Core Viewpoint - Domestic demand is a fundamental driving force for China's economic development, and expanding domestic demand is essential to meet the growing needs of the people for a better life [1][2] Group 1: Improvement of Consumption Environment - The consumption environment in China has been continuously improving, with enhanced consumer experience and better infrastructure such as modern logistics and online payment systems [1][2] - Various measures have been implemented to protect consumer rights, including the introduction of the Consumer Rights Protection Law and the establishment of online dispute resolution mechanisms [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact - In the first quarter of this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with per capita consumer spending rising by 5.2% [2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth, reinforcing its foundational role in economic development [2] Group 3: Policy Initiatives - The State Administration for Market Regulation and other departments have jointly issued a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to optimize the consumption environment, emphasizing the construction of a trustworthy, fair, convenient, and safe consumption environment [2] - A series of policy documents and measures have been introduced to improve quality standards, consumer rights protection, and address prominent issues raised by the public [2] Group 4: Collaborative Governance - Promoting a collaborative governance model involving businesses, social organizations, media, and consumers is essential for building a shared and well-managed consumption environment [5] - Strengthening industry self-regulation and enhancing the capabilities of consumer associations are crucial for improving consumer rights protection services [5]

6月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，6 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5% 和50.7%，比5月份上升0.2个百分点、0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升，我国经济景气 水平总体保持扩张。 与此同时，价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比5月上 升1.5个百分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。 "从两个价格指数的变化趋势来看，近期制造业上游原料端和下游产品端的价格走势协同性较好。5月 份、6月份，购进价格指数和出厂价格指数同向变化，变化幅度相当。"文韬说。 分行业看，三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9% 和50.4%，均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关 行业产需两端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比5月份上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 文韬表示，下半年我国经济将重点推进"强内"和"稳外"工作。"强内"是继 ...

文｜经济学家、新质未来研究院院长 张奥平 6月30日，国家统计局发布了2025年6月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数、综合PMI产出指 数。其中，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间。非制造 业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.3个百分 点，均高于临界点。 6月PMI录得数据为49.7%，虽较上月有所上升，但已连续3个月处于收缩区间，显示经济回升向好基础 尚不稳固。 截至2025年5月底，民营企业数量已突破5800万户，其中中小企业占比超过95%。因民营企业创造了 80%以上的城镇就业，中小企业经营压力大则会直接影响就业。6月从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降 0.2个百分点，低于临界点。 因当前经济主要矛盾仍为需求不足，且外需或将大幅放缓，笔者建议，各地区各部门应将扩大内需作为 下阶段首要工作任务。 财政政策方面，加快今年已安排的4.4万亿元地方政府专项债券、1.3万亿元超长期特别国债发行使用， 加力扩围落实"两重"建设与"两新"工作，为后续增量财政政策加码留出空间。货币政策方面，加快落实 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The report indicates that China's GDP growth is expected to maintain around 5% in 2025, with a focus on stabilizing the economy amidst external uncertainties [6][7] - Policies are being implemented to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, with a push for supply-side structural reforms to promote reasonable price recovery [6][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw an increase in economic growth, with indicators showing improvement, while the second quarter may see a slight decline due to external pressures [6][7] Group 2: Solar Energy Industry Insights - In May 2025, China's newly installed solar capacity reached 92.9 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 388% and a month-on-month increase of 105.5% [8][12] - The report highlights that the export value of solar components in May was 17.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% but a month-on-month increase of 7.2% [12] - The solar power generation in May 2025 increased by 7.3% year-on-year, contributing to 6.38% of the total industrial power generation in China [12][10] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Sanhua Intelligent Control - Sanhua Intelligent Control is projected to achieve revenue between 15.04 billion and 17.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% to 30% [13][15] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in the home appliance sector, particularly in air conditioning, with retail sales showing strong growth [13][14] - Sanhua's successful IPO raised a net amount of 9.177 billion HKD, which will be used for global capacity expansion and to seize new business opportunities [17]

Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand is essential for promoting high-quality economic development, with leisure consumption being a key component of this strategy [1][2] - The Chinese government has prioritized the recovery and expansion of leisure consumption through various measures, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2] Leisure Consumption Market Recovery - Leisure consumption, particularly in tourism and sports, has shown a continuous recovery and growth trend, becoming an indispensable force in driving domestic demand [2] - Domestic tourism in China is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips and a total consumption scale of 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery compared to 2022 [2] - The average spending per trip has increased to 1,024.04 yuan, with a notable rise in both the number of trips and total consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels [2] Impact on Related Industries - The recovery and expansion of leisure consumption positively impact various related industries, including transportation, accommodation, dining, shopping, and entertainment [3] - Leisure consumption has transitioned from being viewed as a luxury to becoming a necessity in the consumption structure of Chinese residents, making it a crucial part of the domestic demand strategy [3] Constraints on Leisure Consumption - Despite the positive recovery, several factors hinder the further expansion and quality improvement of leisure consumption, including weak consumer confidence and income growth [4][5] - The average annual increase in urban employment from 2022 to 2023 was only 1.3 million, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, affecting consumer spending [4] - The decline in asset values since 2021 has led to a "negative wealth effect," further suppressing consumer spending [4] Supply-Side Challenges - The leisure consumption market faces structural supply-side issues, including insufficient high-quality offerings and low levels of innovation [5][6] - There is a significant gap between consumer demands for personalized and high-quality experiences and the current market supply, which often consists of generic products [5][6] Consumer Experience and Trust Issues - The leisure consumption environment is marred by market irregularities, such as price gouging and misleading promotions, which undermine consumer trust [7] - Poor infrastructure and service quality in popular tourist destinations further detract from the overall consumer experience [7] Recommendations for Enhancing Leisure Consumption - Strategies to enhance consumer capacity and expectations include improving employment levels and income distribution through tax policies and social security systems [8] - Encouraging innovation in leisure products and services to meet diverse consumer needs is essential for market growth [9] - Optimizing the consumer environment by addressing market order and enhancing infrastructure will help build consumer trust [11] - Implementing flexible vacation arrangements can increase leisure time for residents, thereby boosting leisure consumption [12]

