| 贵金属日评20250605:美国部分经济数据初现走弱迹象,关注今日欧洲央行6月利率决议 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-03 | 2025-05-28 | 2025-06-04 | 收盘价 | 772. 28 | 783.10 | 10.14 | 782. 42 | -0. 68 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 210848.00 | 191944.00 | 131022.00 | 60, 922. 00 | -18, 904. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 180833.00 | 199056.00 | 180310.00 | -523.00 | -18, 746. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

贵金属日报:聚焦非农 回调布多 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月5日 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线延续震荡调整，关注90天关税暂停观察期在后半程的博弈与进展，预计随着波动下 降，贵金属选择向上突破可能性大于向下。伦敦金阻力3385-3400区域，强阻力3440-3500区域；支撑 3355，3300，3200，3100；伦敦银支撑34.2，33.6，阻力上移至34.8-35区域。我们仍将短线回调视为 中长期做多机会，但近期或维持高位震荡为主。 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属震荡微涨，晚间公布的美ADP小非农与ISM服务业PMI数据不佳，略微提升美联储年内降息 预期，特别是9月降息预期有所回升，推动美指与10Y美债收益率回落，利多贵金属价格。最终黄金2508 合约收报3397.4美元/盎司，+0.6%；美白银2507合约收报于34.655美元/盎司，+0.06%。 SHFE黄金 2508主力合约收报782.42元/克，-0.41%；SHFE白银2508合约收8463元/千克，+0.05%。 【资金与库存】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 期指：美联储降息预期升温，偏强震荡 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3868.74 | ↑0.43 | | 2117.4 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3842.4 | ↑0.41 | -26.34 | 547.7 | 47487 | ↓5473 | 116411 | ↓7467 | | IF2507 | 3803.2 | ↑0.39 | -65.54 | 41.6 | 3641 | ↓717 | 13559 | ↑205 | | IF2509 | 3769.4 | ↑0.37 | -99.34 | 166.4 | ...

黄金技术面分析：周三黄金盘面回撤调整后，再次探底回升，晚间盘面慢牛反弹，最高再次回到3385附 近，逼近前期高点的齐跌位置，一方面反弹出现连续性，另一方面吃掉了昨日晚盘的回落，这个时候一 定不是走弱的行情。再一个就是注意行情的节奏，最近的行情基本是十点前后一波，下午基本是鸡肋， 尤其是欧盘时间段，就是来回晃悠，而晚盘就是九到十点这个时间段会延续亚盘的形态。所以今日短线 日内布局就卡这个节奏来参与。目前短线陷入高位震荡钝化。日线图反复测试高点但突破仍缺少动能。 日线图开始进入收缩震荡当中。布林道开始收口。所以还是不要贸然的去追多，主要是做节奏。 日线图上黄金早上先是快速下跌，造成诱空的局面，然后晚上暴力拉升到3385，把追空的一车带走。从 4小时分析来看，今日下方支撑关注3355-58一线附近，日线级别企稳此位置上方继续看多头强势震荡上 行节奏，重点关注3350一线多空风水岭，短线价格交投3383一线，该位置已经现价通知做空。多头收割 完之后就开始高空，不过当天重要多空分水岭咱们需要关注3368美元一线！如果价格顺利高位按照预期 走弱，跌破且失守该位置之后。空头估计会去测试3350一线，当日空头最大下限可看至3 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-05 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 最新的美国经济数据不及预期，美国经济下行压力加剧，美元 短期走弱。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数近一年来首次萎缩 经济下行风险不断积累，但在降息预期的支撑下，市场风险偏 好并未明显回落，美股延续震荡走势。 综 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 合 河北炼焦煤市场持稳运行 晨 报 短期来看，焦煤基本面暂无明显变化，更多是交易基差和情绪 修复，后续需关注供应变化 有色金属（锌） 上海锌：下游企业畏高，成交表现较差 CSZTP 发布 3Q25 进口加工费指导区间于 80-100 美元/干吨，对 应国内 TC 在 4000-4500 元/吨，预计年内加工费仍有不小上行空 间。 能源化工（纯碱） 6 月 4 日华北市场纯碱价格行情 今日纯碱期价涨幅较大，一方面受益于市场整体风险偏好回升， 另一方面也是联碱法成本附近本身存在一定支撑。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 ...

当地时间4日，由于"小非农"ADP就业数据和ISM服务业数据双双表现欠佳，美股市场承压， 美元指数走低。 美国就业市场意外"爆冷"，降息预期飙升 据券商中国，4日晚，素有"小非农"之称的ADP数据显示，美国招聘放缓至两年来最慢速度。 美国5月ADP就业人数仅增加3.7万人，是自2023年3月以来的最低水平，大幅不及预期。 这表 明在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，劳动力市场可能正在走弱。 具体来看，美国5月ADP就业人数3.7万人，为2023年3月以来最小增幅，市场预期为11万人， 前值为6.2万人。 图源/上海证券报 特朗普急了：现在必须降息！ 据上海证券报，在美国5月ADP就业数据发布后，美国总统特朗普再度发帖喊话美联储主席鲍 威尔。 特朗普写道："ADP就业报告出来了，'太迟先生'鲍威尔现在必须降息。这太难以置信 了！欧洲已经降息了九次！" 当前投资者正密切等待本周五美国劳工统计局（BLS）正式发布的5月非农就业报告。有分析 称，如果本周五公布的美国5月非农就业数据不及预期，美联储可能面临更大的政策调整压 力。 据央视新闻，当地时间4日，美联储发布的最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称"褐皮书"） 显示， ...

