央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月27日（周一）， 中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 9000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年鉴 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | ...

当前市场关注的焦点在美国的就业市场。新增非农就业人口数据主导了现阶段美联储的货币政策。由于8月和9月份的就业数据异常糟糕，所以市场人士 预期本月底和12月份的利率决议将分别降息25基点。 如果今日CPI数据公布值与预期差别不大，可能对美元、金银、美股的冲击较小。美国核心CPI年率稳定在2.8~3.3%之间，虽然高于美联储设定的2%温和 通胀标准，但比较稳定的状态不会对美联储的货币政策造成明显压力。根据公开讲话，美联储官员已经形成基本共识：通胀数据受到特朗普激进关税政 策的影响较小，但美国就业市场受到了特朗普激进移民政策的严重打击。 ▲ATFX图 今年以来，美国通胀率数据表现平稳。名义CPI年率在区间（2.3~3%）之间波动，核心CPI年率在区间（3.3~2.8%）之间波动。2022年6月份之前的通胀上 升，是因为美联储为应对大流行而过度降息。2022年6月至2024年末，通胀从高位持续回落，是因为美联储意识到通胀失控，迅速将基准利率提高至 5.25~5%的纪录高位。现如今美国通胀数据进入稳定期，美联储本可以按兵不动，不再调整利率。然而，就业市场的恶化导致经济内在平衡被打破。 ATFX汇评：今日20：30，美国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Market**: A - shares and four stock index futures rose collectively this week, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, market sentiment was boosted, but trading activity declined. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures weakened this week. Although the fundamentals and capital situation may push the bond market to strengthen, uncertainties will continue to disrupt market sentiment. It is expected that Treasury futures will fluctuate widely in the short term, and interval operations are recommended [6]. - **Commodity Market**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and gold fluctuations decrease. The short - term commodity index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to mainly observe [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar may be under pressure in the medium term. The yen is under pressure, and short - term dollar strength may suppress the euro and yen. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 3.24%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 3.35%. A - shares and four stock index futures rose, with market sentiment boosted after the Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.21%, and the main 10 - year Treasury futures fell 0.27%. Due to policy and market uncertainties, it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and interval operations are recommended [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind Commodity Index fell 4.93%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.29%. Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and gold fluctuations decrease. It is recommended to mainly observe [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.42%. The US dollar may be under pressure in the medium term, and the yen is under pressure. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6]. Important News and Events - **China - US Relations**: The two sides are about to return to the negotiation table, and Trump plans to visit China next year. China advocates resolving issues through negotiation [14][16]. - **Domestic Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized "sustained efforts in pro - growth policies" [6]. - **International Affairs**: The EU invited China to discuss rare earths, and European leaders supported the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire through negotiation. The Trump administration froze $11 billion in infrastructure funds [14][16]. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - **China**: The Q3 GDP annual rate was 4.8%, the September social consumer goods retail sales increased 3% year - on - year, and the September industrial added value increased 6.5% year - on - year [11][17]. - **US**: The September existing home sales totaled 4.06 million annualized [17]. - **EU**: The preliminary October consumer confidence index was - 14.2 [17]. - **UK**: The September CPI monthly rate was 0, and the September retail price index monthly rate was - 0.4% [17]. - **Germany**: The September PPI monthly rate was - 0.1% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **October 27**: China's January - September industrial enterprise profit annual rate, US September durable goods orders monthly rate [81]. - **October 28**: Germany's November Gfk consumer confidence index, US August S&P/CS20 city house price index annual rate [81]. - **October 30**: US Fed interest rate decision, eurozone Q3 GDP annual rate, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, etc. [81]. - **October 31**: Japan's September unemployment rate, China's October official manufacturing PMI, etc. [81].

