Group 1: Core Insights - The recent upward trend in gold prices is attributed to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar, and increased geopolitical risks, which have heightened safe-haven demand [2] - Institutional investors are optimistic about the future of gold, as evidenced by continuous increases in gold ETF holdings, contributing to the price rise [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices trading above the upper band; MACD shows a bullish crossover, while RSI indicates an overbought condition, suggesting a potential pullback [3] - The 4-hour chart also shows expanding Bollinger Bands, with prices near the upper band; MACD remains bullish, and RSI is in an overbought state [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates expanding Bollinger Bands, with prices below the upper band; MACD shows a narrowing bullish crossover, and RSI remains overbought, signaling a potential slowdown in upward momentum [3] Group 3: Future Trading Strategies - For aggressive traders, a long position can be initiated near the support level of $3350/oz, while conservative traders may wait for a stabilization around $3300/oz before entering long positions [4] - For short positions, aggressive traders can consider selling near the resistance level of $3530/oz, while conservative traders may look to sell around $3550/oz [4] - Specific trading recommendations for various gold instruments include: - Shanghai gold futures showing strong upward momentum, with support at 800 CNY/g and resistance at 815 CNY/g [4] - Relying on international gold price movements, Rongtong gold is recommended for purchase around 795 CNY/g, targeting 810 CNY/g [4] - Accumulating Jicun gold when prices drop to around 790 CNY/g for long-term holding [4] - Gold T+D is stable, with a suggestion to enter a light long position around 795 CNY/g, targeting resistance at 810 CNY/g [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market opened lower on the first trading day of September, with all three major indices declining, indicating increased caution among investors after the summer holiday [1][3] - Gold prices surged by 1.6% to $3,532 per ounce, reflecting strong market risk aversion amid multiple uncertainties, including trade policy changes and rising long-term Treasury yields [1] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 249.07 points, a decrease of 0.55%, closing at 45,295.81 points [3][4] - The S&P 500 index dropped by 0.69%, closing at 6,415.54 points [3][4] - The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced the largest decline, down 0.82% to 21,279.63 points [3][4] Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points and the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points [5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.27%, while the 30-year yield briefly surpassed 4.97%, creating significant headwinds for the stock market [7] Sector Analysis - The recent market pullback has primarily affected previously leading technology stocks, with Nvidia down approximately 2%, and Amazon and Apple each declining nearly 1% [7] - Investors are choosing to take profits amid weakening economic data and unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, as well as high valuations [7] Legal and Policy Uncertainty - A recent court ruling declared many tariffs imposed during the Trump administration as illegal, prompting concerns about potential refunds of billions in tariff revenue, which could worsen the already strained fiscal situation [7] - This legal uncertainty has led investors to reassess the US government's fiscal capacity and policy stability, contributing to a shift of funds into the bond market [7] Seasonal Trends - Historically, September has been a weak month for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 4.2% over the past five years and over 2% in the last decade [8] - Despite a strong performance in August, where the S&P 500 reached five historical highs, the optimism did not fully carry into September [8] Employment Data and Fed Policy - Investors are closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll report for August, which will assess the resilience of the US labor market and may influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [9] - Current market expectations suggest a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [11][12] Commodity Outlook - Most institutions remain bullish on gold, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $3,600 per ounce by the end of next year [15] - In contrast, the outlook for oil prices appears limited, with expectations that OPEC+ will maintain current production levels amid concerns of oversupply [15]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55%, the S&P 500 down by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.82% [3] - Major European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down by 2.29%, the UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.87%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 1.42% [3] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.47% to 25,496.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.22% to 5,728.46 points, with a total market turnover of HKD 328.12 billion [4] - The A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component down by 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index down by 2.85%, with a total turnover of CNY 2.87 trillion [5] Group 2 - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 24% year-on-year in August, reaching 1.3 million units [11] - The gold price reached a new historical high, closing at USD 3,533.43 per ounce, up by 1.64% [6] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.46% to USD 65.37 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.38% to USD 69 per barrel [6] - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong faced significant declines, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC dropping over 4% and 5% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past the psychological barrier of $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3508.73, driven by multiple favorable factors and underlying market tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is high, with nearly a 90% probability for a September cut, supported by dovish signals from Fed officials [3]. - A weak US dollar has made gold more attractive globally, as it becomes cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus boosting demand [5]. - Rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, suggesting potential for further price increases, with key resistance levels at $3490-$3500 and support at $3460-$3450 [7]. - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs are optimistic, predicting gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, attracting more investor interest [7]. - However, some analysts caution about potential short-term technical corrections, noting a divergence in trading volume that may indicate underlying risks [7]. Group 3: Upcoming Market Events - The gold market may experience significant volatility in the coming days, particularly with the upcoming court ruling on President Trump's dismissal of a Fed official, which is seen as a critical test of the Fed's independence [8]. - The release of the US non-farm payroll report could provide further evidence of labor market weakness, potentially reinforcing the case for a Fed rate cut and impacting gold prices [8].

