Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - From the June data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, sales recovery was weak with a slightly wider decline, and the decline in new construction and completion narrowed under the low - base effect. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the restoration of the market's internal driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Development Investment - The cumulative development investment completion amount from January to June 2025 was 466.58 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The growth rate in June was - 12.0%, in May it was - 10.7%, in 2024 it was - 12.9%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 10.6% [1]. New Construction Area - The cumulative new construction area of houses from January to June 2025 was 30.364 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.0%. The growth rate in June was - 9.4%, in May it was - 19.3%, in 2024 it was - 22.8%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 23.0% [1]. Commercial Housing Sales Area - The cumulative commercial housing sales area from January to June 2025 was 45.851 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The growth rate in June was - 5.5%, in May it was - 3.3%, in 2024 it was - 2.9%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 12.9% [1]. Housing Construction Area - The cumulative housing construction area from January to June 2025 had a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The growth rate in 2024 was - 9.1%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 12.7% [1]. Housing Completion Area - The cumulative housing completion area from January to June 2025 was 22.567 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The growth rate in June was - 1.7%, in May it was - 19.5%, in 2024 it was - 17.3%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 27.7% [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][22]. Core Viewpoints - The economy showed stable growth in the first half of 2025, with GDP increasing by 5.3% year-on-year. However, fixed asset investment growth weakened, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from January to May [3][4]. - Infrastructure investment growth also weakened, with total infrastructure investment (including all categories) increasing by 8.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to January to May. Notably, investment in transportation, warehousing, and postal services rose by 5.6% year-on-year, while investment in water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management increased by 3.5% [4][7]. - Real estate investment remained low, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% in the first half of 2025. The decline in construction starts and completions narrowed, with starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The first half of 2025 saw a GDP growth of 5.3%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2. Fixed asset investment growth was at 2.8%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 7.5% [3][4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (all categories) grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while investment excluding electricity increased by 4.6%. Transportation and postal services saw a 5.6% increase, while water and environmental management investment rose by 3.5% [4][5]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with construction starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8%. The pace of investment recovery is expected to be slower than in previous cycles, highlighting the need for more supportive policies [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall industry is currently weak, but regional investments may gain momentum due to national strategic initiatives. Recommended companies include state-owned enterprises like China Chemical, China Energy Construction, and China Railway Construction, as well as private firms like Zhi Te New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure [15].

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of China's Q2 GDP data, along with other key economic indicators such as industrial added value, retail sales of consumer goods, real estate investment, and unemployment rate for the first half of the year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in average sales price while maintaining a high land acquisition intensity, focusing on core cities [6] - Despite a decline in sales, the company remains stable in industry rankings and has a sufficient inventory for sale [6] - The company has successfully issued medium-term notes at low interest rates, indicating strong financing capabilities [9] Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company achieved a contracted sales area of 695,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%, and a contracted sales amount of 21.75 billion yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year but up 25.6% month-on-month [7] - For the first half of 2025, the total contracted sales area was 3.35 million square meters, down 23.6% year-on-year, with a total sales amount of 88.89 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year [7] - The average contracted sales price was 26,533 yuan per square meter, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year [7] Land Acquisition - In June 2025, the company acquired three land parcels in Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, and Yichang, with a total construction area of 261,000 square meters and a total land price of 2.19 billion yuan [8] - In the first half of 2025, the company acquired 16 land parcels with a total construction area of 1.669 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 108%, and a total land price of 35.29 billion yuan, up 142% year-on-year [8] - The average land acquisition price was 21,144 yuan per square meter, an increase of 16% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 39.7% [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 5.97 billion, 6.47 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 0.66, 0.71, and 0.77 yuan [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.9, 12.9, and 11.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 194.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Lin Yuan, a self-made investor who boldly claims to be wealthier than well-known Chinese billionaires like Jack Ma, highlighting his unique journey from a doctor to a successful investor in the stock and real estate markets [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Early Life - Lin Yuan was born in 1963 and showed an early interest in business, engaging in small trades during his childhood [7]. - Despite his parents' wishes for him to pursue a stable career in medicine, Lin Yuan chose to leave his job as a doctor to enter the stock market in 1989 [5][9]. Group 2: Investment Journey - Lin Yuan initially invested 8,000 yuan in the stock market but faced significant losses, which motivated him to learn more about investing [10][14]. - After studying the market and conducting research, he made a successful investment in "Shenzhen Development" stock, earning 120,000 yuan, marking his first major success [16]. - He later shifted his focus to real estate, investing in projects in Xi'an, which proved to be a wise decision as he avoided significant losses during a market downturn [19]. Group 3: Later Success and Recognition - Lin Yuan returned to the stock market in 1996, making substantial profits through strategic investments in companies like "Shenzhen Development" [20]. - By 2004, he became a major shareholder in well-known companies such as Kweichow Moutai and expressed his opinions on their management, gaining media attention [22]. - Despite his success, Lin Yuan prefers a quieter life in his later years, enjoying simple pleasures with his family [23].

