Core Insights - The key focus of the article is on the investment opportunities and strategic directions outlined for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" in China, emphasizing technological self-reliance and consumption stimulation as primary highlights [1][3]. Group 1: Technological Development - The first major highlight of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, with future industry output projected to reach approximately 11.7 trillion yuan in 2024, 13.4 trillion yuan in 2025, and 15.5 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15% [3]. - The integration of "Artificial Intelligence+" is expected to achieve significant breakthroughs, with a goal for AI to be deeply integrated into six key areas by 2027 [3]. Group 2: Consumption and Demographics - The second highlight is the emphasis on boosting consumption and addressing the challenges of an aging population, advocating for the establishment of a supportive policy framework for childbirth and the development of the silver economy [5]. - The article suggests that increasing residents' income levels is crucial for economic transformation, recommending adjustments in income distribution and enhancing employment opportunities [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The article discusses the rising risk appetite in capital markets as a driving force behind the current market uptrend, influenced by breakthroughs in AI and technology sectors, as well as policy support for the stock market [7]. - Four main asset allocation themes are identified: low-interest-rate assets, sectors benefiting from global geopolitical tensions, AI technology revolution, and new consumption trends related to younger demographics [8]. - The importance of diversified investment strategies is highlighted, especially in the context of increasing global market volatility, underscoring the need for cross-market and diversified asset allocation [8].

Core Insights - The key highlights of the "14th Five-Year Plan" include accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and boosting consumption while actively addressing population aging [1][2] - The future industrial output value in China is projected to reach approximately 11.7 trillion yuan in 2024, with expected growth to 13.4 trillion yuan in 2025 and 15.5 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15% [2] - The integration of "Artificial Intelligence+" into six key areas is anticipated to deepen by 2027, with new generation smart terminals and applications expected to exceed a 70% penetration rate [2] Investment Opportunities - The rise in risk appetite is identified as a core driver of the current market uptrend, influenced by multiple factors including breakthroughs in AI and technology, policy focus on the stock market, and China's enhanced global standing [4] - Four main asset allocation themes are highlighted: low-interest-rate assets, sectors benefiting from global geopolitical tensions, AI technology revolution, and new consumption trends related to younger demographics [5] - The importance of diversified investment strategies is emphasized due to increased volatility in global capital markets, necessitating cross-market and diversified asset allocation [5] Economic Transformation - The need to reduce the investment contribution to GDP while increasing consumption is critical during China's economic transition, with a focus on improving residents' income levels [3] - Recommendations include constructing a fertility support policy system, developing the silver economy, and achieving equalization of public services, particularly in healthcare and elderly care [3] - The goal is to establish a comprehensive pension service network by 2029, ensuring a robust social security system [3]

T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 l [Table_Title] 六部门印发促消费实施方案，周大福、 e _ M 六福集团 10-11 月同店数据亮眼 ——商社美护行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 ] 本周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别 +3.45%/+3.92%/+0.50%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 9/6/26，同期上 证综指+1.40%，深证成指+3.56%，沪深 300+1.64%。 细分子板块来看，本周消费重点申万二级子行业普涨，其中教育/一般 零售/互联网电商行业涨幅居前，分别+8.47%/+4.78%/+3.62%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方 案》的通知。《方案》提出，到 2027 年，消费品供给结构明显优化， 形成 3 个万亿级消费领域和 10 个千亿级消费热点，打造一批富有文 化内涵、享誉全球的高品质消费品；到 2030 年，供给与消费良性互 动、相互促进的高质量发展格局基本形成，消费对经济增长的贡献率 稳步提升。 可选消费行业周报、月报 ...

