"东稳西缓"的宏观超级周 -宏观周报 (7 月 28 日-8 月 3 日) 本周关注:本周国内外密集召开重要会议、公布重要数据,宏观形势整体 ● "东稳西缓",中国政策层面托底内需,美国经济放缓信号明确,贸易摩擦 加剧分化。国内方面,7月政治局会议召开,着重落实落细现有政策,体现 了"立足当下,着眼长远"的战略思维,7月PMI主受季节性因素影响下 滑,"反内卷"重塑供给格局导致价格明显回暖,但基本面需求依然偏弱, 外需出现的边际下滑也值得注意。国债收益率曲线下行,8月 8 日起对新 发债券的利息收入恢复征收增值税,短期由于比价效应可能影响资金配置 意愿。国际方面,新一轮对等关税即将生效,而弱化的经济与劳动数据让美 联储陷入两难。 ● 国内宏观-需求端:(1)消费:居民出行热度平稳,乘用车销量增幅下降。 截至 7 月 31 日, 7 月 地铁客运量增速同比 0.65%、环比 4.61%, 7 月国内 执行航班数平均值为 1.45 万架次,环比 13.1%、同比 2.3%,本周居民出 行热度平稳。据乘联会,7月前27日全国乘用车市场零售 144.4万辆,同 比上涨 7.6%,较上月同期下降 21.0%; (2) ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[8] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[8] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, maintaining a similar pace to Q1[11] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although this represented a decline of 2.0 percentage points from Q1[21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[20] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 9.9% in Q1[20] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7%[30] - The trade surplus remained high due to a "rush to export" effect amid tariff uncertainties[30] Price Indexes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%[33] - The PPI decline was attributed to weak demand, falling costs, and overcapacity in several industries[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, showing stability compared to the previous year[40] - National public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 3.4% to 14.1 trillion yuan[46] Monetary Policy - The central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[53] - New loans in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.92 trillion yuan, with a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors[58]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to appropriately increase efforts in response to changing economic conditions [1][4] - The article highlights the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating a new requirement in the current economic context [1][7] - The article discusses the coherent development of the economic situation, acknowledging both positive trends and significant challenges, which reflects the basic judgment of the economic landscape [2] Group 2 - The focus is on "reasonable quantitative growth" while prioritizing "effective qualitative improvement," which aligns with the ongoing requirement for high-quality development [3] - The article stresses that macro policies must not only be proposed but also effectively implemented to ensure successful economic work this year [4] - The combination of "sustained efforts and timely increases" in policy measures is essential for addressing new situations that may arise in the second half of the year [6] Group 3 - The article underscores the relationship between maintaining policy continuity and enhancing flexibility and foresight, which is crucial for stabilizing expectations among domestic and foreign investors [7] - It emphasizes the need for macro policies to be responsive and adaptable to changing circumstances while also being proactive in anticipating opportunities and challenges [7][9] - The latest deployment from the Central Political Bureau meeting is significant for both immediate economic goals and long-term stability as China approaches a new five-year plan [9]

债市短期修复 国债周报 2025/08/02 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：今年上半年经济数据在受关税影响下整体仍具韧性，7月PMI数据整体低于预期，供需两端有所回落，"反内卷"对价格预期有 所提振，但需求和生产端的配合仍有待观察；新出口订单有一定回落，往后看，在抢出口有所透支以及下半年基数抬升的影响下，出口可能 有一定压力。海外方面，FOMC会议联储表态边际偏鹰，日央行维持利率不变，但美国就业数据低于预期，9月份降息概率增加。 1、中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成 本下 ...

今日摘要 《新闻联播》推出系列报道《习近平总书记今年以来治国理政纪实》，今天播出《奋力打开改革发展新 天地》。 上半年，国内居民出游人次超32亿，同比增长20.6%。 系列报道《铭记历史缅怀先烈》今天播出："刘老庄连"一代代官兵始终保持"不畏强敌、敢打必胜"的血 性胆气，勇往直前、续写荣光。 系列报道《党旗在基层一线高高飘扬》今天来看：北京怀柔区村支书尹春燕和丈夫蔡永章在防汛救灾中 为转移群众不幸被洪水冲走，目前正在全力搜救。 俄罗斯称，俄军在前线全面推进，进展积极。乌克兰称，在波克罗夫斯克击退俄军66次进攻。 联合国儿童基金会警告称，加沙地带儿童面临严重的人道危机。 内容速览 【习近平总书记今年以来治国理政纪实】奋力打开改革发展新天地 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是进一步全面深化改革的重要一年。今年以来，面对错综复杂的国际 国内形势和艰巨繁重的改革发展稳定任务，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门 积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新 成效。《新闻联播》从今天起推出系列报道《习近平总书记今年以来治国理政纪实》，今天播出《奋力 打开改革 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q2 2025 met market expectations, but the fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and real estate sectors faced challenges. The export and industrial added - value in June exceeded expectations. The domestic real estate market continued to decline, and the Chinese economy may face challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand. The "anti - involution" policies may have a more moderate and long - term impact. Policy decisions may be made based on economic changes, and new policies may be introduced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter [84]. Summary by Related Content GDP and Industry Contribution - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% year - on - year respectively in Q2. The contributions of the three industries to GDP in Q2 were 4.6%, 34.2%, and 61.2% respectively [4][6]. GDP Growth Contribution Factors - In Q2 2025, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to GDP growth were 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0% respectively [9]. GDP Deflator - The GDP deflator in Q2 2025 decreased 1.20% year - on - year, showing a negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023 [12]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.7%. General infrastructure investment (including power) grew 8.9% year - on - year, while narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power) grew 4.6% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year [15]. Real Estate Market - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased 0.6% month - on - month. In July, the decline rate of national new housing sales area accelerated [18][21][23]. Social Consumption - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.6%. The growth rates of most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size decreased compared with May [26][28]. Service Industry - In June 2025, the service industry production index grew 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries were relatively high [30]. Foreign Trade - In June 2025, China's exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. In July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [33][36][38]. Industrial Sector - In June 2025, the added - value of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation. The product sales rate was 94.3%, and the industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74.0% [41][43][45]. Employment and Prices - In June 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%. The CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year. In July, agricultural product prices hovered at a low level, and the average domestic gasoline price was higher than that in June [47][49][57]. Manufacturing and Non - Manufacturing PMI - In July 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The manufacturing production continued to expand, while the demand re - entered the contraction range. The service industry activity expectation index increased slightly [68][71][81].

