【冠通研究】 高价成交不畅，反弹受阻 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1773 元/吨低开高走，最终收于 1780 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.22%，持仓量 249205 手（-12128 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头-827 手，空头-9959 手。其中，永安期货净多单增加 1811 手、 东证期货净多单增加 2613 手；一德期货净空单增加 1904 手，中信期货净空单减 少 3794 手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 2025 年 6 月 19 日，尿素仓单数量 3881 张，环比上个交易日-484 张，其中 中原大化-23 张，安阳万庄-396 张，辽宁化肥-65 张。 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，盘面反弹受阻，下游掀起高价抵触情绪，上游工 厂待发订单充足，目前存挺价心理。市场受国际尿素刺激后的反弹接近尾声， 盘面预计回归基本面交易逻辑，近期部分装置有检修计划，山东瑞星及陕西陕 化都有减产。需求端华北东北地区农需正在进行中，但数量不足以支撑尿素行 情大幅 ...

2025年06月19日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：美联储议息会议上鲍威尔发言偏鹰派，点阵图提示年内两次降 | | | | 息但支持降息人数减少。美元在议息会议后略有走强。伊朗以色列冲突延续。供应端，铜矿紧张格局依旧， | | | 铜 | 122 160 日本冶炼厂考虑减产。伦敦结构 美金 back，现货铜可得性偏低。华东华南平水铜现货升水 元和 | 150 | | | 元，精废价差 1400 元。交易策略：维持逢低买入思路。风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.08%，收于 20680 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 665 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2544 美元/吨。 | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：电解铝市场维持"低库存+弱需求"的博弈状态，虽然传统淡季压制需求，但外盘现货价格上行， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is influenced by the US soybean oil, showing a strong trend, but pressure from South America remains. The domestic soybean meal demand is good, and inventory accumulation is expected. For sugar, the global supply increase expectation drags down the raw sugar price, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. The short - term trend of oils and fats is affected by geopolitical conflicts and may run strong, but there is a risk of high - level correction. The corn market has a tight domestic supply, and the futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The pig market still faces pressure due to relatively high inventory. The peanut market may decline due to the expected increase in planting area. The egg market may have a weak spot price in the short - term, and the far - month contracts may rise under certain conditions. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger and stable futures price in June. The cotton market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term [3][11][19][27][31][35][44][48][56] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.26% to 1074 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.44% to 294.3 US dollars/short ton [2] - **Related Information**: As of June 15, EU 2024/25 soybean imports reached 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. As of June 12, US soybean export inspections were only 216,000 tons. From June 9 - 13, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso was 515.08 reais/ton. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory was 5.996 million tons, down 1.75% from last week and up 8.59% year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, up 7.19% from last week and down 58.79% year - on - year [2] - **Logic Analysis**: The US soybean market is strong, but South American pressure remains. Domestic demand for soybean meal is good, and inventory accumulation is expected [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, wait and buy at low points; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.49 (2.89%) to 16.45 cents/lb [7] - **Important Information**: In the next 30 days, most sugarcane areas in Guangxi will have more precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Brazilian hydrous ethanol prices are at an 8 - month low, and the average national alcohol - to - gasoline ratio is 67.7%. In May, Brazilian ethanol sales reached 2.99 billion liters. In the second half of May, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 47.843 million tons of sugarcane, up 5.47% year - on - year; sugar production was 2.951 million tons, up 8.86% year - on - year; ethanol production was down 3.12%. From April 2025 to June 1, the central - southern region cumulatively crushed 124.768 million tons of sugarcane, down 11.85% year - on - year; sugar production was 6.954 million tons, down 11.64% year - on - year; ethanol production was 5.74 billion liters, down 11.36% year - on - year. In the first two weeks of June, Brazil exported 1.53 million tons of sugar and molasses, down 12.8% year - on - year [8][9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: The raw sugar price is dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Passively follow the raw sugar price, expect short - term weakness, and sell high. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14] Oils and Fats - **External Market**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.89% to 54.69 cents/lb; the BMD palm oil main price rose 0.74% to 4096 ringgit/ton [16] - **Related Information**: Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in June to reach 14.37 million tons. French 2025 winter rapeseed production is expected to reach 4.2 million tons, up 9.4% year - on - year. As of June 15, EU 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.74 million tons, down from 3.36 million tons last year; soybean imports were 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 17,560 tons, down 55% from the previous trading day [17][18] - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the market. India's reduction of the crude palm oil tax may increase purchases. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the supply of rapeseed oil is in excess, but the bottom support is strong [19] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of high - level corrections. