受短期交易员获利了结影响，金价下跌。High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示，当前金价 回落更多反映的是此前大幅上涨后的正常获利回吐，而非趋势性反转。 美国就业数据意外疲软，成为金价企稳的关键支撑。11月职位空缺降幅超出预期，12月ADP私人部门就 业岗位新增远低于预期，仅有微弱增长。这一系列数据表明，美国劳动力市场正在冷却，强化了市场对 美联储进一步宽松政策的预期。 周四(1月8日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格在连续上涨后出现技术性回调，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4440.88 美元/盎司，下跌0.32%，最高触及4465.83美元/盎司，最低下探4432.99美元/盎司。市场风险情绪趋于缓 和，部分资金选择获利了结，目前市场在等待周四公布美国当周初请失业金人数以及周五美国非农数 据，若数据强于预期，则施压美联储降息预期，不利金价走强，短期来看，黄金依然处于高位震荡之 中。 根据LSEG数据，投资者目前押注2026年美联储将累计降息61个基点。周五即将公布的非农就业报告将 成为下一个焦点，如果继续疲软，金价很可能快速反弹。疲软的经济信号，往往是黄金作为无息资产的 利好，因为低利率环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, indicating weakened rebound momentum, yet remain above the mid-range and short-term moving averages, suggesting a bullish advantage and potential re-entry opportunity for investors [1] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,495.54 per ounce, reached a daily high of $4,500.27, then encountered resistance and declined, recording a daily low of $4,423.39 before closing at $4,456.29, with a daily fluctuation of $76.88, ultimately down by $39.25 or 0.87% [3] - The decline was influenced by profit-taking at the $4,500 resistance level, but support buying and weaker-than-expected "non-farm payroll" data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside central banks of major Asian countries increasing gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month [3] Market Outlook - On January 9, gold opened slightly higher and experienced fluctuations, constrained by the previous day's decline and a strengthening U.S. dollar index; however, the outlook remains bullish for gold prices, with limited pressure despite the dollar's rebound nearing resistance levels [3]

摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.74美元，跌幅 0.17%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1001.86元/克，最高价1004.25元/克，最低价998.44元/克。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.74美元，跌幅 0.17%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1001.86元/克，最高价1004.25元/克，最低价998.44元/克。 【要闻速递】 近期黄金下跌主要源于前期大涨后的获利了结。2025年底金价一度冲上4550美元历史高位，2026年初虽 有回落，但仍处超高位运行。盘中现货金最低跌至4422.89美元，跌幅达1.7%，反映部分资金锁定利润 以规避风险。 不过，尾盘跌幅明显收窄，美国就业数据疲软成为支撑因素。11月职位空缺降幅超预期，12月ADP新增 就业远低于预期，显示劳动力市场降温，强化市场对美联储进一步宽松的预期。投资者目前押注2026年 美联储累计降息61个基点。周五将公布的非农就业报告若继续疲软，金价可能快速反弹，因为低利率环 境会降低持有黄金的机会成本，利好这一无息资产。 【最新现货黄金 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, driven by loose liquidity, central bank gold purchases, and supply - demand gaps for silver and platinum [2]. - The long - slow bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, with the triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11]. - Different varieties have different trends. For example, crude oil is expected to be bearish, while rubber is expected to be bullish [14][16]. 3. Summary by Category a. Market News - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3579 trillion, a month - on - month increase of $1.15 billion, hitting a new high since December 2015. Gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces, with 14 consecutive months of increase [1][8]. - The central bank will conduct a 3 - month 1.1 trillion yuan repurchase operation on January 8 [1][7]. - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The US ISM services PMI in December 2025 rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024. US private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous decline but lower than market expectations [1]. b. Key Varieties Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a volatile consolidation. Gold's long - term upward trend is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum prices are expected to rise due to macro - environment and supply - demand gaps [2][20]. - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes were mixed. In China, the A - share market is expected to benefit from supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, and overseas capital inflows, consolidating the long - slow bull market pattern [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds declined slightly. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and economic data affect the bond market. The short - term price of treasury bond futures is supported by expected policy easing, but the stock - bond seesaw effect makes the bond price weak [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is expected to be bearish. Methanol is in a short - term weakening trend due to factors such as inventory increases. Rubber is expected to be bullish as supply elasticity weakens [14][15][16]. - **Metals**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - environment. Carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term [21][22][24]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by Brazilian soybean production and domestic supply expectations. Oils and fats have limited short - term fundamental improvement. Sugar is expected to be in a short - term volatile trend. Cotton is supported by factors such as reduced planting area expectations [28][29][32]. - **Shipping Index**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may see a turning point as the Spring Festival approaches [33].

