棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 美生柴政策提振 棕榈油或震荡走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 | 合约 | | 6 月 13 | 日 | 6 月 | 6 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT 豆油主连 | | 51.19 | | 47.43 | | 3.76 | 7.93% | 美分/磅 | | BMD 马棕油主连 | | 3927 | | 3917 | | 10 | 0.26% | 林 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed a positive trend, with soybean oil futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a peak of 7998.00 yuan/ton, marking a rise of 2.57% [1] - The rise in soybean oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have led to a surge in international crude oil prices, alongside favorable U.S. biodiesel policies [1][2] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed higher biodiesel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027, set at 24.02 billion gallons and 24.46 billion gallons respectively, exceeding industry expectations and supporting the bullish sentiment in the soybean oil market [1][2] Group 2 - Despite an increase in domestic soybean oil inventory by 70,000 tons, which may exert downward pressure on prices, current stock levels remain low compared to historical averages [2] - Market activity has been relatively subdued, with weaker food and downstream restaurant consumption observed in June, leading to cautious market sentiment regarding future supply [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Energy has announced the removal of various barriers to domestic biofuel production, which is expected to benefit farmers in the alternative fuel market [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The recent action will allow ethanol and natural gas producers to qualify for biofuel tax credits [1] Group 2: Market Impact - CBOT corn futures are down 0.45%, wheat futures down 0.09%, soybean futures down 1.05%, while soybean meal is up 0.37% and soybean oil is down 3.78% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures have increased by 0.65% [1]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 5 月 19 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 最低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | :: 成交量 : | 持仓量 | 特分变变化 | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Academy of Engineering announced the election of 50 new fellows and 7 foreign fellows, including Professor Dehua Liu from Tsinghua University, recognized for his contributions to biorefinery technologies and biofuels [1][2]. Group 1: Professor Dehua Liu's Achievements - Professor Liu is an internationally recognized leader in the research and commercialization of biorefinery technologies for producing biofuels and biochemicals [2][3]. - Under his leadership, enzymatic production of biodiesel and bio-PDO fermentation from crude glycerol have been globally commercialized, earning prestigious awards such as the BlueSky award from UNIDO and a gold medal at the Geneva Invention Show [2][3]. - He has successfully led technology transfer and demonstration of enzymatic biodiesel in Brazil, recognized as a model case of South-South bioeconomic cooperation by UNOSSC [2][3]. - Liu has trained 72 PhD/MSc students and filed 132 patents, showcasing his impact as an educator and innovator in the field [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Developments - New synthetic leather materials utilizing synthetic biology to recreate dinosaur skin are set to enter the luxury market [6]. - Ling Spider Technology, backed by Shenzhen Capital Group, has completed several million yuan in angel round financing, focusing on the synthetic biological manufacturing of spider silk proteins [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced multiple projects in biobased materials and biofuels [6]. - Wanhua Chemical has signed agreements in the field of biomanufacturing, particularly in new biological materials [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is a risk of price decline and adjustment due to potential increases in production and inventory. In China, short - term prices may fluctuate after breaking through 8200 yuan, with a possibility of reaching 8300 yuan [1]. - For soybean oil, if the US proposal to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is passed, the industrial use of soybean oil in bio - fuel production will rise significantly. In the short - term, there is an upward trend, but domestic inventory increase may drag down the market [1]. Sugar - Short - term raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar market has sufficient supply and strong sales. Sugar prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a reference range of 5800 - 5950 yuan [3]. Cotton - The downstream cotton industry is gradually weakening, but the pressure on finished product inventory is still small. New cotton growth is good, and supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate in a range, with attention on the 13500 - 13700 yuan per ton resistance level [4]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly and then stabilize this week [6]. Meal - Due to uncertainties in US biodiesel blending targets and abundant supply from Brazil, there is no significant positive support for the meal market. Domestic supply is recovering, and attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 yuan [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market will trade steadily with a sideways trend. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support price increases. It is recommended to buy on dips during price corrections [11]. Pork - The spot price of pork is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has little change. Pig prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with attention on the performance of secondary fattening pig sales [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: From February 15th to May 14th, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed different degrees of decline, with the exception of some basis and spread changes [1]. - **Policies and Reports**: The US House of Representatives' proposed draft to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy may increase the industrial use of soybean oil. The latest USDA monthly report shows the proportion of US soybean oil industrial use in total demand [1]. Sugar - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of sugar showed different trends. The production and sales of sugar increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased. The import of sugar increased significantly [3]. - **Industry News**: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, but the 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season is still expected to be a bumper harvest [3]. Cotton - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of cotton changed slightly. The commercial inventory decreased, and the industrial inventory remained stable. The export of textile products showed different trends [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The downstream industry is gradually weakening, and new cotton growth is good, with an expected increase in planting area [4]. Eggs - **Prices and Spreads**: Egg futures prices and related spreads changed slightly. Egg - laying chick prices remained stable, while the prices of culled chickens and feed - to - egg ratios increased slightly. The breeding profit improved [6]. Meal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed different trends. Various spreads and oil - meal ratios also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policies and abundant supply from Brazil have put pressure on the meal market. Domestic supply is recovering, and demand is weak [9]. Corn - **Market Data**: Corn and corn starch futures and spot prices changed slightly. The basis, spreads, and trade profits showed different trends. The inventory and vehicle numbers at deep - processing plants also changed [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of corn is gradually concentrated in traders. The downstream deep - processing industry is loss - making, and the substitution of wheat limits price increases. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support prices [11]. Pork - **Market Data**: Futures prices of pork decreased, while the trading volume increased. Spot prices remained stable, and various indicators such as slaughter volume, piglet prices, and breeding profits changed slightly [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply - demand relationship of pork is stable, with pressure on fat pigs and weak demand. The 09 contract is driven by funds, but the upward and downward momentum is not strong [15][16].

