Inflation Data - December core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. recorded at 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI inflation rate for December matched expectations at 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year overall CPI and core CPI remained unchanged from November at 2.7% and 2.6% respectively[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, lower than the revised 56,000 in November and market expectations of 70,000[1] - Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in December, marking the first decline since July[1] - Average hourly wage growth rebounded both year-on-year and month-on-month[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The mixed employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize the declining unemployment rate, potentially delaying interest rate cuts until at least March[4] - The expectation remains for two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, despite the possibility of a delay in the next cut[4] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve due to ongoing investigations into Chairman Powell may not impact short-term rate decisions[4] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a month-on-month growth rate drop to 0%, the lowest since June 2025[2] - Housing prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with lodging prices surging by 2.91% during the holiday season[2] - Super core service prices recorded a lower growth rate of 0.14% month-on-month, influenced by seasonal factors[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports copper prices [1] - By 2040, global copper demand will significantly increase, driven by the AI and defense sectors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290, with a daily decline of 1.45%, and the night - session closing price was 103,540, with a night - session increase of 1.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 13,157, with a daily decline of 0.12% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the open interest was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 32,396, a decrease of 3,345 from the previous day, and the open interest was 324,000, a decrease of 543 from the previous day [1] - **Futures Inventories**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325 from the previous day. The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% from the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as LME copper spreads, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In the US, the core CPI in December was only 2.6% year - on - year, remaining at a four - year low. The interest rate market still bets that the next interest rate cut will be in June this year. On January 13, US President Trump cancelled all talks with Iranian officials [1] - **Industry News**: Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 133.2 million tons, slightly higher than in 2024. In November, its copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a record - high copper premium of $330 per ton for Japanese domestic customers in 2026 [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]

美国股市下跌，通胀数据未能改变市场对美联储暂停降息的押注，而摩根大通业绩公布后领跌银行股。 数据显示，物价压力正逐步缓解，这在数据公布后一度为投资者带来一定安慰，但随着交易时段推进， 各类资产的走势趋于平淡。 标普500指数从纪录高位回落。摩根大通股价下跌4.2%，其投行业务收入未达到公司指引，承销和并购 咨询业务收入双双下滑。 继摩根大通周二公布业绩后，美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团和摩根士丹利等其他大型银行 定于周三和周四披露财报。受美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政策调整提振，这些银行年度利润料创史上次 高。 交易员还关注美国最高法院可能于周三就白宫今年实施的关税作出裁决。若裁决结果不利，可能引发市 场负面反应，尽管政府在多数关税问题上仍有其他法律途径可循。 华尔街解读CPI，同时银行财报季拉开帷幕。 "核心CPI低于预期一度引发市场兴奋，但这种情绪很快消退，"盈透证券的Jose Torres表示："部分原因 在于，这份报告并未将市场对下一次降息的预期时间从6月提前至4月，固定收益市场观察人士认为，鲍 威尔在12月的降息可能是他任内的最后一次"。 Principal Asset Management 的S ...

Core Insights - The December CPI in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with expectations and remaining at the lowest level in four years [1] - The core CPI year-on-year growth is 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, indicating a further slowdown in inflation [2][8] - The overall inflation data is viewed as a convincing signal of cooling inflation, with market reactions indicating increased bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates earlier than anticipated [3][11] Inflation Details - The December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is below the expected 0.3% [2][8] - The structure of inflation shows that while commodity prices remained stable, service and food prices were the main contributors to inflation in December [5] - Housing inflation pressure is significantly easing, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase dropping from 3.3% in November to 3.2% in December [6] Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock futures rose, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell, reflecting market sentiment towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The probability of a rate cut in April is now priced at approximately 42%, up from 38% prior to the data release, although June is still viewed as the most likely timing for a cut [3] Core Inflation Trends - The core CPI's year-on-year growth of 2.6% is the lowest since March 2021, reinforcing the trend of declining inflation [8] - Core goods prices decreased month-on-month, while service prices saw a slight acceleration, with the "super core inflation" metric (excluding housing services) also showing a slowdown to the lowest level since September 2021 [8]

