Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the importance of developing a robust capital market in China as part of the financial power strategy, highlighting the need for investors to adapt their investment approaches to the new normal [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Market Context - The current global economic and geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, necessitating a stable and active capital market, which has become a top-level design priority [1]. - The recent secondary listing of CATL in Hong Kong set a record for the largest IPO in nearly three years, indicating a critical moment for the development of direct financing and capital markets in China [2]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Liu Jipeng argues that revitalizing the stock market is essential for reversing economic downturns and that a strong financial sector will enhance China's position in global power dynamics [2]. - Xiao Lisheng expresses optimism about the medium to long-term development of China's stock market, noting signs of stabilization in consumer spending and the real estate sector [3]. - Hu Xianghui discusses the journey of China's technological self-sufficiency and its importance in overcoming the middle-income trap, emphasizing sectors like AI and biotechnology as future investment opportunities [3]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Hou Wentao provides insights into the A-share market, identifying external tariffs and internal policies as key variables affecting market performance, and suggests that there are many tools available to support the market [4]. - The forum collectively aims to contribute to the high-quality development of China's financial market, encouraging investors to learn and adapt their strategies accordingly [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced significant volatility from April 16 to May 13, 2025, driven by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the evolution of the China-U.S. tariff conflict [1][2] - In the first phase (April 16-22), gold prices surged due to heightened risk aversion, with London spot gold breaking through $3,274 per ounce [2][3] - The second phase (April 23-May 6) saw gold prices fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce, influenced by liquidity tightening and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [4][5] - In the third phase (May 7-13), a joint statement from China and the U.S. to suspend 24% of mutual tariffs led to a sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly $50 to $3,218 per ounce [5][6] Group 2: Trade and Economic Implications - The suspension of tariffs is expected to boost market sentiment, with potential short-term rebounds in global stock markets, particularly in U.S. technology stocks and export-oriented companies [6][7] - China's trade with the U.S. showed short-term pressure but long-term resilience, with high-tech product exports increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [7][8] - The tariff suspension may lead to a recovery in exports of machinery and electrical products, while low-value goods like steel imports will continue to be suppressed [8][9] - The trade dynamics indicate a shift towards transshipment trade and adjustments in industrial chains, with companies potentially relocating production to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs [9][10] Group 3: Sectoral Analysis - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and demand release, while traditional manufacturing faces cost pressures and weak demand [9][10] - Long-term impacts include increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector in Q1 2025 [10][11] - The push for domestic autonomy in supply chains is accelerating, particularly in semiconductor equipment and industrial software, driven by the tariff conflict [11][12] Group 4: Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China from mid-April to early May 2025 appears stable, although the tariff conflict continues to exert significant influence on imports and exports [12][13] - The social financing scale is projected to be between 1.47 trillion and 1.48 trillion yuan in April, supported mainly by government bond net financing and corporate bond financing [13][14] - The real estate market shows a divergence in investment and sales, with a 9.9% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in Q1 2025, while transaction volumes in major cities increased by 14.7% in April [14][21]

Group 1 - The electronic industry is a technological pillar of modern society, with downstream applications in defense, communication, automotive, and healthcare, where semiconductors are a key segment for China's technological self-sufficiency [1] - The electronic industry is experiencing an upward cycle, driven by the rise of AI and robotics applications, with the release of DeepSeek R1 causing significant industry disruption [1] - The upcoming release of the R2 version of DeepSeek is expected to enhance the performance of domestic AI models, leading to a surge in demand for domestic AI applications and computing chips [1] Group 2 - China is a major supplier of optical modules globally, with leading manufacturers and stable production capacity, benefiting from the AI trend and achieving reasonable performance [2] - The electronic industry is projected to maintain a positive growth trend, with advancements in large models leading to diverse AI applications and the acceleration of domestic chip upgrades [2] - Humanoid robots are identified as a core scenario for the commercialization of AI, with domestic chip manufacturers like Rockchip (瑞芯微) supporting the intelligent upgrade of domestic robots [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 High-end Investment Forum" hosted by Jiufang Zhituo focuses on the themes of "Financial Power Strategy," "Technological Self-control," and "Mid-term Strategy Outlook," aiming to provide investors with insights amidst the complexities of the global economic landscape and US-China trade tensions [1][3][8]. Group 1: Forum Themes and Speakers - The forum will feature prominent speakers, including Liu Jipeng, who will discuss the strategic importance of the stock market in China's