Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of Shanghai emphasizes the effective implementation of monetary policy requirements and the enhancement of market interest rate pricing capabilities [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - Strict execution of interest rate policies and self-discipline requirements is highlighted to improve market interest rate pricing ability [1] - The use of optimized structural monetary policy tools, such as "Hu Ke Special Loan," "Hu Ke Special Discount," and "Cross-Border Refinance," is encouraged as part of Shanghai's unique financial instruments [1] Group 2: Risk Management - The promotion of a neutral exchange rate risk concept is reinforced, encouraging companies to utilize various hedging tools to mitigate exchange rate fluctuation risks [1]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《假期消费温和增长，文旅消费多元扩 容》 - 2026.01.05 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：降息或先行，缩表存约束 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周五，美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主 席。沃什曾于 2006-2011 年担任美联储理事，八年前曾接受特朗普总 统面试，与鲍威尔角逐美联储主席职位，但最终未能当选。任职美联 储理事期间，沃什整体立场偏鹰，并对美联储过度扩张资产负债表持 批评态度，但于近期转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。市 场将其政策倾向概括为"降息+缩表"。提名消息公布后，美元阶段性 走强，贵金属在多头获利了结下显著回落。 当前 FOMC 政策决议由 12 名成员投票形成。根据《联邦储备法》， FOMC 主席由委员会成员自行选举产生，理论上可以与美联储主席并非 同一人，尽管这一情形在历史上尚未出现。主席在决策机制中仅 ...

Group 1: U.S.-Iran Relations - U.S. President Trump expressed a desire to negotiate with Iran while simultaneously showcasing military strength by deploying the USS Ford aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, creating ambiguity about U.S. intentions [2][3] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that any agreement must include the lifting of U.S. sanctions and recognition of Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, indicating fundamental differences in demands between the two nations [3] - The U.S. is reportedly using third-party countries like Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar to facilitate potential negotiations with Iran, aiming to prevent direct military conflict [2][3] Group 2: OPEC's Decision - OPEC's core oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to maintain current oil production levels without increases, citing seasonal demand factors [4][7] - Analysts suggest that the decision to pause production increases is influenced by weak global economic recovery and the potential for military conflict in the Gulf, which could disrupt oil supply [7][8] - This strategy allows OPEC countries to remain flexible in response to market conditions, either to capitalize on price spikes due to supply fears or to manage oversupply if tensions ease [7][8] Group 3: Bitcoin Market Volatility - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, with over 420,000 investors liquidated, totaling $25.59 billion in losses [8][10] - The decline was triggered by market speculation regarding Trump's potential appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, which strengthened the U.S. dollar and reduced liquidity in the cryptocurrency market [10] - The lack of regulatory clarity in the U.S. regarding cryptocurrencies has deterred institutional investors, contributing to the market's instability [10] Group 4: Market Reactions - Oil prices initially rose following OPEC's decision to maintain production levels but later fell due to Trump's comments about potential negotiations with Iran, reflecting market uncertainty [11] - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant sell-offs as investors liquidated positions to cover losses in other markets, indicating a broader risk-off sentiment [11][14] - Financial institutions are tightening risk management measures, with exchanges raising margin requirements for futures contracts to reduce market leverage and risk exposure [12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 库存方面，截止2026-02-02，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存81.7万吨，较上一期变化3.5万吨，仓单库存150459 吨，较上一交易日变化5388吨，LME铝库存497175吨，较上一交易日变化1450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-02SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2635元/吨，广西价格录得2675元/吨，贵州价格录得2735元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得308美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2026-02-02氧化铝主力合约开于2767元/吨，收于2772元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-17 元/吨，变化幅度-0.61%，最高价达到2836元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交983744手，全天交易日 持仓375783手。 铝合金价格方面：2026-02-02保太民用生铝采购价格17100元/吨，机械生铝采购价格17500元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化-600元/吨。ADC12保太报价23300元/吨，价格环比昨日变化-600元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存6.73万吨，厂内库存7. ...

