日本央行判断"经济很可能继续温和复苏"，并预计产出缺口将按趋势改善、适度扩大。2025至2027财年 实际GDP增速预期中值分别为0.9%、1.0%和0.8%，较2025年10月预测有所上调。同期核心CPI预期中值 为2.7%、1.9%和2.0%；剔除生鲜食品与能源的"核心-核心CPI"预期则为3.0%、2.2%和2.1%，显示潜在 通胀压力仍具韧性。 新华财经北京1月23日电日本央行宣布维持基准利率于0.75%不变，符合市场普遍预期。该决定以8比1 的投票结果通过，审议委员高田创投下唯一反对票，主张将短期利率目标上调至1.0%，理由是价格稳 定目标已基本实现，且海外经济处于复苏阶段，物价面临上行风险。 日本央行在政策声明中指出，当前借贷成本处于三十年来最高水平，决策层需密切观察2025年12月加息 对经济与物价的实际影响。 行长植田和男将于当日下午举行新闻发布会，就利率路径、通胀前景及近期长期收益率飙升等问题作出 说明，其表态可能对日元汇率产生直接影响。 日本首相高市早苗日前宣布暂停对食品征收消费税，并计划提前举行大选，引发金融市场波动。分析机 构指出，日本央行当前处境微妙，既需通过政策信号抑制日元空头，又 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，美国 Q3 实际 | | | | | | | | | GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%;美 | | | | | | | | | 11 月 PCE 物价指数同比 2.8%，环比涨 0.2%，均符合预期,通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳 | | | | | | | | | | 健。国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降 | | | | | | | | 息还有一定的空间。库存方面，LME 库存增加 8850 吨至 168250 吨；Comex | | 库存增加 | | | | | | | 4031 吨至 507437 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 2408 吨至 143173 吨，BC 铜下降 75 吨至 | | | | 10685 | | ...

The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.75% on Friday, while upgrading economic growth and inflation forecasts in a decision that carries significant long-term implications for cryptocurrency markets. As Japan navigates a collision between monetary tightening and fiscal expansion ahead of snap elections, crypto markets face growing exposure to yen-driven liquidity shifts and potential unwinding of carry trades. Split Vote Signals Internal Tension The decision came in a split 8-1 v ...

1月中期流动性净投放总额高达1万亿元，较此前规模显著加大。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，净投放7000亿元，总量上介于降准0.25个百分点到0.5个百分点之间。此次 MLF实现较大规模净投放后，今年春节之前降准的可能性降低。 展望未来，中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，伴随央行在买断式逆回购、MLF两大类工具加码投放的 背景下，短期增量工具可能趋于稳健。但长期看，灵活高效的总量政策基调下，降息降准空间较为明 确，关注后续政府债供给集中发力阶段总量工具配合宽财政的可能性。 考虑到春节临近，央行加大流动性净投放规模是呵护市场流动性平稳的重要手段。 王青分析称，央行之所以加大流动性净投放，是为保障重点领域重大项目资金需求，巩固拓展经济回升 向好势头。2026年新增地方政府债务限额已提前下达，这意味着2026年1月会有一定规模的政府债券开 闸发行。此外，2025年10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕后，还会继续带动今年1月配套贷款 较大规模投放，放大信贷"开门红"效应。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜日前表示，在总量政策方面，将灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具， 保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增 ...

文/刘佳 1月23日，据《经济日报》消息，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜在专访中首次谈及"十五五"开局 之年货币政策的发力方向并表示，2026年，人民银行将认真贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策 和存量政策集成效应，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为 实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。 总量政策方面，潘功胜指出，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币 政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。人民银行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低 位运行。 结构性政策方面，潘功胜表示，坚持聚焦重点、合理适度、有进有退，不断优化结构性货币政策工具的 设计和管理，引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。前几天，人民银行已经 发布了一批在年初先行出台的货币金融政策，对结构性货币政策工具的政策要素作了优化完善。 "同时，我们还要继续维护好金融市场的平 ...

日本央行：将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度，适时实施货币政策。前景面临的风险包括贸易 政策对海外经济体的影响、国内企业工资和定价行为，以及金融和外汇市场的发展。日本金融体系总体 稳定。全球经济前景仍存在不确定性，例如贸易政策的影响，这可能导致供给端进口价格上涨。中长期 通胀预期很可能继续温和上升。产出缺口有望按趋势改善，并适度扩大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US economic data is strong, and the three major US stock indexes have collectively closed higher. Domestically, the monetary policy will continue the moderately loose tone, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The personal consumer loan discount policy has officially landed, and attention should be paid to its supporting effect on consumption recovery. Currently, the policy regulation cooling trend continues, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has further declined. Attention can be focused on the entry opportunities of IC [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - Domestically, the central bank governor said that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The six major state - owned banks have implemented the personal consumer loan fiscal discount policy. After discount, the actual interest rate of consumer loans for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range. Overseas, the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the 11 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [1]. Spot Market - A - share three major indexes fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14% to 4122.58 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. In terms of industries, the building materials, national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, and communication industries led the gains, while the beauty care, banking, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the losses. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.7 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.91% to 23436.02 points [2]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, the current - month contracts of IH, IC, and IM were at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the open interest of IF and IH increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy - Focus on the entry opportunities of IC due to the further decline of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index under the continuous policy regulation cooling trend [3]. Chart Summary Macroeconomic Charts - Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][6]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 22 and 21, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][6][13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Tables show the trading volume, open interest, basis (futures - spot), and inter - delivery spread of IF, IH, IC, and IM. There are also corresponding charts for each indicator [5][6][15].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion MLF operation on January 23, which indicates a significant increase in medium-term liquidity support to stabilize the financial market [1] Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC will roll over 700 billion MLF this month, netting a total liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan, which is a notable increase compared to previous months [1] - With 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net increase in MLF operations reflects a proactive approach to manage liquidity [1] Group 2: Market Stability - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions are aimed at countering potential liquidity tightening and ensuring a stable and ample funding environment [1] - The increased liquidity is expected to support government bond issuance and encourage financial institutions to enhance credit lending [1] Group 3: Policy Implications - The current measures may serve as a substitute for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, especially with the upcoming Spring Festival leading to a seasonal increase in cash withdrawals [1] - The PBOC's recent structural support policies indicate a continued supportive stance in monetary policy [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the absolute price correction, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. However, the upward price trend has difficulty in being transmitted downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output continuing to decline month - on - month, and may enter the Spring Festival holiday early. Although the long - term macro factors still drive the price up, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. - For alumina, the gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is still falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, the oversupply situation persists, and the social inventory is increasing with a possible risk of over - stocking [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,740 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,100 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,055 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,160 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 355,802 lots, and the open interest was 337,960 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 743,000 tons, a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 138,856 tons, a change of 101 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 509,275 tons, a change of 2,100 tons from the previous day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 22, 2026, the Shanxi alumina price was 2,615 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,560 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,750 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,717 yuan/ton, a change of 48 yuan/ton (1.80% change) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,728 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,666 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 564,157 lots, and the open interest was 489,138 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 22, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price was 18,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 23,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the absolute price decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. But the price increase is difficult to be passed on downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output declining. The early - stage inventory accumulation has put pressure on the price. Although the long - term macro factors support the price increase, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. Alumina - The gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak due to factors such as low import ore trading volume, falling prices, and increased bauxite arrivals in China. The supply pressure remains, and there is a risk of over - stocking [6][7].

日本央行维持政策利率在0.75%不变，符合预期。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...