摘要今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，现货黄金震荡走低，现交投于4515美元/盎司附近，跌约0.31%，虽 脱离历史高点4549.69美元不远，仍处相对高位，市场紧盯后续地缘走向与谈判节奏。特朗普与泽连斯 基会晤后称俄乌谈判有进展，但领土分歧仍棘手。避险情绪降温，黄金溢价承压回吐。 今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，特朗普与泽连斯基会晤后称俄乌谈判有进展，但领土分歧仍棘手。避险 情绪降温，黄金溢价承压回吐。现货黄金震荡走低，现交投于4514.12美元/盎司附近，跌约0.40%，虽 脱离历史高点4549.69美元不远，仍处相对高位，市场紧盯后续地缘走向与谈判节奏。 【要闻速递】 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 判断后续走势盯三信号：一是能否收复早盘跌势(回4550并突破则修正结束，否则或续回调)；二是欧盘 能否连阳放量(显资金进场，看涨；反之或区间震荡)；三是4472能否守住(不破则牛市趋势未改，破位或 扩至4400，警惕转弱)。 特朗普指出，领土问题核心在于部分被占或争议区域，"现在达成协议更有利"。会前他与普京进行"良 好且富有成效"的通话，计划会后再次沟通，为谈判定调。 尽管泽连斯基称20点和平方案已完成90% ...

Group 1 - Recent international crude oil prices are on the rise, driven by geopolitical signals, particularly the ongoing tensions in Venezuela, leading to concerns over supply stability and resulting in five consecutive price increases, with Brent crude futures approaching $62 per barrel and WTI crude stabilizing around $58 per barrel [1] - The domestic refined oil market has not been able to reverse the trend of price adjustments due to the previous low international oil prices, resulting in a decrease in retail prices. As of December 24, the average price of reference crude oil was $60.21 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.05%, indicating a potential increase of 90 yuan per ton for domestic gasoline and diesel prices [1] - The next price adjustment window is set for January 6, with the new change rate extending into a positive range, supported by OPEC+'s decision to halt production increases starting January 2026, along with seasonal demand during the Christmas period in Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The domestic gasoline and diesel market is currently experiencing a balance of "international favorable support and domestic demand pressure," with prices remaining stable but slightly increasing, although the market remains subdued due to weak demand [2] - The northern regions are seeing a seasonal decline in diesel consumption as outdoor construction and mining projects halt, while southern regions have limited support from urgent demand due to ongoing projects. Gasoline demand is also weak, with only marginal improvements expected from the upcoming New Year holiday [2] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with traders and end-users adopting a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy, leading to low willingness for large orders and resulting in limited market transactions [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the domestic gasoline and diesel market is expected to remain in a supply-demand balancing act, with international concerns about economic prospects and geopolitical issues in Venezuela providing support for oil prices [3] - As the New Year and Spring Festival approach, there may be a gradual increase in demand for transportation and logistics, potentially leading to slight releases in end-user replenishment needs, although refinery operating rates are expected to remain stable [3] - Short-term domestic gasoline and diesel prices are likely to remain stable with slight increases, and market activity may improve marginally with the release of holiday demand, although the overall recovery may be limited [3]

截至2025年12月22日，伦敦现货黄金突破4400美元/盎司（年内涨68%），白银首破69美元/盎司（年内涨139%），创历史新高。本轮行情呈现三大核心特 征： 短期：黄金ETF持仓回落0.8%，白银LOF溢价率57%创历史新高，获利盘抛压加剧波动 中期：美联储降息路径存变，若美国11月CPI反弹可能推迟宽松，金银比存在回调压力 技术：光伏银浆降银技术普及或削弱需求增速，白银缺乏央行购金支撑 黄金：技术面突破2011-2020年下降通道，高盛预测2026年或达4900美元，对应40%上行空间 白银：突破50美元关键阻力位，杯柄形态确认后理论目标86美元，工业属性支撑长期牛市 面对复杂市场，投资者需要的不是盲目追高的勇气，而是基于深刻理解的策略纪律。 明确资产定位，差异化配置： 一、驱动逻辑重构 二、风险暗礁显现 三、周期定位判断 黄金：货币信用重估驱动 美元信用体系受美国债务/GDP突破130%冲击，全球央行前三季度净购金634吨，中国连续13个月增持 地缘风险溢价持续，美委冲突、中东局势等事件频发，避险需求占比升至35% 白银：工业+金融双轮共振 光伏用银占比突破55%（2025年需求7560吨），AI服 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects a downward trend, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton respectively, effective from December 22, 2025, leading to reduced costs for consumers and the logistics industry [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current round of price adjustments marks the 12th decrease in 2025, concluding the year with a "three consecutive declines" in fuel prices [3]. - After this adjustment, the overall price changes for gasoline and diesel compared to the end of last year are a decrease of 915 yuan and 880 yuan per ton respectively, translating to a reduction of 0.72 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.76 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.75 yuan per liter for diesel [3]. - The savings for consumers filling a 50-liter tank of 92 gasoline is approximately 6.5 yuan, with further reductions in fuel costs for both private vehicles and the logistics sector [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The next round of fuel price adjustments is scheduled for January 6, 2026, which will be the first adjustment of the year [4]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical risks may provide some support for oil prices, but the potential for significant price increases appears limited due to current low oil prices [4]. - Expectations for the next price adjustment lean towards an increase, influenced by seasonal demand and OPEC+'s decision to halt production increases starting in January [4].