Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the need for a cautious yet progressive approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting that the market may experience increased volatility and pressure on valuations in 2026 compared to 2025 [1][2] - The report indicates that the A-share index rose by 25% and the convertible bond index increased by 18% as of November 17, 2025, driven by a stable domestic economy and favorable external liquidity conditions [4][13] - It is projected that the market in 2026 may face fluctuations, and the favorable conditions seen in 2025 may not be replicated, with limited new positive factors expected [5][31] Group 2 - The report outlines that the convertible bond market is under valuation pressure, with the median price of convertible bonds at 132.98 yuan and a median conversion premium of 28%, both indicating high valuation levels [6][36] - The analysis of investor behavior shows that while funds have increased their holdings in convertible bonds, insurance companies have reduced their positions, leading to a temporary balance in the market [6][40] - Six potential investment themes for convertible bonds in 2026 are identified, including opportunities in AI hardware infrastructure, the transition of AI from hardware to applications, and structural inflation in the chemical industry [7][44][45] Group 3 - The report highlights that the economic indicators suggest a potential decline in economic growth for 2026, with social financing growth rates decreasing from 9.0% in July to 8.5% in October 2025 [19][20] - Market valuations are noted to be at a neutral to high level, with the PE ratio at 22.13 and the PB ratio at 1.82 as of November 18, 2025, indicating a historical high valuation context [22][29] - The report suggests that the convertible bond market may experience amplified volatility due to the current high valuations and changing investor dynamics [32][36]

Group 1 - The report identifies three main factors influencing convertible bond performance: equity-debt price ratio, dollar liquidity, and large-small cap style [2][11][20] - The current economic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, but limited incremental benefits due to insufficient momentum from households and enterprises [2][12][39] - The dollar is expected to remain in a loose monetary environment, which historically supports equity markets [2][16][19] Group 2 - Convertible bonds are currently in a trading phase that follows the performance of underlying stocks, having experienced three cycles since 2018 [3][27][28] - The median price of convertible bonds as of November 3, 2025, is 132.72 yuan, placing it at the 99.3% historical percentile, indicating a high valuation level [4][34][35] - The median conversion premium is 27%, which is at the 55.3% historical percentile, suggesting a relatively high valuation in the current market [4][34][35] Group 3 - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy for convertible bonds, focusing on equity-like convertible bonds priced above 120 yuan, with specific recommendations for various sectors [5][39][41] - Recommended convertible bonds include those from financial consumption, public utilities, AI and robotics, as well as semiconductor and manufacturing sectors [5][39][41] Group 4 - The investor behavior analysis shows that the total outstanding convertible bond scale has decreased from 844.7 billion yuan in January 2025 to 759.5 billion yuan in October 2025, with funds increasing their holdings [29][31] - The report highlights a shift in investor composition, with funds increasing their share from 34.3% to 39.8% during the same period, while insurance institutions have reduced their holdings significantly [29][32]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with the shipping index (European line) rising over 3% and lithium carbonate dropping over 4% [1] - The China convertible bond index closed down 0.67%, with notable gainers including Zhongneng Convertible Bond and Zhenhua Convertible Bond, which rose 13.15% and 9.57% respectively [1] - The ETF market had varied performances, with the Asia-Pacific Selected ETF leading gains at 2.35%, while the Nikkei 225 ETF fell by 5.76% [1] Group 2 - UBS Securities expressed a positive mid-term outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that growth style remains the main investment theme, with the ChiNext board showing a favorable risk-reward ratio [2] - In the context of AI investments, Invesco's Chief Global Market Strategist noted that the potential of AI is undeniable, but the ultimate winners in the sector will take time to identify, recommending a diversified investment approach [2] - CICC highlighted that the market's upward trend is likely to continue, with structural highlights in sectors such as AI computing power, machinery, automotive, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of AVIC Securities indicated that external risks are easing, leading to improved market risk appetite, and suggested a balanced investment approach focusing on themes like smart technology and aerospace [3] - The recent announcement regarding gold tax policies aims to encourage on-site gold trading by clarifying distinctions between investment and non-investment uses [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the convertible bond market followed the equity market to fluctuate upward and then pulled back. The CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 pcts. High - priced convertible bonds continued to be dominant, and low - price and low - premium convertible bonds led the Wind sub - indices. In the short term, the "15th Five - Year Plan" focusing on carbon peaking and the supply - side reform of the new energy industry is expected to support relevant underlying stocks and convertible bonds. However, in the fourth quarter, due to economic data pressure and profit - taking needs, the probability of high - to - low and structural switching in the market increases, and defensive convertible bonds with previous underperformance may be dominant in stages, and the cost - performance of low - price and low - premium convertible bonds has increased. