Core Insights - The article discusses the outlook for domestic inflation in 2026, focusing on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends, highlighting the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has recently returned to the 1% range, indicating a positive signal, but this is attributed to specific factors rather than a broad recovery in domestic demand [2]. - The sustainability of "old momentum" is questioned, with expectations for increased fiscal support in 2026, particularly towards the service sector, but concerns about diminishing multiplier effects are raised [2][3]. - The direction of the price base is contingent on effective fiscal spending to create a positive demand cycle, emphasizing the need for structural changes in fiscal policy rather than mere continuation of existing measures [3]. Group 2: 2026 Inflation Projections - It is anticipated that the core CPI will shift focus from physical consumption driven by "trade-in" policies in 2025 to the recovery elasticity of "service CPI" in 2026, dependent on effective domestic demand policies [4]. - The PPI is expected to experience a recovery influenced by the interplay between real estate sector challenges and supply-side reforms, with potential for gradual improvements as policies are implemented [4].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, driven by rising food prices, increasing expectations for the central bank to raise policy rates soon to curb inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The nationwide price level, excluding volatile fresh food, increased compared to the previous month, following a 2.9% rise in September, highlighting the negative impact of the sharp depreciation of the yen on import costs [1] - Since April 2022, this key inflation indicator has remained at or above the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan has emphasized the importance of normalizing interest rates to ensure price stability [1] Group 3: Economic Dependency - Japan, being resource-poor, heavily relies on imports to meet its food and energy needs [1]

Core Insights - The October CPI data exceeded expectations, drawing significant market attention, particularly in the consumer sector [1] - The two main factors contributing to the low CPI performance in 2025 are food and crude oil prices [1] - Core CPI performance significantly surpassed market expectations, with core goods prices rising notably more than core services [1] - Other goods and services, mainly jewelry, and durable consumer goods were the most unexpected contributors to the CPI increase [1] - For 2026, considering the marginal changes in household balance sheets and potential reductions in government subsidies, the neutral scenario forecasts core CPI and overall CPI year-on-year growth rates at 0.8% each [1] - In terms of macroeconomic performance, both supply and demand sides showed a decline in October, and the effectiveness of new policy financial tools will require time to materialize [1]

Core Insights - The continuous expansion of the core CPI for six months is seen as a positive sign, but it is insufficient to determine whether a true turning point in China's economic prices has been reached, requiring further evaluation of upcoming data [1][14]. Economic Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a decline in growth rate for five consecutive months [2]. - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year in October, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a potential turning point in price trends and a signal of recovering consumer demand [2][3]. Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales growth is attributed to a "supply-demand imbalance," highlighting the need for enhanced consumer demand [3]. - Consumption has become the primary driver of GDP growth this year, with various policies introduced to stimulate consumption, such as "trade-in" programs [3]. Price Dynamics - The core CPI's rise is influenced by factors such as the consumption boost from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays and a surge in gold prices [7]. - Service prices have been gradually recovering since March, with notable increases in airfares and hotel accommodation prices [7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's growth reflects improving terminal consumer demand, it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices [14]. - The overall CPI is expected to remain low, with projections indicating that achieving a 2% or 3% year-on-year CPI growth next year will require multiple favorable factors, including a recovery in real estate prices and improvements in median income growth [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Core Insights - The inflation level in October has drawn market attention, with the core CPI rising for six consecutive months, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] - The October CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, primarily driven by the core CPI [1] - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, reflects long-term price trends and is crucial for assessing current economic conditions and future inflation [1] CPI Components - In October, six out of seven major price categories in the core CPI increased year-on-year, with notable rises in other goods and services (12.8%), personal care (1.9%), and clothing (1.7%) [1] - Healthcare, education, and housing prices rose by 1.4%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while transportation and communication prices decreased by 1.5% [1] - Month-on-month, other goods and services surged by 3.8%, contributing significantly to the core CPI increase [1] Other Goods and Services - Other goods and services, which include jewelry, watches, and funeral services, accounted for 3.0% of per capita consumption expenditure in the first three quarters of 2025, with a growth rate of 10.3% [2] - The price of gold jewelry and platinum increased by 50.3% and 46.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong correlation between gold prices and the CPI [2] Service Prices - Service prices have been gradually increasing since March, with a 0.8% rise in October, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [3] - The service sector's value added reached 592,955 billion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 5.4% year-on-year and contributing 60.7% to national economic growth [3] Factors Influencing Service Prices - The growth in service demand and prices is attributed to the application of new technologies and the digital transformation of traditional services, which increases operational costs [4] - Demographic factors, such as an aging population and a decrease in young labor force, are leading to increased demand for healthcare, education, and high-quality services, driving up prices [5] - Despite economic pressures, there remains potential for further growth in service demand, indicating that the current price increase trend is still in its early stages [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.3% and rural areas declining by 0.2%[12] - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, while non-food prices increased by 0.9%[12] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024, indicating steady demand growth[15] Group 2: PPI Trends - The producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[14] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise in 2025[20] - Key industries such as black metal mining and coal mining saw price declines narrow or recover, indicating ongoing improvement in PPI[22] Group 3: Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for more aggressive macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing[5] - Continuous improvement in industrial product prices suggests a stable economic recovery trend[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[6]

