. - U.S. treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year U.S. treasury bond changed by 2 BP to 4.26% as of January 30, 2026. The yields of 10 - year and above maturities increased, and the yield curve steepened [7]. Exchange Rate - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.40% in the past week (20260126 - 20260201). The exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen changed by -0.27%, -0.33%, and -0.68% respectively. The exchange rates against the on - shore and off - shore RMB were divergent [8][9]. Commodities - Gold: Gold prices tumbled on January 30, 2026. London gold spot prices rose by 0.72% to $4981.85 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures prices fell by 1.14% to $4879.60 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also rose [10]. Fed Policy - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged. Most members supported this decision, and only two members supported a 25 - BP interest - rate cut [11]. - The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by nearly $2.4 trillion since June 2022 until December 2025. If Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, the interest - rate cut may exceed market expectations [12].

隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴涨285.10美元，涨幅6.12%，报4946.01美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续涨势，目前在5060美元附近徘徊。 米兰称："我倾向于在今年全年降息略超1个百分点。"他认为当前货币政策对于经济而言过于紧缩，尽管通胀率仍高于2%的目标，但核心物价压 力已趋于缓和。米兰表示，通胀的基本面企稳，叠加监管负担减轻所推动的强劲经济增长，意味着美联储可以实施降息，且不会再度引发物价上 涨压力。 当前，美国政策不确定性仍高，美国劳工统计局（BLS）称因部分停摆，原定于周五公布的非农就业报告将推迟发布。美国劳工统计局副局长艾 米莉-利德尔在一份声明中表示："2026年1月的《就业形势报告》将不会按原计划于2月6日（周五）发布。该报告将在政府资金恢复后重新安排发 布日期。"目前，尚不清楚美国商务部是否会因华盛顿的僵局而面临报告延迟。此项决定正值经济数据密集发布周，而本周原本将以非农就业报告 （亦称失业状况报告）的发布作为高潮。 同日，现货白银也同步跳涨7.5%至85.01美元，结束了上周五27%暴跌和周一6%下跌的颓势。今日欧市盘中，白银延续涨势，目前在89.01美元附 近徘徊。 停摆结束！ 隔夜，美股高开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are 2000 US dollars per ounce and 1600 US dollars per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan per gram, and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 461.00 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 27.30 yuan. The main contract positions of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands to 10387.00 hands, while the main contract positions of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 588.10 yuan per gram, with an increase of 21.29 yuan, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 417.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 16.51 yuan per gram, with a decrease, and the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 31.30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00. The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, with a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, with a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, with an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, with a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index decreased by 0.23 to 97.37, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.92%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 1.66 to 18.00 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown. Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy. The US White House said that talks with Iran this week will proceed as planned. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in March is 8.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.1%. The overseas precious metals market sentiment has warmed up, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's delay of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards are expected to increase the substitution demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The release time of the US ADP employment data on February 4th is to be determined, and the US January non - farm payrolls report will be released. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5th [2].

去年9月，米兰获参议院批准在美联储任职，同时通过无薪休假的方式保留白宫职务，这一安排颇为罕 见。 在一封落款为周二的辞职信中，米兰写道，他曾向参议员们承诺，如果自己在1月之后仍留在美联储， 就将离开白宫。 白宫发言人Kush Desai周二晚些时候证实了米兰的辞职。 "作为白宫经济顾问委员会的一员，他（米兰）凭借卓越的见解以及坚定地代表总统发声，成为白宫的 宝贵财富，并确立了其作为特朗普政府经济团队核心成员的地位。"Desai在一份声明中表示。 严格来说，米兰的任期已于1月31日结束，因为他此前是在接替一位去年辞职的理事，完成其剩余任 期。不过，在参议院确认继任人选之前，他仍可继续留在美联储理事会。 背后有何考量？ 米兰继续留任美联储理事，对美国总统特朗普而言是个机会。特朗普已提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担 任新的美联储主席，而现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于5月结束。 然而，根据美联储相关规定，只有现任美联储理事才能担任主席，而目前理事会并无空缺席位（鲍威尔 本人的美联储理事任期将持续至2028年）。 如此一来，特朗普可在鲍威尔卸任前夕， 用沃什替换米兰，然后再将沃什提升至主席之位。 据报道，美国总统特朗普的心 ...

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $87.40, with an opening price of $84.75 per ounce and a current price of $87.71, reflecting a 3.10% increase. The highest price reached was $88.24, while the lowest was $83.22, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan emphasized the need for aggressive interest rate cuts this year, suggesting a reduction of about one percentage point. He expressed optimism about the performance of Kevin Walsh, the newly appointed Fed Chair [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 8.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 91.1%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 22.5%, with a 76.0% chance of no change [1] Group 2 - Silver prices may encounter resistance around the $88.00 level, and if this level is breached, attention will shift towards the $100.00 and $104.00 resistance areas [2] - The support level is identified at $71.37, with further support below this level at the December highs and mid-December lows, located around the $60.00 area [3]