economic transformation [1][3]. - Liu Jipeng emphasizes that the stock market is not just about individual wealth but is crucial for the overall economic recovery of China [1][3]. - The second speaker, Xiao Lisheng, will analyze mid-term macroeconomic strategies against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions [4]. - Hu Xianghui will present on China's technological advancements and the path to self-sufficiency in technology, highlighting significant breakthroughs in hard technology [4]. - The final speaker, Hou Wentao, will provide insights on mid-term investment strategies based on the resilience observed in the A-share market [5]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The A-share market has shown a fluctuating upward trend in Q1 2025, influenced by renewed global trade tensions and US tariffs [3]. - The healthy development of China's capital market is seen as a key support for economic transformation and a core element of the financial power strategy [3][4]. - The forum aims to dissect the current global economic restructuring and its implications for investment opportunities and challenges [3][8]. - The event is positioned as a platform for intellectual exchange between academic leaders and market practitioners, potentially redefining investment logic for the latter half of 2025 [7][8]. Group 3: Outreach and Impact - The forum will be broadcasted through various platforms, ensuring wide accessibility and engagement with a diverse audience [7]. - Jiufang Zhituo has a dedicated research team of over 100 professionals, covering macroeconomics, industry research, and investment strategies [7]. - The forum is expected to provide valuable insights that align with the ongoing global economic order reconstruction and the critical revaluation of China's capital market [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The computer industry experienced steady revenue growth in 2024, with a significant improvement in profitability in Q1 2025, driven by advancements in robotics, AI agents, and other technologies [1][3] - In Q1 2025, the overall revenue of the industry increased by 15.90% year-on-year, with 56.14% of companies achieving positive growth and 44.15% accelerating their growth [7][13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 saw a substantial increase of 156.56% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from a decline of 80.11% in Q1 2024 [7][20] - The industry is expected to show resilience and growth potential due to ongoing developments in key areas such as robotics and AI [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Q1 Performance Overview - Revenue growth accelerated, with the industry achieving a total revenue of 284.59 billion yuan, a 15.90% increase year-on-year [7][13] - Profitability improved significantly, with the overall net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 3.046 billion yuan, a 156.56% increase compared to the previous year [20][24] - The median gross margin slightly decreased, while the overall expense control remained effective, with a median expense ratio of 44.37% [31][36] - Cash flow showed notable improvement, with operating net cash flow at -34.707 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery in industry confidence [38][39] 2024 Performance Overview - The industry achieved a revenue of 1,260.022 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 5.22% year-on-year growth [42][44] - However, the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 41.73%, indicating a challenging year for profitability [70][74] - The overall gross margin continued to decline, with a gross margin of 25.51% for 2024 [54][56] - Credit impairment losses increased by 13.06%, further impacting profitability [68][70] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies related to technology self-sufficiency, such as Softcom Power, Dameng Data, and others in the robotics sector [3] - Companies with strong fundamentals and significant growth potential, such as Hehe Information, are also recommended for investment [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate indicates a cautious approach, with no signs of economic slowdown observed [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut have diminished, with Goldman Sachs pushing back its forecast for a rate cut to December 2025 [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China remain critical, with high uncertainty in key sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Strategy - The focus for 2025 is on expanding domestic demand and consumption, as emphasized in the April Politburo meeting [2] - Policies to support consumption include financial backing for service consumption and the removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector [2] - Key sectors expected to benefit from these policies include home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should align with the direction of incremental policy support and self-sufficiency [3] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having relative valuation advantages, particularly in home appliances, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals [3][4] - Short-term opportunities are identified in service and retail sectors, while a cautious approach towards external risks is advised, suggesting a focus on defensive assets [4] Group 4: Technology and Self-Sufficiency - Emphasis on technology and self-sufficiency as a core defense against external risks, with a focus on domestic alternatives in sectors like semiconductors and emerging industries [4] - Areas of interest include consumer electronics and healthcare, driven by domestic demand [4]

本报告导读： 关税缓和之下，计算机投资价值凸显 [Table_Industry] 计算机 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.14 2025-05-15 021-38676666 021-38676666 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040027 S0880123070157 S0880124070047 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 此次关税缓和可以从多维度增强计算机板块投资信心，建议关注此前受到关税情绪 明显影响标的及具备长期趋势的 AI 产业链、科技自主可控以及绩优标的。 投资要点： 风险提示：国际政策环境变化；市场竞争加剧；需求不及预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 | | | | 股票名称 | 股价 | | EPS（元/股） | | | PE（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | 锐明技术 | 49.97 | 1.66 | 2.18 | 3.00 ...

