【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率36%，累计降息25个基点的概率为49.7%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为13.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.6%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增4.01吨 至923.89吨；iShares白银ETF持仓日增77.77吨至14132.67吨。库存方面，SHFE银库存日增8.4吨至 949.2吨；截止5月16日当周的SGX白银库存周减91.8吨至1482.5吨。 【本周关注】 贵金属日报 短期震荡 中长期看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月23日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格震荡调整，美指回升抑制贵金属价格，且日盘opec+讨论7月再次大规模增产消息引发 黄金跟随原油回落。昨日美债汇抛售压力暂缓。最终黄金2506合约收报3295.1美元/盎司，-0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The West Asset Management's "Ji Ji Hong" three-month holding mixed fund of funds (FOF) has triggered the termination clause and officially started the liquidation process due to its net asset value falling below 200 million yuan by May 17, 2025, leading to the failure of the company's only FOF product [2][4][14]. Fund Overview - The "Ji Ji Hong" FOF was established on May 17, 2022, and was designed with an "internal credit enhancement" feature, where fund managers subscribed with at least 10 million yuan of their own funds and committed to holding it for at least three years [4][7]. - The fund's structure showed that institutional holdings consistently exceeded individual holdings, indicating a focus on aligning the interests of the management with investors [4][6]. Performance Metrics - As of the first quarter of 2025, the A-class net value of the fund had decreased by 14.31%, while the C-class fell by 15.38%, significantly underperforming the benchmark by 16.98% and 18.05% respectively [9][12]. - The fund's total scale dropped to 0.36 billion yuan by the end of 2024 and fell below 20 million yuan by the first quarter of 2025, well below the liquidation threshold [12][14]. Management Background - Fund managers Ji Chengxiang and Liu Muling had no prior public fund management experience, with Ji having 17 years in the securities industry and Liu being a rising star in asset management [7][9]. - The fund's management faced challenges, resulting in a loss of 1.9872 million yuan, leading to the eventual liquidation of the fund [9][12]. Company Context - West Asset Management's shareholder turmoil, including the freezing of shares held by its second-largest shareholder, has contributed to a decline in investor confidence, although it did not directly affect fund operations [12][13]. - The company has a long-standing "strong bond, weak stock" structure, with over 87% of its management scale in bond and money market funds, while equity products account for less than 7% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the CSI 300 rose 1.12%, and the overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds decreased by 0.10% to 87.66% [2][7]. - The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.23 to 3.02 years, and the median duration of short - term pure bond funds increased by 0.01 to 0.97 years [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Stock Position Estimation - The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds has shown a volatile trend recently. Active equity funds' estimated stock position rose 0.17% to 90.16%, while partial - equity hybrid funds' position decreased 0.16% to 87.08% [7]. - The number of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds with an overall increase or decrease in position ranging from 0% to 1% was 805, followed by 275 funds with a range from - 1% to 0% [11]. - Funds with a scale of 2 - 5 billion and 5 - 8 billion slightly increased their positions, while other scale funds slightly reduced their positions [11]. - In terms of fund holding styles, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion in fund holdings. This week, value stocks were slightly added, and growth stocks were slightly reduced. The proportion of small - cap stocks in fund holdings was relatively high. This week, large - cap and mid - cap stocks were slightly added, and small - cap stocks were slightly reduced [13]. - The top 5 industries held by active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week were electronics (14.99%), power equipment (9.28%), pharmaceutical biology (6.49%), automobiles (6.49%), and machinery (6.29%). The top 3 industries with increased positions were national defense and military industry (+0.50%), non - bank finance (+0.35%), and computer (+0.07%); the top 3 industries with reduced positions were pharmaceutical biology (-0.20%), light industry manufacturing (-0.16%), and electronics (-0.11%) [16]. 3.2 Bond Fund Duration Estimation - The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond increased by 5bps. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.23 to 3.02 years, ranking at the 99.70% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 2.70 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration increased by 0.09 to 1.55 years. The median duration of short - term pure bond funds increased by 0.01 to 0.97 years [2][19]. - The median duration of credit bond funds increased by 0.24 to 2.70 years, with 6% of actively - operated funds and 25% of conservatively - operated funds. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.35 to 4.33 years, with 51% of actively - operated funds and 8% of conservatively - operated funds [2][19]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds increased by 0.24 to 2.70 years, ranking at the 99.70% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 2.41 years, and the duration divergence increased. The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.35 to 4.33 years, ranking at the 100.00% percentile in the past 5 years [22]. - The estimated duration of credit bond funds this week was concentrated in the range of [2.5, 3) (171 funds), followed by [2, 2.5) (152 funds). The estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in the range of [5, +∞) (103 funds), followed by [4, 4.5) (52 funds) [26]. - Among credit bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations (above the 80% percentile of their own duration in the past year) was 6.47%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations (below the 20% percentile of their own duration in the past year) was 24.71%. Among interest - rate bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations was 51.42%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations was 7.95% [27]. - The yield to maturity of the 1 - year China Development Bank bond increased by 3bps. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds increased by 0.01 to 0.97 years, ranking at the 93.30% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 0.97 years. The duration divergence decreased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration decreased by 0.00 to 0.46 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds increased by 0.01 to 3.26 years [31].

