证券研究报告 | 2025年05月12日 公募 REITs 一季报全透视 韧性领航，分红突围 一季度业绩回顾：整体表现稳健，分红积极性提升。2025 年一季度，公募 REITs62 只上市产品共实现营业收入 47.79 亿元，实现净利润 8.4 亿元，剔 除新上市项目，基于可比口径，一季度营业收入同比下降 3%，环比下降 2%； 净利润同比下降 14%，环比增长 144%。其中 55 只产品实现盈利，占比为 89%。 年初至今，公募 REITs 总分红金额达到 38.29 亿元，是去年同期的 1.29 倍， 其中有 10 只 REITs 产品分红超过 1 亿元，分红金额最多的三只分别为中信 建投国家电投新能源 REIT（4.16 亿元）、中金安徽交控 REIT（3.08 亿元）、 平安宁波交投 REIT（2.60 亿元）。 年初至今，公募 REITs 在不确定性因素加大的环境中表现出较强韧性。中证 REITs 指数涨幅为 7.5%，跑赢主要股债指数，受益于政策推动，截至 2025 年 5 月 7 日，公募 REITs 总市值达到 1904 亿元，较去年年末增长 350 亿元。 从不同项目属性来看，今年产权类、 ...

政策驰援下投资信心回升 "专业买手"加仓权益类基金 实际上，随着外部扰动影响的降低，4月权益类基金投顾投资权益类资产的信心便有所上升。以主要配 置国内权益类基金的兴证全球进取派优选为例，该组合从4月10日起将"发车"金额提升至2000元，并在5 月8日发车时维持同样的"发车"建议金额。 开源证券数据也显示，4月股债混合型、股票型投顾组合均减持了"固收+"基金，增配主动权益类基金。 注重均衡配置 在外部扰动影响降低、国内政策支持的背景下，资金对权益类资产的投资热情不减。作为基金的"专业 买手"，权益类基金投顾也不断加仓权益类基金，并在近期提升了"发车"金额。 多只投顾组合提高"发车"金额 近期，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会负责人介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况。兴证全球投顾认为，一揽子增量政策的出台将有力推动增量资金入市，进一步提振 市场风险偏好。 5月以来，多只基金投顾组合提高了"发车"金额。比如中欧财富旗下的"中欧超级股票全明星"组合，4月 两次"发车"的建议金额为720元，但5月8日"发车"金额提高至900元。 中欧财富认为，不仅是政策支持，在4月业绩验证期结束后，5月 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 11 日 哑铃策略占优 核心观点 我们认为在短期市场弹性上升的背景下，考虑到转债市场相关的潜在风险释放压力， 继续投资者继续采取稳健与成长兼具的哑铃配置策略，具体关注内需刺激受益与新质 生产力板块。 ❑ 可转债市场观察 过去一周（5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日，下同）大部分转债指数上涨，其中可转债可选 消费行业指数，AA-及以下评级转债、可转债高价指数、小盘转债指数领涨。估 值方面，平衡性、股性估值压缩。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅上升到 120.60 元，处在 2017 年以来的 81.26%水平。 虽然近期市场整体弹性上升，但是未来一个月左右的时间我们认为市场或许更加 关注基本面，其原因主要在于；首先，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要 落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而非成长预期；其次，评级公司也将会 在年报披露完毕后，集中对转债进行评级展望，届时或将继续有相关转债的评级 有被下调的可能性；最后，海外关税风险冲击国内风险偏好与基本面。以上几个 方面将对市场风格带来影响，市场大概率将会倾向于基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference by Chinese financial authorities introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on monetary easing and support for the capital market, which exceeded market expectations [1][3][4]. Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut, which was beyond market expectations, along with a 0.1% reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.25% cut in structural monetary policy tool rates and personal provident fund rates [4][5]. - A total of 8 trillion yuan in funding support was announced, including 5 billion yuan for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and 3 billion yuan for stock repurchase loans [4][6]. Market Reactions - Many public fund companies believe that the policies will lead to a sustained rebound in the A-share market, particularly benefiting sectors such as technology, real estate, consumer services, precious metals, and public utilities [1][5][10]. - The A-share indices experienced consecutive gains following the announcement, indicating a potential second wave of the "9·24 market" [8]. Investment Strategies - The "barbell" strategy is favored by public fund institutions, focusing on both technology growth and defensive dividend stocks to navigate market volatility [9][10]. - The technology sector remains the most favored direction among public fund institutions, with expectations for long-term performance despite short-term uncertainties [11][12]. Economic Context - The timing of the conference coincided with a stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and the establishment of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, which adds to the significance of the policies announced [5][6]. - The focus on stabilizing domestic demand is seen as a necessary choice to counter external uncertainties, with an emphasis on sectors like real estate, consumer services, and technology innovation [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected rise of the emerging consumption sector, driven by the younger consumer demographic, amidst the prevailing "dumbbell strategy" in the A-share market for 2024 [1][2] - The Hengyue Fund's product, Hengyue Craftsmanship Preferred One-Year Holding Mixed Fund, has achieved a year-to-date increase of 37.29%, ranking 28th among 4,556 active equity funds, indicating strong market performance in the emerging consumption sector [1] - The structural opportunities arising from generational shifts in consumption are emphasized, with younger consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s, increasingly prioritizing spending on experiences and emotional satisfaction over basic living expenses [1] Group 2 - Emerging consumption is characterized by three distinct features: a younger consumer base, a shift in consumption preferences towards emotional and social attributes, and accelerated iteration of product categories such as smart wearables and health equipment [1] - Hengyue Fund has heavily invested in the consumption sector since the second quarter of the previous year, with 90% of the top ten holdings in the fund being emerging consumption-related stocks, covering various niches like beauty and pet economy [1] - In the context of increasing global trade uncertainties, domestic consumption is expected to become a focal point, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand becoming clearer [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for active management strategies in bond investment portfolios to capture pricing discrepancies and select investment targets for better returns [1][4]. Market Environment - The market has experienced continued volatility in the second quarter, exacerbated by new U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation, economic growth, and interest rate trends [1][2]. - The fixed income assets are gaining investor attention due to their stable returns and risk diversification benefits, although the current narrowing of spreads indicates it is not a typical "buy the dip" scenario [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has become highly uncertain due to factors such as policy adjustments, fiscal measures, de-globalization trends, and energy transitions, which are impacting both short-term and long-term perspectives [2]. - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank face challenges from economic cycle pressures and structural changes, with a slight increase in the probability of recession from 15% to 20% [3]. Investment Strategy - Selective allocation is crucial as credit spreads have widened but remain at historically low levels, necessitating careful selection of bonds [4]. - The high-yield bond market shows a divided performance, presenting both opportunities and risks, with a recommendation for investors to focus on short-duration high-yield bonds due to favorable conditions [4][5]. Asset Selection - High-quality securitized credit assets, such as AAA-rated CLOs and CMBS, are expected to continue providing attractive risk-adjusted returns, while low-rated bonds exhibit high volatility without corresponding excess return potential [5]. - In the investment-grade bond sector, strong capital positions in banks and utilities are favored, while the retail sector is viewed negatively due to pressures from AI and consumer shifts [6]. Tactical Management - Active management strategies are essential in the face of narrowing spreads, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainties, with a preference for a "barbell strategy" that combines high-quality income assets with opportunistic risk assets [6]. - Fixed income assets still hold advantages over cash and equities, particularly in scenarios of significant market corrections leading to interest rate declines [6].

