瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 螺纹钢市场周报 炉料反弹+宏观利好 螺纹期价止跌走高 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月19日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3119（+59），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3320（+40）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。181.68（+2.9），同比（-37.05）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回升。本期表需208.64（+5.55），（同比-30.04）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存452.54（-26.96），（同比+49.52）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做 ...

内需主导，提质增效 ——2025 年 12 月政治局会议学习体会 观 本报告导读： 本次会议保持了"更加积极有为"的宏观政策定调，同时更加注重"提质增效"，扩大 内需和民生仍是重点任务，关注后续中央经济工作会议具体政策部署。 投资要点： 具体而言，2026 年经济工作或有以下部署： 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 2025-12-19 [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 会议通稿内容精炼，奠定了"内需主导，提质增效"的总基调，更多 具体政策的增量信息需关注后续召开的中央经济工作会议。总体来 看，会议通稿体现出三大特征： 一是，内需置于工作任务首位，"坚持内需主导"也是对"十五五"规 划建议提出"促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济 发展模式"的有效落实。具体政策抓手有望在 12 月中央经济工作会 议中披露更多信息。 二是，宏观政策保持"更加积极有为"的定调，同时更加注重提升政 策有效性。政策取向上，货币政策 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival (from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month), affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel plants has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently, with a downward - moving price center due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment, and the winter storage is sluggish this year [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than 3% in September, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January has slightly increased [2] - The new production capacity of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum is steadily released, and the weekly output has increased. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% [3] - The primary aluminum alloy industry's operating rate remained at 60%, the same as last week; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate was stable at 65.0% but under pressure; the aluminum cable operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic growth potential during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5%, with the possibility of exceeding this range [1] - Factors contributing to growth include capital and labor inputs, which are expected to support over 3% growth, while total factor productivity is projected to contribute around 2% [1] - To achieve this growth potential, effective management of the transition from real growth to nominal growth is crucial, with a recommendation for more proactive macroeconomic policies and maintaining inflation around 2% [1] Group 2 - The expected nominal growth rate, if real growth reaches 5% with a 2% inflation rate, would be 7%, leading to an anticipated increase in China's economic total by 30 trillion to 40 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - By 2035, the goal is to double the economic total from approximately 100 trillion yuan in 2020 to 200 trillion yuan, with per capita GDP projected to exceed $20,000 [1] - Regarding income levels, China's GNI for 2024 is projected at $13,660, just $275 short of the World Bank's high-income threshold, indicating a potential transition to high-income status by 2025 or 2026 [2]