美国将于周四公布当周初请失业金人数，周五发布的12月非农就业报告则是市场关注的焦点。市场预期 12月新增就业约6万人，失业率或小幅降至4.5%。这些数据将为评估美国经济韧性及美联储未来利率路 径提供重要依据。 若就业数据不及预期，可能强化市场对美联储年内降息的预期，进而压低实际利率，降低持有无息资产 黄金的机会成本，对金价构成支撑；反之，若数据表现强劲，金价短期或继续承压整理。 摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并 刷新阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧 有所降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并刷新 阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧有所 降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 【基本面解析】 与此同时，市场逐渐进入观望模式，静待本周美国一系列关键宏观数据集中公布。当前金价回落更多是 前期大幅上涨后的正常获利回吐，而非趋势性反转。 黄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products will move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum was strong at a high level. The US December non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, which led to an increase in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - In the spot market, downstream procurement in East China is active due to low basis; trading sentiment in the Central Plains has improved, but there is little market supply; the South China market is hot, with tight arrivals, inventory reduction, and strong bullish sentiment among holders [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises dropped by 1 percentage point to 59.9%. Aluminum foil operating rate remained stable, while other processing materials declined to varying degrees [2] - Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons. The inventory at the end of December increased by nearly 15% compared to December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to the combination of increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high prices suppressing consumption [2] - Macro - sentiment boosts the price, but the domestic off - season continues with inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to high - price risks, macro - heat sustainability, and downstream feedback [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by speculative funds, with expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy leading to lower real interest rates, thus reducing the holding costs of gold [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 7, 2026, the London spot gold price opened at $4,494.59 per ounce, with a monthly increase exceeding 9% [1]. - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates is notably negative, with current economic indicators suggesting a weakening labor market and declining consumer confidence, which heightens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][3]. - The lack of significant changes in fundamental factors indicates that the recent volatility in gold prices is largely driven by speculative trading rather than institutional investment [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Global central bank demand for gold remains robust, with a net purchase of 45 tons in November 2025, bringing the total for the year to 297 tons, primarily driven by emerging market central banks [3]. - The ongoing accumulation of gold reserves by central banks reflects a strategic shift away from reliance on a single reserve currency, enhancing gold's status as a "legal tender substitute" [3]. Group 3: Silver Market Influence - The recent bullish trend in the silver market has contributed to the rise in gold prices, with significant demand for physical silver leading to a squeeze in supply [4]. - Speculative funds have increasingly flowed into the silver market, which may spill over into the gold market, further driving up prices [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite potential short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic, with projections suggesting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026 due to sustained demand from central banks and investors [5][6]. - The anticipated demand from central banks is expected to remain strong, with an estimated purchase of 755 tons in 2026, which is still significantly higher than pre-2022 averages [6]. - The direction of U.S. monetary policy will be a critical factor influencing gold prices, with expectations of continued liquidity support if economic growth slows [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 14 consecutive daily gains, while the CSI 300 index adjusted. Different futures varieties also had diverse price trends, influenced by various factors such as supply - demand, international market conditions, and macro - economic situations [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4085.77, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to 14030.56, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31% to 3329.69. The trading volume of the two markets reached 28,818 billion yuan, an increase of 492 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4776.67, down 14.03 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 7, the coke weighted index closed at 1774.5, up 131.6. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1165.8 yuan, up 87.3. Coke inventory turned to slight destocking. The price drivers include winter - storage replenishment demand and South American macro - situation changes. Coking coal supply decreased, coke supply slightly increased, demand improved with the resumption of hot - metal production, and inventory changes varied [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of the Brazilian real and other factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan had produced 39.23 million tons of sugar with a production rate of 11.34%, and sold 28.14 million tons with a sales rate of 71.72%. Guangxi had produced 194.19 million tons of mixed sugar, sold 88.48 million tons, with a sales rate of 45.56% [4] Rubber - Due to concerns about wet weather in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, Southeast Asian spot prices continued to rise. Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday and adjusted at night. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a 16% month - on - month decrease and a 13% year - on - year increase [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 7, CBOT soybean futures rose. Exporters sold 336,000 tons of US soybeans to China. Brazil is expected to have a bumper harvest, and its December soybean exports increased 69% year - on - year. Domestically, the M2605 contract rose 1.26% to 2811 yuan/ton. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,785 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The supply pressure at the beginning of January decreased, but there was still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. The demand was strong, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improved, but the long - term supply pressure remained [5] Palm Oil - On January 7, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate within a range and closed slightly higher. The main contract P2605 closed at 8562, up 0.73%. Malaysia's palm oil production in December was estimated to decrease 4.64% to 1.84 million tons [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened at 104,480 yuan/ton, closed at 103,410 yuan/ton, with a high of 105,500 yuan/ton and a low of 102,330 yuan/ton. It rose 0.11%. The core drivers included supply disruptions, low TC/RC, Fed rate - cut expectations, and rising domestic PMI, but high prices inhibited consumption, and inventory increased [5] Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,870 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 225 lots. The new import tariff quota policy boosted the domestic imported cotton market, and the sales of bonded cotton at ports increased [6] Iron Ore - On January 7, the iron ore 2605 main contract rose 4.09% to close at 828 yuan. The global iron ore shipment was high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. With the improvement of steel - mill profitability and the end of blast - furnace maintenance, the iron - water output was expected to rise, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 7, the asphalt 2602 main contract fell 0.13% to close at 3151 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries in January was expected to decrease, and the South American geopolitical situation increased the uncertainty of raw - material supply. With weak downstream demand, the short - term price was volatile [6] Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 776, closed at 782, with a daily increase of 961 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7] Steel - On January 7, rb2605 was at 3187 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was at 3332 yuan/ton. The cost of steel decreased slightly, and some steel mills resumed production. With the increase in coke and iron ore futures, the short - term steel price rebounded, but the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season might limit the rebound space [7] Alumina - On January 7, ao2605 was at 2938 yuan/ton. The spot market trading volume increased. Enterprises might have a stronger willingness to cut production, and the production - cut expectation would support the price to stabilize and fluctuate [7] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 7, al2602 was at 24,360 yuan/ton. The macro - situation was positive, and the non - ferrous metals continued to rise. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulation slowed down, and the demand improved slightly [8]

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.65%报 4467.1 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 3.77%报 77.98 美 元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.31%报 1002.2 元/克，沪银收跌 2.99%报 19020 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 7 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上个交易日维持不 变，当前持仓量为 1067.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日减少 18.33 吨，当前持仓量为 16099.83 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率 ...

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and a decline, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable. The macroeconomic indicators from the US show a recovery in demand and employment, with the ISM services PMI reaching 54.4, the highest in over a year, and ADP employment increasing by 41,000 jobs [3][8] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,850 tons to 143,225 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 3,256 tons to 464,910 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 3,203 tons to 96,474 tons [3][8] - Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, maintaining rigid procurement demand. The market is experiencing increased divergence, with precious metals and non-ferrous sectors cooling down, indicating a potential orderly adjustment beneficial for future trends [3][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 4.21% to $17,655 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.44% to 143,280 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 20,088 tons to 275,634 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 612 tons to 38,776 tons [9][11] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to approximately 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025. Vale's Indonesian subsidiary has paused nickel mining due to unapproved production plans [11] - The recent rise in nickel prices is driven by market sentiment and Indonesian policy changes, with primary nickel production increasing by 18.5% to 37,200 tons. However, hedging demand may exert pressure on prices [11] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,889 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a decline, with AL2602 at 24,135 yuan per ton, down 1.21% [12] - The SMM aluminum oxide price fell to 2,681 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot spot prices saw a discount of 200 yuan per ton. The market is facing inventory pressure due to increased shipments from Xinjiang and reduced outflows from major sales areas [12] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reignited enthusiasm for precious metals, contributing to rising aluminum prices. However, the market faces challenges with inventory accumulation and potential price increases [12] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,980 yuan per ton, up 1.07%. The reference price for industrial silicon remained stable at 9,603 yuan per ton [13] - Polysilicon prices experienced a decline, with the main contract at 58,300 yuan per ton, down 2.13%. The market is facing challenges due to reduced production quotas and environmental regulations impacting supply [13] - The industry anticipates a potential reduction in polysilicon supply due to self-regulation and coordinated production cuts, which may provide strong support for prices [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 4.54% to 142,300 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 6,000 yuan to 133,500 yuan per ton. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate also saw a rise of 5,750 yuan to 130,000 yuan per ton [14][15] - Weekly lithium production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with lithium spodumene and lithium mica production also rising. However, forecasts indicate a 1.2% decrease in lithium carbonate production for January 2026 [14][15] - Concerns over actual lithium resource supply due to geopolitical and policy factors persist, with expectations that price increases may be more easily transmitted downstream, although acceptance of high prices by end-users remains uncertain [15]