Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has retreated ahead of the consumer confidence data release, following a previous rise to a three-and-a-half-week high due to better-than-expected economic indicators [1] Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience in the US [1] - Initial jobless claims were lower than anticipated, further supporting the notion of a robust economy [1] Market Reactions - The market reacted positively after former President Trump denied reports of attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleviating some concerns [1] - The primary focus for the market is the upcoming release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey scheduled for tonight at 22:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive rebound in U.S. retail sales may alleviate concerns regarding a decline in consumer spending [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Out of 13 retail categories, 10 experienced growth, indicating a broad recovery in the sector [1] - Automotive sales rebounded after a period of decline, serving as a major driving force behind the retail sales increase [1] - Restaurant spending, the only service category included in the report, grew by 0.6%, contributing to the overall positive trend [1] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - There has been a general pessimism among Americans regarding the economy and their financial situation, exacerbated by tariffs and ongoing cost-of-living pressures [1] - Recent reports indicate a rebound in consumer confidence, providing a more optimistic outlook amidst previous concerns about consumer health [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates signs of economic weakness, highlighting a fragile consumer confidence despite some rising commodity prices [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - Airfare prices have decreased by 3.5% over the past 12 months [1] - The increase in auto insurance prices is only 6.1%, marking the smallest rise since June 2022, following significant increases in recent years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) CEO anticipates improvement in consumer and business confidence in the second quarter due to ongoing trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The CEO's statement reflects optimism regarding the economic outlook as trade talks progress [1]

Core Insights - Amazon extended its annual Prime Day from two days to four days, betting that a longer promotional period would allow consumers more time to browse its vast selection of discounted products. However, initial results indicate a significant drop in sales, raising concerns about the effectiveness of this strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Momentum Commerce reported a 41% year-over-year decline in sales on the first day of Prime Day (July 16) [1]. - The CEO of Momentum Commerce noted that the extended promotional period led to a "browsing" behavior among consumers, who added items to their carts but delayed purchases in anticipation of better discounts [1]. - If hesitant consumers convert to actual purchases in the following days, total sales during the four-day event could still see a 9.1% increase compared to last year's two-day event [1]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Approximately 65% of purchased items were priced below $20, with only 3% exceeding $100. The most popular items included household essentials like Dawn dish soap and Premier protein powder [3]. - The average household spending on the first day decreased from $110 last year to $106 this year, while the average price per item dropped from $28 to $25.46 [3]. - Consumers appeared to favor lower-priced items this year, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior [3]. Group 3: Market Context - Amazon's Prime Day has become a barometer for consumer confidence, especially in light of economic uncertainties stemming from trade tensions [2]. - The promotional event coincided with similar multi-day sales from competitors like Walmart and Target, intensifying the online shopping frenzy [3]. - Adobe Inc. reported that U.S. consumers spent $7.9 billion online on the first day of Prime Day, marking a 9.9% increase compared to the same day last year, with total spending for the four-day event expected to reach $23.8 billion [3].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts Guillaume Delmas and Silvia Xu indicate that despite a slowdown in the overall beauty industry, L'Oréal is expected to achieve sequential growth [1] Group 1: Sales Growth - Analysts forecast a 2.9% organic sales growth for L'Oréal in the second quarter [1] Group 2: Market Insights - In the Chinese market, a key indicator remains consumer confidence, which is currently moving in a positive direction [1] - In the U.S. market, consumer attitudes are becoming more cautious due to ongoing concerns about potential inflation resurgence [1]