被高盛的最新数据惊到了—— 其最新发布的全球资金流向报告显示，在3月27日至4月23日的一个月内，全球股票基金获得680.79亿美 元净流入，新兴市场基金获得271.4亿美元净流入，其中90%都流入了中国市场。 相当于中国股票基金获得246.86亿美元净流入，资金流入额远超韩国、印度、巴西等其他新兴市场。 并且从外资加仓的核心标的来看，主要聚焦于腾讯、阿里等盈利能力强劲的港股科技龙头，相关场内 ETF也获得资金大幅加仓，$港股科技50ETF(SZ159750)$年内份额增长超300%。 不仅如此，香橼创始人安德鲁·莱福特也透露自己正通过投资iShares中国大盘ETF押注A股，并直言中国 被超卖太久。 这种极致分化的行情，让越来越多人盯上了"科技+红利"的哑铃策略——左手握住科技成长的β，右手锁 定红利分红的α，港股"哑铃策略"已经是资金共识。 在外资长线押注与内资避险需求共振下，港股科技50ETF与港股红利低波ETF的组合，或将定义2025年 的投资胜负手。 港股科技50ETF(159750)权重股涵盖了互联网、半导体、智能汽车三大黄金赛道，腾讯、阿里、小米占 了近35%权重，既能吃到AI大模型的红利，又能 ...

昨天有一篇判断10年国债会上到2.5%的卖方分析，传播比较多，中午我们在《 鸡贼的观点 》里对线了一下，省流版观点就是—— 今年如果10年国债上到 2.5%，博主就把键盘吃了。 今天先聊债券，因为债市日内确实经历了，很炸裂的，从ICU到KTV的行情变化。 原因是好几个小作文 ，这里我就不贴了，一方面大部分真实性都存疑，另一方面上面 打击小作文的意图还是比较明显的， 今天几个聊小作文的文章，傍 晚都被删了......所以，咱们还是聊正儿八经的观点吧。 观点其实上周五都写了，没有变化，下图 ，理财经理小伙伴们可以考虑收藏一下，每当债市下跌的时候，你把这个图拿出来，看看这5条里，是否有根本 性的变化，如果没有的话，就继续让客户放宽心一点。 下午14点后，债市出现了非常大的反转行情，按日内高点算的话，10年国债下了8bps，30年国债下了6bps，这都属于巨幅的单日变化。 事实上，上面说的这些里，这两天的几个边际变化在于： 第一，财新的统计， 3月仅过去不到两周，累计686只拟发行 信用债 中，有76只取消发行 ， 相当于每11只拟发信用债中就有1只取消发行，同比和环比都 大幅攀升 。 这说明债市调整，已经波及到了企 ...