目录 信息科技产业2026年年度策略 拥抱"AI+"与商业航天两大投资主线 信息技术产业研究团队 证券分析师：王秀钢 SAC NO:S1120519020001 徐 康 SAC NO:S1120525070004 2025年12月31日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 01 1 市场复盘：板块估值迎来重估，关注盈利端兑现 02 AI+ 2 ：AI革命持续演绎，应用&场景锚定价值落脚点 03 3 商业航天：运力迎来拐点时刻，产业进入加速发展期 04 4 选股逻辑及受益标的 05 5 风险提示 1 1 市场复盘：板块估值迎来重估，关注盈利端兑现 2 1.1 市场回顾：中小科创领跑全年行情，10月冲高后震荡分化 图：2025年初至今几大指数涨跌幅情况 3 资料来源：Wind、华西证券研究所 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 沪深300 上证指数 科创50 科创100 中证1000 科创板营收同比增速连续两季度改善：受宏观经济下行及行业周期波动影响，科创板2024年整体营收为14391.40亿元，同比微增 0.64%，高成长属性承压显著。2025 年 ...

本期为证券社交媒体指数(2025年11月)。 | | | #财经 #股友 #股市 #交易 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 财经社牛养 | 英伟达5万亿,释放了什么信号 | | 02 | 成记 | 达 #AI #科普 #金融 #掘金计划 | | | | 大道至简，知易行难，我为何 | | 03 | 兴业证券 | 险投资? #上交所 #价值投资 | | | | 股市 #财经 | | | | 怎么判断身边人炒不炒股,是 | | 04 | 国金证券 | 都这样?#国金证券 #股民交流 | | | | 大盘 #交易 | | | | 核能技术重大突破! 牡基熔盐 | | 05 | 华西证券 | 理 #核能技术 #产业链 #一图 | | | | 华西证券 | | | 中信证券 | 全球资本对于中国必须要有配 | | 06 | TALK | 已是全球的A股。 #2026年A閒 | | | | 略展望 | | | 代目江关立 | 用"银行思维"分析企业,AJ | | 07 | 十7田 山ケ 正学堂 | 路如何探索? #上交所 #企业; | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投资 #A股 # ...

| 光伏设备行业跟踪报告  | | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | | | 刘绮雯(分析师) | 021-23185686 | liuqiwen@gtht.com | S0880525040096 | | | 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.31 太空光伏有望驱动行业长期需求，设备公司率先受益 [Table_Industry] 光伏设备 光伏设备行业跟踪报告 本报告导读： 低轨卫星+太空算力驱动光伏行业长期需求，设备公司有望率先受益。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 告 注：推荐公司 EPS 预测值来自国泰海通证券研究，受益公司 EPS 预测值来自 W ...

Core Insights - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for investors, focusing on state-owned system integrators with core frequency resources for stable beta returns, while also investing in private sector leaders in commercial rockets and satellite components for high alpha returns [3] - The Chinese commercial space industry is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for alpha returns as the industry shifts from prototype development to mass production [5] Policy Cycle - Recent policies have provided a long-term development framework for the commercial space industry, with significant catalysts emerging [12] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasized the importance of commercial space, while the 15th Five-Year Plan positions it alongside new energy vehicles and integrated circuits as a pillar industry [14] - The establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies and action plans aims to enhance efficiency in launch approvals and promote industry standardization [14] Technology, Application, and Capital Resonance - Key technological breakthroughs are expected to lower costs significantly, with reusable rockets like the Zhuque-3 projected to reduce launch costs [30] - The shift from national missions to consumer applications is anticipated, with satellite communication becoming a standard feature in smartphones and vehicles [36] - A surge in capital investment is expected, with the establishment of a national commercial space development fund to support long-term investments [41] Competitive Cycle - SpaceX has established a monopoly-level launch capability, necessitating China to develop its own low-orbit broadband communication network for both commercial and national security reasons [20] External Catalysts - The rapid iteration of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship has created competitive pressure, prompting domestic policies and capital to favor core companies in the space sector [5] Investment Strategy and Valuation Framework - The valuation framework for commercial space is shifting from a broad narrative of total addressable market (TAM) to specific analyses of price-to-sales (PS) ratios and order visibility [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies deeply integrated into the commercial rocket and satellite supply chains, which are expected to benefit first from the transition to mass production [3] Future Catalysts - The report highlights 2026-2027 as critical years for the commercial space industry, with significant developments expected in satellite deployment and launch capabilities [6]

