Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the bond market and the broader financial environment in China, particularly in relation to fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stimulating economic growth [1][3][4][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Trends** - The bond market has experienced a recent decline in yields followed by a slight rebound, with a recommendation to maintain caution in trading sentiment and avoid chasing high prices [2][3]. - The ten-year active bond yield faces significant resistance between 1.770% and 1.775% [2]. 2. **Fiscal Policy Initiatives** - Broad fiscal policies are being implemented, including the introduction of new policy financial tools and an increase in local government bond issuance, totaling 500 billion yuan [5][8]. - These measures aim to address the current weak economic recovery by stimulating investment demand [4][5]. 3. **Monetary Policy Coordination** - There is an emphasis on the need for monetary policy to complement fiscal measures, with potential actions including interest rate cuts and the central bank purchasing government bonds to release medium to long-term liquidity [3][11]. - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut may also influence domestic monetary policy decisions [11]. 4. **Financial Data Insights** - Recent financial data indicates a year-on-year increase in residents' medium to long-term credit, suggesting signs of stabilization [6]. - Non-bank deposits saw a seasonal decline in September, linked to stock market fluctuations and regulatory assessments [6]. 5. **New Policy Financial Tools** - New policy financial tools are designed to support sectors such as technology innovation, green transformation, consumption upgrades, and foreign trade stability [7]. - These tools may lead to a restart of PSL (Pledged Supplementary Lending), thereby increasing liquidity [7]. 6. **Local Government Bond Issuance** - The issuance of local government bonds is aimed at project financing, debt resolution, and enhancing local fiscal capacity [8][9]. - The current issuance of 500 billion yuan is a repeat of last year's actions, indicating a strategic approach to managing local government finances [10]. 7. **Market Impact of Bond Issuance** - The reactivation of 500 billion yuan in local bonds is expected to increase issuance pressure and configuration challenges in the market [10]. - The anticipated net financing scale for government bonds in October is projected to return to approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, similar to previous months [10]. 8. **Credit Market Dynamics** - The credit market is experiencing a structural recovery, with short-duration bonds performing well, particularly in the 3 to 5-year category [13][14]. - Public funds have significantly contributed to the demand for short-term credit bonds, with net purchases reaching 39.4 billion yuan [15]. 9. **Long-term Credit Bonds** - Long-term credit bonds have not fully recovered, with limited yield declines and less active trading compared to short-term bonds [16]. - Caution is advised for long-term strategies due to market volatility [17]. Additional Important Insights - The upcoming political bureau work meeting and the central economic work meeting in December are expected to provide further clarity on economic policies for the fourth quarter and the following year [3][11]. - The overall sentiment in the credit market remains cautious, particularly for longer-duration assets, while short-duration assets are viewed more favorably [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stable economic conditions and policy rates [1][2]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year [1]. - The overall economic operation remains stable, supporting the decision to keep LPR unchanged [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a possibility of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions by the central bank before the end of the year, which could lead to a further decline in LPR [2]. - The central bank has cumulatively lowered policy rates by 0.8 percentage points since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, resulting in a significant decrease in financing costs for the real economy [2]. Housing Market Policies - It is anticipated that the regulatory authorities may further strengthen policies to stabilize the housing market, potentially leading to a more significant reduction in mortgage rates [2]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for implementing growth-stabilizing policies, with expectations for increased credit supply from financial institutions [2]. External Factors - The external environment, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, has created a favorable context for domestic monetary policy adjustments [3]. - The overall stability of the domestic economic situation will be a key factor in determining whether LPR adjustments will occur [3].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, 2025, the LPR quotes remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. The Ministry of Finance announced two measures to support economic growth, including allocating 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits and pre - issuing the 2026 local government debt quota. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with September's economic data showing mixed results. The yield of treasury bond spot bonds mostly weakened, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The domestic economy's third - quarter growth was stable but slightly declined compared to the previous value. Overseas, the market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the Sino - US trade policy shows signs of easing. Fiscal policies are expected to drive effective investment and credit, and monetary policies may become more accommodative. The bond market is gradually stabilizing, and it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy while paying attention to policy trends [2]. Summary by Categories Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.14%, 0.11%, 0.04%, and 0.37% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes increased, while TL's decreased. T, TF, and TL main contract positions decreased, and TS's increased [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads between different contracts decreased, while the spreads between different - term contracts such as T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net short positions of T, TF, and TS top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of treasury active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield at 1.3950% (down 0.25bp), 3 - year at 1.5100% (down 0.60bp), 5 - year at 1.5800% (down 0.75bp), 7 - year at 1.6825% (down 0.85bp), and 10 - year at 1.7450% (down 0.80bp) [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight and 7 - day rates decreased, while the 14 - day rate increased. The Shibor overnight rate decreased, the 7 - day rate increased, and the 14 - day rate increased [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 189 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 253.8 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - The 2025 Q3 GDP was 10,150.36 billion yuan, a 5.2% year - on - year increase at constant prices. September's social consumer goods retail was 419.71 billion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. The national fixed - asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting will be held from October 21st to 22nd [3].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/10/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 23.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1682.000 | | 1522 | | | +62.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2512-EC2602价差 -22.70↓ EC2512-EC2604价差 | 160.00 | | 526.90 | | | -3.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -541.62 | +81.28↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 442↑ | 2610 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the bond market is influenced by factors such as trade tensions and inflation readings, with expectations for continued support from fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed improvement from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with fluctuations in risk sentiment affecting bond yields [2]. - On Monday, bond yields rebounded due to shifting risk sentiment following easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2]. - Tuesday saw a correction in the equity market, leading to a recovery in the bond market as risk appetite shifted [2]. - On Wednesday, inflation data had minimal impact on the bond market, with slight increases in bond yields [3]. - Thursday continued the recovery trend in the bond market, with long-term bond yields declining significantly [3]. Group 2: Credit Market Dynamics - Short-term credit bonds performed better this week, with yields decreasing by up to 6 basis points [4]. - The credit spread for short-term bonds also narrowed, with notable reductions in the spreads for AAA-rated bonds [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Bond Market Recovery - The recovery in the bond market is driven by three main factors: changes in U.S.-China trade relations, lack of inflationary pressure, and the need for supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - The upcoming APEC summit and potential new tariffs are expected to increase market uncertainty, boosting demand for bonds as a safe haven [5]. - Current inflation trends show no signs of recovery, with PPI and CPI data indicating stability but not upward movement, necessitating further policy support [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Insights - Recent fiscal policy updates include the introduction of new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting effective investment [7]. - The early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026 indicates a proactive approach to fiscal management, with an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year [7]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts and the resumption of bond purchases to support fiscal measures [8]. - The central bank's emphasis on detailed implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy suggests readiness for further actions in the fourth quarter [8]. Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The current environment indicates limited risk of rising bond yields, with a strong need for favorable interest rates to support fiscal supply, suggesting a continued basis for the bond market's recovery [9].

大宗商品研究、咨询和投资管理研究机构CPM Group的中国 区总经理曲硕表示，当前，影响金价的因素里，避险需求是核 心因素，其次是通胀、货币等次要因素。此外，还有制造业需 求带来的负面影响，美联储降息的影响也比较小。 作者： 刘颖 封图：图虫创意 2019年，国际金价开启新一轮上涨，疫情后突破2000美元/盎司；2021年至2023年，国际金价进入横向波动期，其中2022年受美联储加息预期影响出现 回调；2024年，国际金价有效突破2000美元/盎司，当年3月因地缘风险增加，年内一度上涨突破2800美元/盎司，年均价2600美元/盎司；2025年，国 际金价屡创新高，4月达3500美元/盎司，10月7日突破4000美元/盎司。 经济观察报：回调周期的影响因素有哪些？ 曲硕： 黄金回调多由市场恐慌性抛盘引发，也容易受到其他市场波动的影响。当市场出现挤兑事件时，恐慌情绪会快速蔓延，投资者会集中抛售各类 资产，黄金往往会被连带抛售。如2020年金价先跌至近1000美元/盎司，后逐步回升。 10月17日，伦敦现货黄金触及4380美元/盎司的历史高点后，出现震荡调整。最终，当日报收4251美元/盎司，下跌1.73%， ...

