Core Viewpoint - The retail sector in A-shares has been underperforming for several years, but recent policy support and market enthusiasm may signal a potential turnaround for the industry [2][6][8]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Policy Support - The retail sector has seen a collective uptick recently, driven by a series of favorable policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [6][8]. - The Central Economic Work Conference prioritized "domestic demand" as a key task, emphasizing the need to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [9][10]. - The Ministry of Commerce has redefined the retail sector's role as a crucial component in building a complete domestic demand system [11][12]. - Upcoming policies are expected to stimulate consumption, particularly in service-oriented sectors [10][13]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - From January to September 2025, the value added by wholesale and retail industries grew by 5.6%, maintaining a stable GDP contribution of 10.3% [15]. - Retail sales increased by 4.6%, with physical retail formats like convenience stores and supermarkets showing growth [16][17]. - The approaching Spring Festival is anticipated to further boost offline retail activities, contributing to a positive market sentiment [18]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Valuation - Consumer stocks have shown signs of recovery, with valuations at historically low levels; for instance, the food and beverage sector's latest P/E ratio is 20.36, at a percentile of 7.05% [19][20]. - The prolonged period of low valuations has created a technical rebound demand in the retail sector [21][22]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Transformations - The retail industry has faced unprecedented challenges, particularly from e-commerce, which has permanently shifted consumer behavior towards online shopping [24][25][28]. - Traditional retailers are experiencing rising operational costs, which are squeezing profit margins [29]. - Performance disparities among retail companies are evident, with some struggling to adapt while others, like Bubu Gao, have seen significant revenue growth due to successful transformations [32][36]. Group 5: New Business Models and Innovations - The retail landscape is evolving, with a shift from mere product sales to enhancing customer experiences [38][39]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on operational efficiency and cost control, with strategies like closing underperforming stores and optimizing organizational structures [42][43]. - New retail formats, such as discount stores and instant retail, are emerging, intensifying competition within the sector [45][46]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The retail sector is at a crossroads, with the potential for recovery tempered by ongoing challenges from e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [58][62]. - While leading companies may benefit from valuation rebounds, those unable to adapt may face continued difficulties [63].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced mixed fluctuations, with the ChiNext index falling over 2%. Sectors such as AI healthcare, commercial aerospace, retail, and IP economy saw significant gains, while battery, lithium mining, Hainan, and PCB sectors faced notable declines [1][4]. - As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.17% [4][5]. Sector Performance - AI healthcare concepts surged, with companies like Huaren Health and Sairui Medical hitting the daily limit [5]. - The commercial aerospace sector saw a strong performance, with stocks like Shengyang Technology and Tianjian Technology also reaching the daily limit [11]. - Retail and IP economy stocks rallied, with Baida Group achieving six consecutive trading limit ups [5]. - Conversely, computing hardware stocks declined, with companies like Shengyi Technology and Jingwang Electronics dropping over 5% [5]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Financial Office emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be a top priority for next year, focusing on structural changes in consumption to stimulate demand from both supply and demand sides [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with five other departments, issued guidelines for the clean and efficient utilization of coal, tightening standards compared to the 2022 version, which may increase demand for high-quality coal [2]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index close up by 0.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.73%. The aviation and resource sectors led the gains, while technology manufacturing and consumer sectors generally adjusted downwards [7][8]. Commodity Market - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher, with palladium hitting the daily limit and coking coal rising by 6.07%. However, the shipping index (European line) fell by 3.06%, and polysilicon dropped by 2.60% [2][10]. Bond Market - The bond futures market saw an increase across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.52%, the 10-year contract by 0.07%, and shorter-term contracts also showing gains [3][10]. AI Healthcare Development - Ant Group launched the AI health assistant application "Ant Ai Fu," which has rapidly gained popularity, exceeding 15 million monthly active users. This reflects the significant market potential of integrating generative AI with health management [16]. - The increase in flu activity since November has boosted demand for related medications, further supporting the AI healthcare sector [15][16]. Commercial Aerospace Support - The Shanghai Municipal Government is focusing on commercial aerospace as a key area in its upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," with plans to establish development funds to support this emerging strategic industry [11][13].