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025. Specifically, a 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio. Additionally, the fiscal surplus may exceed 500 billion yuan, potentially enhancing the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points [1][19]. Industry Insights Electronic Industry - The report highlights that the domestic computing power industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in 2026, with domestic computing chip leaders likely entering a performance realization phase. The demand for domestic GPUs is anticipated to benefit from capacity releases due to advanced process expansions. The competition among domestic computing chip participants for market share is expected to drive the importance of AI ASIC service providers within the supply chain. Key recommendations include companies like Cambricon and Shengke Communication [9]. 3D DRAM - The report indicates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for 3D DRAM, driven by the rapid increase in storage demand from AI hardware deployment. The technology is expected to support various applications, including robotics, AIoT, and automotive sectors. The report recommends companies such as GigaDevice and Beijing Junzheng as key players in this space [10]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is projected to see improvements in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential. The demand for insurance remains strong, and the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to optimize liability costs. The report notes that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, suggesting a "buy" rating for the industry [12]. Environmental Industry - The report emphasizes the value of the waste incineration sector, driven by declining capital expenditures and improving operating cash flows. The acceleration of national subsidies is expected to enhance cash flow, with projections indicating that the sector's dividend potential could increase significantly as capital expenditures normalize [16]. Computer Industry - The report discusses the intersection of state-owned enterprise reform and local revenue enhancement, predicting that 2026 will see intensified management of local state-owned enterprises, leading to accelerated capital operations [13][14]. Space Computing - The report identifies the space computing industry as a rapidly evolving field, crucial for addressing global computing resource bottlenecks. It highlights the strategic importance of this sector and recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages in key areas [15]. Green Bonds - The report tracks the issuance of green bonds, noting an increase in issuance and a decrease in trading volume in the secondary market. This reflects the growing interest in sustainable finance and the potential for investment opportunities in this area [4][8]. Capital Market Trends - The report outlines trends in the capital markets, including the performance of various commodities and the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing. It notes that the copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise due to production capacity increases [11]. AI and Technology - The report forecasts that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major tech companies expected to launch innovative products. The integration of AI into consumer electronics is anticipated to create new market opportunities [9][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the successful launch of the Long March 7 rocket, which placed the Shijian-29 satellites into orbit, marking the 623rd flight of the Long March series [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has introduced guidelines for commercial rocket companies to apply for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating a growing interest in the commercial space sector [1] - The strategic importance of commercial space has been recognized, with the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Bureau and the release of an action plan for high-quality development from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - Investment in China's commercial space sector has surged from 1.1 billion yuan in 2015 to 34.13 billion yuan in 2024, with over 500 companies now operating in the industry [2] - The industry output value has increased from 1 trillion yuan in 2010 to 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, establishing commercial space as a significant industry [2] - The commercial space sector is expected to benefit from technological advancements and policy support, with potential growth in satellite internet and remote sensing applications [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the CSI Satellite Industry Index rose by 2.66%, with the satellite ETF gaining 2.81%, indicating strong market performance [3] - Major stocks within the satellite ETF, such as Changjiang Communication and Xinwei Communication, saw significant increases, with the top ten stocks accounting for 59.23% of the index [3][4] - The satellite ETF has experienced substantial net inflows, totaling 93.7 million yuan over a recent four-day period, reflecting investor interest in the sector [3] Group 4 - The CSI Satellite Industry Index is more focused on upstream manufacturing in the satellite industry, with over 25% weight in aerospace equipment, positioning it to benefit from industry acceleration [4] - The top three stocks in the index account for nearly 30% of its weight, indicating a concentrated investment in leading companies [4] - Higher expected growth rates for the index suggest a greater potential for returns, as it captures the early stages of industry development [4]

