Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China-US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expectation of a recovery in manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. Although demand remains weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro environment [2] - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The macro situation is a more important factor affecting prices than the weak fundamentals [11] - For industrial silicon, its price is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and is subject to the influence of coking coal futures prices. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [14] - For polysilicon, its supply - demand pattern may improve marginally due to production cuts, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 123,040 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.919017 million lots, an increase of 39,567 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.422835 million lots, a decrease of 47,384 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - Rebar shows both increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory de - stocking, performing neutrally overall. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in demand, but the production is still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remains at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.19% (-17.50). The open interest changed by -5350 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 918,400 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.34 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.61% [4] Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, with FMG showing a significant decrease. Shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly, and the near - end arrivals rebounded rapidly to the highest level of the year after rhythm fluctuations [5] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those being restarted. The profitability of steel mills hit a new low for the year, and some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline. Environmental restrictions in Hebei also affected pig iron production [5] - In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to increase, while steel mill inventories decreased. The terminal data was neutral. Fundamentally, pig iron output continued to decline, iron ore demand weakened, and inventory pressure remained [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.38% during the day, closing at 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.47% during the day, closing at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 26 yuan/ton to the futures [9] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal and lack a major contradiction. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [11] - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's market, with relatively low operability [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9140 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+40). The weighted contract open interest changed by -8769 lots to 399,774 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -240 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [13] - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,065 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-345). The weighted contract open interest changed by -13 lots to 258,086 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -3815 yuan/ton for the main contract [16] Strategy Views - The supply pressure of industrial silicon persists. Although production cuts continue in the southwest during the dry season, production in the northwest continues to rise, and weekly production has not reached its peak. On the demand side, some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of silicone DMC has decreased and is expected to remain stable in the short term. The cost of electricity in the southwest during the dry season and coking coal prices provide support for the industrial silicon futures price [14] - Some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly. The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1083 yuan/ton, down 0.73% (-8). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million boxes, a decrease of 823,000 boxes (-1.24%). Among the top 20 long - position holders, 37,089 long positions were reduced today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 36,309 short positions were reduced today [19] - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton, down 0.81% (-10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1162 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons (-1.24%), including 886,400 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 48,100 tons, and 815,600 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 48,000 tons. Among the top 20 long - position holders, 64,210 long positions were increased today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 84,522 short positions were increased today [21] Strategy Views - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement due to the cold - repair plan of production lines in Shahe and the "anti - involution" policy, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 4, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trade sideways today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, oil prices rebounding due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the Sino-US meeting, and the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing [4]. - PP is also expected to trade sideways today, with the main contract fluctuating, oil prices rebounding, and downstream peak season demand supporting [6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to polyolefin costs. The Sino - US leaders' meeting led to the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe in late October led to an oil price rebound. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, while the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6910 (-60), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, which is bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound and the Sino - US meeting reaching a phased easing; negative factors include weaker year - on - year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The Sino - US meeting and Russian oil sanctions affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current PP delivery spot price is 6550 (-80), with overall neutral fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 26, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 tons (-4.3), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors are the same as LLDPE; negative factors also include weaker year - on - year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6910 (-60), the 01 contract price is 6888 (-11), the basis is 22 (-49), and the PE comprehensive inventory shows different changes in various types [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6550 (-80), the 01 contract price is 6576 (-14), the basis is - 26 (-66), and the PP comprehensive inventory also has different changes in various types [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth rates and changes. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed, with the import dependence gradually decreasing and the consumption growth rate showing fluctuations [15].

