Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on relying more on monetary policy to expand domestic demand rather than fiscal policy is highlighted, as monetary policy can effectively influence individual behaviors and market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at CF40, argues that expanding domestic demand through fiscal spending is limited by practical constraints, such as the need for homeowner consent for projects like elevator installations in old residential buildings [3]. - The report indicates that from 2018 to 2021, the average mortgage interest rate in China was 5.5%, while the average growth rate of second-hand housing prices was 4.1%, resulting in a net cost of home buying at 1.4%, which was lower than the average rental yield of 2.2% [3]. - In contrast, from 2022 to 2025, the average mortgage interest rate is projected to drop to 3.9%, with second-hand housing prices expected to decline at an annual rate of -4.8%, leading to a net cost of home buying rising to 8.7%, making buying less attractive compared to renting [3]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - Lowering interest rates can reduce the cost gap between buying and renting, thereby increasing residents' willingness to purchase homes [4]. - Monetary policy is seen as a more sustainable approach to expanding domestic demand by improving expectations and optimizing the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investments and consumer spending [4]. - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates, which can enhance market confidence and influence economic behavior [4].

行业涨跌榜 | 库号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2026-01-19 | | | | | | ［区间尾日］2026-01-24 | | | | | | 单位 % ↑ | | | 1 | : 801780.SI | 银行(申万) | | -2.6979 | | 2 | 801770.SI | 通信(申万) | | -2.1196 | | 3 801790.SI | | 非银金融(申万) | | -1.4536 | 申万一级行业中，建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前，银行、通信、非银金融、食品饮料跌幅靠前。 上周市场回顾 关键词：权益市场多数上涨 上周权益市场分化，上证指数上涨0.8%，深证指数上涨1.1%，沪深300下跌0.6%，创业板指下跌0.3%， 科创50上涨2.6%。 债市上涨，10年国债收益率收于1.83%左右，下行约1.3bp，7年国债收益下行2.2bp左右，1年国债收益 率上行约4.0bp，3年期中债企业债收益率下行约1.5bp。 | 成号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌 ...

由于美国总统特朗普对美联储的攻击引发的强烈反弹，他正将自己放在一个两难境地之中：他钟意的美 联储主席接班人，市场不喜欢；市场青睐的，他又怕其随后会"叛变"。 数月来，特朗普政府寻找新任美联储主席的行动正日渐艰难。能让特朗普满意的美联储主席继任者要满 足多项条件：支持特朗普政策且对他忠心耿耿，能够推动大幅降息，同时赢得华尔街和"让美国再次伟 大"（MAGA）支持者的信任，还要顺利通过参议院的提名确认。此外，该候选人还需要符合特朗普在 意的"上镜"和"明星气质"。 近期在达沃斯论坛上，特朗普表示他将在"不久的将来"宣布新任美联储人选。美国财政部长贝森特则证 实，特朗普表示"可能最早在1月26日当周"宣布该人选。 截至27日下午记者发稿时，预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里德尔 （Rick Rieder）当选美联储主席的概率为48%，排名第二的前美联储理事沃什（Kevin Warsh）的概率为 28%。 彭博经济研究美国首席经济学家Anna Wong对第一财经表示："如果沃什最终获得提名，我们认为可能 意味着三种情形：众人误解了特朗普对低利率的诉求（但这不太可能）；沃什已经放弃了 ...

Core Insights - The CF40 macro policy report for Q4 2025 emphasizes the importance of counter-cyclical policies in 2026, particularly focusing on fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Recovery Indicators - In 2025, China's macroeconomic indicators showed signs of early recovery, including improvements in the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits [1] - Corporate profits have halted their downward trend, and overall consumption and labor market conditions remained stable [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Positive Changes - The positive changes in the economy are attributed to three main factors: support from counter-cyclical policies, successful management of the tariff war initiated by the U.S., and prior years' price adjustments that provided support for market rebounds [1] Group 3: Key Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The report highlights that the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies will be crucial in 2026, with monetary policy being the primary focus to stimulate private investment and housing purchases [1] - Recommendations include clearer inflation expectations management and significant reductions in policy interest rates to encourage economic recovery [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise in U.S. Treasury yields during Asian afternoon trading, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming decision on Wednesday [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key policy rate by 75 basis points in 2025, with a hold on rates at least until early 2026 [1] - This decision aligns with market expectations and the observed health of the U.S. economic cycle, despite potential discontent from the White House [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.220% [1] - Conversely, the 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.2 basis points to 3.594% [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of targeted operations to effectively counter seasonal liquidity pressures, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - On January 26, the PBOC conducted a 150.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, despite a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion yuan in the open market on the same day [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing during the week of January 26-30 reached 1.181 trillion yuan, alongside MLF maturities, resulting in a liquidity withdrawal pressure exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has optimized structural monetary policy tools by lowering interest rates on loans for agriculture and small enterprises, as well as for technological innovation [3] - PBOC officials indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year, although the urgency for a reserve requirement cut before the Spring Festival has decreased [3] - Market analysts expect that the PBOC may implement 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts and potentially 2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with the timing for policy rate reductions anticipated in the second quarter [3]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-27 超长段修复，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is in the early stages of recovery in 2025, with 2026 being a crucial year for sustaining this recovery through effective counter-cyclical policies, particularly in monetary policy [2][3]. Economic Indicators - In 2025, various financial indicators such as the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits showed significant improvement, indicating early signs of economic recovery [3]. - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and overall consumption and labor market conditions are stable [3]. Factors Driving Recovery - The recovery is primarily driven by three factors: 1. Support from counter-cyclical policies, especially increased government borrowing and spending [3]. 2. Successful navigation of the tariff war initiated by the U.S., which helped maintain export momentum [3]. 3. Price adjustments over previous years have provided support for market rebounds [3]. Weaknesses in Recovery - The foundation of the economic recovery is fragile, heavily reliant on fiscal borrowing and external demand, with insufficient internal growth drivers [3]. - Weak investment willingness from private enterprises and low consumer confidence in housing and spending are significant concerns [3]. Private Investment Concerns - From 2010 to 2021, the average return on assets for listed companies was 6.7%, while the average yield on 10-year government bonds was 3.4%, resulting in a consistent spread of 3.3% [4]. - However, from 2022 to 2025, the average return on assets dropped to 2.7%, and the yield on government bonds fell to 2.4%, narrowing the spread to only 0.3%, which negatively impacts private investment enthusiasm [4]. - The average growth rate of private fixed asset investment fell from 14.4% (2010-2021) to -1.2% (2022-2025) [4]. Housing Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the cost of buying a home has become less favorable compared to renting, with mortgage rates averaging 3.9% and second-hand home price growth at -4.8% from 2022 to 2025, leading to a buying cost of 8.7% [5]. - This unfavorable comparison has exerted downward pressure on housing prices [5]. Impact of Interest Rates - Interest rates significantly influence housing prices, with even minor reductions in rates having substantial effects on price increases [6]. - The decline in private investment has weakened overall spending growth, leading to slower income growth for residents, which adversely affects consumption [6]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining necessary government borrowing and spending while emphasizing the importance of loose monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy should aim to improve expectations and optimize the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investment and consumer spending [7]. - Achieving these changes requires a decisive stance from the central bank on inflation targets and a significant reduction in policy interest rates [7].