华安期货：2月3日市场巨震，风险放大 核心逻辑： 近期，市场获利了结及宏观面信息冲击带来金银价格巨幅波动。美国经济向好与通胀压力并存，美联储政策不确定性增加。美 国2025年12月和全年核心生产者价格指数（PPI）均高于经济学家此前预期，显示通胀逐渐融入整体经济。生产者价格上涨可能 迫使美联储维持"中性"货币政策利率的时间长于预期，利空金价。 中长期，全球增加官方黄金储备的趋势、公共债务高企带来的主权货币危机及工业领域的广阔应用前景等因素继续为黄金提供 支撑。 市场展望： 短期或继续高波动运行，建议降低杠杆，轻仓谨慎对待。 重要信息： 1、隔夜COMEX黄金期货跌1.35%报4680.90美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.93%报79.27美元/盎司。纽约尾盘，美元指数涨 0.51%报97.61，非美货币多数下跌。 2、美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数升至52.6，远高于预期的48.5，创2022年8月以来新高。 3、日本央行1月政策会议的会议纪要显示，在密切关注日元疲软对通胀的影响之际，决策层对及时加息必要性的认识正在增 强。 风险提示：市场巨震，风险放大，建议密切关注交易所风险提示及风控措施。近期交易所多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The delay of the U.S. non-farm payroll report due to the government shutdown has created a macroeconomic data vacuum, impacting market sentiment and decision-making, particularly for gold [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Gold Market - The absence of non-farm data means the market lacks authoritative numbers to calibrate expectations regarding U.S. economic resilience and labor market cooling [3]. - Gold, which typically thrives in periods of monetary policy uncertainty, is now seen as a "lifeline" for investors amid unclear market directions, especially after a significant price drop from $5,500 to $4,600 [1][2]. - The current price level of gold at $4,600 is transforming its role from merely a reflection of economic optimism to a hedge against systemic risks and government shutdowns [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The delayed data does not equate to its disappearance; once the government resumes operations, the release of pent-up data may lead to more volatile market reactions [5]. - Investors should be cautious of the mindset that gold prices will automatically rise with government shutdowns, as actual interest rate increases may exert long-term pressure on gold prices [6]. - During this period of data absence, price fluctuations are likely driven by emotions rather than logical foundations, increasing the probability of short-term reversals [6][8]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - In a year filled with potential "policy black swans," maintaining a disciplined trading rhythm is more crucial than making blind bets based on sporadic data releases [8]. - Both physical gold allocation and leveraged trading should be based on a profound understanding of future Federal Reserve policy rather than relying solely on the temporary absence of data [8]. - The current environment provides a chance for gold to stabilize around $4,600, but true investment opportunities arise from changing conditions rather than guaranteed returns [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised the cash rate from 3.6% to 3.85%, marking it as the first major central bank to increase rates this year due to persistent domestic inflation pressures [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The RBA's decision to increase the cash rate is a response to substantial inflationary pressures, with the committee noting that private demand is growing faster than expected [2]. - This increase effectively reverses one of the three rate cuts made last year, indicating a shift in monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that inflation is expected to remain above the target range of 2-3% for this year, with predictions that it will not reach the midpoint of this range until the end of 2027 [4]. - The Australian economy is nearing its capacity limits, with a historically low unemployment rate and a strong monthly growth in job advertisements since February 2022 [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Reactions - Despite the rate hike, Australian consumers are cautious, with real per capita spending remaining flat and a slight increase in the savings rate as households rebuild financial buffers [4]. - Following the RBA's announcement, the three-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.34%, and the Australian dollar experienced a sharp increase against the US dollar [2].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate from 3.6% to 3.85%, marking it as the first major central bank to increase rates this year due to persistent domestic inflation pressures [1] - The RBA's monetary policy committee unanimously decided to tighten policy, citing that private demand is growing faster than expected, with inflation pressures expected to rise significantly in the second half of 2025 [1] - Following the decision, the three-year Australian government bond yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.34%, and the Australian dollar strengthened [1] Group 2 - Australia's economy is nearing full capacity, with the unemployment rate at historical lows and inflation rising above the 2%-3% target range [4] - Recent data showed a strong monthly increase in job advertisements, the highest since February 2022, while consumer spending remained cautious with a slight increase in savings rates [4] - Economists believe the recent rate hike may be a one-off measure rather than the start of a broader tightening cycle, with expectations of a prolonged pause from the RBA [4] Group 3 - The RBA aims to maintain inflation at the midpoint of the 2%-3% target while ensuring maximum sustainable employment [7] - The trimmed mean inflation indicator rose by 3.4% year-on-year in Q4, exceeding market expectations, indicating significant price pressures in the Australian economy [7] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% in December, further highlighting the ongoing price pressures [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives has initiated a review of a bill aimed at ending the partial government shutdown that began on Saturday, with a final vote expected on Tuesday [2] - The shutdown has directly impacted the operations of federal statistical agencies, leading to the postponement of the January employment report originally scheduled for release on Friday [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced that all data collection, processing, and publication will be paused due to the shutdown, affecting not only the employment report but also the JOLTS data [2] Group 2 - If the bill passes smoothly on Tuesday, government funding is expected to be restored, allowing statistical agencies to resume data compilation [3] - However, if the vote encounters obstacles or legislative procedures are delayed, the absence of relevant data may extend further, increasing uncertainty in economic monitoring and decision-making [3] Group 3 - The current paper gold price is reported at 1070.01 CNY per gram, experiencing a significant drop of 93.98 CNY, or 8.07%, with a daily low of 1060.00 CNY per gram, marking a recent low [4] - International spot gold has fallen below 4400 USD per ounce, while COMEX gold has dropped to 4543 USD per ounce, driven by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off in global safe-haven assets [4] - Despite rapid withdrawal of institutional holdings, physical demand in the Shenzhen wholesale market has not shown significant decline, indicating a potential "policy bottom" and "demand bottom" dynamic in the short term [4]