Group 1: New Consumption - The report emphasizes the continuous exploration of new products, channels, and brand changes within the new consumption sector, highlighting the resilience of leading companies despite market concerns about revenue growth and profit realization in 2026 [8][15][9] - Key sectors include eyewear, with a focus on AI and AR technologies, recommending companies like 康耐特光学 for their innovative approaches [18][30] - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector is noted for its high growth potential, particularly with brands like 泡泡玛特 and their successful IP strategies [34][38] - The personal care and household cleaning segment is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rise of platforms like 抖音, which enhances brand visibility and sales conversion [54][55] Group 2: Export Chain - The report identifies the light industry export chain as a key area, emphasizing the importance of high pricing power, market diversification, and mature overseas production capabilities [10] - Recommendations include关注匠心家居, 共创草坪, and other companies that demonstrate strong performance in international markets [10] Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on quality leaders in the cyclical sector, particularly in home textiles and furniture, where companies like 水星家纺 and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their strong market positions [11][11] - The report notes the increasing differentiation within the home goods market, recommending companies that offer value and competitive pricing [11]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector has shown significant upward momentum, with specific stocks reaching their daily limits and others experiencing notable gains, driven by market style shifts and positive CPI growth [1] Sector Performance - As of November, the food and beverage index has been recovering, outperforming the broader market due to a change in market style and a positive CPI growth rate [1] - Within the sector, pre-processed foods, baked goods, and dairy products have seen the highest increases [1] Investment Insights - Xiangcai Securities highlights that the current valuation of the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for relative gains as market styles shift [1] - The report suggests focusing on opportunities for recovery and valuation repair following the release of fundamental pressures [1] - It emphasizes the importance of innovation in categories, channels, and consumption scenarios, while also recognizing opportunities in traditional consumption sectors that are actively seeking change and are undervalued [1] Strategic Recommendations - Two main investment lines are recommended: 1. Leading companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance [1] 2. Companies actively developing new products, channels, and scenarios to capture high-growth markets, particularly those with strategic foresight and execution capabilities [1]

短期内美元指数可能呈现下行趋势，但基于美国经济最快从二季度回温 的假设，预计美元指数将在一季度继续下行，然后从二季度起回升，在 下半年随着经济企稳和加息预期升温而加速上涨。 预计中国 2026 年经济增速约为 4.7%，政策重点转向供需并重，关注 扩大内需和促消费。财政赤字率或维持 4%，特别国债额度提升，地方 政府新增专项债额度或略高于今年。货币政策方面，预计央行可能降息 10~20 个基点，降准 50~100 个基点。 中国市场 2026 年的主题是"需求引领增长，拥抱新核心资产"，关注 出海、AI、新消费三大投资主题。预计市场将由流动性驱动转向盈利驱 动，成长风格相对更具优势，港股受益于流动性改善及基本面提升。 浦银国际 2026 年展望：拥抱新资产 20251201 摘要 美国经济动能预计在 2025 年四季度至 2026 年一季度减弱，随后在财 政刺激和货币政策放松的支持下改善，全年增速预计从 2025 年的 2% 小幅下滑至 1.8%。主要风险包括降息过慢、关税效应以及政策刺激效 果不及预期。 美国就业市场在 2025 年持续走弱，失业率上升，但劳动供给下降及货 币政策放松有助于避免经济衰退。预计 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting a significant point to watch as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rise, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a corresponding increase in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as base metals such as copper and aluminum [3] - The anticipated peak of this trend is expected around December 10, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a cautionary note on potential short-term pullbacks following the realization of these gains [3] - The US stock market is experiencing a dual effect of benefiting initially from rate cut expectations but may face pressure post-decision due to narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies, potentially leading to capital outflows [3] Group 2 - The narrowing of the 10-year Treasury yield spread between China and the US could result in some US dollar funds returning to markets like China and Japan, especially if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in December, which would further compress the US-Japan yield spread [3] - The recent rise of the Japanese yen against the US dollar is seen as an early signal of capital returning to Japan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the uncertainty in the macro - environment is expected to decline. China's economic growth may be driven by rebalancing, with a slight slowdown to 4.7%. The US economy may be driven by fiscal - stimulated consumption and AI investment, and there may be three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the end of next year [3][10]. - In the Chinese market, valuation growth will shift from being liquidity - driven to profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes such as overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [3][10]. - In the consumer industry, the competitive environment is expected to improve. The investment strategy is to embrace new trends and new consumption. Traditional consumer industries offer opportunities in individual stock fundamental reversals, while new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds after improved performance certainty [3][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is optimistic. The innovative drug and CXO sectors are recommended due to factors like China's innovative drug R & D capabilities, policy support, and expected improvement in overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [4][10]. - The AI industry in the technology sector will continue to grow strongly, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications [4][10]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2026 China Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Rebalancing in the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - **Core Situation in 2025**: Thanks to pre - emptive policy efforts and better - than - expected external demand, the annual economic growth target of about 5% can be achieved. However, economic development still faces challenges such as imbalance between supply and demand, the unstable real estate industry, and low inflation [11][16]. - **2026 Outlook**: - **External and Internal Uncertainties**: External trade relations between China