专题研究 2025 年 报 （2025 年 12 月） 利率债研究 货币政策将延续支持性立场 收益率核心区间或为 1.7%-1.9% ——2025 年货币政策与利率债回顾与 2026 年展望 本期要点 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 关注二季度货币政策报告释放的四大信号， 2025 年 8 月 恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意 义——7 月利率运行分析与展望，2025 年 8 月 买断式逆回购首次月初预告，流动性改 善关注短端利率机会 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 新一轮增量金融政策的四大关注——5 月7 号国新办发布会点评，2025 年 5 月 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续，2025 年 4 月 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 ...

2025.12. 18 本文字数：2144，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 邢自强 中央经济工作会议定调是比较温和的托底而非强刺激，更多是对 2025 年已有政策的延续，没有较大 的调整转向。 政策基调是稳妥布局、渐进推进，想要稳住目前的增长水平、部分减轻通缩压力，但没有体现出对实 现再通胀、打破通缩循环进行强刺激或较大路径调整的诉求。 考虑到这些因素，我们对 2026 年的增长，特别是名义 GDP 增长的预期，还是保持在大概 4% 出头 的名义 GDP 增速，这比市场的一致预期更保守一点。 对于明年的财政政策、货币政策、房地产和消费政策而言：财政尽管总量上比较温和，但可能会前置 到一季度和上半年，用基建投资作为抓手；货币政策真正降息降准空间不是特别大；地产的进一步扶 持政策和消费的进一步刺激政策，可能要靠形势的演绎，也就是形势比人强，要经过上半年的演绎之 后，政策才会相机抉择。 具体来讲，财政方面，财政赤字不管是官方的显性赤字率，还是叠加了一些隐性部分在一起的广义赤 字，初始额度定得跟 2025 年基本持平，但是在使用和发行上能够明显前置。这个前置更多投向了基 建，比如城市更新、地下管网改造，绿色转 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract is 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,735 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 231,253 lots, up 7,279 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are - 33,302 lots, down 996 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,925 tons, up 325 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 89,389 tons, up 484 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipt is 44,650 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 92,240 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the Yangtze River non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 92,395 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 360 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.8 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.08 dollars/kiloton, down 0.22 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 82,500 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 83,200 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 1,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unforged copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment completed is 4,824.34 billion yuan, up 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 78,590.9 billion yuan, up 5,028.2 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 18.1%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.18%, down 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 19.27%, up 0.0112. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0181 [2] Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" starts with a moderately loose monetary policy aiming for economic growth and price recovery, with expected reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts next year. The Fed official indicates a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space. In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]

泰国央行行长周四表示，鉴于黄金交易激增助推泰铢升值，央行正呼吁财政部出手管控黄金交易；他还 补充称，在关键利率已降至三年低点后，若有必要，货币政策或将进一步放宽。 今年以来，泰铢兑美元汇率已上涨9.1%，成为亚洲表现第二好的货币，这加剧了泰国这个东南亚第二 大经济体的困境。 目前，泰国正面临多重挑战，包括美国关税冲击、高企的家庭债务、与柬埔寨的边 境冲突，以及明年2月8日大选前的政治不确定性。 泰国央行行长威塔伊·拉塔纳空（Vitai Ratanakorn）在一场商业论坛上表示，黄金交易资金流已成为影 响泰铢汇率波动的重要驱动因素。 "在泰铢大幅走强的日子里，黄金交易额约占推动泰铢上涨资金流动的一半，"他指出，目前大型黄金交 易商的交易量规模已相当于泰国国内生产总值（GDP）的50%左右。 "央行正竭尽所能，最大限度地扩充各类调控措施。我们有《外汇法》可以依托，但该法律并未覆盖黄 金交易业务。必须有相关部门出面监管黄金交易，"他说道。 暂不计划对黄金交易征税 泰国央行表示，目前暂无对黄金交易征税的计划。黄金交易商此前已明确反对征税举措，并警告称此举 将对该行业造成沉重打击。 威塔伊还表示，央行也不会通过对资本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference continued the positive policy tone, and the Fed's interest rate cut eased external constraints. The credit bond market in 2026 will have relatively stable liquidity support and structural development opportunities under the "moderately loose" monetary environment and clear policy guidance. However, it may present a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to focus on the coupon value of medium - short - term and high - grade bonds [4][14]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Central Economic Work Conference and Credit Bond Market**: The conference set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing support for key areas such as scientific and technological innovation. The "Science and Technology Board" in the bond market promoted the development of science and technology bonds, with the stock scale reaching 3.37 trillion yuan and the ETF product scale exceeding 250 billion yuan. The current bond market default risk is generally stable, but tail and local risks still need attention. The credit bond market is expected to achieve stable and healthy development [11][13][14]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut**: On December 10, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp for the third time this year. Although it eases the pressure of the inverted Sino - US interest rate spread and provides space for China's monetary policy, the credit bond market is still mainly determined by domestic fundamentals and policies. The market is likely to be volatile, and investors are advised to adopt a prudent strategy [15][16][18]. Macroeconomic Data - In November, the year - on - year CPI growth rate reached 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, indicating the continuous recovery of consumer demand. The year - on - year PPI decline was 2.2%. The social financing scale stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5%. The M1 year - on - year growth rate was 4.9%, and the M2 was 8.0%, with the M2 - M1 gap widening to 3.1 percentage points [6][20]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 470 million yuan through open - market operations. Due to seasonal factors, the capital market tightened, and most capital prices rose. The DR001 decreased by 3bp, while other repurchase rates increased by 2 - 7bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor remained stable [22][23]. Credit Bond Primary Market - Last week, the credit bond issuance scale was 274.812 billion yuan, showing a recovery. The issuance scale of different bond types and industries varied. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of financing, and most industries in industrial bonds also had net inflows. The average issuance cost of credit bonds showed a long - short differentiation, with the 1 - year average issuance rate decreasing and the 3 - year and 5 - year rates mostly increasing [27][35]. Credit Bond Secondary Market - The trading volume of the bond secondary market reached 8.715913 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.82 billion yuan from the previous period, indicating increased trading activity. Bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping to 1.84%. Most credit spreads of AAA - rated bonds narrowed, and the rating spreads fluctuated [36][38][43].