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact on the demand side of convertible bonds with the further adjustment of fund fees and the launch of stock - bond balanced funds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Tracking - On October 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - sized Investors in the Capital Market", focusing on key issues of small and medium - sized investors and proposing 23 specific measures in eight aspects [3]. - On October 31, the CSRC issued the "Guidelines for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Exposure Draft)", aiming to standardize the selection and use of performance comparison benchmarks of public funds through six chapters and 21 articles, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors [3]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major domestic equity market indices fluctuated strongly. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but its stance on the December interest - rate cut was hawkish. Domestically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations advanced, and the October manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than that in September, which was lower than market expectations and suppressed market risk appetite. The equity market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling [6]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Last week, major convertible bond market indices followed the equity market to rise. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.79%, 0.55%, and 1.14% respectively. Convertible bond ETFs had a net redemption of 11.92 billion yuan. Structurally, high - priced convertible bonds continued to be strong, and low - price and low - premium convertible bonds performed well. In terms of industries, most convertible bonds in various industries rose, with steel industry convertible bonds leading the gain. Looking forward, in the short term, relevant policies may support new energy - related convertible bonds, but in the fourth quarter, the probability of market switching increases, and the cost - performance of low - price and low - premium convertible bonds has increased [2][8][11]. Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: Last week, there was no new convertible bond issuance. Fueneng Convertible Bond and Jin25 Convertible Bond were listed, while several convertible bonds were redeemed in advance or expired and delisted. As of October 31, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 581.274 billion yuan, a decrease of 152.619 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year and an increase of 3.14 billion yuan compared with the previous week [35]. - **Conversion and Approval**: Seven convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week. Shuangle Co., Ltd.'s convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange, and Ruikeda's convertible bond issuance was approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, 5 convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, with a total of 4.15 billion yuan, and 6 convertible bonds passed the issuance review committee, with a total of 3.381 billion yuan [35][40]. - **Clause Tracking**: Last week, no convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and 1 convertible bond announced early redemption. Several convertible bonds proposed or were about to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and some were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [41].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The bond market sentiment was generally positive last week due to factors such as the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading, loose cross - month funds, the stock market decline after the Sino - US summit, and weak PMI data. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.80% on Friday, down 5.32bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. - The equity market rose first and then fell last week. With positive factors like Sino - US trade negotiations, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the A - share market was strong in the first half of the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high above 4000. However, it declined in the second half as positive news materialized and the demand for profit - taking increased. The technology hardware sector, which had a high increase previously, led the decline [1][7]. - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.79% for the whole week, the median price rose by 0.63%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity increased by 0.64%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 0.10% compared with the previous week [1][8]. - Convertible bonds are still restricted by high prices, high premiums, and frequent redemptions. The overall opportunity is hard to find as the median convertible bond price remains above 130 yuan. For different types of convertible bonds, there are different challenges, such as limited capacity and return space for low - price strategies in debt - biased convertible bonds, over - anticipation of underlying stock price increases in balanced convertible bonds, and the risk of double - killing of valuation and parity in high - quality "core stocks" of non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds during market fluctuations [2][17]. - Given the strong bullish atmosphere in the equity market, it is difficult to make decisions on increasing or decreasing positions. The overall assets should be treated with a trading - band mindset. When selecting bonds, it is advisable to allocate evenly across industries. For balanced convertible bonds, choose those with high - volatility underlying stocks that can quickly digest the high convertible bond premiums, and for equity - biased convertible bonds, focus on low - premium targets [2][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/10/27 - 2025/10/31) Stock Market - The equity market showed a volatile trend. The Shanghai Composite Index had different daily changes: up 1.18% on Monday, down 0.22% on Tuesday, up 0.7% on Wednesday, down 0.73% on Thursday, and down 0.81% on Friday. Different sectors had varying performances each day [7]. - Most Shenwan primary industries rose last week. The top - performing industries were power equipment (4.29%), non - ferrous metals (2.56%), steel (2.55%), basic chemicals (2.50%), and comprehensive (2.26%), while communication (-3.59%), beauty care (-2.21%), banking (-2.16%), and electronics (-1.65%) performed poorly [8]. Bond Market - The bond market sentiment was good. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.80% on Friday, down 5.32bp from the previous week, influenced by factors such as the central bank's actions, fund conditions, stock market movements, and PMI data [1][7][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.79% for the whole week, the median price rose by 0.63%, and the arithmetic average parity increased by 0.64%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 0.10% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in different parity ranges also changed [1][8]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bond industries rose. The top - performing industries were steel (+3.04%), machinery and equipment (+2.15%), national defense and military industry (+1.75%), and automobile (+1.16%), while communication (-3.18%), beauty care (-3.17%), building materials (-0.75%), and media (-0.48%) performed poorly [11]. - At the individual bond level, Titan (solid - state battery concept), Dazhong (lithium mine), Zhenhua (chromium salt), Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 (innovative drugs), and Yunji (belt conveyor) convertible bonds led the increase, while Tongguang (optical fiber cable), Shuiyang (skin care products), Jingda (controllable nuclear fusion), Huayi (semiconductor clean room), and Wujin (stainless steel) convertible bonds led the decline [1][12]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 310.731 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 62.146 billion yuan, which was higher than the previous week [15]. Valuation Overview - As of October 31, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in different parity intervals were at different percentile levels since 2010 and 2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of those with a parity below 70 yuan was -5.3%, at the 0%/1% percentile levels since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 40.84%, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was -1.34%, both at certain percentile levels [18]. Primary Market Tracking Last Week (2025/10/27 - 2025/10/31) - Qizhong Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Jin 25 and Funeng Convertible Bonds were listed. Qizhong Convertible Bond has a scale of 850 million yuan, Jin 25 Convertible Bond has a scale of 2 billion yuan, and Funeng Convertible Bond has a scale of 3.802 billion yuan. Each bond's underlying company has its own business characteristics, financial performance, and planned use of funds after deducting issuance fees [26][27][29]. - One company (Ruikeda) got new approval for registration, one company (Shuangle Co., Ltd.) passed the listing committee review, 13 companies' applications were accepted by the exchange, one company (Mankun Technology) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 4 companies announced board proposals [31]. Future Week (2025/11/3 - 2025/11/7) - As of the announcement on October 31, there is no convertible bond announced for issuance, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 is expected to be listed. It has a scale of 1.677 billion yuan, and its underlying company has specific business operations, financial data, and planned use of funds [30]. - Currently, there are 94 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 143.51 billion yuan. Among them, 5 have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.15 billion yuan, and 6 have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 3.38 billion yuan [31].

Group 1 - The convertible bond market experienced a decline, with the Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index falling by 0.86% to 484.44, and a total trading volume of 599.24 billion yuan [1] - A total of 403 convertible bonds were traded, with 45 increasing in value, 1 remaining flat, and 357 decreasing [1] - Notably, 12 convertible bonds saw an increase of over 2%, with Funi Convertible Bond (110099) rising by 40.63%, Dazhong Convertible Bond (127070) increasing by 18.76%, and Titan Convertible Bond (127096) up by 12.05% [1] Group 2 - Conversely, 64 convertible bonds experienced a decline of over 2%, with Shuiyang Convertible Bond (123188) dropping by 11.66%, Fuli Convertible Bond (118043) down by 5.72%, and Huanxu Convertible Bond (113045) falling by 4.9% [1] - Among the underlying stocks corresponding to the traded convertible bonds, 95 increased, 6 remained flat, and 302 decreased [1] - Specifically, 8 convertible bonds had underlying stocks that rose by over 5%, including Titan Co. (003036) hitting the daily limit with a 10.02% increase, Zhenhua Co. (603067) also reaching the limit with a 10.0% rise, and Dazhong Mining (001203) up by 9.99% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent proposals and decisions regarding various convertible bonds, including adjustments and redemption statuses, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market for these financial instruments [1][3][5]. Summary by Categories Convertible Bond Proposals - Jingneng Convertible Bond has proposed a downward adjustment [1]. - Jizhi, Hangyu, and Songlin Convertible Bonds will not be forcibly redeemed [1]. - Aowei, Wei22, and Hengyi Convertible Bonds will not undergo downward adjustments [1]. - Qizhong Convertible Bond is set for subscription on November 3 [1]. - Funi Convertible Bond has been listed [1]. Current Prices and Redemption Information - The current price of Montai Convertible Bond is 141.799, with a redemption price of 101.190, and the last trading day is October 24, 2025 [3]. - New23 Convertible Bond is priced at 144.636, with a redemption price of 100.219, and the last trading day is also October 24, 2025 [3]. - Enjie Convertible Bond has a current price of 127.714 and a redemption price of 101.440, with the last trading day on October 27, 2025 [3]. - Zshi Convertible Bond is priced at 137.805, with a redemption price of 100.190, and the last trading day is October 29, 2025 [3]. - Zchang Convertible Bond has a current price of 117.358, with a redemption price of 101.151, and the last trading day is October 29, 2025 [3]. Market Capitalization and Conversion Ratios - The remaining scale of Zshi Convertible Bond is 0.598 billion, with a market cap ratio of 0.96% [3]. - The remaining scale of Zchang Convertible Bond is 0.638 billion, with a market cap ratio of 1.83% [3]. - The remaining scale of Niutai Convertible Bond is 0.745 billion, with a market cap ratio of 2.71% [3]. - The remaining scale of Chunqiu Convertible Bond is 0.653 billion, with a market cap ratio of 0.98% [3]. - The remaining scale of Sheng24 Convertible Bond is 10.035 billion, with a market cap ratio of 6.24% [3].