本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, and small enterprises have a PMI of 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points, all below the critical point [5] - Among the five sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index are below the critical point [6] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The production index is at 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities in manufacturing [7] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting an improvement in market demand for manufacturing [8] - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating a continued narrowing of the decline in major raw material inventories [9] - The employment index is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment sentiment within manufacturing [10] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times from raw material suppliers compared to the previous month [11] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [14] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, while the service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points [17] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in market demand [21] - The input prices index is at 49.9%, up 1.7 percentage points, suggesting stable input prices for non-manufacturing activities [21] - The sales prices index is at 48.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices [21] - The employment index is at 45.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued weakness in employment sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector [21] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index for June is 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across enterprises [27]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.34% and 0.47% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 15,409.36 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while banking, public utilities, and food and beverage sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as copper cable high-speed connections, metal zinc, and newly listed technology stocks saw significant increases, whereas cross-border payments, combustible ice, and digital currencies experienced declines [1][7] Market News - During the 2025 Listed Companies Forum held in Wenzhou on June 28-29, leaders from the four major exchanges (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong) emphasized multi-dimensional reform signals. The Shanghai Stock Exchange's deputy general manager stated that they will solidly promote the "1+6" reform measures and demonstration cases [2][8] - The Hong Kong market will adjust its stock transaction fees starting June 30, increasing from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, while removing the minimum fee of 2 HKD and the maximum fee of 100 HKD. This adjustment is expected to lower transaction costs for small trades and help institutional investors better control costs during large-scale transactions [3][9] Investment Highlights - As of June 25, the A-share market indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,455.97 points, reflecting a 3.24% increase from the end of May. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices showed significant gains [10] - Market liquidity has improved, with an increase in the scale of locked-up shares released in June compared to the previous month. The establishment of new equity funds and increased share buybacks by major shareholders contributed to a continued rise in trading volume [10] - Investor confidence has rebounded, with trading activity increasing following the easing of US-China trade tensions. However, geopolitical conflicts and domestic economic data have caused some adjustments in the market [10][12] - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing internal economic momentum, with the People's Bank of China and other departments issuing guidelines to support consumption growth through financial services [13][12] - The recent announcements from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding capital market reforms and support for technology enterprises are expected to boost investor confidence and improve long-term liquidity in the A-share market [13][12]

自5月20日起，"十五五"规划编制工作开展网络征求意见活动。今年"十五五"规划相关工作节点比以往 开始得还要早，充分显示出党中央对五年规划的重视。 当前制定"十五五"规划的内外部大环境相较于"十四五"期间发生了明显变化。 从国内环境看，相比于"十四五"规划，党的二十大报告根据形势的变化和认识的深化，在2035年远景目 标的阐述上作出一定调整，进一步明确了基本实现现代化的方向指引，这也将为"十五五"规划的编制锚 定目标方向。此外，当下国内经济面临的稳增长压力比五年前更复杂，一些中长期的困难和挑战已经浮 现，比如人口问题、外部的输入性风险等。 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》(以下简称《决定》)共提出300多项 重要改革举措，目前正在陆续出台实施，"十五五"规划也会将与之相关的改革举措纳入其中。特别是 《决定》对"完善市场经济基础制度"作出的部署安排非常重要，涵盖产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、 社会信用体系等四个基础性制度。这关乎我国市场经济的竞争力和社会信心，近期有关的法律规定已陆 续出台，"十五五"期间各地各有关部门要将这些基础性制度真正贯彻落实，才能为经济发展带来积极效 应。从下一 ...

Economic Growth and Trends - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4%, maintaining the same level as Q4 2024, driven primarily by consumption and exports[12] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.8%, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter[13] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was 4.6%, with a GDP deflator index growth rate of -0.8%, indicating weak domestic demand[13] Policy Measures - The government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies, with a focus on increasing the scale of deficits, special bonds, and treasury bonds[29] - In Q1 2025, general public budget expenditure and government fund expenditure grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with general public budget expenditure increasing by 4.2%[29] - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate announced on May 7, 2025[39] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, with service retail outperforming goods retail, indicating a shift towards service consumption[46] - Infrastructure investment in Q1 2025 grew by 11.5% year-on-year, supported by the accelerated issuance of special bonds[53] - Manufacturing investment growth in Q1 2025 was 9.1%, with significant increases in equipment purchases and high-tech industry investments[64] Export and External Environment - Short-term resilience in exports is noted, but uncertainties remain due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and global economic slowdown[2] - The net export contribution to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.1%, reflecting a strong performance despite external challenges[13] Price Stability - Consumer prices (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) remain low, with the government aiming for a moderate recovery in prices as a key policy goal[6] - The overall price level is expected to stabilize, but the relationship between supply and demand needs further improvement to support price recovery[6]