今日摘要 《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在全国生态环境保护大会上的讲话》。 习近平同尼泊尔总统就中尼建交70周年互致贺电。李强同尼泊尔总理互致贺电。 今天是八一建军节。在党中央、中央军委和习近平主席的坚强领导下，全军官兵坚决扛起党和人民赋予 的历史重任，全力以赴打好实现建军一百年奋斗目标攻坚战，向着全面建成世界一流军队砥砺奋进。 赵乐际出席第六次世界议长大会并发言。 各地各部门积极开展防汛救灾工作，妥善安置受灾群众，加快推进灾后重建。 我国宏观政策持续发力、适时加力，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。 世贸组织数据显示，一季度中国带动亚洲服务贸易强劲增长。 内容速览 《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在全国生态环境保护大会上的讲话》 8月1日出版的第15期《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平2023年7月17 日《在全国生态环境保护大会上的讲话》。 习近平同尼泊尔总统就中尼建交70周年互致贺电 李强同尼泊尔总理互致贺电 8月1日，国家主席习近平同尼泊尔总统鲍德尔互致贺电，庆祝中尼两国建交70周年。 【新思想引领新征程】奋斗建军百年 奋进强军一流 今天是八一建军节，英雄的人民军队走过 ...

央视网消息（新闻联播）：记者8月1日从国家发展改革委了解到，我国宏观政策将持续发力、适时加力。 在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设方面，将进一步规范政府行为尺度，制定《妨碍统一市场和公平竞争行为防范事项清单》。依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推 进重点行业产能治理，加快推进价格法修订，将重点治理为排挤竞争对手或独占市场，低于成本价倾销的行为。规范招标投标，规范地方招商引资行为。 在创新方面，将深入实施"人工智能+"行动，大力推进人工智能规模化商业化应用，着力优化人工智能创新生态，加大政策支持力度。 此外，国家发展改革委还将常态化开展政策预研储备，不断完善稳就业、扩内需政策"工具箱"，根据实际需要及时推出。 在全方位扩大内需方面，将加快"两重"建设项目、中央预算内投资项目建设进度。10月份将按计划下达第四批690亿元消费品以旧换新资金，确保资金有序 均衡用到年底。严防"先涨后补"、骗补套补等风险。近期，国家发展改革委还将报批加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具，推动民营企业更多参与国家重大项 目建设。 ...

8月1日周五《新闻联播》要闻17条 1、《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在全国生态环境保护大会上的讲话》； 2、习近平同尼泊尔总统就中尼建交70周年互致贺电 李强同尼泊尔总理互致贺电； 3、【新思想引领新征程】奋斗建军百年 奋进强军一流； 4、赵乐际出席第六次世界议长大会并发言； 5、张国清在河北慰问受灾群众指导救灾和抢修恢复工作； 6、各地各部门积极做好防汛工作 持续展开灾后重建； 7、宏观政策持续发力适时加力 巩固拓展经济回升向好势头； 8、上半年电子信息制造业增加值同比增长11.1%； 9、上半年我国可再生能源新增装机占比超9成； 10、最高法发布劳动争议司法解释 9月1日起施行； 11、四部门发布通知规范"自媒体"医疗科普行为； 12、我国中药饮片标注保质期今起施行； 13、第十五届全国运动会倒计时100天； 14、2025年电影暑期档票房超60亿元； 15、世贸组织数据显示一季度中国带动亚洲服务贸易强劲增长； 16、俄称击落60架乌无人机 乌称击退俄进攻； 17、俄堪察加半岛近海测到约千次余震。 智通财经8月1日电，今天《新闻联播》主要内容有： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the steel products industry are weak, and steel prices are undergoing a correction. The market is mainly influenced by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. It is recommended to mainly observe the market [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Steel Inventory - This week, the total steel inventory was 13.5189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01539 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 0.40952 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0001 million tons; the social inventory was 0.94237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01529 million tons [3] - The inventory of steel billets in major warehouses and ports in Tangshan was 1.223 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0552 million tons and a 12.22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Production Line Operation - Among the 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 27 were actually in operation, with an overall start - up rate of 45.76%, a 5.08% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of profiles was 46.12%, a 0.80% increase from last week [3] Steel Price - On July 31, the ex - factory tax - included price of common square billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was cumulatively reduced by 100 yuan, reaching 3080 yuan per ton [3] Market Situation - During the research period, the steel market trend slowed down week - on - week, trading activity decreased, there was more wait - and - see attitude at high prices, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Some domestic trade resources at ports were still being shipped for export [3] - In terms of weekly data, both supply and demand of rebar decreased and inventory increased, while for hot - rolled steel, both supply, demand, and inventory increased. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak [3]