21世纪经济报道记者 陈思琦 深圳报道 具体来看，深圳规上工业总产值、工业增加值从2022年开始保持全国城市"双第一"；"十四五"期间，深 圳固定资产投资总额可达4.5万亿元、约为"十三五"的1.5倍；社会消费品零售总额从2020年的8664亿元 增加到2024年的1.06万亿元；外贸进出口总额从2020年的3.05万亿元增加到2024年的4.5万亿元，跃居全 国城市首位；来源于深圳辖区的一般公共预算收入预计连续五年保持在万亿元以上。 从经济结构看，"十四五"前四年，深圳战略性新兴产业增加值年均增长10%以上、占GDP比重提高到 42.3%。 具体来看，深圳建成投产11个百亿级大型工业项目，先进制造业和高技术制造业增加值占规上工业比重 分别达68.2%、58.2%；集成电路、工业机器人、智能手机等39种工业产品产量占全国比重超10%；现代 服务业增加值占服务业比重提高至76.5%；国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业数量达1333家、跃居全国城市 首位；境内外上市企业592家、瞪羚企业215家、独角兽企业42家，均位居全国前列。 "十四五"期间，深圳科技创新亦取得重大突破，创造多个"首位"。总体来看，深圳全社会研发投 ...

Economic Growth - Shenzhen's GDP increased from 2.78 trillion yuan in 2020 to 3.68 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, leading among first-tier cities [1][2] - Fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan, approximately 1.5 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose from 866.4 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.06 trillion yuan in 2024 [2] - Foreign trade import and export volume increased from 3.05 trillion yuan in 2020 to 4.5 trillion yuan in 2024, ranking first among cities in the country [2] Industrial and Technological Development - Shenzhen maintained the top position in national cities for industrial output and added value since 2022 [2] - The added value of strategic emerging industries grew by over 10% annually, accounting for 42.3% of GDP [2] - R&D investment increased from 151.08 billion yuan in 2020 to 245.31 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 12.9% [3] - Shenzhen ranked first in the number of national specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, totaling 1,333 [3] Infrastructure and Urban Quality - Significant improvements in urban quality, particularly in transportation, with major projects like the Ganshen High-speed Railway and the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link [5] - The airport passenger throughput is expected to exceed 65 million this year, and metro operation mileage surpassed 600 kilometers [5] - Social welfare expenditures reached 1.6 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of fiscal spending [5] Future Development Strategies - Shenzhen aims to expand domestic demand comprehensively and enhance effective investment [7] - The city plans to cultivate new productive forces and become a hub for innovation and advanced manufacturing [8] - Emphasis on deepening reform and opening up, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [8] - Focus on high-quality urban development and improving public services to ensure equitable benefits for citizens [8]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,780.00 | +22.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,592.00 | +46.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 573,238.00 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a milestone in 2025, with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4,000 points, marking a significant recovery and growth trajectory for 2026 [2] Market Performance and Drivers - The A-share market experienced a notable rally in the past year, driven by a policy shift and improved liquidity, with the rally beginning from the "924" policy change in 2024 [4][7] - The entry of state-owned funds at market lows significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a noticeable inflow of incremental funds into the market [4][7] Market Structure and Future Outlook - In 2026, there is a cautious optimism regarding the overall market, with a potential shift in market style and a focus on sectors related to domestic demand, real estate, and cyclical industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [6][10] - The cyclical and value-related stocks, which lagged in 2025, may see a balanced rise in 2026, contingent on macroeconomic recovery and industry fundamentals [5][9] Key Investment Themes - The real estate sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, as it is expected to stabilize and influence consumer behavior significantly [13] - Domestic consumption stocks, which underperformed in 2025, are also seen as having potential for recovery in 2026, despite current fundamental challenges [14] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create opportunities in cyclical industries, with signs of improvement already emerging in Q4 of 2025 [15][18] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation methods for cyclical and technology growth assets differ significantly, with traditional assets relying more on current value assessments, while tech assets are evaluated based on future potential [19][20] - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective and understand the underlying logic of their investments, emphasizing the importance of value investing [26]

