合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-12 涨，注意风险控制。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 370 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11820 | | 25672 | 1552 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -145 | | 7210 | -60 ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月12日） 1. 上海航运交易所数据显示，截至5月9日，上海出口集装箱运价指数（综合指数）报1345.17点，与上 期相比涨4.2 4点。中国出口集装箱运价综合指数报1106.38点，与上期相比跌1.3%。 2. Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率84.62%，环比上周增加0.29个百分点，同比去年增加3.12个百分 点；高炉炼铁产能利用率92.09%，环比上周增加0.09个百分点，同比去年增加4.42个百分点；钢厂盈利 率58.87%，环比上周增加2.59个百分点，同比去年增加6.92个百分点；日均铁水产量245.64万吨，环比 上周增加0.22万吨。 3. Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存总量14238.71万吨，环比下降63.77万吨；日均疏港量315.21万 吨，降16.63万吨；在港船舶数量79条，降9条。 4. 海关总署等6部门调整海关特殊监管区域、保税监管场所和区外加工贸易有关管理措施，其中提到， 境外进口的四类措施商品不进入专用账册的，不得保税。 对海关特殊监管区域内企业利用海关监管期 限内的免税设备承接区外企业提供的玉米、小麦、大米、棉 ...

宏观层面，央行宣布实施降准降息及下调公积金利率三大举措，但对需求端实际提振有限，玻璃行业仍 面对过剩压力。供应端继续收缩，本周开工率75.24%，环比减少0.22%，产能利用率78.02%，环比减少 0.41个百分点，周产量也回落至109.19万吨，为2个月最低。需求端起色缓慢，加工厂倾向于轻仓运行， 中游较大库存的压制下，一定程度上使得短期反弹被压制。本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存环增近 4%或257.1万重箱至6756重箱，同比增加10.38%。总之，供应端压力缓慢减弱，但需求端起色缓慢，对 行业运行仍存负反馈，意味着玻璃在未来将继续面临过剩的压力，市场预期偏悲观。关注全球市场风险 偏好、下游产销情况。【策略推荐】:FG关注【1040，1070】，5日均线承压。 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 玻璃市场预期偏悲观 新世纪期货 玻璃基本面缺乏推涨动力 5月9日盘中，玻璃期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至1042.00元。截止发稿，玻璃主力合约报1045.00 元，跌幅0.95%。 玻璃期货主力跌近1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 中辉期货：玻璃市场预期偏悲观 新世纪期货：玻璃基本面缺乏推涨动力 近期部分 ...

本报告导读： 公司生猪养殖业务持续精进，养殖成本不断下降。屠宰业务产能利用率显著提升，盈利能力改善。持续 推进高质量发展。 投资要点： 投资建议：维持"增持"评级，目标价50.8 元。预测 2025-2027 年公司 EPS 分别为2.54/4.81/6.77 元。公司 生猪出栏量持续增长，屠宰业务盈利能力改善。对比可比公司，我们认为牧原股份稳居行业龙头地位， 兼具成长与价值属性，给予公司2025 年20x 估值，对应目标价50.8 元。 公司发布25 年一季报：公司25Q1 实现营收360.6 亿元，同比+37.26%；归母净利润为44.9 亿元，同比扭 亏；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为75.1 亿元，同比+48.1%。 生猪养殖业务持续精进。公司25Q1 实现生猪出栏2265.8 万头（同比+41.5%），其中商品猪/仔猪/种猪 分别出栏1839.5/414.9/11.3 万头。 公司3 月生猪养殖完全成本已降至12.5 元/kg，持续优化。我们认为，随着公司持续发力健康管理、种 猪育种等，公司各项生产指标均仍将提升；同时公司通过推广优秀场线管理经验，有望不断改善相对落 后场线的成绩，从而进一步降低养殖成 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，短期产能利用率有望逐步回升。br2506合约短线建议在11000-11800区间交易。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) -5 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11370 | 24034 | -1070 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日 ...

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7029 | 34 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6952 | 53 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7115 | 10 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7029 | 34 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 321988 | 48956 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 429904 | -14290 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 308467 | -6432 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 331941 | -4501 | | | 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | -23474 | -1931 仓单数量:聚丙烯PP(日,手) | 3946 | -423 | | 现货市场 | PP(纤维/注塑):CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美 | 924 | PP ...

环比明显下降，主要因假期到来部分企业逐步进入检修或降负运行阶段，进而拖拽企业产能利用率下行， 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 节后产能利用率有望逐步回升。ru2509合约短线建议在14500-15300区间交易，nr2506合约短线建议在124 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 50-13000区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪 ...

[Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 25.63 本报告导读： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.07 出货量高增，高端化和国际化进展喜人 国轩高科(002074) | 国轩高科(002074) | | --- | 2024 年及 2025Q1 国轩高科业绩符合预期，出货量高增，同时，随着产品结构往高 端化发展，以及国际化不断深入，我们认为，未来，公司或将受益于产能利用率提 高以及产品结构升级带来的盈利能力改善。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 31,605 | 35,392 | 41,999 | 48,933 | 57,802 | | (+/-)% | 37.1% | 12.0% | 18.7% | 16.5% | 18.1% | | 净利润（归母） | 939 | 1,207 | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved net sales of $702 million, reflecting a 5% organic volume growth driven by construction services, steel conduit, metal framing, and cable management products [6][11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $116 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding sequentially to 16.6% from 15% in the previous quarter [11] - Adjusted EPS was reported at $2.04, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic volumes increased by 5% compared to a 1% decline in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year [11] - Average selling prices declined by 17% year-over-year, primarily due to decreases in PVC and steel conduit products, although there was sequential pricing improvement for steel conduit [12][16] - The Electrical Cable and Flexible Conduit category grew year-to-date by low single digits, while metal framing, cable management, and construction services saw high single-digit growth [13][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Dodge Momentum Index indicated a slowdown in planning activity across several non-residential categories [10] - Despite year-to-date increases in construction starts and planning activities, there are indications of potential slower activity moving forward [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a balanced capital deployment model, focusing on returning cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends while investing in growth initiatives [18][25] - The management highlighted the importance of domestic manufacturing and the ability to serve customers effectively in the evolving electrical industry [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about demand for U.S.-made steel conduit in 2025, despite uncertainties related to tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [9][20] - The company is maintaining its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $375 million to $425 million and adjusted EPS between $5.75 and $6.85 [21][10] Other Important Information - An impairment charge of $50 million was announced for certain long-lived assets related to HDP pipe and conduit products due to competition from emerging technologies [8][67] - A new five-year labor agreement was ratified with the United Steel Workers at the Harvey, Illinois facility, which is expected to enhance productivity [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for PVC conduits for the remainder of the year - Management indicated that pricing has continued to decline, but they are still on track with previous guidance regarding PVC conduit pricing [30] Question: Market share for PVC conduit - Management believes they remain a leader in the PVC conduit market, although imports have been increasing [31][32] Question: Recent import levels and potential pricing upside - Management noted that PVC imports have increased significantly year-over-year, but the future trajectory is uncertain due to tariffs [40][41] Question: Net tariff benefit in updated fiscal guidance - Management suggested that a 2% to 3% reduction in volume could be offset by tariff increases, indicating a net positive for shareholders [61] Question: Update on steel conduit imports from Mexico - Management confirmed that while there has been a reduction in imports, they do not expect a complete halt due to the 25% tariff [64][65] Question: Impairment of HD PVC and competitive changes - The impairment was influenced by competition from fiber optic technologies and the administration's plans to increase funding for satellite internet [66][69] Question: Direction from the administration on tariffs - Management stated they have not received specific guidance from the administration regarding tariffs or the BEAD program [73] Question: Cadence of demand for products - Management reported that demand has improved month-over-month, with customers remaining cautiously optimistic [94] Question: Construction services opportunity - Management indicated that data centers are expected to be a significant portion of construction services moving forward [96][98] Question: Pricing assumptions for FY 2025 - Management has not changed pricing assumptions despite tariff impacts, indicating that overall price versus cost dynamics remain within expected ranges [99][102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved net sales of $702 million, reflecting a 5% organic volume growth driven by construction services, steel conduit, metal framing, and cable management products [6][11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $116 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding sequentially to 16.6% from 15% in the previous quarter [11] - Adjusted EPS was reported at $2.04, down from $2.4 year-over-year [6][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic volumes increased by 5% compared to a 1% decline in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year [11] - Average selling prices declined by 17% year-over-year, primarily due to decreases in PVC and steel conduit products, although there was sequential pricing improvement for steel conduit [11][12] - The Electrical Cable and Flexible Conduit category grew year-to-date by low single digits, while metal framing, cable management, and construction services saw high single-digit growth [13][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Dodge Momentum Index indicated a slowdown in planning activity across several non-residential categories [10] - Despite year-to-date increases in construction starts and planning activities, there are indications of potential slower activity moving forward [19] - The company remains optimistic about demand for U.S.-made steel conduit in 2025, despite uncertainties regarding tariffs and their economic impact [9][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maximizing shareholder value through strategic asset management, including a recent divestiture of its Northwest Polymers recycling business [6][7] - A new five-year labor agreement was ratified with the United Steel Workers, enhancing productivity and customer service capabilities [7] - The company is committed to a balanced capital deployment model, emphasizing cash returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [16][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding future demand, noting that while the second quarter exceeded expectations, growth in the Construction Services business is expected to moderate in the second half of the year [18][20] - The company maintains its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $375 million to $425 million and adjusted EPS between $5.75 and $6.85 [20] - Management highlighted the challenges posed by tariffs and the unpredictability of the macroeconomic environment, which could impact volume expectations [19][20] Other Important Information - An impairment charge of $50 million was recorded for certain long-lived assets related to HDP pipe and conduit products due to competitive technologies and delays in government funding [8][66] - The company has repurchased approximately $50 million in shares during the second quarter and increased its dividend to $0.33 per share [7][8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for PVC conduits for the balance of the year - Management indicated that pricing has continued to decline but remains aligned with previous guidance, making it difficult to predict future pricing accurately [29] Question: Market share for PVC conduit - Management believes Atkore remains a leader in the PVC conduit market, despite increasing imports [30][31] Question: Import levels and potential pricing upside - Management noted that PVC imports are up solid double digits year-over-year, but future trends are uncertain due to tariffs and market dynamics [38][39] Question: Net tariff benefit in updated fiscal guidance - Management suggested that a 2% to 3% reduction in volume could be offset by tariff increases, indicating a net positive for shareholders [59] Question: Update on steel conduit imports from Mexico - Management confirmed that while there has been a reduction in imports, they have not completely stopped, and the 25% tariff will impact pricing strategies [61][63] Question: Impairment of HD PVC and competitive changes - The impairment was influenced by emerging technologies in fiber optics and the administration's plans to increase funding for satellite internet [66][67] Question: Direction from the administration on tariffs - Management stated there has been no concrete direction from the administration regarding tariffs, leading to a prudent decision to take the impairment charge [72][75] Question: Profitability of the torque tube business without IRA support - Management confirmed that the torque tube business remains profitable even without IRA support, although the IRA has driven additional demand [83][86] Question: Cadence of demand for products - Management reported that demand has improved month-over-month, with cautious optimism from customers regarding future volumes [93][94] Question: Construction services opportunity and data centers - Management indicated that data centers are expected to become the largest portion of construction services moving forward, alongside chip manufacturing [95][96]