Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：盛开/曹冬青 本报告导读： Q2 制造业务收入稳健增长，毛利率环比Q1 改善，H2 订单能见度有限，但毛利率预计好于 H1；零售业 务 Q2承压，国内促销环境浓，预计 H2仍面临压力。 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，关税影响超预期 量价拆分来看，出货量1.27 亿双，同比增长5.0%（Q1/Q2 产能利用率分别为91%/95%），ASP 20.61 美 元，同比增长3.2%。H1 毛利率为17.7%，同比下降1.4pct（Q1/Q2 分别为17.67%/17.75%，分别同 比-2.6/+1.9pct），主要由于各厂区的产能负载不均，部分产线生产效率未达设定标准，叠加各地新增人 力及薪资上涨推高成本。 投资要点： 零售业务：Q2 收入、毛利率承压。2025H1 零售业务收入为12.6 亿美元，同比下降8.6%（Q1/Q2 分 别-6.5%/-11.1%），其中：实体店方面各地客流波动，线下直营及加盟渠道收入较2024 年同期显著下 滑；全渠道同比增长16%，直播销售翻倍增长。H1 毛利率为33.5%，同比下降0.7pct（Q1/Q2 分 别-0.5/-0.9pct），主因行业促销氛围 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 4.06 billion USD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million USD, down 7.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The manufacturing business reported revenue of 2.80 billion USD, up 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million USD, down 0.2% year-on-year. Conversely, the retail segment, represented by Bao Sheng International, saw revenue of 1.26 billion USD, down 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30 million USD, down 44.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.4 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 48% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment showed robust growth with a Q2 revenue of 1.47 billion USD, up 6.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million USD, up 29.2% year-on-year. The output volume increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the average selling price rose by 3.9% year-on-year [7]. - The capacity utilization rate improved to 95%, although there were regional disparities in capacity load and rising labor costs, leading to a slight decrease in gross margin [7]. Retail Business - The retail segment faced challenges with Bao Sheng International reporting a Q2 revenue decline of 11.1% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 69.2% year-on-year. The company closed 40 stores in H1 2025, with same-store sales declining significantly [7]. - Despite a slight improvement in discount rates, the increase in selling, general and administrative expenses led to a decrease in net profit margin [7]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing business is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of production capacity in Indonesia and new capacity in India, which may help address regional capacity imbalances [7]. - The retail business is under pressure in the short term, but a multi-channel operation and diversified brand strategy may drive future growth [7]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 360 million USD, 400 million USD, and 450 million USD, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply of pure benzene is expected to increase on a month - on - month basis, but the small number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the domestic increase. Consumption of pure benzene is likely to rise on a month - on - month basis as the overhaul devices of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene restart intensively. In the long - term, there is an improving trend in the supply - demand of pure benzene, and the spot supply - demand gap may gradually shrink. Recently, international oil prices are weakly volatile, and technically, BZ2603 should focus on the support around 6100 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene was 6179 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the settlement price was 6210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The trading volume was 2318 lots, and the open interest was 14833 lots. The mainstream prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets varied, with some rising and some falling [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB intermediate price was 734 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; the CFR intermediate price in China was 750.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 66.97 dollars/barrel, down 0.64 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 dollars/ton, down 6.5 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.6 tons, up 1.03 tons. The port inventory was 16.3 tons, down 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products of pure benzene varied. For example, the operating rate of styrene was 77.73%, down 1.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 576 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 11th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 14.6 tons, down 10.43% from the previous period. BZ2603 fell 1.14% to close at 6179 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.21% to 78.79%, while that of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 3.29% to 59.66%. The weighted operating rate of downstream products of pure benzene decreased by 1.22% to 76.74%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 10.43% to 14.6 tons [2].

8月14日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，PTA期货主力合约开盘报4692.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行，早盘收跌2.92%；截至发稿，PTA主力最高触及4704.00元，下方探低4630.00元，跌幅达1.36% 附近。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PTA后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 宁证期货指出，PTA开工率回升，且虹港石化3期250万吨装置投产和7月三房巷（600370）320万吨装置 新产能投放，PTA供应端存在一定压力。下游8-9月为传统纺织旺季，随着秋冬订单集中下达，聚酯开 工率或回升至90%附近，但聚酯利润不佳，长丝FDY、瓶片、短纤产品现金流压缩严重，可能会影响后 续聚酯企业的生产积极性。PTA跟随原油震荡偏弱运行。 中财期货指出，PTA产能利用率较上一工作日+3.05%至76.70%，威联、嘉兴重启，海南检修。美国7月 CPI低于预期，9月降息预期强化，美元强势压制下油价下行，PX、PTA偏弱运行，下游聚酯需求弱现 实持续影响，聚酯产销维持淡季水平。PTA供需预计较上周有所好转，平衡表偏去库。聚酯样本企业综 合产销率42.94%，较上期下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Uni-President China (00220) reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding market expectations, despite rising palm oil prices and competitive pressures [1] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 10.6% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 33.2%, surpassing Goldman Sachs' forecasts by 8.5% and 27.4% respectively [1] - The EBIT for the food business grew by 32% year-on-year, significantly exceeding Goldman Sachs' prediction by 45% [1] Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecasts, lowering beverage sales and EBIT margin predictions by 2.4% and 0.3 percentage points, while increasing instant noodle EBIT margin forecasts by 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points due to improved sales momentum and product mix [1] - Despite a solid performance in the first half of 2025, the company faces challenges such as intensified market competition and a lack of price increase plans, which may limit growth and profit margin potential [1] Strategic Outlook - The management reiterated a sales growth target of 6% to 8% for the year, emphasizing long-term brand investment over short-term price promotions [1] - New uncertainties are emerging, particularly regarding the scale and duration of subsidies from food delivery platforms, which have begun to disrupt channel dynamics since April [1]

