Core Viewpoint - 瑞泰新材 (301238) is focused on enhancing its production capacity utilization and optimizing its customer structure to strengthen its development momentum [1] Group 1 - The company encourages investors to monitor its periodic reports for information regarding production capacity utilization [1] - The company aims to actively explore and serve high-quality global customers, aligning with customer needs [1] - Continuous optimization of the customer structure is a priority for the company to improve production capacity utilization [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of butadiene rubber has slightly stronger support. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources have increased, but the spot resources remain tight. High - premium offers struggle to attract buyers, and private price - holding efforts also face difficulties in getting terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened [2]. - Tire enterprises' orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged overhauls and some have reduced production, dragging down the tire capacity utilization rate. As the production schedule of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue to restrict the increase in capacity utilization rate. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,450 - 10,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day; the position volume of the main contract is 72,012, an increase of 634 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,980 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 63.51 dollars/barrel, down 1.38 dollars; WTI crude oil is at 59.44 dollars/barrel, down 1.3 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; Naphtha CFR Japan is 573 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.56 million tons/week, up 0.03 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.02%, up 2.7 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 29,000 tons, down 800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, down 0.53 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.92%, up 4.07 percentage points; the weekly production profit is 636 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan; the social inventory is 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons; the trader's inventory is 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises' orders are insufficient, some sample enterprises have arranged overhauls, and some have reduced production, dragging down the sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Previously, most overhauled butadiene rubber devices have gradually restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the raw material buyers have actively followed up, the cost support for butadiene rubber has slightly strengthened, private price - holding efforts struggle to get terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened, and this week the production enterprises' inventory has increased while the trading enterprises' inventory has changed slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, raw material buyers have actively followed up, and after the restart of previously overhauled devices [2].

Core Insights - The company, Jiet Bio (688026.SH), has reported an overall capacity utilization rate of approximately 60% [1] - A new factory has partially commenced operations, but some equipment and production lines are still in the debugging phase, with full production dependent on order volume [1] - The company's main products include over 80 categories of biological laboratory consumables, such as cell culture and liquid handling products, which have a strong sales market [1]

Group 1: Production Capacity - The company has established a lithium iron phosphate production capacity of 225,000 tons, with 75,000 tons currently under construction [2] - The company plans to adjust production capacity based on industry trends and customer demand [2] Group 2: Competitive Strategy - The company ensures product competitiveness through technological innovation, customer collaboration, product layout, and economies of scale [2][3] - Continuous R&D investment enhances innovation capabilities and product performance, creating differentiated advantages [3] - The company is developing lithium manganese iron phosphate and solid-state battery cathode materials to meet diverse market needs [3] Group 3: Product Development - High-density lithium iron phosphate products have successfully entered mass production, catering to core customer applications [3] - The company will track technological iterations and market demand in the power and energy storage sectors to enrich its product matrix [3] Group 4: Capacity Utilization - Starting from Q4 2025, increased downstream demand will drive high capacity utilization rates [3] - The company aims to enhance capacity digestion through improved product competitiveness and collaboration with existing customers [3]

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, with a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of 0.80 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4082 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year new construction area of national real estate is -19.80% [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar at -0.94% and cement price index at -0.76%, while rubber increased by 3.14% [5] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.99 percentage points, while cement and asphalt decreased by 11.30 percentage points and increased by 1.0 percentage points, respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year completion area of commercial housing is -16.90% [6] - The weekly operating rate for flat glass is 75%, with glass and titanium dioxide prices remaining unchanged [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Weekly price changes for major bulk commodities include cold-rolled steel at -1.00%, copper at +1.11%, and aluminum at +1.44% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The spot price of oriented silicon steel has decreased by 23% year-to-date [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 25.47% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,890 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.44% and a calculated profit of 4,622 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [8] Price Comparison - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.01 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 110 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in Shanghai is 470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,094.03 points, with a month-on-month increase of 3.39% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.30 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being real estate at +2.70% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 44.37% and 91.89%, respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.56, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company,卓胜微, indicates that its overall gross margin is influenced by multiple factors including depreciation of its subsidiary, market competition, and changes in product structure [1] Group 1 - In Q3 2025, the impact of self-produced wafer costs on gross margin improved compared to Q2 [1] - The company expects that as the production capacity utilization of its subsidiary increases, the negative impact of self-produced wafer costs on overall gross margin will gradually diminish [1]

Group 1: Revenue Confirmation - Approximately 200 million yuan of completed products have not been recognized as revenue in Q3 due to customer reasons [2] - The company adheres to accounting standards for revenue recognition and will provide updates in the regular report for Q4 2025 [2] Group 2: Production Capacity - The production capacity utilization rates for domestic and Vietnam factories are currently unspecified, with inquiries about whether they are at full capacity [3] - The progress of the new factory construction is on track, with expectations for increased production capacity upon completion [3] Group 3: Order Status - The current order amount matches the 1.031 billion yuan contract liabilities disclosed in the Q3 report [3] - The company reports a stable overall operation and good order situation, with ongoing expansion projects [3]

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1020 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10505 | 50 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 72021 | -1785 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | -35 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10500 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10500 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Qilu Petrochemical's 360,000 - ton unit restarted, while LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Henan Lianchuang's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The start - up rate of pipes increased slightly, while that of profiles continued to decline, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly. Social inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory pressure remained high. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide, ethane, and vinyl chloride dropped, driving down the costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes. Due to the weak spot price of PVC, the losses of both processes deepened. This week, LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton unit will restart, and the impact of previously restarted units will expand, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and PVC generally maintains a high - start state. As the temperature drops, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. There is no specific implementation time for India's anti - dumping duty, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue. The price support of calcium carbide and ethylene at the cost end is limited. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,490 - 4,620 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan. The trading volume was 904,897 lots, an increase of 104,133 lots. The open interest was 1,462,731 lots, an increase of 107,190 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,060,264 lots, an increase of 63,708 lots; the short position was 1,318,874 lots, an increase of 98,864 lots; the net long position was - 258,610 lots, a decrease of 35,156 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,531.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,596.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,631.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 47,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the previous period. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the start - up rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96%. As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared with the previous week. As of November 13th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [2].

Core Viewpoint - SMIC reports a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply-constrained situation in its production lines [1] Group 1: Production and Demand - The company has a significant number of orders, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The guidance for Q4 does not show a substantial increase due to a severe shortage of memory components in the mobile market, which has resulted in rising prices [1] - Customers are cautious about future supply uncertainties, leading to a trend of increased inventory for memory components to ensure complete assembly of devices [1] Group 2: Impact on Business Operations - SMIC has taken on numerous urgent orders for analog and memory products, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCUs, and has postponed some non-urgent mobile orders to ensure timely delivery [1] - This shift has resulted in a temporary decrease in the proportion of mobile business [1] - The impact of memory supply issues is twofold: it boosts current orders but creates uncertainty for the upcoming year [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a supply gap, with expectations that high price levels will persist [1] - The verification cycles for NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and MCUs are lengthy, and the barriers to entry for new competitors are high, making it difficult for them to quickly replace existing suppliers [2]