Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3557.1 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and increased investor risk aversion, with a notable 2.86% increase last week and over 5% for the month of August, marking the best monthly performance since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, the COMEX gold futures price peaked at $3557.1 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - The gold price has seen a cumulative increase of over 5% in August, the best monthly performance since April [1] - The gold stocks ETF fund has experienced a 12.91% increase over the past week, ranking it in the top 1/6 of comparable funds [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with many believing that reaching $4000 per ounce next year is feasible [1] - Citic Securities' report indicates that the core PCE inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve has shown a moderate increase, stabilizing market expectations for a rate cut in September [1] Group 3: ETF Fund Performance - The gold stocks ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 41.73 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong market interest [2] - The fund's one-year net value has increased by 56.28%, with a historical holding period showing a 100% probability of profit [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio stands at 1.51, ranking it in the top 2/6 of comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] Group 4: Index Composition - The China Securities Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 66.52% of the total, with major companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold leading the list [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Gold ETF fund indicates a strong upward trend, driven by market reactions to political events and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the Gold ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 82.22% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2]. - The fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and a maximum cumulative gain of 16.53% [2]. - The fund's performance ratio shows that it has had 74 months of gains compared to 58 months of losses, with an average monthly return of 3.21% and an annual profit percentage of 80.00% [2]. - The fund has a 100% probability of profit for investors holding it for three years [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Gold ETF fund has experienced a 0.66% increase as of September 2, 2025, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 7.68 yuan [1]. - The fund's trading volume reached 3.08 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06% [1]. - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 87%, which enhances the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [1]. Group 3: Risk and Management - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [5]. - The tracking error for the fund over the past month is 0.002%, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5]. - The fund has a year-to-date relative drawdown of 0.50% as of September 1, 2025 [4].

Group 1 - Domestic futures market shows mixed performance with polysilicon rising nearly 5% and low-sulfur fuel oil and silver increasing over 2% [2] - Lithium carbonate and caustic soda have seen declines exceeding 1%, while styrene and ethylene glycol are down nearly 1% [2] - Gold prices have surged, with international gold prices increasing by 2.86% last week and over 5% for the month of August, marking the best monthly performance since April [3] Group 2 - The market is anticipating upcoming U.S. labor data, including JOLTS job openings and ADP non-farm payroll data, which may influence expectations for the non-farm payroll report [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish signals have raised expectations for a rate cut in September to over 90%, contributing to a weaker dollar index [4] - Silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, approaching historical highs, indicating a positive outlook for precious metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by macroeconomic policy expectations, leading to a significant rise in precious metal futures, particularly silver [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, enhancing the appeal of gold and silver as non-yielding assets [1] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to lower interest rates, further boosting investment attractiveness in precious metals [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Factors - Recent court rulings regarding tariffs imposed during the Trump administration have heightened uncertainty in the trade environment and economic outlook, contributing to increased risk aversion in the market [1] - The ongoing fallout from Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, further fueling risk aversion and benefiting precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Price Movements and Projections - On September 1, gold prices surged, reaching a record high of $3557.1 per ounce during trading, closing at $3545.8 per ounce, marking a 0.84% increase [2] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.98%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 7.85% [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold could target $3900-$4000 per ounce, while silver may challenge historical highs of $49-$50 per ounce [1]