Economic Overview - The economic performance report for the first three quarters has been released, showing resilience and progress despite external pressures and internal challenges [2] - 21 provinces have achieved growth rates that either exceed or match the national average of 5.2%, indicating strengthened economic resilience [3] Economic Scale - Guangdong and Jiangsu have both surpassed the 10 trillion yuan mark in GDP, reaching 10,517.698 billion yuan and 10,281.1 billion yuan respectively [2] - The threshold for the top ten economic provinces has increased from 3.7 trillion yuan to 4 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] Growth Rates - Tibet leads with a growth rate of 7.1%, while Gansu has maintained a growth rate above the national average for 15 consecutive quarters at 6.1% [3] - The Yangtze River Delta region has shown strong economic performance, with a total economic output exceeding 25 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the national total [3] Foreign Trade - The foreign trade data for the first three quarters reflects resilience, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Shandong contributing over 80% to the national import and export growth [4] - Zhejiang's foreign trade reached historical highs, with total import and export values surpassing 4 trillion yuan [4] Domestic Demand - The implementation of proactive macro policies has effectively stabilized the economy, with significant growth in consumer spending observed in provinces like Hainan and Henan [5] - Hainan's retail sales grew by 8.6%, while Henan's retail sales increased by 6.2%, showcasing strong consumer demand [5] Innovation and New Industries - Technological innovation is becoming a key driver of high-quality development, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing in regions like Shanghai and Jiangsu [6] - In the central and western regions, industries such as strategic emerging industries in Henan and high-tech manufacturing in Hubei have shown remarkable growth rates [6] Service Sector Development - The modern service industry is accelerating, with significant growth in information technology services in Beijing and research and development revenues in Hunan [7] - The film and television production industry in Henan has seen a dramatic increase in revenue, growing by 107.8% due to the rapid development of the micro-short drama industry [7] Future Outlook - Despite the complex external environment, provinces are actively planning for the fourth quarter to ensure the achievement of annual economic goals [7] - Guangdong and Shanghai have outlined strategies to enhance economic operations and contribute to national economic stability [7]

长三角地区经济表现亮眼。前三季度，长三角三省一市经济总量超过25万亿元，占全国比重的近四分之 一，且增速均高于全国平均增速，动力源地区引擎作用不断增强。 今年以来，外部环境不稳定、不确定因素增多，给我国外贸运行带来压力。前三季度，多地外贸数据彰 显韧性。广东、江苏、浙江、上海、山东五省市进出口合计增长5.2%，对全国进出口增长的贡献超过 八成。其中，浙江省进出口、出口、进口总值分别站上4万亿元、3万亿元、1万亿元台阶，均创历史同 期新高。中部地区部分省份外贸增势强劲。前三季度，安徽省货物进出口总额7262.5亿元，同比增长 15.7%；河南、湖北进出口总值均创历史同期新高。 有效需求稳步释放 今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，"两新""两重"政策加力扩围，有力稳住了经济运行的基 本盘。各地抢抓国家宏观政策机遇，落实落细政策举措，推动消费、投资稳步扩大。 31个省份经济运行"三季报"均已发布。今年以来，面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面，我国 经济发展顶住压力稳中有进。从地方层面看，各地全力以赴稳增长、扩需求、育动能，多个省份经济总 量迈上新台阶，21个省份增速跑赢或持平于全国水平，发展韧性不断增 ...

Group 1 - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has resumed accepting applications for the "Ruyi Gold Accumulation" business, including account openings, active accumulation, new fixed accumulation plans, and physical gold withdrawals [1][2] - The resumption of these services comes after a previous announcement that, effective November 3, 2025, ICBC would suspend these services due to macroeconomic policy impacts and risk management requirements [1][2] - Customers with existing fixed accumulation plans will not be affected in terms of execution, redemption, or account closure [2] Group 2 - Similarly, China Construction Bank (CCB) announced that it will suspend applications for its "Easy Storage Gold" business, including real-time purchases, new investment purchases, and physical gold exchanges, starting from November 3, 2025 [3] - Existing customers of CCB will still be able to execute their investment plans, redeem, and close accounts without any impact [3] - Both banks have advised customers to stay informed about the recovery of these services through future announcements [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is the implementation of a more proactive macro policy, which will directly influence China's fiscal and financial policies over the next five years [1][2] - There is a significant emphasis on "unlocking potential" through the management of existing assets, with state-owned administrative assets totaling 68.2 trillion yuan and net assets of 55.4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating a vast resource that can be activated for economic growth [1] - Recent initiatives, such as Anhui's conference on "large asset" management, aim to activate idle government assets and resources, potentially leading to new industries and job creation [1] Group 2 - The plan highlights the need for "collaboration" between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance the roles of employment, consumption, investment, and trade, promoting an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [2] - An example of this collaboration is the recent implementation of fiscal subsidies for consumer loans, demonstrating a joint effort to support consumption [2] - Despite potential challenges and uncertainties in the next five years, the underlying strengths of China's industrial system, market scale, talent reserves, and innovation capacity remain intact, supporting the long-term positive trend in economic and social development [2]

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of this week's hot events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including key economic data releases and policy decisions from different countries [2][3] Weekly Key Focus - On November 3rd at 09:45, Markit will release China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI; on November 7th at 11:00, the General Administration of Customs will announce October import and export data; at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will release October foreign exchange and gold reserves; on November 9th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce October CPI and PPI [2] - Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials, and negotiations on ending the US government shutdown for their impacts on the futures market [2] Weekly Hot Event Preview November 3rd - Markit will release China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI at 09:45, with an expected value of 50.9 and a previous value of 51.2. A slight drop may mildly suppress the rise of industrial and stock index futures but help the rise of treasury bond futures [3] - The US ISM will announce the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected and previous value of 49.1 [4] November 4th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late October at 09:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [5] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 