Group 1 - Gold stocks have seen significant increases, with Tongguan Gold rising by 8.26% to HKD 2.36, Lingbao Gold up 7.35% to HKD 17.67, Shandong Gold increasing by 6.56% to HKD 38.02, Zhaojin Mining up 5.64% to HKD 29.6, and Chifeng Gold rising by 4.72% to HKD 30.62 [1] - On September 22, spot gold prices reached a historical high of USD 3,719 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 40% [1] - Long-term gold allocation remains valuable, driven by the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts amid economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns, alongside geopolitical risks and the trend of de-dollarization [1]

前言 7月美国财政部数据显示，外国投资者持有美债总额达9.16万亿美元，创下历史新高。 然而数据背后却是截然不同的选择：英国单月狂买413亿美元，中国却减持257亿美元，加拿大更是抛售571亿美元。 各国为何出现如此分化？这种趋势会持续多久？ 创纪录背后的真相：增长神话正在破灭 数字不会说谎。 而中国、加拿大、印度却是实打实的大规模减持。 这就好比一场聚会，表面上人数创新高，但仔细一看，有人在拼命往里挤，有人却在悄悄往外走。 换句话说，这份"创新高"的成绩单，更像是头部个别国家在撑场面。 而多数其他国家在悄然撤退，只是动作还不够明显。 从增量结构来看，官方机构和私营部门的操作也在分化。 私营部门忙着卖短期国债，转而观望，而官方机构则在选择性加仓长期债券。 这种背道而驰的操作，反映出投资者对未来美国利率走势和财政稳定性的分歧越来越大。 翻开美国财政部最新的TIC报告，9.16万亿美元这个数字确实刷新了外国投资者持有美债的历史纪录。 但仔细一看，这个"创纪录"背后，藏着一个让人意外的事实：增长速度其实在放缓。 7月份的总增量只有319亿美元，而6月份是802亿美元。 增长速度直接砍半。 更有意思的是，这个增长还掺 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：同小泰话基金） 国际金价再次逼近3700美元关口，港股黄金板块全线走强，背后是全球央行持续购金与地缘政治风险的 双重支撑。 今日板块行情 今日亚洲早盘时段，现货黄金价格小幅走高，上涨0.1%，报每盎司3687.84美元。市场在美联储降息后 弥漫观望情绪，等待更多关于利率路径的线索。 与此同时，港股黄金概念股表现强劲，黄金股的强劲表现吸引了市场目光，资金涌入黄金相关资产明 显。 黄金卷土重来？ 黄金市场在经过短暂盘整后再次展现强势。今年以来，金价已经上涨40%，市场密切关注在美联储启动 降息循环过程中，黄金是否仍能保持上涨动能。 美联储9月FOMC会议如期降息25个基点，点阵图显示年内还将降息50个基点，符合市场预期。降息落 地后，黄金可能面临"卖事实"的回调压力。 然而，全球央行购金热潮成为金价的重要支撑。自2022年中期以来，各央行的黄金购买量增加了两倍， 达到每季度约1千万盎司。 高盛在近期发布的报告中指出："我们证明了自2022年中期以来，央行推动了黄金需求的增长，而新的 地缘政治或金融冲击可能会大幅推高金价。" 后市展望 多家机构对黄金后市保持乐观态度。渣打银行分析认为，技术支 ...