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Group 1: Economic Outlook for 2026 - In 2026, China's economic policies will focus on releasing consumption potential, particularly in service consumption, durable goods renewal, and new consumption scenarios [1][4] - The core contradiction restricting consumer spending is the cautious expectations under medium to long-term uncertainties, rather than just insufficient current income [5] - The monetary policy is expected to shift from total easing to structural optimization, with the People's Bank of China likely to implement more targeted measures to guide funds to key sectors of the economy [6] Group 2: Currency and Debt Market Insights - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by trade surplus resilience and improved capital flow structure, despite uncertainties from US-China interest rate differentials and geopolitical factors [7] - Long-term bond yields are anticipated to experience a phase of decline in 2026, influenced by fiscal expansion and the central bank's supportive monetary policy, although short-term market disturbances may persist [8] Group 3: Internal and External Economic Strategies - Strengthening "internal circulation" does not imply weakening external openness; instead, it aims to enhance the economy's autonomy and resilience [10] - Coordinated efforts between expanding domestic demand and promoting high-level institutional openness are essential for stabilizing foreign trade and investment expectations while responding to external shocks [10]

地产和消费的进一步政策，可能要经过上半年的演绎之后，才会相机抉择。 中央经济工作会议定调是比较温和的托底而非强刺激，更多是对 2025 年已有政策的延续，没有较大的 调整转向。 政策基调是稳妥布局、渐进推进，想要稳住目前的增长水平、部分减轻通缩压力，但没有体现出对实现 再通胀、打破通缩循环进行强刺激或较大路径调整的诉求。 考虑到这些因素，我们对 2026 年的增长，特别是名义 GDP 增长的预期，还是保持在大概 4% 出头的名 义 GDP 增速，这比市场的一致预期更保守一点。 对于明年的财政政策、货币政策、房地产和消费政策而言：财政尽管总量上比较温和，但可能会前置到 一季度和上半年，用基建投资作为抓手；货币政策真正降息降准空间不是特别大；地产的进一步扶持政 策和消费的进一步刺激政策，可能要靠形势的演绎，也就是形势比人强，要经过上半年的演绎之后，政 策才会相机抉择。 特别是中国占全球出口市场的份额已经15%，未来五年有望再上层楼，达到16%~17%。也就是说中国 出口增速依然会高于全球贸易增长，会得到更多的市场份额。 为什么去中国化不会使得中国份额下降？总体而言，这里面有很多所谓的贸易转移，还是中国企业走向 了 ...

中央经济工作会议强调，2026年我国将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 消费活力如何进一步激发？货币政策有何发力空间？人民币汇率怎么走？这些都是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，也是监管的必答题。围 绕上述问题，北京商报记者专访了广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平。 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 全球经济在波动中前行，中国金融市场在多重政策合力下展现出新的韧性与活力。人民银行延续流动性宽松的基调，通过降准、降息等工具为 经济修复提供支持，货币政策与财政政策协调配合，金融"五篇大文章"系统推进，一系列举措旨在打通经济循环、激发内需潜力、优化金融供 给。 2026年我国将扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培育壮大新的消费增长点，积极打造消费新场景，把扩大消费与因地制宜发展新质生产力结合起 来。一是深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。优化"两新"政策实施，"国补"额度有望在2025年基础上适度 ...

编者按： "十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求明年金融总 量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。社会融资规模、广义货币供应量（M2）是观测金融总 量的主要指标，也是当前我国货币政策主要的中间变量。尽管近年来央行多次强调将不断优化货币政策 中间变量，淡化对数量目标的关注，把金融总量更多作为观测性、参考性、预期性指标，但短期看，推 动社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，依然是观测金融支持实体 经济是否"给力"的重要参考。 今年以来，社会融资规模、货币供应量增速水平始终高于名义经济增速，明年仍有基础继续保持平稳增 长。基础来自哪里？来自继续实施更加积极的财政政策，来自推动投资止跌回稳，来自居民消费需求持 续恢复，来自直接融资市场迅速发展。 货币政策工具也不只是降准降息，近年来货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋 合理。长期有降准、国债买卖工具，中期有中期借贷便利（MLF）、买断式逆回购操作等工具，短期 有公开市场7天期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购等工具。鉴于新的一年国债、地方政府专项债券等政府 债券将保持较大发行规模，央 ...