住房指数环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨3.2%，是推动月度CPI上涨的最大单一因素，其中业主等价租金与实 际租金均环比上涨0.3%，异地住宿环比涨幅达2.9%。能源指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.3%，管道燃 气服务环比大涨4.4%，同比涨幅高达10.8%，而汽油价格环比下降0.5%，同比下跌3.4%，部分抵消了能 源服务的上涨压力。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月13日电 (王晓伟）美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布数据显示，2025年12月美国城市消费者 价格指数（CPI-U）经季节性调整后环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%，与11月同比涨幅持平，通胀水平保 持稳定。核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.6%，显示剔除波动因素后的物价走势 温和。 12月食品指数环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨3.1%。其中，家庭食品与外出就餐价格同步环比上涨0.7%，家 庭食品同比上涨2.4%，外出就餐同比涨幅更高达4.1%。细分品类中，乳制品环比上涨0.9%，其他家庭 食品环比上涨1.6%，而肉类、家禽、鱼类和蛋类指数环比微降0.2%，鸡蛋价格环比大幅下跌8.2%。 环比上涨的品类包括娱乐（1.2%，创1993 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国2025年12月未季调核心CPI年率2.6%，预期2.7%，前值2.6%；美国12月季调后核心CPI月率0.2%， 预期0.3%。 ...

Group 1 - Overall, Sichuan's CPI shows a low-level moderate recovery trend, with core CPI continuing to strengthen, having risen for 10 consecutive months [1][2] - In December 2025, pork prices in Sichuan decreased by 16.6% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, primarily due to industry overcapacity and weak terminal demand [1][2] - The increase in consumer demand policies and pre-New Year consumption has led to price increases in communication tools, entertainment durable goods, and household appliances [1][2] Group 2 - In December 2025, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.9% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [2] - The core CPI is supported by a 0.9% year-on-year increase in service prices, indicating that positive factors in price movements are gradually accumulating [2]

Group 1 - Overall, Sichuan's CPI shows a low-level moderate recovery trend, with core CPI continuing to strengthen, having risen for 10 consecutive months [1][2] - In December 2025, pork prices in Sichuan decreased by 16.6% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, attributed to industry overcapacity and weak terminal demand [1][2] - The prices of communication tools, entertainment durable goods, and household appliances have increased due to the effects of consumption-boosting policies and rising demand before the New Year [2] Group 2 - In December 2025, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [2] - The increase in core CPI is primarily driven by a 0.9% rise in service prices, indicating that positive factors in price movements are gradually accumulating [2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In December 2025, Guangdong's CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from November, while the month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to November [1][2] - Average consumer prices in Guangdong for the year 2025 decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Food and Non-Food Price Changes - Food prices in December 2025 were flat year-on-year, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 10.5%, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the CPI increase [2] - Non-food prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.4% and industrial consumer goods prices rising by 0.5% [2] - Significant increases in precious metal prices were noted, with platinum, gold, and silver jewelry prices rising by 95.3%, 70.3%, and 19.2% respectively, collectively contributing about 0.31 percentage points to the CPI [2] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - In December 2025, Guangdong's PPI decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to November [4] - The PPI for production materials fell by 2.1%, while the PPI for living materials decreased by 0.4% [4] - Among 38 major industries surveyed, 10 experienced price increases, while 26 saw declines, maintaining an industry increase rate of 26.3% [4] Group 4: Industry-Specific Price Movements - The manufacturing sector for cultural, educational, and sports goods saw a price increase of 25.9%, while the recycling industry rose by 13.1% [4] - The oil and gas extraction industry experienced a price decline of 6.8%, and the automotive manufacturing sector saw a decrease of 6.3% [4] - In December 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with both production and living materials prices rising by 0.1% [5][6]

每经AI快讯，1月11日消息，埃及12月核心CPI同比增长11.8%，11月增长为12.5%。 ...