Core Insights - The analysis by Trade Partnership Worldwide highlights the significant financial burden imposed by tariffs on various U.S. states, with California facing the highest impact at $11.3 billion from January to May 2023 [1][3] - The report indicates that over half of the states most affected by tariffs supported President Trump in the last election, suggesting a political dimension to the economic consequences [3][6] - The overall projected tariff burden for U.S. businesses under the Trump administration's policies could reach $433 billion, with California and Texas bearing the largest shares [3][4] Group 1: Tariff Impact on States - California's importers are expected to pay more in tariffs this year than the previous year's $170 billion, with an estimated increase of $82 billion for Texas importers [3][4] - A total of 17 states have incurred at least $1 billion in tariff burdens, while 11 states have seen impacts below $100 million, with Wyoming and Alaska being the least affected [3] - The report emphasizes that the tariff burden is closely related to the number of importers and the volume of imports in each state, with populous states like New York and New Jersey also facing significant impacts [5] Group 2: Economic Consequences and Reactions - California Governor Gavin Newsom criticized the federal tariff policy, stating it has led to a 20% decrease in imports at the Port of Oakland and a 35% reduction in the Los Angeles and Long Beach port complex [6][7] - Newsom warned that if the current tariff policies persist, consumers may face empty shelves, and the economic damage could take time to repair even if the tariffs are lifted [6][7] - A report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation estimates that California's Los Angeles area could lose approximately $500 billion in revenue, threatening 2 million jobs due to the tariff impacts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing fluctuations in both second-hand and new housing transactions, with a notable increase in second-hand transactions year-on-year, while new housing sales are declining significantly compared to the previous year [1][4][7]. Second-hand Housing Market - In June 2025, the number of recorded second-hand housing transactions was 5,546, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a total of 35,106 second-hand housing contracts, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - The average monthly recorded transactions for second-hand housing in the first half of 2025 reached 5,851, indicating a generally active market supported by policy and demand [7]. - As of June 30, 2025, there were 73,858 second-hand properties available for sale, a month-on-month increase of 2.9% [6]. - The proportion of transactions for properties smaller than 90 square meters accounted for 55.9% of total sales, down from 61.4% in the same period of 2024, suggesting a gradual release of demand for larger properties [6]. New Housing Market - In June 2025, the pre-sale of new homes totaled 2,054 units, showing a month-on-month decline of 7.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.7% [4]. - The total pre-sale of new homes in the first half of 2025 was 16,522 units, which is an 11.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with residential sales increasing by 24.4% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a "price-for-volume" phase, with sellers having more negotiation power, indicating some uncertainty in the market [7]. - The Dragon River area has seen a 2.0 percentage point decrease in transaction share, influenced by external policy changes, particularly the recent LPR adjustment [6].

他进一步表示："这是因为低收入消费者购买的商品多于服务，而其中许多商品产自中国。" 现年56岁的纽约居民达伦·麦克米兰对此深有感触。他在3月底就决定将有限的预算拿来囤积生活必需品，以应对即将到来的高关 税。 麦克米兰表示："听说加征关税可能会导致物价上涨，我很担心。所以，我去购置了更多东西，比如罐头食品、衣服。现在我根本不 花钱了，因为不知道接下来会发生什么。" 如今，美国民众谨慎消费，大型零售商和小型企业则在权衡是否要提高商品价格以应对加征关税。 美国政府的关税政策悬而未决，犹如一把悬挂在消费者和零售商头上的"达摩克利斯之剑"。美国各界人士日前对《中国日报》表 示，这种不确定性损害了美国消费者信心，也让零售商难以抉择。 漫画作者：中国日报 罗杰 美国全国零售商联合会首席经济学家杰克·克莱因亨茨在一份声明中表示："消费者正在努力应对贸易政策带来的不确定性，预计关 税将在今年晚些时候引发通胀。消费者对物价仍然非常敏感，关税成本可能会严重影响他们的消费预算。" 事实上，美国经济学家早就警告称，加征关税将改变美国民众的消费习惯，特别是如果商家涨价的话。美国得克萨斯大学埃尔帕索 分校经济学教授托马斯·富勒顿告诉《中国 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with all sub-indices improving except for employment and business activity expectations[1] - New orders index turned from contraction to expansion at 50.2%, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the marginal improvement of the manufacturing PMI[5] - The procurement volume index also shifted from contraction to expansion, showing the most significant improvement among all sub-indices, marking the highest level since 2015 for this period[5] Group 2: Employment and Expectations - The employment index for June is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, marking the weakest level of the year[1] - Business activity expectations index stands at 52%, down 0.5 percentage points, also the weakest year-to-date[1] - There is a disconnection between active procurement activities and the decline in employment and business expectations, indicating potential sustainability issues in procurement[13] Group 3: Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8% in June, primarily supported by the improvement in the real estate sector rather than infrastructure[17] - The civil engineering activity index recorded 56.7%, indicating a high level of activity, but this is a decline from May, suggesting that the construction sector's recovery is not driven by infrastructure projects[17] - The real estate sector's new orders index remains below 50%, indicating that the sustainability of improvements in the construction sector needs further validation from sales and investment trends[18] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and policy implementation is not meeting expectations, posing risks to the economic outlook[23]