2025年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展。党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议召开，为推动高 质量发展注入强大动力。在此背景下，如何看待当前中国经济形势，2026年我国经济又将有哪些核心增 长点？《证券日报》采访了八大首席经济学家进行深入解读。 2025年经济韧性凸显 中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛表示，2026年赤字率保持不低于4%，广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右，支出 端进一步强化"投资于人"的领域。 分析原因，温彬表示，考虑到2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，对于稳定预期和提振信心至关重要，而 在复杂的内外部形势之下，我国发展面临的不确定因素增多，有必要发挥积极财政政策作用，加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度，并注重提升政策效能，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 12月份以来，多家国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF（国际货币基金组织）预计2025年中国经济 增速为5%，较10月份预测上调0.2个百分点。世界银行预测为4.9%，较6月份预测上调0.4个百分点。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬告诉《证券日报》记者，今年以来，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出 充足韧性。更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming economic strategy in China is on domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market as highlighted in the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1] - Experts indicate that the most pressing issue in China's economic operation is the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, which will be a key factor in observing future economic developments [1] - Zhang Bin from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences suggests that breaking the negative transmission chain of insufficient demand is crucial, advocating for policies that focus on changing "fast variables" like credit and investment to stimulate "slow variables" such as income and consumption [1] Group 2 - Huang Wentao, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, interprets the recent emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, indicating future policy directions [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent Central Economic Work Conference both stress the integration of investment in physical goods and human capital, with expected increased fiscal support for areas related to health, employment, and education [2] - Service consumption is identified as a key pillar for expanding domestic demand, with expectations that China's per capita GDP will reach $14,000 by the end of this year, paving the way for rapid growth in service consumption [2] Group 3 - The "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs for consumer goods, is recognized as a practical measure to boost consumption, with plans to optimize its implementation [2] - Suggestions for optimizing policy subsidies include focusing on service goods and infrastructure investments, such as sports facilities and theaters, which can ultimately enhance consumer experiences [2] - The government has made positive strides in areas like childbirth and preschool education subsidies, indicating a promising start for future policies aimed at reducing living costs and promoting consumption growth [3]

《求是》杂志近日刊文将"扩大内需"明确为战略之举，其分量堪比当年"房住不炒""科技自立自强"的提出。这不仅关乎宏观经济走向，更牵动每个普通人的 钱袋子，此次"扩大内需"绝非简单"催消费"，而是关乎经济安全与民生底气的深层变革。 一提"提振消费"，不少人就觉得"又要掏腰包"：消费贷、以旧换新、消费券……这些举措多是提前释放需求，治标不治本。2025年11月全国社会消费品零售 总额创历史新低，印证了这种模式的局限，消费提振已陷入"越刺激越乏力"的困境。 收入分配改革是核心，通过平衡贫富差距，推动"哑铃型"社会向"橄榄型"转变，扩大中等收入群体，才能形成稳定消费力。 问题核心并非"不想消费"，谁不愿买新东西、享好生活？症结在于"不能"与"不敢"：收入有限是"不能"的现实，养老医疗等后顾之忧是"不敢"的根源。过往 政策却忽略根本：若不解决"有钱花、敢花钱"的前提，再密集的刺激也只是无源之水。 此次《求是》文章的突破，在于跳出"刺激消费"惯性，提出"扩大内需"完整概念：涵盖消费需求、投资需求与金融需求，三者构成"内需三角"，而非单 一"花钱命题"。 中国经济"三驾马车"中，出口曾长期发力，但大国经济根基必扎于内需，这正 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent developments in consumer spending and the government's stance on expanding domestic demand, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment [2][3][5] - The article highlights that the government's recent document titled "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" has led to misconceptions that it solely pertains to consumer spending, while it actually encompasses both consumption and investment [3][4] - The government's attitude towards consumption has shown a gradual improvement, as evidenced by the stronger language used in the latest five-year plan compared to previous plans [4][5] Group 2 - Despite the positive signals from the government, actual consumer stimulus measures remain limited, with only minor initiatives like subsidies for trade-ins and childbirth support [6][7] - The primary issue affecting consumer spending is the decline in household wealth due to falling property prices and pessimistic income expectations, which has led to a lack of motivation for consumers to borrow for spending [7][8] - Recent economic data indicates a significant slowdown in consumer spending, with retail sales growth in November at only 1.3%, marking a long-term low, particularly in categories like home appliances and furniture [10][11][12]