记者 刘颖 10月17日，伦敦现货黄金触及4380美元/盎司的历史高点后，出现震荡调整。最终，当日报收4251美元/盎司，下跌1.73%，但仍处于历史高位水平。 在这一波黄金暴涨行情中，有人选择了高位变现，有人追高入市。 作为穿越经济周期的传统避险资产，黄金价格的每一轮剧烈波动都与全球经济格局、地缘政治风险、货币政策走向等核心变量深度绑定。当前，金价的凌厉 涨势背后，是避险资金加速涌入、资产配置逻辑重塑与市场情绪共振的多重作用。 10月16日，大宗商品研究、咨询和投资管理研究机构CPM Group的中国区总经理曲硕就金价历史运行规律、当前核心驱动力量、产业端供需变化及普通投资 者应对策略等问题，接受了经济观察报记者的专访。 【对话】 经济观察报：从历史数据看，国际金价走势有哪些规律？近年来，金价的具体波动情况如何？是否存在上涨或回调周期？ 经济观察报：当前推动金价上涨的关键力量是什么？是否有数据支撑？ 曲硕：当前，影响金价的因素里，避险需求是核心因素，其次是通胀、货币等次要因素。此外，还有制造业需求带来的负面影响，美联储降息的影响也比较 小。 从避险需求来看，主要有三方面推动：一方面是美国总统特朗普的政策预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans for five consecutive months, indicating a lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes amid historically low net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms has remained unchanged for five months, reflecting a stable pricing basis due to the unchanged policy rates [2]. - The recent increase in market interest rates, including the AAA-rated 1-year interbank certificates of deposit, has slightly raised the financing costs for commercial banks, further reducing the incentive to lower LPR quotes [2][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic data, including consumption, investment, and industrial production, has shown a decline due to multiple factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in the real estate market [3]. - The acceleration in export growth, influenced by trade transfer effects and changes in the previous year's base, along with earlier fiscal policy support, has contributed to the stability of the LPR [3]. Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - Analysts predict an increased necessity for policies aimed at stabilizing growth and employment, especially in light of external volatility and declining investment and consumption growth [5]. - There is a potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year, which could lead to a decrease in LPR quotes, stimulating internal financing demand [5][6]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts may weaken the constraints on China's monetary policy, increasing the likelihood of domestic rate adjustments [5][6].

新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。10月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年10月20日LPR为：1年期LPR为3%，5年期以上 LPR为3.5%。两大报价均与前值保持一致，以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 自2025年5月双双下行10个基点后，LPR两大报价已经连续5个月未发生变化，背后主要支撑因素集中在政策利率持稳、商业银行净息差压力以及货币政策处 于观察期等方面。有分析人士指出，年底前人民银行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下降。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures declining across the board and interbank bond yields generally rising by 1-2 basis points, indicating a significant pullback in the long end of the curve [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.37% at 115.300, the 10-year main contract down 0.14% at 108.110, the 5-year main contract down 0.11% at 105.655, and the 2-year main contract down 0.04% at 102.334 [2]. - Interbank yields for major bonds rose, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.918%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.765% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.77 basis points to 3.466% and the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.013% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.669% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.5549% for 182 days, 1.7285% for 3 years, and 1.7962% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.79, 2.28, and 2.51 respectively [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 189 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 648 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.317% and the 7-day rate up by 0.3 basis points to 1.418% [6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1% [7]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September, while real estate development investment fell by 13.9% [7]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted a recent recovery in the bond market due to changes in U.S.-China trade tensions and rising market risk aversion, with expectations for continued monetary policy support [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested that while trade tensions may persist, the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a preference for short-term trading strategies [9].