数据公布后，美元指数小幅回落至98附近，连续第二个交易日走弱，市场对经济前景持谨慎态度。 从行业结构看，就业增长高度集中于医疗保健等非周期性行业，11月医疗保健行业新增就业4.6万个， 而联邦政府就业累计减少27.1万人，交通运输和仓储业自2月以来已累计裁员7.8万人，显示就业市场韧 性严重依赖少数板块支撑。地域分化同样明显，新泽西州和华盛顿州参保失业率达2.4%，罗德岛州和 西弗吉尼亚州初请人数增幅居前，区域经济差异加剧市场失衡。 市场目光将聚焦2026年1月9日发布的12月非农报告，以及后续通胀数据，这将成为美联储判断是否重启 降息的关键依据。此外，美联储主席人选更迭在即，特朗普政府正在筛选鲍威尔的继任者，新领导层的 政策倾向可能重塑2026年货币政策框架。 新华财经北京12月24日电 （王晓伟）美国劳工部数据显示，截至12月20日当周，季调后初请失业金人 数录得21.4万人，环比减少1万人，连续两周下降且显著低于市场预期的22.4万人，四周移动平均值同步 降至21.675万人，显示短期新裁员压力有所缓解。然而，反映就业市场深度的核心指标却亮起红灯：截 至12月13日当周，续请失业金人数增至192.3万人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surpassed the $4,500 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 70% since 2025, outperforming most global assets. The sustainability of this bullish trend in gold as 2026 approaches is questioned [2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current gold bull market is not limited to 2025, having started its upward cycle in 2016. Prior to 2025, gold prices rose for two consecutive years, with increases of 13.45% in 2023 and 27.39% in 2024 [2]. - In 2025, gold prices accelerated, breaking through significant thresholds of $3,000, $3,500, $4,000, and $4,500 within a year, marking the highest annual increase in years [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand for gold, significantly contributing to rising prices. The expectation of increasing global inflation, alongside the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, has positioned gold as a primary beneficiary [3]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding gold for 13 consecutive months. As of late November, China's gold reserves stood at approximately 74.12 million ounces, reflecting both asset allocation needs and strategic significance [4]. Group 3: Changes in Global Asset Allocation - The ongoing increase in gold holdings by major central banks indicates a profound shift in global asset allocation structures. As of the second quarter of 2025, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves was about 56.32%, continuing a downward trend, while gold's share was approximately 24% and on the rise [5]. - The decline in the dollar's dominance in foreign exchange reserves suggests a potential shift in the global monetary landscape, with the credibility of the dollar's credit system facing significant challenges [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Gold - Gold's strategic influence is notably increasing, underpinning the current bull market. The weakening of the dollar's credit system is a key factor driving gold's enhanced international status [7]. - Historical patterns indicate that gold bull markets typically last around ten years. The current bull market, which began in 2016, will reach a critical juncture in 2026, raising questions about whether it will mark a turning point [7].

Group 1 - The article provides an authoritative interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting discussions among top experts on current economic hotspots, policy directions, growth paths, and reform priorities for China's economic development from 2025 to 2026 [2][3] - Key speakers include prominent figures such as Liu Fengliang, Zou Jingxian, Wang Yiming, Mao Zhenhua, Shen Jianguang, Zhang Xiaojing, and Li Daokui, who are all influential in the field of macroeconomics [3] Group 2 - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook indicates that monetary policies in the US, Europe, and Japan will continue to move towards neutral interest rates, with geopolitical risks gradually receding, leading to lower global economic uncertainty compared to 2025 [5][6] - The discussion emphasizes that the US will focus on balancing policy, technology, and Federal Reserve actions, while Europe is expected to experience moderate recovery and Japan will face significant challenges [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses strategies for global asset allocation in 2026, focusing on selecting high-cost performance assets across various markets, including US stocks, US bonds, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks [8] - It highlights the importance of balancing risk and return while identifying structural opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [8] Group 4 - The textile and apparel industry strategy for 2026 is outlined, focusing on global consumption trends, export recovery, and the selection of stable growth leaders amid differentiated domestic demand [11] - Key insights include understanding demand elasticity and performance recovery in the textile and apparel sector [11] Group 5 - The article presents an investment map for the pharmaceutical sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange, emphasizing the high potential of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" companies [13] - It suggests a dual approach focusing on "innovation-led" and "steady growth" strategies, with a particular interest in innovative drugs, high-end medical devices, and robust generic drugs [13] - Notably, 42.86% of the companies in the pharmaceutical sector are classified as national-level "little giants," indicating a strong presence of specialized firms [13]