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: The CBOT corn futures main contract rose 0.5% to 438.5 cents/bu [24] - **Important Information**: On the 17th, DDGS prices rose slightly. The wheat market price is rising, and the corn price is also rising, increasing the wheat's feed substitution advantage. As of June 12, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.135 million tons, up 119,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, unchanged from last week; the imported sorghum was 433,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 333,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from last week. On June 16, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the corn price in the North China production area continued to rise [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn sowing is accelerating, and the domestic supply is tight. The 07 corn futures fluctuate at a high level, and the basis narrows. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures will fluctuate at a high level [27] - **Trading Strategy**: For the external market, the 07 corn fluctuates at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 corn. For arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread, buy 09 starch and short 09 corn when the spread is low. Hold long corn and short 07 or 09 corn. For options, those with spot can consider selling high carefully [28][29] Pig - **Related Information**: The pig price is oscillating downward. As of June 17, the national 7 - kg piglet price was 443 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 15 - kg piglet price was 542 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 50 - kg sow price was 1619 yuan/head, unchanged from June 13. On June 17, the national average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.7% [31] - **Logic Analysis**: The market supply pressure is alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the upward space of futures is limited [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short operation. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [32] Peanut - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is different, and the peanut oil price is strong, but there is room for negotiation. Peanut meal sales are weak. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 139,340 tons, down 5280 tons from last week; as of June 13, the peanut oil inventory was 39,930 tons, down 170 tons from last week [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot trading is light. The expected increase in new - season planting area may lead to a price decline [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Short 10 - month peanuts at high prices. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][37][38] Egg - **Important Information**: The main egg - producing area price rose 0.04 yuan/jin, and the main sales area price fell 0.1 yuan/jin. In May, the national laying hen inventory was 1.334 billion, up 0.11 billion from last month and 7.2% year - on - year. In May, the egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, down 4% month - on - month and up 1% year - on - year. In the week of June 13, the national main - producing area laying hen culling volume was 20.52 million, up 2.8% from the previous week. As of June 12, the average culling age was 512 days, down 3 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 8194 tons, down 7.4% from last week. As of June 13, the average inventory in the production link was 1.03 days, up 0.09 days from last week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, up 0.02 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the average weekly egg profit was - 0.47 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week; on June 13, the expected laying hen breeding profit was 15.5 yuan/feather, down 1.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [41][42][43] - **Trading Logic**: The egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price may be weak. The far - month contracts may rise if the culling volume increases [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month far - month contracts in mid - to - late June. Short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts. For options, wait and see [44] Apple - **Important Information**: As of June 11, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.2746 million tons, down 107,400 tons from last week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March was 255,600 tons, up 9.5% year - on - year; the import volume was 13,300 tons, up 123.9% year - on - year. The apple price is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [46] - **Trading Logic**: The low inventory may support the price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - month futures price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in June [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [49][50][51] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.15 (0.22%) to 68.05 cents/lb [52] - **Important Information**: As of June 14, the Brazilian cotton harvesting progress was 2.8%, up 1.4 percentage points from last week. As of June 15, the US cotton planting rate was 85%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the budding rate was 19%, 2 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 3%, the same as last year; the good - quality rate was 48%, 6 percentage points lower than last year. The cotton spot trading is generally cold, and the sales basis is firm [53][54][55] - **Trading Logic**: The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to decline [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing escalation of the situation in Iran may impact the international commodity market due to Iran's significant role as a producer of energy, minerals, and agricultural products [1]. Group 1: Commodity Production Impact - Iran's production share in global output for various commodities such as methanol, fuel oil, iron ore, urea, and crude oil is notably high, indicating potential supply fluctuations that could affect global markets [1].