2025/5/16 10:13 【国富期货早间看点】印尼上调⽑棕榈油出⼝专项税⾄10% Anec 5 1427 20250515 【国富期货早间看点】印尼上调毛棕榈油出口专项税至10% Anec上 调巴西大豆5月出口预估至1427万吨 20250515 2025年05月15日 07:38 02 现货行情 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2505 | 华北 | N/A | N/A | N/A | | | 华东 | 8620 | 460 | -20 | | | 华南 | 8680 | 520 | -10 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8160 | 266 | -34 | | | 江苏 | 8280 | 386 | ୧ | | | 广东 | 8250 | 356 | ୧ | | | 天津 | 8260 | 366 | 56 | | DCE豆箱2509 | 山东 | 2960 | 57 | -38 | | | 江苏 | 2990 | 87 | -8 | | | 广东 | 3030 | 127 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may fall due to potential increases in production and inventory, with short - term fluctuations in domestic prices. There's a chance of reaching 8300 yuan. US policy proposals may boost soybean oil demand, but domestic inventory increases could drag down prices [1]. Sugar - Short - term, raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. Domestic sugar prices are supported currently but may face limited upside due to expected import increases, with a forecast range of 5800 - 5950 yuan [3]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices may oscillate in the short term. New cotton supply looks good, while downstream demand is slightly weak. Attention should be paid to the 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton pressure level [4]. Eggs - Abundant supply and general demand lead to a slightly tense supply - demand situation. Egg prices may decline slightly and then stabilize this week [6]. Meal - US soybean prices are pressured by biodiesel policy uncertainty and smooth sowing. Domestic supply is increasing, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to soybean meal performance around 2900 yuan [9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is stable with a sideways trend. In the long term, supply tightening and increased demand will support prices. Suggest buying on dips during corrections [11]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is driven by funds, with limited upside and downside potential. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening slaughter [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: Soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu dropped 0.84%, palm oil in Guangdong fell 2.27%, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased 0.31%. Futures prices also declined, while some basis values changed [1]. - **Policy Impact**: US policy proposals may increase soybean oil demand in biofuel production [1]. Sugar - **Market Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, while some spot prices increased. Production and sales increased year - on - year, and inventory decreased [3]. - **Industry Outlook**: Brazil's sugar production was affected by rain, but the 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest [3]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices dropped slightly, and some spot prices rose. Commercial inventory decreased, and import volume declined [4]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream demand is weakening, and new cotton supply is promising [4]. Eggs - **Price and Profit**: Futures prices declined, and the basis increased. Egg - layer chick prices were stable, and breeding profits improved [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is abundant, and demand is general [6]. Meal - **Price and Spread**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices changed, and various spreads also adjusted. US soybean prices are under pressure, and domestic supply is increasing [9]. - **Market Factors**: Uncertain US biodiesel policy and smooth sowing affect the market [9]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: Corn and corn starch prices changed. Corn inventory increased slightly, and starch inventory was stable [11]. - **Market Trends**: Short - term stability and long - term upward trend due to supply - demand changes [11]. Pigs - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices declined, and the spread between 7 - 9 contracts decreased. Spot prices were stable, and some indicators changed [15]. - **Market Conditions**: Stable supply - demand and potential second - fattening slaughter [15][16].

市场担忧生物燃料相关大宗商品前景，美豆从10个月高点回落，美豆油价格暴跌，这一因素带来的利空 影响也不容忽视！ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the second batch of the "Green Low-Carbon Advanced Technology Demonstration Project List" by the National Development and Reform Commission, which includes 101 projects aimed at carbon reduction across three main areas: source reduction, process reduction, and end-of-pipe carbon capture [1] Group 1: Biobased Materials and Fuels - The article highlights a project for producing 110,000 tons of biodegradable polyester rubber, which aims to address the degradation issues of traditional synthetic rubber, achieving a carbon reduction rate exceeding 31% [2] - Another project focuses on producing 30,000 tons of high-performance environmentally friendly biobased materials, which will reduce carbon emissions by over 30,000 tons annually [5] - A significant project involves processing 1 million tons of waste oil to produce sustainable aviation fuel, with the capacity to generate 670,000 tons of sustainable aviation fuel annually [6] - A project for producing 500,000 tons of biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel is also mentioned, with a production capacity of 400,000 tons of various bio-liquid fuels, achieving a 75% yield for sustainable aviation fuel [8]