Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility in gold and silver prices is driven by profit-taking and macroeconomic information shocks, with the U.S. economy showing strength alongside inflation pressures, leading to increased uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies [3] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 6.83% to $4,970.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 10.27% to $84.92 per ounce [1] - The Australian Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first rate hike of 2023 and making it the first major developed economy central bank to raise rates since 2026 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that the Fed needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, expressing anticipation for Kevin Walsh's performance as Fed Chair [1] - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy to ensure labor market stability until inflation fully returns to target [1] Group 3: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the market close on February 4, the price fluctuation limit for silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 19%, with margin requirements for maintaining positions set at 20% and 21% [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The trend of increasing official gold reserves globally, high public debt leading to sovereign currency crises, and broad application prospects in the industrial sector continue to support gold prices [3] - Short-term volatility is expected to persist, with recommendations to reduce leverage and adopt a cautious approach to trading [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and monetary policy still has a certain degree of determination. The central bank may maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through structural tools or timely reserve requirement ratio cuts. In the bond market, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the wait-and-see sentiment will continue in the short term, and it is more likely to be volatile [2][10][12]. - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, indicating that China's bond market opening continues to advance. This not only releases a positive signal of China's financial market opening but also has multiple meanings such as constructing diversified foreign currency financing channels and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. - In October, the cumulative year - on - year data of real estate investment and sales further weakened, and the real estate market continued to operate at the bottom, with the confidence of real estate enterprises to be restored [4][18]. - The central bank provided liquidity support last week, and the overall capital price showed a downward trend. The issuance scale of the primary credit bond market increased significantly, and the issuance cost mostly declined. In the secondary market, the trading activity continued to decline, and the credit bond yields fluctuated [5][6][35]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **LPR Remains Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months**: The 1 - year LPR is 3.00%, and the 5 - year and above LPR is 3.50%, both remaining unchanged for 6 months. The reasons include the narrowing of the net interest margin of commercial banks, the current low - level interest rate, and the emphasis on "cross - cycle adjustment" in monetary policy. The central bank may use structural tools or reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain liquidity. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [2][10][12]. - **Foreign - Currency Sovereign Bonds Issued Continuously**: On November 18, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg. The total subscription amount was 100.1 billion euros, 25 times the issuance amount. It is innovative in product types, with diversified investor structures. It has multiple meanings such as reducing exchange - rate risks, providing pricing references, and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.34 from the previous value. National real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the same period last year [4][18]. Money Market - The central bank conducted 5 periods of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations totaling 167.6 billion yuan and 1 period of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan last week. After deducting the maturity amount, the net investment in the open market was 123.4 billion yuan. Except for DR014 and DR1M, most term pledged repurchase rates decreased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor slightly decreased, and the 1 - year Shibor remained unchanged [21]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds last week was 356.661 billion yuan, an increase of 105.252 billion yuan from the previous value. Except for the private placement corporate bonds, the issuance scale of other bond types increased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of financing, while the industrial bond financing situation varied. The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly declined, especially for medium - and high - grade bonds [6][24][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The secondary - market spot trading volume of bonds last week was 822.4458 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.3106 billion yuan from the previous period. The average daily spot trading volume decreased to 164.4892 billion yuan. The bond market yields fluctuated. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends, and most of the rating spreads expanded [35]. Appendix - **Credit Risk Events in the Bond Market**: There were events such as bond extensions and defaults of some real estate and media companies, including the interest extension of "H1 Greenview 01" and "H1 Greenview 02" and the principal and interest default of "17 Huawen Media MTN001H" [44]. - **Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics**: There were updates to the list of special institutional investors for private placement debt financing instruments, and policies such as including savings bonds (electronic) in the scope of personal pension products [45]. - **Monthly Net Financing of Main Credit Bond Types**: The net financing of different types of credit bonds showed different trends from January 2024 to October 2025 [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of WanGuo Gold Group (03939), which increased over 8% and is currently trading at 15.58 HKD with a transaction volume of 353 million HKD [1] - As of February 4, spot gold prices have returned to the 5000 USD/ounce level, indicating a recovery in the gold market [1] - UBS strategy analysts suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices may inject healthy momentum into the market from a long-term perspective [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities believes that precious metals will benefit from the continued resonance of monetary attributes and risk aversion sentiment [1] - WanGuo Gold Group has announced an expected profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.4 to 1.5 billion HKD for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 143% to 161% [1] - The anticipated profit increase is primarily attributed to the rise in sales volume and prices of gold products [1]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.414 | 102.444 | 105.905 | 105.930 | 108.260 | 108.250 | 