美东时间周三，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指跌0.22%，纳指涨0.32%，标普500指数涨0.01%。热门科 技股涨跌不一，Meta涨超3%，博通、AMD涨超1%，特斯拉跌超3%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.04%，热门中概股多数上涨，蔚来涨超6%，阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车、金山云涨超3%，京东 涨超2%，百度、哔哩哔哩涨超1%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.30%，报13371点。 恒指期货夜盘收涨0.54%，报23666点，高水12点。 中概股普涨，阿里涨近4% 美东时间周三，三大指数涨跌不一，道指小幅收跌，结束了此前连续四天的上涨走势，标普500指数微涨0.01%，纳指 小幅上涨。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.22%，报42427.74点；标普500指数涨0.01%，报5970.81点；纳斯达克指数涨0.32%，报 19460.49点。周三公布的数据显示，5月份美国服务业活动意外收缩，ISM服务业PMI指数为49.9，低于50荣枯分水 岭；5月ADP就业仅新增3.7万个岗位，为两年多来最慢的增速。 周三纽约尾盘（周四北京时间04:59），离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.1713元，较周二纽约尾盘 ...

世界500强投资企业 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/3 | 3360. 36 | 35. 30 | 3385. 00 | 34. 39 | 783. 10 | 8456. 00 | 779.42 | 8420.00 | ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, the Shanghai precious metals market closed higher across the board. Trump's decision to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% led to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion, causing a significant short - term rise in gold prices. [2] - In the short term, gold may face insufficient upward momentum. The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI hit a new low since November 2024, indicating potential upward pressure on the economy. [2] - Fed officials' dovish signals on interest - rate cuts have boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts. Global gold ETFs showed a net outflow in May, but central bank gold purchases have offset some of the outflows. [2] - Geopolitical risks are continuously rising, which has continuously boosted the safe - haven property of gold. Silver has maintained a strong trend due to the strength of gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline in the short term. [2] - In the long term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - term global de - dollarization trend, which is structurally beneficial to gold prices. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, and it may maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 783.1 yuan/gram, up 11.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8456 yuan/kg, up 238 yuan. [2] - The positions of the Shanghai Gold main contract were 180,833 lots, down 413 lots; the positions of the Shanghai Silver main contract were 370,146 lots, up 36,120 lots. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 125,869 lots, up 888 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 144,704 lots, down 8,409 lots. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,068,846 kg, up 1,961 kg. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 781.3 yuan/gram, up 14.8 yuan; the silver spot price was 8425 yuan/kg, up 245 yuan. [2] - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.8 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 31 yuan/kg, up 7 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Gold ETF holdings were 933.07 tons, up 2.87 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,351.82 tons, up 48.07 tons. [2] - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 174,184 contracts, up 10,203 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 53,012 contracts, up 2,970 contracts. [2] - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. [2] - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.57%, up 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.14%, down 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 23.13%, down 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.14%, down 0.27 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The EU is deeply regretful about Trump's decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, which has increased economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. [2] - The Trump administration has requested the federal appellate court to block the order of the former District of Columbia Federal District Court ruling its tariff policy as "illegal". [2] - The Institute of International Finance has warned that the soaring US debt may trigger a global bond - market crisis. [2] - Fed official Goolsbee said that the direct impact of tariffs on the economy is unexpectedly limited, and interest rates are expected to decline in the next 12 - 18 months. [2] - The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, a new low since November 2024. [2]

2025年6月1日 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 沪锌周报 消费渐入淡季； 锌锭产量仍增 核心要点及策略 | | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | | 行情回顾 | 本周沪锌主力2507合约周五下午收于22225元/吨，周环比涨0.05%。本周沪锌盘面延续震荡：周 | | | 初欧盟与美关税摩擦有缓和预期，阻止美关税的裁决一度提振乐观情绪，但美联储会议纪要显示 | | | 降息预期谨慎，宏观驱动有限；锌锭产量预计仍增、社库偏低，基本面短期僵持，沪锌震荡。 | | | 宏观，关税摩擦反复、美联储降息预期谨慎，宏观难乐观。供给，5月国内部分冶炼厂提产，目 | | | 进口锌锭流入，供给高。受进口锌精矿补充，6月加工费续涨，冶炼厂生产积极性高，前期投产 | | 运行逻辑 | 治炼厂产出、部分检修冶炼厂复产，6月产量预计仍增。需求，本周下游开工降低：镀锌开工降, | | | 端午多数企业放假，黑色价格跌、镀锌管走货不佳，镀锌结构件需求偏弱，铁塔订单尚可，镀锌 | | | 下周开工预计回升；压铸锌合金开工降，下游逐步进入淡季、消费偏弱，下周开工预计有所回升； | | | ...