科斯塔表示，欧盟不欢迎关税，美国必须明白，欧盟将始终捍卫其主权及其公民和企业的利益。 早上好！先来看重要资讯。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.4%，降息25个基点的概率为89.6%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 47.9%。 欧洲理事会主席：欧盟不欢迎关税将始终捍卫主权及公民和企业利益 据央视报道，欧洲理事会主席科斯塔当地时间9月1日在讲话中承认，许多欧洲人感到沮丧，认为欧盟在 与美国的贸易中以及乌克兰问题上过于被动。 周一，贵金属市场大放异彩。COMEX黄金、白银期货价格均创历史新高，其中，COMEX黄金盘中最 高价达3557.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银盘中最高价触及41.64美元/盎司。国内方面，截至收盘，沪金主 力2510合约报收于800.56元/克，涨幅为2.08%；沪银主力2510合约报收于9775元/千克，涨幅达4.16%， 创上市以来新高。 科斯塔同时表示，欧盟正在全球范围内建立更强大的贸易和工业伙伴关系，这不仅是为了促进贸易，也 是为了提高可预测性和弹性，减少战略依赖。 德国防长驳斥 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.6% [1] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 4.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 47.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 47.9% [1] Group 2: European Union Trade Relations - The President of the European Council, Costa, stated that the EU does not welcome tariffs and will defend its sovereignty and the interests of its citizens and businesses [2] - Costa acknowledged that many Europeans feel frustrated with the EU's passive stance in trade with the U.S. and the Ukraine issue [2] - The EU is working to establish stronger global trade and industrial partnerships to enhance predictability and resilience, reducing strategic dependencies [2] Group 3: Military and Geopolitical Tensions - German Defense Minister Pistorius refuted EU Commission President von der Leyen's claims about deploying European troops to Ukraine, stating she lacks the authority to discuss such matters [3] - The German government has remained largely silent on discussions regarding sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, deeming it "premature" [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro claimed that Venezuela faces the greatest threat in a century from U.S. military presence, with significant naval deployments in the Caribbean [4] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,557.1 per ounce and silver at $41.64 per ounce [5] - The surge in precious metals prices is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and heightened risk aversion in the market [5][6] - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand and a persistent supply deficit, particularly in solar energy and electronics [6][8] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The core PCE index in the U.S. has shown a continuous rise, and the second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [7] - The demand for gold remains strong despite increased mining supply, while central banks continue to maintain a steady net purchase of gold [8] - The outlook for precious metals prices remains bullish, with potential further increases if U.S. economic data shows a moderate decline and the Fed proceeds with rate cuts [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a high of $3486, the highest since April, driven by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 87% probability according to CME tools [1][2] - The gold market is influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations, with inflation remaining sticky as the July PCE index year-on-year was at 2.6% and core PCE slightly increased to 2.9% [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by macroeconomic easing expectations and risk aversion, with a weak dollar and global uncertainties contributing to the conditions for gold to challenge historical highs [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the $3440 resistance level, opening new upward potential, although short-term adjustments may occur around the psychological barrier of $3500 [2][4] - The weekly and daily charts show a positive trend for gold, with short-term support levels at $3463 and $3457, while the focus remains on potential upward movements towards historical highs [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has strongly broken through recent levels. The main drivers include the continuous strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a rate cut in September becoming the market's baseline scenario. If the subsequent US non - farm data shows weakness, there is a possibility of three rate cuts within the year. Historically, precious metal prices tend to be relatively strong when rate - cut expectations rise [2]. - Trump's continuous pressure on Fed officials threatens the Fed's policy independence, boosting safe - haven sentiment and gold prices. Silver, as a high - beta variety, follows gold's upward movement. Also, the gold - silver ratio is above the historical central level, with room for further repair, potentially pulling up the silver price [2]. - In the previous months, gold was in a range - bound state due to frequent disturbances from tariff and inflation expectations. Recently, the market's rate - cut expectations have been gradually consolidated, and trading sentiment has turned optimistic [2]. - Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the US August PMI and non - farm employment data. If the data deviates from expectations, there may be a phase - wise correction, but a rate cut in September is almost a "fact", and the possibility of a significant decline is low unless the employment data is significantly more optimistic than expected. Technically, both gold and silver are in the overbought zone, with a short - term adjustment need [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 800.56 yuan/gram, up 15.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9775 yuan/kilogram, up 389 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 140,691 lots, up 4,000 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 294,815 lots, up 31,945 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 164,870 lots, up 3,137 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 123,108 lots, up 8,690 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold warehouse receipts were 39,744 kilograms, up 120 kilograms; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,207,227 kilograms, up 11,231 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 795.38 yuan/gram, up 2.07 yuan; the silver spot price was 9,656 yuan/kilogram, up 291 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.18 yuan/gram, down 0.05 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 119 yuan/kilogram, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 214,311 contracts, up 1,721 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 46,466 contracts, down 83 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 8.21%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.94%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 16.28%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump's global tariff policy and the prosecution for the removal of Fed Governor Cook are facing a final ruling by the US Supreme Court [2]. - Japan and the US are discussing special measures to reduce the burden of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan and a presidential order to lower auto tariffs [2]. - Despite the US Court of Appeals ruling most of Trump's tariffs illegal, the Trump administration continues trade negotiations [2]. - The market is focused on the upcoming US non - farm payroll data, which may determine the expected scale of the Fed's interest - rate cut later this month [2]. - The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.3% month - on - month [2]. - According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.4%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.6%, a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut is 45.8%, and a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 48.6% [2]. 