and the US may reach a new dynamic balance, and internal risks such as local government debt and real estate have decreased [17]. - **Challenges**: Economic imbalance persists, the real estate industry remains unstable, and low inflation affects investment and consumption confidence [18][19]. - **Policy**: Fiscal policy will maintain a 4.0% budget deficit rate, issue 1.6 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and may increase local government special bonds. It focuses on promoting consumption and stabilizing investment. Monetary policy will remain loose, with possible interest rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50 - 100 basis points. Real estate policies will be moderately advanced [21][22]. - **Economic Growth**: Real economic growth is expected to slow to 4.7%. Consumption and investment will contribute 4.3 percentage points, higher than in 2025. The economic growth rate may be low in the first half and high in the second half. Inflation is expected to improve, with the CPI rising to 0.6% and the nominal GDP growth rate rising to 4.5%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate will remain stable [23][24]. 2026 US Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Recovery Led by Policy Stimulus No information provided. 2026 China Market Strategy Outlook: Demand - Driven Growth, Embracing New Core Assets - **Investment Strategy**: China's market liquidity will remain abundant, but valuation growth will be profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes like overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [10]. Consumer Industry 2026 Outlook: Find Opportunities in the Quiet and the Ordinary - **Industry Environment**: In a weak demand recovery environment, the competitive environment is expected to improve through upstream capacity reduction, downstream inventory clearance, and anti - involution [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The key is to embrace new trends and new consumption. High - cost - performance domestic substitution, emotional consumption, health - related consumption, new retail formats, and domestic brands going overseas are important investment directions. Traditional consumer industries focus on individual stock fundamental reversals, and new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds [10]. - **Preferred Stocks**: Pop Mart (9992.HK), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), and Topsports (6110.HK) are preferred in 2026 [10]. Pharmaceutical Industry 2026 Outlook: Reach New Heights - **Optimistic Outlook**: The pharmaceutical sector is optimistic. The innovative drug sector is recommended due to China's leading R & D capabilities, policy support, and more biotech companies entering the profit stage. The CXO sector is also promising as overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing is expected to improve [4][10]. Technology Industry 2026 Outlook: AI Algorithm Iteration Expands the Computing Power Base, and the Prosperous Ecosystem Reshapes the Growth Boundary - **AI Growth**: The AI industry will continue to grow strongly. Its underlying technology is in a flywheel - iteration stage, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications such as C - end, B - end, and G - end. In the long run, it may bring growth to emerging industries like embodied intelligence [4][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the external environment improved significantly, and the equity market rebounded with fluctuations. The strength of small and micro - cap stocks boosted the underlying stocks of convertible bonds. However, due to the impact of Vanke's bond extension event, the convertible bond market was the primary target for "fixed - income +" funds to reduce positions during net redemptions because of its good liquidity, resulting in a slight decline and a significant digestion of the previously rapidly rising valuation level. The convertible bond ETFs were divided, with a total net redemption of RMB 1.345 billion in convertible bonds. - Looking ahead, factors such as the new regulations for bond funds and year - end profit - taking sentiment increase the uncertainty on the demand side of the convertible bond market, amplifying price fluctuations. However, the basic pattern of weak supply and strong demand in the convertible bond market is unlikely to change substantially, and the impact is expected to be limited. The large - cap bottom - position convertible bonds with rapidly falling valuations have significant left - hand layout value. In the short term, convertible bonds are expected to follow the equity market in a high - to - low, structural market. After the Central Economic Work Conference provides direction for the market, an end - of - year pre - emptive market is expected to start, with hard - tech, new - consumption, and anti - involution - related convertible bonds remaining the key directions [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On November 25, the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Development of 'Artificial Intelligence +' Energy", proposing eight categories of scenarios, 37 key tasks, and more than a hundred specific applications to accelerate the application of artificial intelligence in the energy field. It plans to organize "Artificial Intelligence +" energy pilot projects to explore a new paradigm for the integrated development of "Artificial Intelligence +" energy [3]. - On November 27, six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand to Further Promote Consumption", proposing five measures and setting phased development goals. By 2027, three trillion - level consumption areas and ten billion - level consumption hotspots are expected to be formed [3]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 1.40%, 3.56%, and 4.54% respectively. Overseas, the US retail data was lower than expected, and the core PPI increase also declined, leading to a resurgence of the December interest - rate cut expectation. Coupled with new progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, most global capital markets rebounded, and commodities generally rose. Domestically, the equity market rebounded with fluctuations, but trading volume hit a nearly four - month low due to a wait - and - see attitude. Small and micro - cap stocks strengthened significantly, and there was policy speculation ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference. Vanke experienced a double - kill in stocks and bonds due to bond extension and market - based debt disposal rumors [5]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Major convertible bond market indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.27%, 