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by supply-demand balance, geopolitical risk premiums, and expectations of liquidity easing, with current prices reaching new highs since June 2022 [1][2]. Market Price Trends - As of December 19, 2025, the price of 1 tin in the Changjiang spot market is quoted at 336,500-338,500 CNY per ton, with an average of 337,500 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 4,000 CNY per ton from the previous day [1]. - The cumulative increase over three days exceeds 5.5%, with the Shanghai tin futures contract closing at 338,410 CNY per ton, marking a 1% rise [1]. Macroeconomic Influences - The latest U.S. CPI data for November shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2]. - Easing liquidity conditions globally are supporting risk assets, including tin, while China's economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand are enhancing market confidence [2]. - Geopolitical risks related to the supply chain of critical minerals are adding a risk premium to tin prices, alongside disruptions in supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and logistical issues in Cambodia [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by structural tightness with limited marginal improvements, primarily due to slow recovery in Myanmar, policy restrictions in Indonesia, and ongoing raw material shortages [3]. - Global refined tin production is declining, and visible inventories are at historically low levels, amplifying the price impact of any supply disruptions [3]. - Demand is transitioning with traditional sectors like consumer electronics facing weakness, while emerging sectors such as AI servers, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics are becoming key growth drivers [3][5]. Industry Structure and Challenges - The upstream sector is dominated by a few major regions, facing challenges from declining ore grades and geopolitical risks, which restrict effective supply release [3]. - The midstream sector is under pressure due to high raw material costs and inefficiencies, pushing the industry towards higher efficiency and concentration through technological upgrades [4]. - The downstream sector is witnessing a structural transformation, with traditional demand stagnating while high-end applications in emerging industries are driving growth [5]. Short-term Price Outlook - The tin market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation, balancing supply disruptions and cost support against weak demand and inventory pressures [5]. - Key factors influencing this balance include the actual recovery of supply from major producing regions and the efficiency of cost transmission to downstream demand [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增加，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期沙特将其主要原油品种对亚洲的售价下调至五年来最低水平，与此同时全球原油库 存不断累积，原油市场正处在供应压力不断增大的阶段。此外，原油市场月差及成品油裂解价差走 弱均显示油市供需偏弱结构。随着美国和委内瑞拉冲突升级，地缘风险溢价再度增强。本周四夜盘， 国内原油期货价格呈现震荡整理的走势，预计本周五国内原油期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil supply - demand is becoming looser. With the progress of peace talks and various news factors, the oil price fluctuates more violently [3]. - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, causing the fuel oil market to weaken. The low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. The high - sulfur fuel oil has potential raw material fluctuations and medium - term market pressure [4]. - The price of the asphalt main contract rose about 3.6% due to the expected reduction of Venezuelan crude oil supply, which may lead to a tight supply of raw materials for asphalt production. It has a positive impact on asphalt and other heavy oil products [5]. 3. Summary by Category Crude oil - The API data shows that the US API crude oil inventory from December 12 decreased by 9.322 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, but it did not boost oil prices [3]. - Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and the positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation increase market concerns about oil supply and lead to intensified oil price fluctuations [3]. Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, and the decline in crude oil prices drives the fuel oil market down [4]. - In the low - sulfur fuel oil market, the remaining low - sulfur quota in December is limited, production may shrink, and import demand may increase. The end - of - year shipping fuel peak season and unstable overseas refinery operations may provide short - term support, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [4]. - In the high - sulfur fuel oil market, US sanctions on Venezuela may affect the arrival of heavy high - sulfur raw materials, providing short - term support. However, rising inventories in Singapore and the Middle East and floating storage accumulation due to logistics blockages bring medium - term market pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose about 3.6%. Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers led to a drop in Venezuelan crude oil shipments to zero (excluding those to the US), and the expected reduction in raw material supply for domestic asphalt production boosted asphalt futures prices [5]. - The competition of local refineries for other heavy high - sulfur crude oils in the spot market may lead to tight global heavy crude oil supply, which is also beneficial to asphalt and other heavy oil products [5].