11:30, and its governor will hold a press conference at 12:30. It is expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% [8] November 5th - Markit will release China's October SPGI Services PMI at 09:45, with a previous value of 52.9 [9] - The US ADP will announce the change in October ADP employment at 21:15, with an expected value of - 20,000 and a previous value of - 32,000. A higher value may help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures but suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [10] - The US ISM will announce the US October ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 23:00, with an expected value of 50.9 and a previous value of 50. A slight increase may suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [11] - The US EIA will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending October 31st at 23:30, with a previous decrease of 6.858 million barrels. A continued decline may help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [12] November 6th - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 20:00, and its governor will hold a press conference at 20:30. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% [13] November 7th - The General Administration of Customs will announce October import and export data at 11:00. It is expected that exports will grow 7.1% year - on - year and imports 1.5% year - on - year, both lower than the previous values. This may suppress the rise of stock index and related commodity futures [14] - The People's Bank of China will release October foreign exchange and gold reserves at 16:00, with September foreign exchange reserves at $3,338.658 billion and gold reserves at 74.06 million ounces [16] - The University of Michigan will announce the preliminary value of the November Consumer Confidence Index at 23:00, with an expected value of 53 and a previous value of 53.6. A slight drop may suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures but help the rise of gold and silver futures [17] November 9th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce October CPI and PPI at 09:30. It is expected that CPI will decline 0.0% year - on - year and PPI will decline 2.2% year - on - year, both better than the previous values. This may mildly help the rise of commodity and stock index futures but suppress the rise of treasury bond futures [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For building materials, it is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downwards and showing weak performance [1][2] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Building materials continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed strong performance. The Fed cut interest rates, but Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the market's expectation of another rate cut in December to 63% from over 90% earlier this week [1] - In October 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants increased more than expected, but the aluminum processing PMI dropped to 48.9%, below the boom - bust line, mainly due to weak terminal demand and high aluminum prices [2] - On Thursday last week, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 619,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous Thursday and a decrease of 31,000 tons from the post - holiday high. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 22,000 tons, and the weak inventory accumulation pressure in November is expected to have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2] Later Concerns - For building materials, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum ingots, pay attention to macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Metals**: Iron ore, coal coke, rebar - Mainly in a process of returning to fundamentals with varying trends; steel products in shock adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: In a state of shock, with weak overall demand and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Weak, with the glass industry facing an over - supply situation [2]. - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Market short - term consolidation, medium - term upward trend, recommended long - holding of stock index [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market trend shows a slight rebound, recommended light - long holding of treasury bonds [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: High - level shock, with multiple factors influencing price trends [3]. - **Log**: Weak shock, with supply pressure increasing and demand likely to weaken [6]. - **Pulp**: Bottom consolidation, with cost support weakening and demand poor [6]. - **Double - offset Paper**: Weak shock, with supply pressure and cautious market expectations [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: Range operation, with supply being abundant and demand weak [6]. - **Meal**: Short - term rebound, affected by factors such as US soybean prices and South American weather [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Shock - strong, with factors such as demand increase and price differentials supporting the market [7]. - **Rubber**: Shock, with raw material supply and demand and inventory factors affecting prices [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX for observation; PTA in shock; MEG, PR, PF for observation, with different supply - demand and cost factors influencing each [9]. Core Views - The macro - favorable policies such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US initial meeting have landed, and the prices of black metals are returning to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, affected by factors such as production, demand, policies, and international situations [2][3]. - The stock index futures market has short - term fluctuations but a medium - term upward trend, while the treasury bond market shows a slight rebound. Gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases [3]. - In the agricultural and forestry products market, the supply and demand of logs, pulp, and other products are changing, and the prices show different trends. The oils and fats and meal markets are affected by factors such as international trade and weather [6][7]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as weight, demand, and price differentials, showing a shock - strong trend. The rubber and polyester product markets are also affected by multiple factors such as raw material supply, demand, and cost [7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase as Rio Tinto and VALE may increase production to meet annual targets. The supply - demand pattern is "supply is loose, demand is low, and port inventory is accumulating". The core of the decline in hot metal is the weak demand in the steel industry, especially in the real estate sector. The new construction of real estate has dropped to the 2005 level. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports across the country has reached an 8 - month high. Future price changes depend on four main lines: the implementation rhythm of the "anti - involution" policy for coal and coke, the profit and maintenance elasticity of steel mills, the release intensity of terminal demand, and macro - policy signals [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Driven by multiple news such as the high - quality development of the coal industry in the "14th Five - Year Plan", mine accidents, and production restrictions, the prices have risen. The core contradiction in the market is the extremely low profit level of steel mills. If the finished steel market continues to weaken, the scope of steel mill maintenance may expand, which will put pressure on the raw material end. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short - term trend is shock - strong [2]. - **Rebar**: The static valuation is low, and the core of the decline in hot metal is the weak steel demand. The new construction of real estate has dropped to the 2005 level. The supply - demand contradiction of steel still exists, and the price is mainly in shock adjustment. The decline in steel prices can be stopped if the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 reaches more than 5% and the "anti - involution" policy is strongly implemented. The real estate development investment data from January to September decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and the decline rate increased by 1% compared with January to August. The year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment from January to September dropped to 1.1% and 4% respectively [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The demand is weak, and the inventory of glass factories is increasing. The contradiction between the mid - stream shipment and the weak downstream demand has led to the failure of the apparent demand to recover. The continuous decline in real estate completion during the peak season has dragged down the demand outlook. To resolve the over - supply contradiction in the entire industry chain, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year. The short - term price is in low - level shock [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.47%, the SSE 50 Index fell by 1.15%, the CSI 500 Index fell by 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.29%. The market short - term consolidates, and the medium - term trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of funds. The spot interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes,避险 attributes, and commodity attributes. The Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term disturbing factors. The short - term price of gold is expected to remain in high - level shock [3]. Agricultural and Forestry Products - **Log**: The daily average shipment volume of ports has increased, but the demand may weaken in the future. The import volume in the fourth quarter shows a seasonal increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The port inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. The spot market price is relatively stable, and the price is expected to show a weak shock trend [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is poor. The paper industry has low profitability, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - price pulp. The price is expected to be in bottom consolidation [6]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The new production capacity in South China has increased, and the supply pressure still exists. The market expectation is cautious, and the price is expected to show a weak shock trend [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is favorable, but the high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the possible postponement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy have affected the market. The domestic supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall price is expected to continue range operation [6]. - **Meal**: Affected by the recovery of US soybean exports, the price of US soybeans has risen, which has increased the cost of domestic soybean imports. The planting progress of soybeans in South America is affected by weather, and the domestic supply of meal has increased, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to have a short - term rebound [6][7]. Livestock Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight has increased slightly, and the demand has increased with the decrease in temperature. The price of large pigs is firm, and the price of standard pigs has also risen. The slaughter volume may increase slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs is expected to rise [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in different regions is affected by weather. The demand side has an increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The inventory of natural rubber is decreasing, but the expected increase in future supply will suppress raw material prices, and the price is expected to show a wide - range shock [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX is affected by potential supply risks and short - term supply - demand changes. PTA has a marginal improvement in supply - demand but is affected by cost. MEG has high supply and potential over - supply in the future. PR has increased supply pressure, and PF is expected to be weakly sorted [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations, while facing challenges like weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter. For PP, similar factors are at play, with downstream peak - season demand providing some support [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the cost of polyolefins. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30, the US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation measures in the maritime and logistics sectors for one year, while China adjusted counter - measures accordingly. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe were upgraded, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with high - level operations, and the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6970 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-99,000), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, influenced by the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, with limited cost support for polyolefins. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and the sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-43,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, affected by the Sino - US meeting, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the relatively high - level neutral industrial inventory [6] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6970 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6899 (-69), the basis is 71, the import price in US dollars is 813 (0), the import - converted price is 7107 (12), and the import price difference is - 137 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts is 12,706 (-39) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6590 (-61), the basis is 40, the import price in US dollars is 790 (0), the import - converted price is 6910 (11), and the import price difference is - 280 (-11). The number of warehouse receipts is 14,569 (0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. The production capacity has increased year by year, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]