Core Viewpoint - Uni-President China (00220) reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding market expectations, leading to a notable increase in stock price [1] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 10.6% and 33.2% year-on-year, surpassing Goldman Sachs' forecasts by 8.5% and 27.4% respectively [1] - The EBIT for the food business rose by 32% year-on-year, significantly exceeding Goldman Sachs' prediction by 45% [1] Market Dynamics - Despite rising palm oil prices, the food business maintained a high capacity utilization rate [1] - Competition in the beverage sector remains intense, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its sales and EBIT margin forecasts by 2.4% and 0.3 percentage points [1] Strategic Outlook - The company has reiterated its sales growth target of 6% to 8% for the year, emphasizing long-term brand investment over short-term price promotions [1] - However, uncertainties are emerging, particularly regarding the scale and duration of subsidies from food delivery platforms, which have begun to disrupt channel dynamics since April [1] Analyst Perspectives - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for instant noodle EBIT margins upward by 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points, reflecting improved sales momentum and a strengthened product mix [1] - In contrast, China Merchants Securities expressed concerns about limited growth and profit margin upside due to the absence of price increase plans and intensified promotional efforts in core categories like sugar-free tea [1]

Core Viewpoints - Company achieved sales revenue of $2.209 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.2% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.7%, exceeding guidance [4] - The gross margin was 20.4%, up 6.4 percentage points year-over-year but down 2.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing guidance [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $132 million, down 19.5% year-over-year and 29.5% quarter-over-quarter [4] - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to grow by 5%-7% quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin of 18%-20% [4] Production Capacity Utilization - In Q2 2025, production capacity utilization increased by 2.9 percentage points to 92.5%, the highest since Q3 2022 [5] - The company shipped 2.39 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, a year-over-year increase of 13.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.3% [5] - The average price of 8-inch wafers decreased to $874, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 6% [5] Revenue by Application - Revenue from industrial and automotive applications saw the highest growth rates, with automotive electronics shipments increasing by 20% quarter-over-quarter [6] - Year-over-year growth rates for industrial and automotive applications were 54.8% and 36.3%, respectively, while smartphone and wearable devices saw declines of 6.8% and 11.8% [6] - In Q2 2025, 84.1% of revenue came from China, 12.9% from the US, and 3.0% from the Eurasian region [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in 2Q25, exceeding previous guidance for both revenue and gross margin, with expectations for steady growth in 3Q25 [4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2Q25, the company achieved sales revenue of $566.1 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.6%. The gross margin was 10.9%, up 0.4 percentage points year-over-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the prior guidance of $550-570 million in revenue and 7%-9% gross margin [5]. - For 3Q25, the company anticipates sales revenue of approximately $620-640 million and a gross margin of around 10%-12% [5]. Capacity Utilization - As of the end of 2Q25, the company's monthly capacity, equivalent to 8-inch wafers, was 447,000 pieces, reflecting an 18.0% year-over-year increase and an 8.2% quarter-over-quarter increase. The capacity utilization rate was 108.3%, up 10.4 percentage points year-over-year and 5.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, indicating a stable upward trend [6]. - The company has maintained full capacity utilization for multiple quarters, with stable release of 12-inch capacity contributing to revenue growth [6]. Market Demand - By end-market segmentation, revenue from consumer electronics, communications, and computers increased by 2.7%, 9.8%, and 2.8% quarter-over-quarter, respectively. Revenue from industrial and automotive sectors rose by 7.7% [7]. - Demand for analog and power management products continued to grow, with a year-over-year increase of 59.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.9%. The recovery in power device demand also showed a year-over-year growth of 9.4% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 2.4% [7]. Capital Expenditure - The company's capital expenditure in 2Q25 was $407.7 million, with $376 million allocated to Huahong Manufacturing, $17.6 million to Huahong Wuxi, and $13.7 million to Huahong 8-inch [8]. - The company plans for Fab 9 to reach full capacity by the first quarter of 2026, with a corresponding capacity of 60,000 pieces per month. The ramp-up of Fab 9's capacity is expected to accelerate, contributing to stable growth [8].

2025年第二季度，全国计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业单季度产能利用率为77.3%，单季度比上年 同期回升1.1个百分点；2025年上半年，全国计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业累计产能利用率为 76.1%，累计比上年同期回升0.6个百分点。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国通信设备行业市场行情监测及发展趋向研判报告》 数据来源：国家统计局 数据来源：国家统计局 ...