集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约涨幅扩大至6%，报2150点。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The urea fundamentals remain loose. The current rebound is mainly driven by increased purchases from traders at low prices and the strengthening of the energy - chemical sector stimulated by the Israel - Iran conflict, mostly led by market sentiment with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The upward trend may not be sustainable, but the upcoming agricultural demand and export will limit the price movement range [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market continued to rebound by nearly 4% today, and upstream factory prices increased to varying degrees, boosting market sentiment and downstream trading atmosphere. The price increase this week was also affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, which stimulated the domestic price through the expectation of international supply disruption. - On the supply side, the daily production of urea remained above 200,000 tons, with narrow long - term fluctuations, suppressing the upward movement of the market. - On the demand side, agricultural fertilizer preparation improved, with corn top - dressing in the Northeast about to start and agricultural demand in North China expected to start next month. The compound fertilizer factories had a decreased operating load, slow progress in autumn fertilizer production, and difficulty in inventory reduction, resulting in weak demand for urea. - Last week's inventory data showed an increase in factory inventory. After the export of goods at the end of the month, the inventory pressure will be relieved [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton and closed at 1774 yuan/ton, up 3.99%. The trading volume was 285,825 lots (+6,801 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 6,383 lots and short positions decreased by 8,785 lots. For example, Guotai Junan's net long positions increased by 4,697 lots, and Zhongtai Futures' net long positions decreased by 5,624 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Upstream factory prices increased, and the market sentiment improved. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1740 - 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price rebounded. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract weakened by 11 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - **Supply**: On June 17, 2025, the national daily urea production was 202,500 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 17, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,810, a decrease of 112 from the previous trading day. Among them, Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 82, and Liaoning Fertilizer decreased by 30 [3].

【冠通研究】 反弹后逢高做空 PP下游开工率环比回落0.04个百分点至49.97%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比下 降0.3个百分点至44.4%，塑编订单略有减少，略高于前两年同期。美国加征关税不利于PP下游制品出 口同时聚丙烯上游丙烷进口受限。徐州海天等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至86%左右，处 于中性水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至27%左右。端午假期石化累库较多，之后石化去库速度一般， 石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。以色列与伊朗相互袭击，中东地缘风险急剧升温，加上中美同意 落实经贸会谈成果，美国5月CPI数据全线低于预期及美国原油库存去库，原油价格大幅上涨。供应 上埃克森惠州两套装置投产放量，近期检修装置有所重启，南方梅雨季节到来，下游恢复缓慢，塑 编开工略有减少，新增订单有限，库存压力仍大，不过中美同意落实经贸会谈成果，原油大幅上涨， 商品情绪好转，预计PP小幅反弹。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2509合约减仓震荡运行，最低价7070元/吨，最高价7134元/吨，最终收盘于7125元/吨， 在20日均线上方，涨幅0.25%。持仓量减少4930手至455542手。 现货方面： PP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Methanol**: Coal prices are weakly stalemated with limited cost support. Supply is relatively stable, downstream demand follows mainly for rigid needs, and inventory accumulates slowly. With some Iranian devices shut down, imports may shrink later, and the methanol futures price has rebounded strongly. In the short - term, the center of gravity may continue to rise, but considering the high - temperature off - season, chasing the rise is not recommended. [3] - **PVC**: The cost side remains low, the market has abundant available goods, and demand follows generally, resulting in a slow market de - stocking speed. The upward trend of PVC futures price is hard to sustain. [4] - **Urea**: Daily production remains high, supply is abundant, and demand is weak with gradually accumulating enterprise inventory. With the expectation of improved agricultural demand, the urea futures have gradually stabilized. [5] - **Caustic Soda**: Enterprise profits are declining, the current capacity utilization rate is relatively high, downstream demand follows slowly, and market de - stocking is not smooth. Fundamentally, there is a lack of driving force, and it may fluctuate at a low level. [6][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Variety Strategy Views | Variety | Logic | View | Strategy | Support Level | Pressure Level | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | Import concerns | Steady upward exploration | Reduce long positions | 2330 - 2350 | 2530 - 2550 | | PVC | Insufficient demand | Upward pressure | Light - position short - trial | 4730 - 4750 | 4850 - 4900 | | Caustic Soda | Spot premium | Low - level wash - trading | Temporarily wait and see | 2200 - 2210 | 2330 - 2350 | | Urea | Loose supply and demand | Weak oscillation | Stop loss and exit short positions | 1650 - 1670 | 1730 - 1750 | [14] 3.2 Second Part: Futures Market Review | Variety | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2511 | 2367 | 2464 | 2593634 | 820106 | 0.00% | | PVC | 4866 | 4792 | 4860 | 1194646 | 978942 | 0.00% | | Urea | 1727 | 1680 | 1723 | 411867 | 279024 | 0.00% | | Caustic Soda | 2278 | 2237 | 2276 | 410848 | 201021 | - 6.32% | [14] 3.3 Third Part: Spot Market Trends - **Methanol**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Central China 2255 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), Northwest 2010 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton), South China 2450 yuan/ton (up 105 yuan/ton), North China 2055 yuan/ton (unchanged) [21] - **PVC**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: North China market 4493 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China market 4755 yuan/ton (unchanged), South China market 4823 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton) [24] - **Urea**: Small - particle urea ex - factory prices in different regions vary, such as 1693 yuan/ton in North China (up 5 yuan/ton), 1781 yuan/ton in East China (up 6 yuan/ton), etc. [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Shandong market 870 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu market 960 yuan/ton (unchanged), Zhejiang market 1160 yuan/ton (unchanged) [29] 3.4 Fourth Part: Futures - Spot Basis Changes | Variety | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 121 | 30 | | PVC | - 105 | - 1 | | Caustic Soda | 22 | - 5 | | Urea | - 3 | - 72 | [36] 3.5 Fifth Part: Industry Startup Levels | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Startup Rate | 84.90% | 87.98% | 79.25% | 87.80% | 80.90% | | Month - on - Month Change | 4.14% | - 0.14% | - 1.47% | - 1.63% | - 2.60% | [41] 3.6 Sixth Part: Inventory Data Tracking | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory | 170.95 | 65.22 | 35.48 | 117.71 | 40.09 | | Weekly Change | 2.32 | 7.10 | - 0.66 | 14.17 | - 1.50 | [52] 3.7 Seventh Part: Market Supply and Demand Status - **Methanol**: The spot market atmosphere is warm, with prices rising. The spot is at a premium to futures, and the basis has expanded. The upstream coal market is stalemated, and the cost side changes little. The industry startup rate is high, and production is stable. Coastal inventory has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [57] - **PVC**: The spot market atmosphere is poor, with prices slightly loosening. The spot is at a discount to futures, and the basis has slightly expanded. The upstream raw material calcium carbide market has a small increase, and the PVC industry startup rate is expected to decline slightly. Social inventory has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year [58] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market atmosphere has cooled, with prices falling in some regions. The spot is at a large premium to futures, and the basis has fallen from a high level. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and the profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has shrunk significantly. Supply is generally stable, and downstream demand is average [59][60] - **Urea**: The spot market atmosphere is stable, with prices rising. The spot is at a small premium to futures, and the basis has converged. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased significantly. Downstream demand has improved slightly [61]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the futures price showed a weak oscillation, and the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [1][3] - For polysilicon, the futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term due to improved commodity sentiment and more capital games [4][6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The 2507 main contract opened at 7305 yuan/ton and closed at 7370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.41% from the previous settlement price. The 2505 main contract held 323363 positions at the close, and on June 17, the total number of warehouse receipts was 56823, a decrease of 1097 from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 57.2 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. Among them, the general social warehouse was 13.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse was 43.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons [1] Consumption End - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 10400 - 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market's transaction center continued to decline, and the mainstream transaction price was about 10700 yuan/ton. The lowest transaction price in Shandong was below 10500 yuan/ton. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer enterprises was expected to approach 70%, and the DMC transaction center was expected to decline slightly [2] Strategy - The industrial silicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. The strategy was to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises could sell hedging at high prices [3] Group 4: Polysilicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures 2507 main contract oscillated. It opened at 33765 yuan/ton and closed at 34320 yuan/ton, a 1.93% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 51277 positions, and the trading volume was 62835 [4] - The polysilicon spot price was stable. The re - feeding material was priced at 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material at 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon at 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material at 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon factory inventory increased slightly, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50, a 2.23% change, silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW, a - 3.40% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 23800.00 tons, an 8.00% change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.10GW, a 0.40% change [4][5] - In terms of silicon wafers, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.06 yuan/piece [5] - In terms of battery cells, the high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5] Strategy - The polysilicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term. The strategy was neutral [6]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 17 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 29 元/吨至 2417 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 | | | | | 货价格上涨 95 元/吨至 2585 元/吨。多头持仓增加 1163 手至 48.12 万手，空头持仓 | | | | | 增加 45546 手至 53.37 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 87.98%，环比上涨 0.03%。海外甲醇开工率 66.86%， | | | | | 环比增加 2.01%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 65.22 万吨，较上一期数据增加 7.10 万吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库 ...