111.96 | 112.1 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.390 | 102.408 | 105.860 | 105.895 | 108.250 | 108.210 | 112.06 | 112.2 | | | 涨跌 | 0.024 | 0.036 | 0.045 | 0.035 | 0.010 | 0.040 | -0.100 | -0.100 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.02% | 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal discussions regarding the restrictiveness of current interest rates, with notable divisions among officials on the timing, magnitude, and caution of potential rate cuts, influenced by differing assessments of inflation trends and economic resilience [1][5] Group 1: Perspectives on Monetary Policy - Stephen Milan, a Federal Reserve governor, advocates for a more accommodative monetary policy, arguing that the current economic conditions do not support high interest rates and suggesting a need for significant rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points within the year [1][3] - Milan's stance is based on his belief that there is no substantial price pressure in the economy, and the high rates are more a result of specific factors in inflation measurement rather than actual economic conditions [3][5] - In contrast, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy, focusing on achieving the 2% inflation target before making significant adjustments, to ensure labor market stability [3][4] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Risks - Barkin identifies that while economic uncertainty has decreased and there are signs of improvement, potential risks remain, particularly in the labor market where hiring is concentrated in a few sectors [4][5] - He notes that the resilience of U.S. economic demand is significantly supported by investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and spending by affluent consumers, highlighting the interconnectedness of these factors [4] - Barkin warns that a slowdown in AI investment or a decline in the net worth of wealthy consumers could negatively impact overall demand and economic resilience, reinforcing his cautious approach to monetary policy [4][5] Group 3: Current Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that the current policy stance provides sufficient flexibility to balance employment and inflation risks [4] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the definition of the "restrictive boundary" of policy highlight the differing priorities between Milan's focus on economic needs for easing and Barkin's emphasis on inflation targets and economic stability [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance of "supporting rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction" may face difficulties in implementation. The US economy and the Fed's decision - making mechanism create resistance to significant policy shifts. Investors should also watch the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market continues to be driven by positive policy expectations. In the first quarter, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve an economic "good start" in the "15th Five - Year Plan". In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were front - loaded, and the manufacturing PMI showed economic stability. Strong exports also contribute to economic goals [9]. - Asset views: At the level of major asset classes, structural opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy environment, loose liquidity, and inflation expectations support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector is highly volatile, and short - term caution is advised. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after corrections. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil is highly uncertain, so it's better to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Fluctuations 3.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4653 with a daily increase of 1.25%, SSE 50 futures at 3033 with a daily increase of 0.8%, CSI 500 futures at 8282 with a daily increase of 3.71%, and CSI 1000 futures at 8183 with a daily increase of 2.97% on February 3, 2026 [2]. - Treasury bonds: 2 - year treasury bond futures were at 102.414 with a daily increase of 0.03%, 5 - year at 105.905 with a daily increase of 0.04%, 10 - year at 108.26 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and 30 - year at 111.96 with a daily decrease of 0.1% [2]. 3.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.6129 with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9453, down 115 pips [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4906%, down 10.2 bp; the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.82%, up 0.88 bp; the 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.29%, up 3 bp [2]. 3.1.3 Industry Indexes - On February 3, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and media had relatively large daily increases, while the banking industry had a daily decline of 0.81% [3]. 3.1.4 Domestic Commodities - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil was at 453.19, fuel oil had a daily increase of 9.29%, etc. [4]. - Non - ferrous metals: Stainless steel had a daily increase of 3.4%, etc. [4]. - Black building materials: Rebar had a daily decrease of 0.29%, etc. [4]. - Agricultural products: Soybean had a daily increase of 0.1%, etc. [4]. 3.1.5 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 62.33 with a daily decrease of 4.42%, ICE Brent crude was at 66.31 with a daily decrease of 4.34% on February 2, 2026 [6]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold was at 4680.9 with a daily decrease of 1.35%, COMEX silver was at 79.265 with a daily increase of 0.93% [6]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper was at 12900 with a daily decrease of 1.96%, etc. [6]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans were at 1060 with a daily decrease of 0.4%, etc. [6]. 3.2 Sector Analysis and Short - Term Judgments 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the easing of liquidity panic and the rotation to technology stocks [11]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile as sentiment stabilizes and implied volatility declines [11]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the long - end showing weakness [11]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile as geopolitical tensions ease and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [11]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - The container shipping route to Europe is expected to be volatile due to pressure on spot freight rates and pre - holiday price - cutting by shipping companies [11]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile due to factors like the off - season, weak market sentiment, and limited fundamental changes [11]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - Copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner as market sentiment recovers, while lead is expected to decline in a volatile manner [11]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals Sector - Most varieties such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile due to factors like supply pressure, geopolitical influence, and weakening demand. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Some varieties like natural rubber, cotton, and synthetic rubber are expected to be volatile or rise in a volatile manner, while others like corn/starch, sugar, and pork are expected to decline in a volatile manner [13].