Core Insights - BlackRock reported a total market value of $4.76 trillion for its Q1 2025 holdings, down 3.6% from $4.94 trillion in the previous quarter [1][2] - The fund added 238 new stocks, increased holdings in 2006 stocks, reduced holdings in 2721 stocks, and completely sold out of 197 stocks [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 25.39% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The largest holding is Apple (AAPL.US) with 1.14 billion shares valued at approximately $253.27 billion, representing 5.32% of the portfolio, an increase of 1.49% from the previous quarter [3][7] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) is the second largest holding with 583 million shares valued at about $218.96 billion, making up 4.60% of the portfolio, up by 1.22% [3][7] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) ranks third with 1.90 billion shares valued at around $206.12 billion, accounting for 4.33% of the portfolio, an increase of 0.64% [4][7] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is fourth with 703 million shares valued at approximately $133.83 billion, representing 2.81% of the portfolio, up by 2.15% [5][7] - Meta (META.US) is fifth with 166 million shares valued at about $95.89 billion, making up 2.01% of the portfolio, an increase of 1.05% [6][7] Trading Activity - The top five purchases included SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US), Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US), Visa (V.US), AbbVie (ABBV.US), and Eli Lilly (LLY.US) [7][9] - The top five sales included Marvell Technology (MRVL.US), Adobe (ADBE.US), The Trade Desk (TTD.US), Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US), and Eaton (ETN.US) [8][9]

Core Insights - Soros Fund Management reported a total market value of $6.70 billion for Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.68% increase from the previous quarter's $6.65 billion [1][2] - The fund added 97 new stocks, increased holdings in 49 stocks, reduced holdings in 45 stocks, and completely sold out of 78 stocks during the quarter [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 27.51% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The largest holding is Smurfit WestRock (SW.US) with 6.85 million shares valued at approximately $309 million, representing 4.61% of the portfolio, a decrease of 2.75% from the previous quarter [2][4] - First Solar (FSLR.US, CALL) is the second-largest holding with 1.6 million shares valued at about $202 million, making up 3.02% of the portfolio, and this was a new position [3][4] - AstraZeneca (AZN.US) ranks third with 2.74 million shares valued at approximately $202 million, accounting for 3.01% of the portfolio, with a reduction of 13.10% in shares held [3][4] - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US, CALL) is the fourth largest holding with 2.15 million shares valued at around $196 million, representing 2.92% of the portfolio, and an increase of 64.12% in shares held [3][4] - SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US) is the fifth largest holding with approximately 314,000 shares valued at about $176 million, making up 2.62% of the portfolio, with a significant increase of 165.93% in shares held [3][4] Trading Activity - The top five new purchases included First Solar (FSLR.US, CALL), Spotify (SPOT.US) notes, Central Garden & Pet (CENT.US) notes, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US), and American Electric Power (AEP.US) [5][6] - The top five sold positions included Akamai (AKAM.US) notes, Alphabet (GOOGL.US), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US), Ford Motor Company (F.US) notes, and iShares Russell 2000 ETF put options [5][6]

Core Insights - Tiger Global's total market value for Q1 2025 reached $26.6 billion, a slight increase from $26.5 billion in the previous quarter, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter growth of 5.36% [1][2] - The fund added 5 new stocks to its portfolio, increased holdings in 14 stocks, reduced holdings in 2 stocks, and completely exited 9 stocks during the quarter [1][2] - The top 10 holdings accounted for 62.74% of the total portfolio value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The largest holding is Meta (META.US) with approximately 7.47 million shares valued at about $4.3 billion, representing 16.18% of the portfolio [2][3] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) is the second-largest holding with around 6.24 million shares valued at approximately $2.3 billion, which is 8.81% of the portfolio, showing a 16.78% increase in shares from the previous quarter [3][4] - Other significant holdings include Sea (SE.US), Google (GOOGL.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US), with respective portfolio percentages of 7.87%, 5.99%, and 4.71% [3][4] Trading Activity - The top five new purchases included Applovin (APP.US), Zillow-C (Z.US), GE Vernova (GE.US), Block (XYZ.US), and Zillow-A (ZG.US) [4][5] - The top five sold-out positions were Apollo Global Management (APO.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), Uber (UBER.US), Datadog (DDOG.US), and Atlassian (TEAM.US) [5][6] - The turnover rate for the portfolio was 25.93%, indicating a relatively active trading strategy [2]