Group 1 - The report indicates that after a significant rise in gold and silver prices over the past two months, both have recently experienced a sharp decline, with volatility reaching new highs. It suggests that gold is no longer a high-cost-performance global asset, and the price is expected to enter a high-level wide fluctuation range [1][7]. - According to the latest Bank of America global fund manager survey, being long on gold has become the most crowded trade in the market, with gold ETF index fund options trading volume hitting a record high. The rapid decline in gold prices is attributed to the collapse of high leverage in gold ETFs [1][7]. - Historical analysis shows that new rounds of gold price increases typically start when volatility returns to levels seen before previous breakout phases. The report reviews several past gold price breakout events and emphasizes that a return to lower volatility is a prerequisite for the next price movement [1][14]. Group 2 - For allocation-type funds, the report identifies the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range as a fundamental bottom area for gold prices. A quantitative model predicts that the mid-point for gold prices in the second half of 2025 will be around $3,886 per ounce, suggesting this range as a good reference for the year [2][23]. - For trading-type funds, it is recommended to wait for volatility to decrease to pre-breakout levels before re-entering the market. The report notes that trading in high-volatility environments yields lower profit and loss outcomes, indicating that gold will not be a high-cost-performance trading asset until volatility declines [2][23]. - The report highlights that the current pricing of gold is driven by both leveraged funds and physical supply-demand dynamics, primarily influenced by European and North American capital. The increase in speculative net long positions in COMEX gold and the rising holdings in SPDR gold ETFs have contributed to the recent price highs [2][26][29]. Group 3 - In the medium to long term, the report remains optimistic about gold continuing to reach new highs, with a quantitative model projecting a mid-point of $4,814 per ounce for 2026. Factors supporting this outlook include rising global fiscal deficits and a continued trend of central banks purchasing gold [3][32]. - The report discusses the impact of fiscal and monetary policies, noting that geopolitical fluctuations are expected to sustain global fiscal deficits, which will benefit gold. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain a loose monetary policy, further supporting gold prices [3][32]. - The report emphasizes that the trend of central banks purchasing gold will continue, particularly in the context of concerns over the risks associated with long-term U.S. debt. This trend is crucial for maintaining the strategic value of gold in asset allocation [3][32].

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading below $48.31, with a decline of 1.61% from the opening price of $48.87 per ounce, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - The highest price reached was $48.99, while the lowest was $48.06, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] - The silver market is showing signs of a potential downward movement, with key resistance levels identified at $49.5 to $50, and support levels at $46 to $45 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. September CPI report is anticipated to show an overall CPI year-on-year increase to 3.1%, marking a 16-month high, with core CPI also expected to remain at 3.1% [3] - Concerns about inflation are rising due to the ongoing impact of tariff policies from the Trump administration, which are affecting price levels [3] - The upcoming CPI report is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, especially in light of potential inflationary pressures [3][4]

智通财经APP获悉，根据一项对经济学家的调查显示，欧洲央行预计在2027年年底前，将欧元区借贷利 率维持在2%的水平。 此项预测包含两重信息：一是下周货币政策会议将维持存款利率不变;二是不排除后续采取进一步行 动。具体来看，三分之一的受访者预计，在目前已实施八次降息的基础上，央行至少还会再降息一次; 另有17%的受访者认为，到明年年底前，央行可能会进行一次或多次加息。 12月的货币政策会议被视为关键节点，此次会议将首次纳入2028年的经济预测数据。 虽然，以行长拉加德为首的欧洲央行官员，近期似乎无意调整利率。他们表示，对当前消费者物价上涨 速度和欧洲经济的韧性感到满意，并认为当前的货币政策处于"理想状态"，能够灵活应对新出现的挑 战。 但潜在挑战仍不容忽视。欧洲正处于美中贸易紧张局势重启的夹缝中，此次争端聚焦于半导体和稀土领 域;同时，信用评级下调使法国的财政困境进一步复杂化，外界对德国大规模基建与国防投资计划的实 际效果也开始产生质疑。 与此同时，欧洲大陆新碳排放交易体系的潜在延迟，可能会在未来几年对通胀构成压力;而资产估值过 高的问题，也加剧了市场对潜在崩盘风险的担忧。 | | in 3 months | ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in setting interest rates due to a lack of available economic data, exacerbated by a government shutdown that halted the release of key statistics [1] - The loss of ADP's internal data, which covered about one-fifth of the private sector workforce, has left the Fed without a crucial real-time measure of employment conditions [1][2] - The absence of reliable data increases the risk of significant policy missteps, as the Fed may either over-tighten or under-tighten monetary policy [1][3] Group 1 - ADP had been providing anonymous payroll and income data to the Fed since at least 2018, which helped economists construct weekly employment trend indicators [2] - Following a public mention of this data by Fed Governor Waller, ADP abruptly suspended access, prompting concerns about the implications for monetary policy [2] - The potential reasons for ADP's decision include methodological issues with their data or internal pressures regarding the perception of their relationship with the Fed [3] Group 2 - The timing of the data loss is particularly problematic as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to decide on interest rate cuts amid a lack of official employment, unemployment, and wage data [4] - In the absence of real-time data, the Fed is relying on alternative sources such as state unemployment claims and regional bank surveys, which are deemed useful but incomplete [4] - There is a call for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to secure multi-year funding to maintain operations even during government shutdowns, highlighting the critical need for a robust statistical system [4]