亚太卫星（01045）再涨超12%，近两周股价累计涨幅接近40%。截至发稿，股价上涨12%，报2.80港 元，成交额1856.43万港元。 公开资料显示，亚太卫星为中国卫通集团股份有限公司控股子公司。亚太卫星集团当前运营亚太5C、 亚太6C、亚太7号和亚太9号卫星，并通过联营公司运营亚太6D卫星及亚太6E卫星。亚太卫星系统覆盖 亚洲、欧洲、非洲和大洋洲等全球约75%人口之地区，为广播和电信客户提供优质的卫星转发器、卫星 通信与卫星电视广播传输服务。 亚太卫星（01045）再涨超12%，近两周股价累计涨幅接近40%。截至发稿，股价上涨12%，报2.80港 元，成交额1856.43万港元。 公开资料显示，亚太卫星为中国卫通集团股份有限公司控股子公司。亚太卫星集团当前运营亚太5C、 亚太6C、亚太7号和亚太9号卫星，并通过联营公司运营亚太6D卫星及亚太6E卫星。亚太卫星系统覆盖 亚洲、欧洲、非洲和大洋洲等全球约75%人口之地区，为广播和电信客户提供优质的卫星转发器、卫星 通信与卫星电视广播传输服务。 中邮证券表示，商业航天领域正迎来发展机遇，产业链上下游企业值得关注，包括卫星制造、地面设备 及数据处理等环节，相关技 ...

Group 1 - Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) has seen a price increase of over 12%, with a cumulative rise of nearly 40% over the past two weeks, currently trading at 2.77 HKD with a transaction volume of 16.08 million HKD [1] - Asia Pacific Satellite is a subsidiary of China Satellite Communications Group Co., Ltd., operating satellites such as AsiaSat 5C, 6C, 7, and 9, and providing satellite communication and broadcasting services to approximately 75% of the global population across Asia, Europe, Africa, and Oceania [1] - Zhongyou Securities indicates that the commercial space sector is experiencing growth opportunities, with attention on upstream and downstream enterprises in satellite manufacturing, ground equipment, and data processing, driven by technological advancements and policy support [1] Group 2 - The emerging field of space computing is expected to have long-term development potential, with companies likely to achieve breakthroughs in satellite internet and remote sensing applications as the commercialization of space technology accelerates [1] - The industry ecosystem is becoming increasingly complete, and the market size is expected to continue expanding [1]

Group 1 - Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) has seen a rise of over 12%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 40% over the past two weeks, currently trading at 2.77 HKD with a transaction volume of 16.08 million HKD [1] - Asia Pacific Satellite is a subsidiary of China Satellite Communications Group Co., Ltd., operating satellites such as AsiaSat 5C, 6C, 7, and 9, and providing satellite communication and broadcasting services to approximately 75% of the global population across Asia, Europe, Africa, and Oceania [1] - Zhongyou Securities indicates that the commercial space sector is experiencing growth opportunities, with attention on upstream and downstream enterprises in satellite manufacturing, ground equipment, and data processing, driven by technological advancements and policy support [1] Group 2 - The emerging field of space computing is expected to have long-term development potential, with accelerated commercialization of space technology leading to breakthroughs in satellite internet and remote sensing applications [1] - The industry ecosystem is becoming increasingly complete, and the market size is anticipated to continue expanding [1]

消息面上，12月31日，钧达股份披露的投资者关系活动记录表显示，目前主流太空能源方案在成本控 制、轻量化设计、柔性适配 等方面存在一定局限，难以适配批量部署与成本敏感型商业航天需求，而 钙钛矿光伏技术凭借超轻量化、低成本、高抗辐照性、 可柔性卷展等核心优势，有望成为破解太空能 源瓶颈、支撑太空经济规模化发展的革命性解决方案。公司与尚翼光电正在根据下游客户需求，积极推 动产品量产，加强产品服务能力，开拓布局国内及北美商业航天及太空算力市场。 钧达股份（002865）(02865)盘初一度涨超7%，截至发稿，涨4.59%，报21.44港元，成交额4328.01万港 元。 国金证券此前指出，空间轨道成必争之地，太空应用有望再造地面级市场规模：国际电信联盟"先到先 得"规则进一步放大了商业卫星领域大国竞争的紧迫性，全球低轨卫星组网建设与太空算力产业进入爆 发式增长周期。光伏作为当前商业化太空场景唯一能源解决方案，市场对其的核心诉求正在从单一 的"可靠与效率"，迭代为"高效、轻质、低成本、柔韧"的综合系统能力，根据该行测算，到2030年全球 太空光伏市场将向万亿规模展望。 ...