新能源汽车板块2025Q1持仓占总市值比重为5.20%，环比下降0.09pct。2024Q1-2025Q1 持仓比例分别为5.09%、5.06%、5.25%、5.29%、5.20%。1）上游锂矿2025Q1整体持仓下降 0.56pct至1.64%；2）中游板块持仓整体下降0.98pct至8.86%，结构件、正极、隔膜、添加 剂、铝箔、铜箔持仓上升，电池、负极、电解液持仓下降；3）核心零部件、整车持仓 2025Q1上升，充电桩下降；4）新技术板块2025Q1上升0.89pct至1.68%，钠电池、复合集流 体均上涨。 新能源：光伏、风电、核电均下降 光伏板块2025Q1持仓占总市值比重环比下降至3.33%，环比-0.80pct，2024Q1-2025Q1持 仓比例分别4.45%、3.88%、4.15%、4.13%、3.33%。硅片、电池上升，硅料、组件、逆变器 持仓下降。1）硅料环节下降0.68pct；2）硅片环节上升0.97pct；3）电池上升1.27pct；4）一 体化组件下降1.10pct；5）逆变器环节下降1.70pct；6）辅材环节：胶膜、玻璃、支架、 EPC、设备、金刚线、银浆、石英坩埚均下降。 东 ...

贵金属日报：高位震荡 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月9日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场延续震荡调整，因美联储利率决议及会后声明传递偏鹰信号不着急降息及美指明显回 升，以及美英贸易谈判缓和避险情绪。接下来焦点转向周内中美贸易谈判。最终黄金2506合约收报 3310.4美元/盎司，-2.4%；美白银2507合约收报于32.605美元/盎司，-0.57%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合 约收报790.78元/克，-1.41%；SHFE白银2506合约收8094元/千克，-1.78%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为83.5%，降息25个基点的概率为 16.5%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为29.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为60.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为10.7%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为42.1%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为39.4%，累计降息75个基点的概率为6.2%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增 2.01吨至93 ...

2025 年 4 月，海外纯多头基金在中国股票市场出现了 53 亿美元的显著资金流出，扭转了自 2 月以来连续两个月的流入趋势。此次流出由被动基金（37 亿 美元）和主动基金（16 亿美元）共同推动。南下资金势头依旧强劲，2025 年前 4 个月的流入量达到 2024 年全年的 75%。 海外注册基金流动情况 中国股票遭遇海外注册基金大规模流出（53 亿美元），终结 2 月以来的两月流入趋势：资金流动主要由被动基金流出（37 亿美元，3 月为流入 25 亿美 元）和主动基金流出（16 亿美元，3 月流出 20 亿美元）驱动（图表 2）。 截至 4 月 30 日，累计海外主动基金流动（净额）回到 2025 年 2 月底水平：4 月的流出抵消了 3 月约 50% 的流入，同时海外主动基金累计流动规模触及 2022 年底以来的历史低位（图表 4、图表 5）。根据最新数据，全球基金、亚洲（不含日本）基金和新兴市场基金对中国股票的低配比例分别小幅增加 1.3 个百分点、2.0 个百分点和 3.2 个百分点。 按行业划分 增持最多：阿里巴巴、比亚迪、携程集团和中国移动。 减持最多：腾讯和小米。 中国国内基金流动情况 中国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4] Core Insights - The banking sector's revenue is supported by traditional interest margin business, with provisions bolstering performance [4] - Active funds slightly reduced their holdings in the banking sector, while northbound funds increased their positions [6] - The overall market trend shows a divergence where active funds are pulling back, but certain cyclical stocks like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank are seeing increased investment [6] Summary by Sections Active Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, active funds reduced their holdings in the banking sector to 4%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][9] - The low allocation difference for active funds in the banking sector is 8.33%, which has widened by 14 basis points compared to Q4 2024 [12] Passive Fund Holdings - The performance of technology stocks has siphoned off investments from major indices, leading to a decrease in passive funds' holdings in banking stocks [6] - By the end of Q1 2025, passive funds held a total market value of 182.4 billion yuan in banking stocks, down 1.84% from the end of 2024 [6] Northbound Fund Holdings - Northbound funds increased their holdings in the banking sector, with a net inflow of 4.6% compared to the end of Q4 2024 [6] - The total market value held by northbound funds in banking stocks reached 227.57 billion yuan, representing 2.43% of the total circulating market value of listed banks [6] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the dividend attributes of banking stocks, suggesting a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [6] - Two main investment lines are identified: high-dividend large banks (e.g., Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank) and city commercial banks with strong regional advantages [6]