来源：期货日报 二是地缘风险溢价回落，俄乌和谈有新进展。长期支撑油价的地缘风险溢价，如今也在逐步消退。美国 总统特朗普最新表态称，在与乌克兰总统泽连斯基及欧洲领导人会晤后，结束俄乌冲突的和平协议"比 以往任何时候都更接近达成"。这一消息直接导致原油盘面的地缘风险溢价加速回吐。 三是基本面过剩兑现，库存压力持续加码。前期高企的水上原油库存正逐渐转化为岸罐显性仓储，而中 东地区的实货买盘持续走弱，进一步压低了国内原油估值，目前SC原油近月结构已翻转为Contango （远期价格高于近期价格），这正是市场对基本面过剩的明确表达。 连续多日下跌，原油价格"破位"。 12月16日晚间，国际原油价格迎来"跳水"行情：WTI原油期货价格跌破55美元/桶重要关口，布伦特原 油期货价格同步失守60美元/桶防线，而国内SC原油期货价格也跌至420元/桶左右的年内低点。截至当 天收盘，2026年1月交货的WTI原油期货价格下跌1.55美元，收于每桶55.27美元，跌幅为2.73%；2月交 货的布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.64美元，收于每桶58.92美元，跌幅为2.71%；SC原油期货价格收跌至 422.5元/桶。 美原油主连 > G ...

一、行情回顾 卡塔尔能源部长：油价在70至80美元之间，足以带来足够收入，用于投资满足未来能源需求；若超过90 美元，则过高。 创元期货：总体来看，俄乌和谈仍未达成加之俄油出口风险抬升，支撑油价。中期，基于平衡表累库判 断，油价依然偏弱，注意阶段性地缘风险溢价。 二、基本面汇总 华联期货：消息面俄罗斯总统表示现阶段具体说明俄罗斯对美国涉乌克兰方案的认可程度为时尚早。宏 观面美联储12月降息概率较大。总体看，地缘方面继续关注俄乌和谈进展，原油自身供需偏过剩，但 OPEC+暂停增产对盘面有一定支撑。技术面区间震荡。操作上期货中线偏空对待，可买入持有看涨期 权保护，SC2602合约压力位参考460-470。 据NANOS民调显示，超过一半的加拿大人支持阿尔伯塔至不列颠哥伦比亚的新油管建设。 机构调查显示，欧佩克上月原油产量保持稳定，该组织在全球石油市场疲软之际维持谨慎战略。根据调 查，欧佩克在11月的平均日产量略高于2900万桶，与上月基本持平。 上周五夜盘，国内原油期货2601合约涨3.4至457.1元/桶。 三、机构观点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the oil market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is driving oil prices higher [1][2][4] - As of December 5, international oil prices have increased, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $60.08 per barrel, up 0.69%, and Brent crude oil at $63.75 per barrel, up 0.77% [1][2] - The ongoing negotiations between Ukrainian representatives and U.S. officials have not yielded significant progress, contributing to the uncertainty in the market and maintaining a risk premium on oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - Employment growth in the U.S. is slowing, leading to market expectations that a rate cut will support oil demand, which is further bolstered by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [2][3] - The potential for a military escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela is expected to significantly impact benchmark oil prices, while the lack of progress in peace talks regarding Ukraine also supports oil prices [2][3] - Current oil price movements are influenced by a combination of geopolitical risk premiums, monetary policy expectations, and seasonal demand changes, with Brent crude prices expected to stabilize between $60 and $65 per barrel [2][4] Group 3 - Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA is projected to reduce its crude oil exports to 650,000 barrels per day in December, marking a six-month low, while Asian refiners are increasing their crude purchases in anticipation of seasonal demand [3][4] - The dynamics of oil prices are described through a dual-variable model of "rules and material," where geopolitical events and monetary policy expectations interact to influence market behavior [3][4] - Future oil price predictions suggest that Brent crude will remain in the $60 to $65 per barrel range, influenced by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and OPEC's production decisions [4]