来源：金十 一位新的领跑者已经出现在美联储主席的角逐中，而他的当选可能从根本上改变该央行的政策制定方 式。预测市场Polymarket目前将贝莱德的里克·瑞德（Rick Rieder）稳固地置于领先地位。此举若成真， 将意味着在美联储面临巨大政治压力和高度审视的时刻， 市场经验丰富的老将、而非学术经济学家将 执掌利率决策之舵。他的崛起不仅仅是一则人事新闻；这可能是货币政策的一个潜在转折点。 瑞德获胜的几率已从本月中旬的仅6%飙升至如今的超过60%，而特朗普在最近达沃斯世界经济论坛的 采访中称他"令人印象深刻"。特朗普表示："我会说我们已缩小到三个人选，其实是两个。我大概可以 告诉你，在我看来，可能只剩下一个了。" 提名预计将于1月底前公布。 一位与白宫降息诉求相符的美联储人选 白宫已非常明确地表示，希望看到央行采取更激进的货币政策。特朗普政府正倚赖美联储帮助降低利率 并促进经济增长。 在剩余的四位候选人中，瑞德被认为拥有最丰富的市场经验，他担任贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官， 同时管理着约2.4万亿美元的债券策略。他很可能会被视为历史上最具市场洞察力的美联储主席。 尽管他未曾有过在美联储或政府的正式任职经验，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS's 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook report indicates that the seemingly robust growth of the U.S. economy is heavily reliant on the AI sector, and a potential AI bubble burst could raise the probability of a recession to 50% [1] Economic Growth and Risks - The foundation of U.S. economic growth is extremely narrow, with AI-related equipment investment increasing by approximately 17% over the past four quarters, while non-AI equipment investment has declined by about 1% [3] - Non-residential construction investment has contracted for six consecutive quarters, and residential investment has decreased in four out of the last five quarters [3] - Without the contribution from AI, the U.S. economy is essentially stagnating [3] - Consumer spending shows a K-shaped divergence, with high-income groups benefiting from AI-driven stock market wealth effects, while middle and low-income groups face erosion of purchasing power due to inflation and tariffs [3] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market's weakness is more pronounced than surface data suggests, with non-farm employment declining by an average of 41,000 per month in the last four months of 2025 when excluding healthcare and social assistance sectors [3] - The broader U-6 unemployment rate has risen to 8.43%, significantly above pre-pandemic levels [3] - There are indications that current employment data may overestimate job growth by about 60,000 per month, suggesting that labor market weakness poses a risk to the economy [3] Monetary Policy Insights - UBS believes that the market has mispriced the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with current expectations suggesting a delay until June [4] - Factors such as actual labor market weakness and potential soft signals from the February non-farm report indicate a higher necessity for rate cuts before June than the market anticipates [4] - UBS forecasts two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate target range down to 3.00%-3.25% [4] Market Divergence - There is a clear divide among market participants regarding UBS's outlook, with optimistic views suggesting a 2.7% GDP growth in 2026 and a 36% year-on-year increase in AI-related capital expenditures [5] - Some institutions agree with UBS's assessment of economic fragility, highlighting the risks associated with over-reliance on AI and the hidden weakness in the labor market [5] Tariff Policy Implications - The current weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 13.2%, equivalent to a tax burden of 1.1% of GDP, which is gradually being passed on to consumers and pushing core PCE inflation higher [6] - Inflation is expected to peak in the summer of 2026 and remain around 3% in the long term, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [6] - Fiscal policy may provide short-term support, but the impact of tax rebates in Q2 2026 is expected to diminish quickly [6] - Key variables influencing the U.S. economic trajectory and Federal Reserve policy include the conversion of AI investment into productivity gains, the visibility of labor market weakness, the extent of tariff-induced inflation, and the Fed's balancing act between inflation and employment goals [6]