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in October increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.3%, and also rose by 0.2% month-on-month [3] - The increase in CPI month-on-month was primarily driven by expanded consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising prices of industrial consumer goods [3] - Service prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.07 percentage points to the CPI increase, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and travel prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [3] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking six consecutive months of growth [4] - The reversal of the year-on-year decline in consumer prices was attributed to improved domestic supply and demand relationships, along with a rebound in service and industrial consumer goods prices [4] - The government aims to continue expanding domestic demand and optimizing the market competition environment to promote reasonable price recovery [4]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in Wuhan increased by 0.1% year-on-year in October, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, indicating a dual drive of consumption upgrade and policy effects on market vitality [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The robust growth of core CPI is attributed to the dual pull from services and industrial consumer goods [2] - Wuhan has remained one of the top ten popular tourist destinations in China since the National Day holiday, with post-holiday travel still thriving [2] - Prices for air tickets and accommodations increased by 4.4% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively, in mid to late October [2] - Prices for cultural and entertainment smart devices, such as tablets and wearable devices, rose by 4.3% year-on-year [2] - The rise in prices for maternal and infant care services by 3.2% year-on-year reflects the growing scientific parenting concepts among the new generation of parents [2] Group 2: Consumer Goods and Policies - Policies aimed at reducing "involution" are beginning to show results, with a notable shift in consumer preferences towards quality and technology in vehicles [2] - The price decline for fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles narrowed by 3.4 and 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, while sales saw a significant increase [2] - The "national subsidy" policy has diversified consumer demand, leading to a 2.8% year-on-year price increase for aesthetically pleasing and functional small appliances [2] Group 3: Price Changes and Economic Impact - In October, the prices of essential goods such as pork and fresh vegetables decreased by 19.5% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to lower living costs for residents [6] - The price of gasoline and diesel fell by 5.6% and 5.9%, respectively, further reducing household expenses [6] - The core CPI's upward trend indicates a shift in consumption towards service-oriented and improvement-focused sectors [6] - Among eight categories of goods and services, six experienced price increases, with "other goods and services" seeing a significant rise of 12.9% year-on-year [6] - The current consumer market in Wuhan is transitioning from "recovery growth" to "structural upgrade," driven by ongoing policy effects and the emergence of new business formats [6]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In October, Sichuan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][2] - The average CPI from January to October in Sichuan fell by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices increased by 5.7% and 2.2% month-on-month in October, primarily due to seasonal factors and the demand surge during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - Pork prices continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 20.2%, attributed to sufficient market supply and the timing of seasonal consumption [3] - Egg prices also fell by 1.3% month-on-month due to temporary oversupply and post-holiday demand drop [4] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year in October, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest since February 2023 [4] - Service prices contributed to the core CPI increase, with notable rises in air ticket prices (10.8%), travel agency fees (7.3%), and accommodation costs (3.4%) [4] Group 4: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Sichuan fell by 2.5% year-on-year in October, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, reflecting a shift from previous increases [7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month price drop of 0.5%, while electricity and heat production prices decreased by 1.5% month-on-month [7] - Despite the overall decline, some industries, such as computer manufacturing and non-ferrous metal processing, showed signs of price recovery [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, the PPI is expected to continue operating at low levels, but the rate of decline may narrow due to improved market demand and ongoing policy support [8] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting certain industries, leading to a reduction in price declines in sectors like coal and metal processing [8]