零售板块，过去几年在A股市场上一直较为冷淡。 以零售板块龙头永辉超市为例，自2020年4月以来，永辉股价持续下跌，至2024年"924"行情之前，永辉股价已然跌去近70%。 回看板块内其他企业，也是如此。 "924"行情以前，东百集团等一众零售商场上市公司，要么持续阴跌，要么横盘近四年。 但最近，零售板块集体躁动。 百大集团直接收获六连板，东百集团10天6板，红旗连锁、广百股份、茂业商业接连涨停，连沉寂多年的永辉也收获多个涨停板。 但在市场热情和政策暖风之下，零售板块，到底能否彻底反转？ 01 零售板块这一波行情，来源于近期一系列的政策利好。 此前，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，位列明年八大重点任务之首。 近日，国家发改委也在《求是》发文，再次强调要"坚定实施扩大内需战略"，核心在于"提升居民消费意愿"和"增强居民消费能力"，无不彰显了国家层面提 振消费的决心。 在最近召开的中国经济年会上，国家发展改革委副秘书长肖渭明表示，要全方位扩大国内需求，深入实施提振消费专项行动，加快放宽服务消费限制，加快 出台实施首发经济、赛事经济、电子商务、"人工智能+"消费等领域提振消费的政策。 不难想象 ...

Macro Analysis - The central economic work conference highlighted ongoing challenges in the economy, including external environmental changes and risks in key sectors, while emphasizing the need to balance domestic economic work and international trade struggles [2][3] - The conference introduced five "musts" for economic work, focusing on the integration of investment in physical and human capital and the importance of internal strengthening to address external challenges [2] Policy Orientation - The policy tone for the upcoming year shifts from "strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," indicating a decrease in urgency but maintaining a proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policy [3] - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary levels of deficit, debt, and total expenditure, while monetary policy will focus on stabilizing growth and promoting inflation, with expectations for adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements [3] Key Economic Work Areas - The economic work for the next year will focus on eight key areas, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand through urban renewal policies and increasing investment scale to counteract negative growth in investment [7] - The conference reiterated the importance of stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, including inventory reduction and supply optimization, indicating a potentially more proactive stance on real estate policies [8][18] Real Estate Market Insights - The conference emphasized "high-quality urban renewal" as a crucial strategy for expanding investment and stimulating domestic demand, with expectations for financial tools to support urban renewal projects [17] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market has shifted from aggressive measures to a more balanced approach, with an emphasis on controlling supply and inventory while encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [18][20] ESG Developments - The report highlighted significant ESG policies, including the expansion of the national carbon trading market and the promotion of integrated development in the renewable energy sector, which are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals [21][22] - The issuance of green financial bonds and the successful launch of digital green bonds in Hong Kong reflect growing market recognition and support for sustainable finance initiatives [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector in the A-share market has shown signs of recovery after a prolonged period of decline, driven by recent favorable policies and a shift in consumer behavior towards increased domestic demand [6][9][30]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading retail company, Yonghui Supermarket, has seen its stock price drop nearly 70% since April 2020, prior to the recent market rally [1]. - Other retail companies, such as Dongbai Group, have also experienced stagnant performance, with many retail stocks recently showing significant gains, including multiple trading halts due to price increases [3][9]. Group 2: Policy Support - Recent government policies emphasize the importance of domestic demand and consumer spending, with the central economic work conference prioritizing the construction of a strong domestic market [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has reiterated its commitment to expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer capacity, indicating a clear intention to boost consumption [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - In the first nine months of 2025, the value added by wholesale and retail industries grew by 5.6%, maintaining a stable GDP contribution of 10.3% [11]. - Retail sales increased by 4.6%, with physical retail formats like convenience stores and supermarkets showing growth [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The retail industry has faced unprecedented challenges, particularly from e-commerce, which has permanently shifted consumer behavior towards online shopping [18]. - Traditional retailers are experiencing rising operational costs, which are squeezing profit margins, leading to significant performance disparities among companies [18][20]. Group 5: Transformation and New Trends - The retail sector is undergoing a transformation from a focus on scale expansion to high-quality development, emphasizing customer experience over mere product sales [20][28]. - New retail formats are emerging, with companies like Hema and discount stores expanding rapidly, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics within the industry [25][27]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite recent positive signals, the retail sector's fundamental challenges remain, with ongoing adjustments and potential for further differentiation among companies based on their ability to adapt [30].