Group 1: ETF Market Growth - The A-share market has experienced a strong rally, leading to explosive growth in the ETF market, with a total of 351 ETF products issued in 2025, reaching an issuance volume of 2,554.55 million units, surpassing the total issuance of the previous two years [1] - Stock ETFs are the main contributors to this growth, with 312 stock-type ETFs issued, accounting for 88.89% of the total number of ETFs and 62.71% of the total issuance volume [1] - Bond ETFs also saw significant growth, with 32 new bond-type ETFs issued, totaling 914.83 million units, marking a historical high in both issuance quantity and scale [1] Group 2: Thematic and Sector Trends - Technology-themed ETFs have become the most sought-after products in 2025, with 47 ETFs containing "technology" in their names, accounting for 13.39% of the total issuance and 26.04% of the total issuance volume [1] Group 3: QDII ETF Performance - QDII ETFs have also experienced a significant increase, with 7 new QDII ETFs issued in 2025, although this is a decrease from the previous year; however, the issuance volume reached 37.67 million units, and the closing volume was 160.50 million units, indicating a strong demand for global asset allocation [2] Group 4: Issuing Institutions - A total of 47 public fund institutions participated in ETF product issuance this year, with E Fund leading with 31 ETFs issued and an issuance volume of 172.41 million units, followed by Fuguo Fund with 26 ETFs and 160.12 million units, and Penghua Fund with 25 products and 135.27 million units [2]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源融成） 美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251212-20251219) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储政策走向的博弈，美联储此前的降息与扩表操作引发通胀反弹的担忧，而 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6% 创 2021 年以来新低，又推动市场升温 2026 年更早降息的押注，加上本周五日本央行鸽派加息，全球流动性担忧缓解，市场风 险偏好先下后上。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.16%，本周下降3BPs，美元指数上涨0.32%，当前点位为98.7；2）权益方面，本周阿根廷、越南、 欧洲股市上涨较多，而科创板、恒生指数则出现下跌，韩国、日本股市跌幅较大；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨1.25%，在俄乌冲突缓和叠加供应过剩影 响下，原油本周下跌0.93%。 全球资金流向跟踪：截止到2025/12/17，过去一周来看，内外资均流入中国股市；海外资金主动和被动方面，海外主动基金过去一周流出3.12亿美元，而 海外被动基金过去一周流入14.67亿美元；内资和外资方 ...

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing explosive growth in 2025, with a record issuance of 351 products and a total issuance volume of 2,554.55 billion shares, surpassing the total issuance of the previous two years [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The total number of ETFs issued in 2025 reached 351, with a total issuance volume of 2,554.55 billion shares, marking a historical high [1]. - The issuance of stock ETFs is the primary driver, with 312 products issued, accounting for 88.89% of the total number of ETFs and 62.71% of the total issuance volume [2]. - Bond ETFs also saw significant growth, with 32 new products issued and a total issuance volume of 914.83 billion shares, exceeding historical totals [3]. Group 2: Performance of Different ETF Types - The total shares of bond ETFs reached 39.67 billion, marking a new high, and representing over three times the total from the past four years [3]. - QDII ETFs, although fewer in number with only 7 products issued, experienced substantial growth in issuance volume, reaching 37.67 billion shares, with a final share count of 160.50 billion, indicating strong demand for global asset allocation [3]. Group 3: Issuing Institutions - A total of 47 public fund institutions participated in ETF issuance, with 31 institutions issuing at least 2 products and 15 institutions issuing more than 10 products [3]. - E Fund led the market with 31 products and an issuance volume of 172.41 billion shares, followed by Fuguo Fund with 26 products and 160.12 billion shares [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trends - The market is characterized by a significant over-subscription phenomenon, with 6 institutions experiencing notable over-subscription, reflecting strong market recognition of quality ETF products [4]. - Factors such as policy support, expedited approval processes, and the popularity of index investing have contributed to the dual breakthroughs in issuance scale and product quantity in 2025 [4]. - The core advantages of ETFs, including low fees, risk diversification, and high transparency, continue to attract both institutional and individual investors [4].