Core Viewpoint - A sudden announcement from Washington regarding Kevin Walsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, erasing billions in market value and catching investors off guard [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold and silver prices had been on an upward trend for months, but the announcement caused gold to experience its worst sell-off since 2013 and silver its largest single-day drop since 1980 [2]. - The volatility in the market has raised concerns about future fluctuations, as investors are closely monitoring policy signals from Washington and potential changes from the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Walsh is viewed as a proponent of free markets and inflation hawkishness, differing from the current Federal Reserve leadership, which has focused on maintaining low borrowing costs [1]. - His past record suggests a more stringent approach to inflation and monetary policy, potentially requiring tighter monetary policy measures, including interest rate hikes, which could strengthen the dollar and reduce the appeal of gold and silver as safe-haven assets [1]. Group 3: Long-term Demand - Despite the recent volatility, ongoing purchases by foreign central banks, including China, continue to support long-term demand for gold, as geopolitical tensions drive efforts to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the dollar [3].

Group 1 - The latest financial data shows that by the end of December 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 115.51 trillion yuan, growing by 3.8% [1] - M1's increase indicates that residents and businesses have more money readily available for spending, suggesting enhanced consumer capacity and active market transactions, while M2's growth signals an increase in overall money supply and liquidity in the economy [2] - The "scissor difference" between M2 and M1 has been a focal point for the market; an expanding gap suggests that businesses are choosing to deposit funds rather than invest, reflecting a decline in investment willingness amid economic pressures [2] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, advocating for flexible and efficient use of various policy tools to maintain ample liquidity [3] - The current social financing scale and M2 balance have both surpassed 440 trillion yuan and 340 trillion yuan respectively, with the RMB loan balance exceeding 270 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial financial total [3] - As high-quality economic development progresses, there is a need to optimize the structure of financial supply, directing more financial resources to areas of national economic need to promote positive interaction between finance and the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market are linked to movements in the stock and oil markets, with investors seeking safety in low-volatility Treasury bonds amid stock market adjustments [1] Group 1: Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury prices have seen a slight increase as funds shift from equities to the bond market for risk aversion [1] - Rising international oil prices are elevating inflation expectations, which, while potentially eroding the real value of fixed income from Treasuries, still attract investment due to concerns over economic growth [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - PIMCO highlights that current bond pricing offers absolute attractiveness compared to stocks, suggesting that investors should diversify globally to maximize returns and mitigate risks [1] - The recent re-evaluation of monetary policy paths due to Federal Reserve personnel nominations has led to volatility in dollar assets, further influencing Treasury demand [1] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are heightening concerns over oil supply, which in turn supports demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries [1] - The differentiated pace of monetary policy adjustments among major global central banks is reinforcing the demand for U.S. Treasuries as a core safe-haven asset during periods of equity market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The development of digital RMB is positioned as a crucial component in enhancing the central banking system and constructing a robust monetary policy framework, aiming to establish a financial powerhouse in China [1] Group 1: Digital RMB Development - The digital RMB has been recognized as an essential financial infrastructure in the digital economy era, with its development being a strategic initiative for deepening financial supply-side structural reforms and maintaining national financial security [1] - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a new generation of digital RMB management and service systems by January 1, 2026, marking the upgrade from version 1.0 (digital cash) to version 2.0 (digital deposit currency) [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Effectiveness - The comprehensive promotion of digital RMB is expected to significantly enhance the precision and transmission efficiency of monetary policy, providing robust monetary tools for building a financial powerhouse [2] - Digital RMB's programmable features allow for targeted fund allocation, ensuring that credit flows to key sectors such as technological innovation and green manufacturing, thus addressing structural challenges in traditional monetary policy [2] Group 3: Financial Security - In the context of rising geopolitical risks, digital RMB plays a strategic role in maintaining national financial security, with its infrastructure and core data fully controlled by the state [3] - Digital RMB aims to reconstruct the cross-border payment and settlement system, enhancing the international competitiveness of the RMB by lowering costs and barriers for cross-border transactions [3] Group 4: Financial Inclusion - Digital RMB is designed to lower the barriers to accessing financial services, improving coverage and quality, particularly benefiting small and micro businesses by saving transaction costs [5] - The offline payment capability of digital RMB ensures basic payment needs are met even in areas with poor network signals, thus bridging the "digital divide" in financial services [5] Group 5: Empowering the Real Economy - Digital RMB is viewed as a vital financial innovation tool for promoting the integration of digital and real economies, enhancing the efficiency of supply chain finance and industry collaboration [6] - The low-cost settlement mechanism of digital RMB is expected to alleviate funding bottlenecks for enterprises, thereby supporting their operational needs [6] Group 6: Social Governance Innovation - Digital RMB offers unique advantages in government public service payments, enhancing transparency, security, and convenience for vulnerable groups [7] - The "controllable anonymity" feature of digital RMB protects user privacy while allowing the state to monitor for serious crimes, thus improving governance efficiency [7] Group 7: Strategic Value Recognition - Recognizing the strategic value of digital RMB, the implementation of the action plan is seen as an opportunity to innovate steadily, improve the ecosystem, and expand application scenarios, contributing to the construction of a financial powerhouse and providing a reference for global digital currency development [8]