New Stock Issuance - Multiple companies are experiencing significant abnormal fluctuations in stock prices, including 香农芯创 (300475) with a notice date of 2025-10-24[1] - 天普股份 (605255) reported on 2025-10-21[1] - 生益电子 (688183) and 达华智能 (002512) both reported on 2025-10-29[1] Trading Alerts - 21 companies have been flagged for abnormal trading activities as of 2025-10-29, indicating potential volatility in the market[1] - ST新华锦 (600735) and 汇绿生态 (001267) are among those with recent alerts on 2025-10-29[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for each company, providing transparency and further information for investors[1] Market Trends - The report highlights a trend of increased scrutiny on companies with abnormal stock price movements, suggesting a potential shift in regulatory focus[1] - Investors are advised to monitor these stocks closely due to the heightened risk associated with abnormal fluctuations[1]

New Stock Issuance - Zhongcheng Consulting (920003) issued at a price of 14.27[1] - Delijia (732092) issued at a price of 46.68[1] - Heyuan Biological (688765) issued at a price of 29.06[1] - Bibete (688759) issued at a price of 17.78[1] - Xian Yicai (688783) issued at a price of 8.62[1] - Taikaiying (920020) issued at a price of 7.50[1] Market Alerts - Offer period for Shangwei New Materials (688585) from September 29 to October 28, 2025[1] - Severe abnormal fluctuation reported for Xiangnan Chip (300475)[1] - Multiple companies including ST Yuancheng (603388) and Tianpu Co. (605255) reported various announcements on October 24 and 28, 2025[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is fast, with the technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, but its downside risk is generally controllable. The convertible bond market is trending optimistically. In the short term, the impetus for the convertible bond market comes from the liability side, with the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential increased demand from the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs. After a period of retracement and consolidation, a new round of market upswing is expected to start. [3][5] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Outlook - Policy support has strongly influenced the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have hit new phased highs. The equity market is highly volatile due to Sino - US tariff and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is optimistic, and its short - term momentum comes from the liability side, such as the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and potential demand from stock - bond constant ETFs. [3][5] 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - During the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk appetite was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - rated large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. The overall market's 100 - yuan premium rate was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and its percentile since 2017 was 93.9%. High - rated convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - rated ones. - The conversion premium rate and the bottom - line premium rate increased across most parity ranges. The low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range showed relatively strong valuation performance, while the high - parity range above 140 yuan saw a slight decline. - The median price of convertible bonds was 131.80 yuan, up 2.07 yuan from the previous week, and the yield to maturity was - 6.47%, down 0.01%. Their percentile levels since 2017 were 99.20 and 0.60 respectively. [4][6][10] 3. Clause Statistics 3.1 Redemption - This week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun, Youfa, and Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 Convertible Bonds announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There are currently 18 convertible bonds that have announced forced or maturity redemptions but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 34 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. [4][13][16] 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 23 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 have triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price is still below the trigger price and no announcement has been made, 32 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 has issued a board - meeting proposal for downward revision but has not yet held a shareholders' meeting. [4][18] 3.3 Put Option - This week, Baocai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 5 are accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 is accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision period. [4][22] 4. Primary Market Issuance - There were no new convertible bond issuances this week. Jin 25, Funeng, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 Convertible Bonds have been issued but not yet listed. Jin 25 Convertible Bond is scheduled to list on October 27, 2025. As of now, there are 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 awaiting listing - committee approval, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. [4][26] 5. Appendix - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.47% this week. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed significant recovery. Most industries saw gains, with the national defense and military industry, electronics, and computer sectors leading the way. [28][33]