Group 1 - Multiple international institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy, with the IMF increasing its 2025 growth prediction by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and the World Bank raising it by 0.4 percentage points [1] - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have also adopted a positive outlook, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its 2025 growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.0% [1] - This upward revision occurs amidst a globally unstable economic environment, where the IMF projects a global growth rate of only 3.2% for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Resilience is a key theme highlighted by various institutions regarding China's economy, with the IMF noting significant resilience despite multiple shocks [2] - The World Bank states that China's economic performance has exceeded initial expectations for the year, particularly in exports [2] Group 3 - The resilience of China's economy is attributed to strong macroeconomic policies and the coordinated efforts of the "three drivers" of growth [3] - The Chinese government has prioritized expanding domestic demand, with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods contributing to a recovery in consumer spending [3] - In the first three quarters, China's retail sales grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year [3] Group 4 - China's foreign trade remains robust, with a 4.0% year-on-year increase in total goods imports and exports in the first three quarters, and a 6.2% increase in trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries [3] - The World Bank emphasizes that the diversification of export markets is a crucial support for China's trade resilience [3] Group 5 - China's export competitiveness is no longer primarily reliant on price, as the country has established a strong presence in advanced industries such as electric vehicles and solar panels, allowing it to withstand moderate currency appreciation [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined a more proactive macroeconomic policy approach, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and a strong domestic market for 2026 [4] Group 6 - The IMF's managing director expressed confidence in China's potential for stronger economic growth, projecting that China's contribution to global economic growth could remain around 30% in the coming years [6] - China's economic growth is seen as a stabilizing force for the global economy, benefiting not only its own development but also the broader world economy [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The product is in a low - level operation, with the fundamentals remaining weakly stable and moving in a low - level consolidation [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data - In November 2025, the national production of crude steel was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%, with a daily output of 2.329 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the production of pig iron was 62.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, with a daily output of 2.078 million tons/day and a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the production of steel was 115.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%, with a daily output of 3.8637 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 1.0% [2] - From January to November 2025, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 892 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 266,970 tons; the production of pig iron was 774 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 231,750 tons; the production of steel was 1.333 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 399,030 tons [2] Group 4: Market Situation and Impact - Recently, the environmental protection production restrictions in Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin in late December have attracted market attention. In Tianjin, most local steel strand factories have received environmental protection production restriction notices, with a 50% production restriction. However, due to recent demand issues, the steel strand manufacturers' production capacity utilization is about 60%, so this production restriction has little impact on them [2] - The product continued the previous day's narrow - range consolidation yesterday, with little change in fundamentals. Weak demand restricts the rebound of steel prices, and the support at the bottom of rebar at 3000 still exists. The domestic meeting last week had no overly unexpected policies, and there is a lack of drivers at the macro level. Currently, rebar has support at the 3000 mark, and attention should also be paid to the support strength of the raw material end [2] Group 5: Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格高位震荡 关注宏观情绪 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强震荡。宏观上美联储内部对利率路径仍有分歧表 态，国内年底政策情绪支撑，关注更多宏观数据指引。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月18日 【原油】 夜盘油价继续反弹。EIA数据显示尽管上周原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油超预期累库。特朗普不断 升级对马杜罗政府施压行为,宣布对进出委内瑞拉的受美国制裁油轮突施"全面彻底"封锁,但要 考虑使用受制裁船只来完成委内瑞拉原油出口的数量较为有限这一事实。美委局势可能带来阶段性 风险溢价,然全球原油供需愈发宽松背景下,和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放 进一步增大供应压力。短期市场多空消息面博弈,油价波动加剧。 (责金属) 本周美国非农等数据验证经济降温轨迹。美联储理事沃勒称货币政策处于限制性区间,仍有降息空 间。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高点，如果实现突破则贵金属强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜增仓震荡,测试短期均线支撑强度。私鲁延长一年现有非法采矿政策。铜市整体持仓高, 昨日上海贴水150元，广东升水75元。2026年供应环境前紧后松，跨年多配冲高潜力仍在。 隔夜沪铝再次站上22000元。迈期铝社库窄幅波动,表观消费尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势未改, 短期多头背靠40日线位置持有,跌破则考虑离场观望。 【铸造 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates that China's economy is expected to grow around 5% in 2025, with a total economic volume reaching approximately 140 trillion yuan, despite facing challenges in the coming year [1][11]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - China will continue to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2][12]. - The total government bond issuance for 2025 is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, which is expected to remain stable in 2026 [2][13]. - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth, with tools including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][14]. Group 2: Income and Employment - A plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be implemented in 2026, aiming to enhance the quality of employment and raise the basic pension for residents [5][15]. - The goal is to synchronize income growth with economic growth, ensuring that labor remuneration increases alongside productivity [6][16]. - Employment policies will prioritize stability, focusing on key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, while promoting training in high-demand industries [7][17]. Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority for 2026, with a focus on balancing goods and service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism and elderly care [8][18]. - Investment is expected to stabilize, with an emphasis on infrastructure projects that enhance consumer services and improve living standards [9][20]. - The government aims to stimulate private investment, particularly in high-tech and service sectors, to boost overall economic activity [10][21].

摩根士丹利宏观策略谈-年终收官时刻以全局视角眺望全球 20251217 摘要 中国名义 GDP 增长预期约为 4%，低于市场普遍预期。财政政策预计温 和前置，侧重基建投资，如城市更新和 AI 算力中心。若上半年形势有变， 或追加相当于 GDP 0.5%的新增财政空间。 货币政策方面，降息降准空间有限，预计全年降息幅度在 10-20 个基点， 更侧重结构性工具。房地产政策方面，按揭利率补贴可能在 2025 年二 季度推出，消费方面，延续以旧换新，并探讨服务业消费补贴。 中国在科技板块、电池、电动汽车、机器人、光伏等新兴产业领域具有 先发优势。预计中国占全球出口市场份额有望从 15%提升至 16%- 17%，受益于企业全球化和人才优势。 中国资本市场信心有所提升，新兴产业企业家精神重燃。政策层面逐步 纠偏，增加对消费、社保的支持，但转型速度偏慢，需关注消费民生问 题。 美联储 12 月降息后，预计 2026 年 1 月和 4 月仍有两次降息，上半年 流动性相对宽松，利好风险资产。美国就业环境面临压力，美联储决策 会考虑此因素。 Q&A 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调是什么？ 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调 ...