会议明确了继续保持"更加积极有为的宏观政策"总基调，财政政策"更加积极"，货币政策"适度宽松"， 这为经济持续回升向好提供了坚实的政策环境。 2025年财政政策较2024年进一步加码、新增债务规模达到2.9万亿元，本次会议维持了"更加积极"的财 政政策定调，2026年财政政策在总量层面有望继续保持力度。会议在"优化财政支出结构"之前强调 要"加强财政科学管理"，指向更加重视财政政策的效果。 值得注意的是，会议强调"重视解决地方财政困难"，"优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政 府融资平台经营性债务风险"，"督促各地主动化债"，故2026年关于债务问题解决的相关具体举措值得 期待。 本报讯 （记者徐一鸣）2025年中央经济工作会议为新一年乃至"十五五"开局起步时期的经济发展锚定 航向、凝聚共识。会议立足中国式现代化建设全局，深刻分析当前经济发展面临的新形势、新挑战，明 确提出"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"的核心目标，部署了一系列稳增长、促转型、防风 险、惠民生的重大举措，为准确把握发展方向、谋划明年工作提供了根本遵循。作为连接实体经济与金 融市场的关键枢纽，金融机构肩负着传导政策红利、服务发展 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand as key tasks outlined in the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP reached 101.5 trillion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by only 4.5%, indicating a gap between consumption growth and GDP growth [2] - Zhang Zhigang highlights the urgency of addressing the downward pressure on the economy and insufficient effective demand, which are significant issues affecting the healthy development of China's economic cycle [2] Group 2 - The expansion of service consumption, digital consumption, and the promotion of green consumption are becoming new pursuits in line with the trends towards new, green, and quality consumption [3] - In agriculture, grain production remains stable at 1.4 trillion jin, with agricultural technology contributing 63.2% to progress, and over 96% of crop coverage with quality seeds, enhancing the supply of commercial consumption [3] - The transportation network, including a high-speed rail network of over 48,000 kilometers, significantly improves commercial circulation and trade space, with advancements in maritime routes like the ice silk road [3] Group 3 - The implementation of a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is identified as a key task for next year's economic work, aligning with the Central Economic Work Conference's directives [4] - Innovation and reform are emphasized as ongoing processes, with a commitment to using innovative development as a driving force for modernizing commercial development in China [4]

以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 最近不少人问消费是不是要反转了，消费是不是要来行情了。 主要是消费最近有几个事情，一个是茅台主动控量，许多人以周期视角看，觉得去库存后，股价就应该差不多了。 另一个是官方发了一篇文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。这一看，不得了了，消费还不得猛猛干。 但是，且收住你们的情绪， 消 费不是科技 股，不是只言片语就能被打动的，也不会短时间就突突上涨，完全不给上车机会。 所以多给点时间想清楚，不用火急火燎做决策。 01 消费的政策面逐渐U起来了 官方发的《扩大内需是战略之举》，许多人有个误会，觉得内需就是消费。其实不是的，国内官方任何场合提的内需都是既有消费，也包括投 资。 这篇文章发出来的时候港股还在交易，港股流动性差，容易应激，如果标题把内需换成消费，港股会立即原地起飞。而当时港股动都没动。 我们拿之前的十五五规划来讲，十五五规划的目标对消费的描述是"居民消费率明显提升"。 往前十四五是怎么描述的呢？不好意思，目标里对消费只字未提（然后十四五这个五年大概是消费最悲催的五年，当然，悲催的原因不完全是 政府只字不提的不重视） ...