Group 1 - Recent surge in precious metal prices, with gold reaching a peak of $3508.69 per ounce and silver hitting $40.848 per ounce, marking the highest levels since April 2023 and September 2011 respectively [1] - Platinum and palladium also saw significant increases, with platinum rising 2.9% to $1424.8 per ounce and palladium increasing 2.75% to $1147 per ounce on September 1 [1] - The rise in precious metal prices is primarily driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2][3] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, which is expected to positively impact precious metal prices [3] - Geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting the upward trend in gold prices [2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to show weak job growth, which may reinforce rate cut expectations and support gold prices in the short term [3]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.29% at the close [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the two markets experienced gains, with a total trading volume of 2.75 trillion [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals saw a strong rally, closing up by 8.82%, with stocks like Xiaocheng Technology rising by 3.43% and several gold and silver companies hitting the daily limit [3] - Sectors such as monoclonal antibodies, jewelry, optical communication modules, CPO concepts, and innovative drugs all recorded gains above 3% [3] - The insurance sector faced a decline, closing down by 2.58%, with New China Life Insurance falling by 3.65% and other major insurers also experiencing declines of over 2% [3] - Other sectors like aerospace, brokerage, airport, wheel motor, and banking followed the insurance sector in terms of adjustments [3] Market Sentiment - Despite the three major indices closing in the green, market hotspots appeared disorganized, with financial stocks collectively adjusting and insurance stocks leading the decline [3] - The strong performance of the gold sector indicates a growing risk-averse sentiment among investors, suggesting a potential for market correction and reallocation opportunities [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, both risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts increased, leading to a significant rise in gold prices. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, and Thailand - Cambodia, along with Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook and the release of dovish signals by Fed officials, boosted gold prices [2]. - This week (the week of September 1st), gold prices are expected to remain at a high level. The anticipated weakness in the US August non - farm payrolls report and continued geopolitical risks will support gold prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements**: On August 29th, the Shanghai gold futures price recovered by 1.52% to 785.12 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.89% to 3516.10 dollars/ounce. Gold T + D spot price increased 1.31% to 781.70 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.24% to 3446.81 dollars/ounce [2][5]. - **Gold Basis**: The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 46.35 dollars/ounce, down 7.00 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.30 yuan/gram, down 1.01 yuan/gram [8]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 22.25 yuan/gram, lower than the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio increased, the gold - silver ratio decreased, and the gold - copper ratio rose [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Gold ETF holdings increased. The SPRD gold ETF fund's holdings reached 977.68 tons, up 20.91 tons. Domestic gold T + D trading volume increased by 27.25%. Gold CFTC asset management institutions' net long positions increased, and COMEX gold futures inventory and SHFE gold inventory rose [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Important Economic Data**: Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, which may lead to a constitutional crisis. US July durable goods orders were - 2.8% month - on - month, and core capital goods orders had the fastest growth in nearly three years. US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3%. US July core PCE price index increased year - on - year [19][20][21]. - **Fed Policy Tracking**: Richmond Fed President Barkin expected only minor interest rate adjustments. Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and expected further cuts in the next three to six months. San Francisco Fed President Daly hinted at a rate cut soon [30]. - **US Dollar Index Movement**: The US dollar index rose slightly last week. Geopolitical conflicts drove it up on Monday, but Trump's move and weak economic data caused it to fall later. It ended up 0.13% at 97.85 [31]. - **US TIPS Yield Movement**: The US 10 - year TIPS yield declined slightly due to Trump's move and dovish Fed statements. It was down 3bp to 1.82% [33]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations were deadlocked. Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Russia launched an attack on Kiev while still expressing willingness for peace talks [36].

Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving risk-averse sentiment, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] - The U.S. stock index futures are declining, with the Dow futures down 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.14% [2] - European stocks opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.04%, DAX down 0.2%, and FTSE 100 down 0.25%, while the CAC 40 index increased by 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have surged to record highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 and silver reaching a 14-year high, driven by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts [2] - The Japanese 10-year government bond auction showed strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching the highest level since October 2023, leading to a decrease in yields [2] - Crude oil prices have increased, with Brent crude rising by 0.57% to $68.52 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.59% to $64.99 per barrel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the gold market indicates a bullish outlook, with prices showing strong upward momentum and breaking through significant resistance levels [1][3]. Price Movement - As of September 2, the price of London gold reached $3,492.67 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.50% and a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce [1]. - Over the past five trading days, gold has accumulated a rise of over 3%, with a recent high of $3,508.46 per ounce, reflecting a gain of approximately 0.93% [3]. - After breaching the $3,500 mark, gold experienced a quick pullback of nearly $20, currently trading around $3,492.84 per ounce [3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the demand for gold reserves is increasing in importance compared to U.S. Treasury securities, reinforcing gold's status as a reliable safe-haven asset [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment characterized by monetary easing and heightened risk aversion is driving gold prices higher [3]. - The weak U.S. dollar and global uncertainties are contributing factors that may allow gold to continue challenging historical highs [3]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows a gradual recovery in technical patterns, with short-term moving averages beginning to trend upwards, indicating potential for further price increases [5]. - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are maintaining a strong upward trend without signs of peaking, with a focus on the resistance level around $3,520 [5]. - The hourly chart shows a minor consolidation followed by a second upward movement, suggesting that traders should watch for potential pullbacks before further gains [5]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests entering long positions at the current price of $3,495, with a protective stop-loss set at $3,488, and to adjust stop-loss levels as prices rise above $3,500 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3557.1 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and increased investor risk aversion, with a notable 2.86% increase last week and over 5% for the month of August, marking the best monthly performance since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, the COMEX gold futures price peaked at $3557.1 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - The gold price has seen a cumulative increase of over 5% in August, the best monthly performance since April [1] - The gold stocks ETF fund has experienced a 12.91% increase over the past week, ranking it in the top 1/6 of comparable funds [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with many believing that reaching $4000 per ounce next year is feasible [1] - Citic Securities' report indicates that the core PCE inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve has shown a moderate increase, stabilizing market expectations for a rate cut in September [1] Group 3: ETF Fund Performance - The gold stocks ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 41.73 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong market interest [2] - The fund's one-year net value has increased by 56.28%, with a historical holding period showing a 100% probability of profit [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio stands at 1.51, ranking it in the top 2/6 of comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] Group 4: Index Composition - The China Securities Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 66.52% of the total, with major companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold leading the list [5]