23日国际金价上涨近2% 1 0月23日国际金价上涨近2%，国际油价大涨超5%。 3日国际金价上 当地时间周四，投资者等待即将公布的美国重要通胀数据，以此来判断美联储接下来的货 币政策走向。美国全国房地产经纪人协会当天公布的数据显示，由于美国抵押贷款利率降 至一年多来的最低水平，缓解了购房者对还款压力的担忧，美国9月成屋销量小幅上升， 显示出美国房地产市场出现了回暖迹象。 此外，科技股和芯片股在接连下跌后迎来反弹，推动美国三大股指集体上涨。截至收盘， 道指上涨0.31%，标普500指数上涨0.58%，纳指涨幅为0.89%。 中概股普遍走高，纳 斯达克中国金龙指数上涨约1.7% 。公司方面，周四盘后芯片公司英特尔公布的最新财报 好于分析师预期，公司股价盘后涨超7%。 贵金属市场方面，地缘政治风险加剧再度推升市场避险情绪，叠加金价在此前两个交易日 累计下跌约6.7%后，市场出现了技术性买盘，推动 国际金价周四反弹 。截至收盘，纽 约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司4145.6美元， 涨幅为1.97% 。 美欧宣布对俄实施新制裁 23日国际油价大涨超5% 原油期货方面，美国日前宣布对俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业实施制 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's central bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes due to low core inflation and uncertainties stemming from external factors like tariffs [1][3][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The current core inflation rate in Japan is reported at 2.7%, while the policy interest rate is only 0.5%, indicating a significant gap [4] - The former Bank of Japan governor, Shirakawa, emphasizes that the central bank's hesitance is largely due to potential negative reactions in the financial markets [3] - Concerns about accumulated risks in the financial system, which have persisted under a zero interest rate policy for the past 30 years, contribute to the cautious approach [3] Group 2: Economic Context - Shirakawa argues that Japan's prolonged economic stagnation is not solely due to deflation but is fundamentally linked to a declining population and the economy's adaptation to globalization and technological changes [4] - He suggests that Japan's GDP growth per capita has actually outpaced that of the United States, challenging the narrative that deflation is the primary issue [4] - The advice given to China is to focus on supply-side solutions rather than relying on monetary easing strategies [4]

【环球网财经综合报道】中国人民银行原行长周小川日前表示，AI对货币政策的影响还需更长时间的观察和研究，但 AI在央行决策中具有一定应用潜力，尤其是在金融稳定与风险防控领域。未来监管需要面对AI黑箱模型产生的结果和 行动，从而调节或监管金融市场。 金融监管总局副局长肖远企也表示，必须关注AI对整个金融结构变化的潜在影响；目前AI在金融领域的应用仍处于早 期阶段，其作用仍是辅助性的，无法取代人的决策。 新美国安全中心近期在一份报告中分析了AI对当前网络安全防御和攻击的影响，并预测了未来前沿AI能力如何塑造攻 防平衡。报告发现，历史上AI能力对防御者有利，使他们能够迅速扩大解决方案来对抗新威胁；然而，未来的前沿模 型可能打破这种平衡，因为越来越自主的系统可能会危险地倾向于攻击者。 另据全国人大常委会法制工作委员会发言人王翔日前介绍，网络安全法修正草案回应人工智能发展需要，拟增加关于 人工智能安全与发展的框架性规定，主要内容包括：支持人工智能基础理论研究和算法等关键技术研发，加强安全风 险监测评估，创新并加强人工智能安全监管等。 ...