3.6 Price Ranges to Watch - Shanghai Gold 2510 contract: 750 - 850 yuan/gram; Shanghai Silver 2510 contract: 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/kilogram [2]. - London gold price: 3,450 - 3,550 US dollars/ounce; London silver price: 39 - 41 US dollars/ounce [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a stage of volatile upward movement, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The reasons are as follows: in terms of the risk - aversion logic, the impact of tariffs is still fluctuating in the short term, and there is no significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, so the long - term risk - aversion logic still exists; in terms of the investment logic, the central bank adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August annual meeting, greatly increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, with an expected interest rate cut of 50 - 75bp within the year, and the expected decline in interest rates will drive up the gold price [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In August, the gold price remained in a high - level volatile range, with the COMEX gold price fluctuating around $3380 - 3480 per ounce. The reasons for the price movement include high - level uncertainty in US tariff disputes in August and the lack of obvious progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, which maintained long - term risk - aversion sentiment; the adjustment of the monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August increased the expectation of an interest rate cut, which may continue to drive up the gold price [7][8]. 2. Financial Attributes - The core of the financial attributes is the US Treasury real interest rate (represented by the ITIPS yield), and historical data shows an obvious negative correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate. It is mainly affected by US economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, with monetary policy being the most direct influencing factor in the short to medium term [15]. - The US economic situation: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious recovery from the first quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the current US economic growth rate is still low. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48%, still below the boom - bust line, and new orders were also below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing's prosperity after the suspension of interest rate cuts. In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021. In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, remaining flat with the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation; it rose 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous value of 0.3% [19][22][26]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has risen to about 85%, mainly because the Federal Reserve adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August central bank annual meeting. There is a high probability of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The previous June dot - plot showed that Federal Reserve officials thought there would be 2 interest rate cuts within the year, but there were differences [33][35][38]. 3. Monetary Attributes - In terms of monetary attributes, the impact of US dollar credit and other risk events is mainly considered. In August, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 97 - 98 level. With Powell's dovish statement at the August central bank annual meeting and Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve Council, the US dollar index declined slightly in late August [40][44]. - The GPR risk indicator shows that the geopolitical risk level in the US declined in August compared with the previous two months, mainly due to the smooth progress of US tariff negotiations. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations are ongoing, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains relatively tense [48]. 4. Commodity Attributes - In the long run, the supply of gold is sufficient as it is relatively stable. From 2023 - 2024, the global gold supply will continue to increase steadily. However, the domestic gold production may continue to decline year by year due to factors such as the decline in gold grades in mining areas and the pressure of environmental protection expenditures. In terms of demand, jewelry demand will drive the overall demand to pick up [51]. Hedging Strategies for Different Participants - For mining enterprises, smelting enterprises, and terminal consumers with inventory who are worried about the decline in the gold price, short - term negative factors suggest shorting gold futures for hedging, with the contract being au251. For smelting enterprises and terminal consumers who are purchasing raw materials and worried about the rise in the gold price, direct long - buying of gold futures is recommended, also with the contract au251 [2][4]. Key Data to Watch - The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the August US economic data [2].

转自：新华财经 •海通期货：通胀风险难以消退 支撑黄金长期牛市延续 •金瑞期货：避险情绪升温 贵金属价格大涨 新湖期货表示，黄金上涨一方面是受益于市场对美联储年内降息预期的回升，另一方面来自于市场对美 联储独立性的担忧使得美元指数承压。特朗普罢免美联储理事库克事件持续发酵，在上周五的听证上， 法官未能立即裁决，并要求库克的律师提交补充意见，详细阐述解职行为违法的理由。库克暂时继续留 任，她仍将参加9月的利率决策会议。短期来看，特朗普解雇美联储理事库克的决定是他上任以来对美 联储的第四次攻击，美联储的独立性堪忧，疲弱的美元将对金价形成一定支撑。中长期来看，央行购金 具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 关注本周美国8月非农就业数据。 资产战略国际（Asset Strategies International）总裁兼首席运营官Rich Checkan表示，目前投资者几乎确 信美联储将在9月的会议上降息，这有望成为金价进一步上涨的驱动。他认为，尽管金价突破3400美元 阻力位之后，获利回吐的时机可能已经成熟，但考虑到美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库存的事件让投 资 ...