【申万宏源策略】美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源策略 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Wealth Allocation and Asset Management Conference and the 2025 Banking Industry High-Quality Development Conference were held in Shenzhen, focusing on how wealth management institutions can enhance residents' wealth preservation and appreciation through upgraded service models [1] - The current wealth management market is showing a steady recovery, with a notable demand for equity products, indicating an increased interest in equity asset allocation [1] - The banking wealth management industry is facing unprecedented challenges but also greater opportunities, prompting institutions to prioritize investor interests and enhance product offerings and customer experience [1] Group 2 - ICBC Wealth Management aims to become a fully functional wealth management company, providing a comprehensive range of products and adapting to new challenges in the asset management industry [2] - The growing demand for diversified asset allocation among residents is driving the overall scale of the wealth management market and leading to significant structural changes, with various financial institutions accelerating their entry into the market [2] - The collaboration between public funds and the banking sector is seen as a key support for the high-quality development of banking wealth management [2] Group 3 - Securities companies are increasingly playing a vital role in helping residents preserve and grow their wealth by transitioning to a buyer-oriented advisory model [3] - The integration of banking wealth management and securities asset management is essential for responding to market changes and building a high-quality development ecosystem [3] - The interest of domestic investors in allocating overseas quality assets is rising, with a focus on alternative asset opportunities and multi-asset allocation strategies [3] Group 4 - Despite facing old problems and new challenges, the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy remain unchanged, necessitating proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [4] - Key strategies for activating economic potential include normalizing local investments, forming new consumer groups, and nurturing new industry demands related to emerging sectors [4] Group 5 - The 2026 investment opportunities are expected to arise from policy synergies and industrial upgrades, with particular attention on sectors such as renewable energy, new materials, chips, embodied intelligence, smart home technology, and health consumption [5]

● 本报记者 吴杨 12月19日，由中国证券报主办的"财富向善 智理未来" 2025财富配置与资产管理大会在深圳举行。汇华 理财总经理王茜在会上表示，当前单一固收配置已难以满足财富保值增值需求，全球多元资产配置成为 资管行业破局的关键方向。汇华理财已通过特色产品与投研体系构建，在该领域形成差异化竞争优势。 王茜表示，全球资产配置的必要性源于多重趋势变化。从国内市场的基本盘——债市来看，过去15年固 收投资的长期方法论历经三阶段演变，当前已进入多因素驱动阶段，各个市场投资受全球趋势影响越来 越显著。从收益表现看，单一市场配置欠佳：过去10年仅配置A股的年化收益率为1.7%，而平均配置A 股、美股、日股和欧股的组合年化收益率达10.76%，且波动率更低；今年以来仅配置人民币债券的年 化收益率不足1%，而涵盖全球多资产的组合年化收益率可达21.33%。 关于海外机会，王茜表示，全球固收领域，美债利率在降息后，短端下行，长端非但没有跟随反而出现 上行。全球权益方面，美股仍旧偏贵，同时考虑到基本面，中期看空；相比而言，欧洲股票相对美国股 市显著折价，或更具吸引力，但需观察收入受美国影响小的板块，排前的是银行、零售和交通 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Wealth Allocation and Asset Management Conference and the 2025 Banking Industry High-Quality Development Conference were held in Shenzhen, focusing on how wealth management institutions can enhance services to help residents preserve and increase wealth [1] - The current wealth management market is showing a steady recovery, with a notable demand for equity products, indicating a shift towards equity asset allocation [1] - The banking wealth management industry is facing unprecedented challenges but also greater opportunities, with a focus on customer needs, product diversification, and enhancing customer experience [1] Group 2 - ICBC Wealth Management aims to become a fully functional wealth management company, providing a full range of product offerings and adapting to new challenges in the asset management industry [2] - The growing demand for diversified asset allocation among residents is driving the overall scale of the wealth management market and leading to significant structural changes [2] - The collaboration between public funds and the banking sector is seen as a key support for the high-quality development of the banking industry [2] Group 3 - Securities companies are increasingly playing a vital role in helping residents preserve and increase wealth, especially through a shift towards buy-side advisory [3] - The integration of banking wealth management and securities asset management is essential for responding to market changes and building a high-quality development ecosystem [3] - The interest of domestic investors in allocating overseas quality assets is rising, with a focus on alternative asset opportunities and multi-asset allocation [3] Group 4 - Despite facing old problems and new challenges, the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy remain unchanged, with a call for proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [4] - Key strategies for activating economic potential include forming new consumer groups and expanding inbound consumption, alongside nurturing new industry demands [4] - Investment opportunities in 2026 are expected to arise from policy coordination and industrial upgrades, particularly in sectors like new energy, new materials, and health consumption [4]