Core Viewpoint - Schroder Capital's real estate investment division has announced a strategic partnership with Chinese private enterprise Xizi International to jointly launch an investment management plan, focusing on private real estate equity investment funds with a total scale of approximately 3 billion RMB in the first phase [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The strategic cooperation will focus on high-quality office buildings and consumer infrastructure investment opportunities in core cities of Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region [1] - Both parties will jointly select and emphasize discovering core stable and high-quality projects with renovation and upgrade potential [1] Group 2: Company Background - Schroder Investment Group has been deeply engaged in the Chinese market for over 30 years and continues to expand its business in China [1] - In 2019, Schroder Capital established a wholly-owned subsidiary in China to conduct RMB fund business and completed the private fund manager registration with the Asset Management Association of China in early 2020 [1] - Currently, Schroder Capital has initiated and managed a total of 7 RMB private equity funds in China [1] Group 3: Management Insights - Andrew Moore, Head of Real Estate Investment for Asia Pacific at Schroder Capital, emphasized the importance of partnering with local excellent partners to expand in major markets [1] - Huang Jingwei, Head of Real Estate Investment in China at Schroder Capital, highlighted the complementary advantages of the partnership, which will provide more real estate investment opportunities for institutional investors [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [1][4][6] - In the fundamental aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. With multiple factors at play, steel prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating trend. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2992 | 23 | 0.77 | 7142023 | 3003707 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3116 | 34 | 1.10 | 2406634 | 1488632 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 703.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 2099456 | 678221 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 795.0 | 20.5 | 2.65 | 4896063 | 685871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1384.5 | 35.0 | 2.59 | 142071 | 54570 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support, so steel prices mainly fluctuated. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton [4] - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [4] - In the industrial aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [5] Industry News - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [6][7] - In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [10] - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 and by 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [10] - In May 2025, the automobile output was 2.642 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, the automobile output was 12.757 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [10] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, rebar basis trend, hot - rolled coil basis trend, rebar spot regional price difference trend, hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, long - process steel mill smelting profit, short - process electric furnace profit in East China, national 247 blast furnace operating rate, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][16]

Core Insights - The company, JLL, has achieved significant recognition at the "2025 Asia Pacific International Real Estate Awards," winning three championships and one excellence award in the Greater China region, showcasing its strong market influence and comprehensive industry strength [1][3][4] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - JLL was awarded the title of Outstanding Real Estate Agency/Consultancy in China, Outstanding Real Estate Marketing Consultancy in Hong Kong, and Outstanding Real Estate Innovative Marketing Company in China [1][3] - The awards reflect JLL's commitment to excellence and its leading position in the real estate market in Greater China [3][4] Group 2: Business Operations and Achievements - JLL operates 23 offices in Greater China, providing a wide range of services including valuation and consultancy, strategic development consultancy, project management, capital markets, and commercial real estate [3][4] - The Capital Markets team facilitated a significant transaction for Li Ning Group, assisting in the acquisition of the Hong Kong project for HKD 2.2 billion, which highlights JLL's capability to bridge opportunities between mainland China and Hong Kong [3][4] - Over the past five years, JLL's Capital Markets team has facilitated transactions totaling nearly HKD 40 billion, establishing a leading position in the Greater China real estate investment market [4] Group 3: Project Highlights - The Shanghai Century Commercial Plaza project has been a landmark in the Hengfu style area, known for its prime location and high-quality construction, making it a preferred choice for major consulting firms and multinational corporations [4] - JLL's project and corporate services team has taken on significant asset management responsibilities for the Shanghai Century Commercial Plaza, revitalizing the project through innovative marketing strategies [4][5] Group 4: Regional Achievements - JLL's India team also received two awards at the 2025 Asia Pacific International Real Estate Awards, further emphasizing the company's strong presence in the Asia Pacific region [5]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month, indicating a stable economic performance[16] - The demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown, aligning with prior assessments[16] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a recovery in consumer spending[21] - Policy-driven consumption, particularly in home appliances and cultural products, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 30.5% respectively, contributing to the overall retail sales increase[25] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth remains at 3.7% year-on-year, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[32] - Manufacturing investment growth is at 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decrease, influenced by uncertainties in the market due to U.S. tariff policies[48] U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to affect market sentiment and investment decisions, with expectations of a slight economic slowdown in Q2 to around 5.2%-5.3%[3] - The potential for a recovery in market sentiment is anticipated in Q3 if U.S. tariff policies stabilize or improve, possibly leading to new investment opportunities[3] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market remains under pressure, with property sales declining by 4.41% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is showing signs of slowing[35] - The average sales price of commercial housing in May was 10,004.44 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating a need for price stabilization[35] Future Outlook - If U.S.-China trade negotiations yield positive results, there could be a restoration of market risk appetite, benefiting exports and overall economic recovery[57] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is critical for observing potential policies aimed at stabilizing growth amid external pressures[58]

进入6月以来，螺纹钢市场逐步进入传统意义上的季节性需求淡季。回顾自2021年以来螺纹钢期货价格 在6月和7月的走势，可以发现需求淡季的行情未必平淡。2021年和2023年，螺纹钢期货价格在6月和7月 均大幅上涨，而在2022年和2024年则大幅下跌。今年6月和7月，螺纹钢期货价格怎么走？笔者从基本面 角度对目前的行情进行分析梳理，供投资者参考。 基建投资维持高位 短流程钢厂持续复产，使螺纹钢供应压力依然较大。目前螺纹钢周产量为219万吨，环比下降7万吨，同 比下降15万吨。从钢厂生产计划来看，6月钢厂检修减产力度依然较弱，螺纹钢供应大概率会维持在高 位水平。 去库速度放缓 随着下游需求淡季到来，螺纹钢需求开始下滑，去库速度随之放缓。上海钢联调研数据显示，5月螺纹 钢总库存为571万吨，环比下降130万吨，同比下降205万吨。随着下游需求转弱，预计6月螺纹钢去库速 度将进一步放缓，库存由降转增的概率显著增加。 综合来看，随着下游需求淡季到来，短期螺纹钢供需压力逐步增加。另一方面，随着一揽子宏观政策加 速落地，基建投资有望维持在较高水平，中期螺纹钢需求有望回升。在上述因素的共同作用之下，6月 螺纹钢期货价格预计先 ...