更重要的是，地缘政治风险如乌克兰、波兰、加沙和加勒比地区的紧张局势，以及中美贸易争端的潜在升级，都在为黄金注入动能，降息加上这些"剑拔弩 张"的国际事件，将促使黄金和白银在短暂获利回吐后涌现。即便贸易问题得到部分解决，减少不确定性可能支撑美元并压低金价，但当前的不确定性风暴 ——包括中东和东欧战争——被视为"完美风暴"，让黄金逆历史趋势与股市并行上涨已有三年之久。Sean Lusk指出，金价从三年前就开始上涨，已远超过 往模式，如果不确定性持续，年底前可能飙至3960美元，甚至4000美元大关。 ---当日金银报价--- 现货黄金报3690附近美元/盎司； 基本面： 周一（9月22日）白银周四早盘高位震荡盘整小幅上涨，美联储降息如约而至，银价未能大涨反而走低，基本面美美债收益率回升与美元反弹：黄金面临的 短期压力与黄金走势密切相关的美国国债市场也呈现出复杂信号。上周，美债收益率大多走高，指标10年期国债收益率连续三天上涨，至4.141%，创两周 高点，周涨幅达8.1个基点。这逆转了此前因降息预期而下滑的趋势，上周初曾触及七个月低点3.994%。收益率回升源于强劲的经济数据，如初请失业金人 数和中大西洋制造业活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold market experienced high-level consolidation, with gold prices reaching a historical high of over $3700 per ounce, driven by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, but subsequently retreated due to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% and indicated a potential for further easing, but Chairman Powell's comments tempered market optimism by emphasizing a cautious approach to future rate adjustments [2][3]. - The dot plot revealed that among 19 officials, 9 expect two more rate cuts this year, while 6 do not anticipate further cuts, indicating a divided outlook on monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's actions, the dollar index rebounded, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by over $40 to a low of $3628 per ounce [3]. - The market remains optimistic about future gold price increases, with a 91% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and nearly 80% for December [4]. Group 3: Gold Demand and Investment Trends - Gold prices have risen nearly 40% since the beginning of the year, driven by concerns over unsustainable U.S. debt, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risks, making gold a core asset for investors [4]. - Gold ETF holdings have increased by 43% year-to-date, reaching a historical high in value, reflecting strong investor interest [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term resistance for gold prices is identified in the $3700-$3730 per ounce range, with potential upward targets of $3780-$3800 and a mid-term goal of $4000 per ounce [7]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures have broken through the 830-840 yuan per gram resistance level, with key resistance seen at 887-897 yuan per gram [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish with sideways bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish with sideways bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Sideways [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The iron ore market is supported by increased global shipments and rising demand, while the coal and coke market rebounds due to production cuts and positive expectations. The rebar market faces high supply and low demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The glass market is driven by fuel prices and macro sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction remains. The financial market is affected by Sino-US relations and economic data, with stock index futures showing mixed trends and treasury bonds trending weakly [2][4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver prices expected to remain high and volatile. The forest products market shows different trends, with logs expected to range-bound, pulp to bottom consolidate, and offset paper to be bearish. The oil and fat market is affected by production, inventory, and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate widely. The agricultural products market shows mixed trends, with live pigs expected to be bullish with sideways bias and soybeans and related products to be bearish with sideways bias. The soft commodities market shows different trends, with rubber expected to be sideways and polyester products to show mixed trends [4][6][7][9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.731 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising to 29.778 million tons. Demand rebounded as daily pig iron production remained high, and steel mills had pre-holiday restocking expectations. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high, showing a strong trend [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Production cuts at coal mines and increased "anti-involution" expectations drove the double-coke futures to rebound. Supply is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand increased as daily pig iron production remained high. The market is expected to be bullish with sideways bias [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remained high while demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased. The market is expected to be sideways, with the rebar 2601 contract likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Non-ferrous Metals - Glass: The glass futures were driven by rising fuel prices and improved macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction remained, but inventory reduction provided some confidence. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and the decline in housing completion area is significant. Attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The market showed mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 Index Futures trending downward. Sino-US relations and economic data affected the market, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased, and the market trended weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bond futures lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. The current upward trend logic remains, and prices are expected to remain high and volatile [4]. Forest Products - Logs: Port shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Inventory increased to around 3 million cubic meters. Spot prices were stable, and the market is expected to range-bound [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were stable, and cost support increased. However, the paper industry's profitability was low, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to bottom consolidate [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and demand was weak. The industry has overcapacity, and the market is expected to be bearish [6]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production increased in August, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil inventory was high, but future imports are expected to decrease seasonally. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: US soybean production increased, and domestic supply was abundant. Demand was weak, and prices are expected to be bearish with sideways bias [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight increased, and slaughterhouse开工率 increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may face some pressure [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Demand improved as tire factory capacity utilization increased. Inventory continued to decline, and prices are expected to be sideways [9]. - Polyester products: PX prices followed oil prices, and PTA supply and demand both increased. MEG supply pressure increased, and PR and PF prices are expected to fluctuate [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is expected to maintain a strong performance due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1] - The current geopolitical situation and economic policy uncertainties are likely to support the upward trend in gold prices [1] - The decline of the US dollar index by nearly 10% since the beginning of the year, coupled with weak US economic growth, may continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar, further supporting gold [1] Group 2 - The global liquidity easing environment and geopolitical uncertainties are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Long-term perspectives indicate that a weakening US economy and the ongoing "de-dollarization" of the global monetary system will continue to support gold prices [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs, specifically the gold fund ETF (518800) and gold stock ETF (517400), and to look for buying opportunities during short-term price adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The U.S.-led global payment system is evolving into an "invisible financial weapon," forcing countries to choose sides in a new economic confrontation [3][5] - The rapid disconnection of Visa and MasterCard from Russia during the Ukraine conflict highlighted the potential for the U.S. to use financial infrastructure as a geopolitical tool [5][6] - Countries are increasingly aware of the risks associated with reliance on U.S. payment platforms, prompting a search for alternative payment solutions [8][9] Group 2 - Europe is leading the charge to develop an independent pan-European payment standard to ensure regional trade is not subject to external interference [8][9] - Asian countries are innovating in financial technology, utilizing blockchain and digital currencies to create efficient cross-border payment solutions, such as India's UPI international version [8][9] - A global restructuring of payment sovereignty is underway, with nations striving to build a more diverse and balanced international payment ecosystem [9] Group 3 - The F-35 fighter jet exemplifies the risks of dependency on U.S. technology, as its operational control remains largely with American companies, raising concerns about potential supply chain disruptions [10] - Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve has undermined the perceived independence of the U.S. central bank, leading to a global shift towards "de-dollarization" as countries seek to enhance their financial autonomy [11][14] - In response to U.S. control in financial, military, and monetary policies, countries are actively working to diminish U.S. dominance through technological innovation and cooperation [14]

2025年09月22日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：贵金属价格反弹，美国再次面临政府关门窘境。 基本面：中美元首通电话，特朗普称，通话"非常富有成效"，将与中国领导人在 APEC 会议期间会晤；特朗 普签署公告，H-1B 签证申请收费提高至 10 万美元；出创收新招金卡签证；美参议院否决两党各自短期支出 议案，美国政府面临。国内黄金 ETF 资金继续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1227 吨，增加 6 吨；上期所黄金库 存 57 吨，增加 0.9 吨；伦敦 8 月黄金库存 8830 吨；上期所白银库存 1159 吨，减少 44 吨，金交所白银库存 上周库存 1252 吨，增加 4 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16298 吨，减少 1 吨；伦敦 8 月白银库存增加 447 吨至 24643 吨；印度 7 月白银进口约 340 吨左右；全球最大黄金 ETF-SPDR 持有量 994 吨，维持不变；白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15205 吨，维持不变。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，美联储如期降息，但展望存在矛盾，价格处于历史高位，短期存在高位震荡， 中期依旧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a bullish trend driven by global demand, geopolitical risks, and central bank strategies, with potential for prices to rise significantly by year-end [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading around $3,690 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.13% [1]. - In India, gold premiums have reached a 10-month high, indicating strong demand despite record prices [2]. - In contrast, China's gold prices are at a five-year discount, highlighting a divergence in market demand [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions in regions such as Ukraine, Poland, and the Middle East are providing strong support for the gold market [3]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions may further escalate, adding to market uncertainty and driving gold prices higher [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves as part of a de-dollarization strategy, contributing to a 43% surge in ETF holdings [2]. - This trend is expected to continue, reinforcing the bullish outlook for gold prices [2]. Group 4: Price Trends and Projections - Recent market movements show a reversal pattern, with gold prices recovering after a dip influenced by interest rate announcements [4]. - The price has risen approximately 200 points since breaking the $3,500 level, with a key resistance level around $3,705 [4]. - If uncertainties persist, gold prices could potentially reach $3,960 or even surpass $4,000 by year-end [3].