【编者按】2025年，A股市场迎来里程碑式发展：总市值站上100万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。站在"十五五"规划的开局之年， 2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 12月17日，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、基金经理王乾做客搜狐财经直播间，对2025年A股市场进行复盘，并展望了2026年的投资机遇与挑战。 过去一年，A股在政策转向与流动性改善的双重驱动下，走出了一轮显著的行情。王乾回顾称，此轮行情的起点可追溯至2024年"924"政策的转向，而2025 年的走势是去年四季度以来行情的延续。 政策效应最直接的体现是市场流动性的极大改善。 "早期国家队的入市，在市场比较底部的时候，给市场注入了非常多的信心。"王乾表示。后续随着行情 演绎，居民存款向非银机构转移等带来的增量资金入市迹象明显。 进入2026年，市场风格是否会发生变化？王乾认为，风格再平衡是2026年值得关注、研究和布局的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianyima (301178.SZ) is leveraging its self-developed digital technology platform to actively support the implementation of the national "expand domestic demand" strategy in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation Initiatives - In May 2024, Tianyima was selected as one of the first digital traction units and is the only industry chain traction enterprise in the textile and apparel sector, fully advancing digital transformation efforts [1] - The company has provided in-depth digital solutions for multiple textile, apparel, and fashion trade enterprises, focusing on intelligent production systems that enable real-time monitoring of all processes and flexible production scheduling [1] - Additionally, Tianyima offers smart warehousing and supply chain management platforms to accurately control production progress, assisting enterprises in achieving comprehensive digital transformation across the entire supply chain [1] Group 2: Future Focus and Industry Impact - Recently, the company was successfully included in the second batch of digital traction units, with a focus on the digital transformation of the health and modern food industries, enhancing operational efficiency and aligning closely with market demands [1] - Tianyima aims to strengthen the digital capabilities of products in circulation and consumption, effectively responding to the "expand domestic demand" policy orientation [1] - The company plans to continue deepening its digital empowerment in the consumer goods manufacturing and distribution sectors, promoting the "integration of digital and real" in more traditional industries, contributing to the establishment of a high-quality domestic demand system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "National Subsidy" policy on consumer behavior and the economy, highlighting a significant increase in consumer spending on home appliances and digital products due to enhanced subsidies [2][5]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - In the first 11 months of the year, over 128 million home appliances were replaced under the "National Subsidy" program, with digital products receiving subsidies for over 9.015 million items [2]. - Consumers are taking advantage of the subsidies, as evidenced by a Beijing resident who purchased 10 appliances for 41,000 yuan, significantly more than the original budget of 20,000 yuan [2]. - Social media feedback indicates that consumers are enjoying the benefits of these subsidies, feeling a sense of improved quality of life [3]. Group 2: Policy Effectiveness - The "National Subsidy" program has increased subsidy amounts by 50% compared to previous years, with some categories seeing subsidy limits doubled [2]. - The policy is designed to activate current consumer demand rather than deplete future resources, effectively addressing the timing of product replacements [5]. - The subsidy percentage is strategically set between 15% and 20% to stimulate interest without causing dependency or excessive consumption [5]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Impact - The subsidies create a beneficial cycle by linking consumer benefits with industrial upgrades, such as promoting digital transformation in the home appliance sector and supporting the green transition in the automotive industry [6]. - The policy aims to enhance both consumer spending and industrial growth, aligning with the central economic work meeting's focus on improving livelihoods and stimulating consumption [7].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on December 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.17% to 3107.06 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.66 trillion, with nearly 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a broad increase, with Shanghai Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 3% [1] Retail Sector - Retail concepts showed strength, with Central Plaza and Shanghai Jiubai hitting the daily limit [1] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with multiple stocks including Shengyang Technology and Shunhao Co. hitting the daily limit [1][2] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector continued to perform well, with stocks like Luyan Pharmaceutical and Zhongyao Holdings hitting the daily limit [1][3] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector, including retail, apparel, and food and beverage, led the gains, with stocks like Baida Group achieving six consecutive limits [1][4] Institutional Insights Economic Policy Outlook - Everbright Securities anticipates a favorable cross-year market for A-shares, supported by ongoing domestic economic policies and historical performance trends [5] - Huaxi Securities suggests focusing on the consumer sector as technology rotation slows down, with an emphasis on the high-low cut logic [6] - Bank of China Securities views A-shares as being in a "bull market continuation" phase, highlighting the importance of technology and anti-involution themes for future investment [7]