0.50%, and 0.01% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of RMB 61.571 billion, a marginal decrease of RMB 4.105 billion from the previous week. The convertible bond ETFs were divided, with a total net redemption of RMB 1.345 billion in convertible bonds. Structurally, small - cap convertible bonds outperformed last week, and low - rated and high - priced convertible bonds rose against the trend, while high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds underperformed. In terms of valuation, the conversion value of the convertible bond market increased marginally to the 75.3% quantile since 2020, but the convertible bond price decreased marginally, and the valuation level dropped significantly by 7.8 percentage points to the 49.9% quantile. In terms of trading sentiment, the trading activity of both underlying stocks and convertible bonds declined [7][8]. - **Industry Performance**: Most convertible bonds in various industries rose last week. Convertible bonds in the steel and building materials industries led with average increases of over 2% and 1%, respectively, while those in the food and beverage and transportation industries fell by over 0.5%. In terms of valuation, the average conversion premium rate quantile since 2020 decreased by 13.03 percentage points to the 48.07% quantile, and the median conversion premium rate quantile decreased by 11.35 percentage points to the 48.54% quantile. Convertible bonds in industries such as household appliances, food and beverage, building decoration, and automobiles followed the upward trend more slowly, and their valuation quantiles decreased by more than 20 percentage points [10]. - **Individual Bonds**: Among 401 convertible bonds, 208 rose and 181 fell. Among the rising bonds, Dazhong Convertible Bond and Chun 23 Convertible Bond led the market with increases of over 14% and 13% respectively, benefiting from the lithium - mining and consumer - electronics markets. Tianyuan Convertible Bond also strengthened significantly, rising by over 10%. Among the falling bonds, Bo 23 Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, and Xinhua Convertible Bond fell significantly by over 14%, 9%, and 8% respectively under the expectation of early redemption [11]. Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: No new convertible bonds were issued last week, Zhuomei Convertible Bond was listed, and no convertible bonds were delisted. As of November 28, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market was RMB 565.308 billion, a decrease of RMB 168.585 billion from the beginning of the year and a decrease of RMB 33.28 billion from the previous week. Zhuomei Convertible Bond had a 57.3% daily limit on the first - listing day and rose by over 74.9% in the first week, with a conversion premium rate of 92.69% as of last Friday, exceeding the market median level [30]. - **Conversion and Redemption**: Ten convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week, an increase of three from the previous week. Among them, Qibin Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, and Yuguang Convertible Bond announced early redemption, and Xinhua Convertible Bond and Yong 02 Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger early redemption. Mingdian Zhuan 02, Fenghuo Convertible Bond, Ying 19 Convertible Bond, and Dongfeng Convertible Bond are about to expire and be delisted [31]. - **Issuance Progress**: The issuance of convertible bonds by Shang Sheng Electronics was approved by the exchange, and the issuance of convertible bonds by Lianrui New Materials was approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, seven convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC and waiting to be issued, with a total scale of RMB 4.718 billion, and six convertible bonds passed the review committee, with a total scale of RMB 7.458 billion [32]. - **Clause Tracking**: No convertible bonds announced a downward revision of the conversion price last week, and four convertible bonds announced early redemption. Tianneng Convertible Bond and Lanfan Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed a downward revision of the conversion price; Sanfang Convertible Bond and Jin 23 Convertible Bond announced no downward revision of the conversion price; Qixiang Zhuan 2, Changhong Convertible Bond, and Lepu Zhuan 2 announced that they were about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price. Zhongneng Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, and Zhongqi Convertible Bond announced early redemption; Fuxin Convertible Bond announced no early redemption; Nenghui Convertible Bond, Meinuo Convertible Bond, Shenglan Convertible Bond, Limin Convertible Bond, Huamao Convertible Bond, and Xinhua Convertible Bond announced that they were expected to trigger the early - redemption condition [34].

Core Viewpoint - Beyond Meat, known as the "first stock of plant-based meat" and previously backed by Bill Gates, has quietly closed its flagship stores on major e-commerce platforms in China, indicating a significant retreat from the market [1][19]. Company Overview - Beyond Meat was founded in 2009 and went public in 2019, experiencing a stock price surge of 163% on its debut. It has notable investors including Bill Gates and Leonardo DiCaprio [3][5]. - The company launched its first end-to-end production facility outside the U.S. in Jiaxing, Zhejiang, in 2021, aiming to cater to the Chinese market with localized products [5][10]. Market Performance - As of November 30, 2023, Beyond Meat's official flagship store on Tmall is no longer searchable, and its Pinduoduo store is also non-functional, indicating a complete withdrawal from the Chinese market [1][3]. - The company has faced declining revenues, with a drop from $419 million in 2022 to $326 million in 2024, and a cumulative loss of $864 million during the same period [10]. Product Pricing and Consumer Perception - Beyond Meat's products are priced above local alternatives, with plant-based meat products costing over 60 yuan per kilogram, comparable to domestic beef prices, which has deterred consumers [3][10]. - Consumer feedback highlights dissatisfaction with the taste and texture of plant-based meat, with many describing it as inferior to real meat [11][13]. Industry Trends - The plant-based meat sector in China has seen a decline in investment and interest since late 2021, with many startups facing financial difficulties and some brands going bankrupt [11][16]. - Despite the challenges, the market for plant-based meat in China is projected to grow, with estimates suggesting a market size of approximately $7.6 billion by 2024, potentially reaching $38.5 billion by 2033 [16].