21世纪经济报道特约记者 庞华玮 广州报道 据21世纪经报道记者了解，近日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，机构投资者的投资策略和调 仓方向出现了一些新变化。 有机构投资人士表示，近期企业抢融资出海建厂，因而在投资上，机构一边提高了对投资企业质地要 求，一边相应降低了对投资企业的估值要求。 业内人士认为，关税利好消息下，中国资产有望迎来较大的回升机会，后续可关注和积极做多A股和港 股等中国资产，机构也有望借此加仓中国资产。 其中，直接受益于关税下调的进出口相关行业迎来估值修复机会。与此同时，机构还重点关注三大方 向：科技、内需消费和红利。 A股和港股变化背后 5月12日发布的《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》带动了外围市场大涨。当日美股三大指数均大涨，道 指涨超1100点，纳指暴涨逾4%。尤其科技股巨头表现强劲。亚马逊涨超8%，苹果、特斯拉涨超6%，英 伟达涨逾5%。 同日，中国资产沸腾，纳斯达克金龙中国指数劲升超5%。港股收盘时，恒生指数大涨2.98%，恒生科技 指数暴涨5.16%。汽车、家电、软件服务、可选消费、半导体、机械等板块行情受到提振。 紧跟着的5月13日，A股收盘时，上证指数报3374.87点， ...

智通财经APP获悉，5月12日中美宣布关税大幅下调，美国对华平均关税从145%降至30%，中国同步取 消同等比例反制关税。这一超预期的政策调整不仅为中美经贸关系注入稳定剂，更在资本市场掀起波 澜。本文结合瑞银最新研究与市场动态，聚焦关税下调后的中国股市策略，重点剖析中美航运链的修复 逻辑与投资机会。 一、关税下调的 "三重红利" 与市场反应 1. 情绪修复与资金回流 关税降幅远超市场预期(此前普遍预期为降至 50-60%)，直接提振全球风险偏好。港股率先反应，恒生 指数当日上涨 3%，创 3 月初以来最大单日涨幅，出口链龙头舜宇光学科技(02382)、创科实业(00669)分 别飙升 14.8% 和 6.7%。A 股同样呈现积极信号，消费电子、半导体等关税敏感板块放量上涨，北向资 金单日净流入超百亿。 跨境电商与物流：华贸物流等企业因通关效率改善和贸易量回升，盈利预期上调。 2. 出口链成本重构 关税每降低 1 个百分点，企业出口成本平均减少 0.5%-0.8%。以美国市场为例，此次税率从 145% 降至 30%，相当于为中国出口商品卸下 "价格枷锁"，部分行业利润率有望提升 5%-8%。具体来看： 科技与高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made in the recent China-US Geneva trade talks, which resulted in a substantial reduction or suspension of tariffs imposed after April 2, providing a strong boost to the market [1] - The sectors that are expected to benefit from the tariff reductions include electronics, IT services, software development, and machinery equipment, particularly those with high export dependence [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market reacted positively to the announcement, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing significant gains, indicating potential upward momentum for related sectors in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Short-term beneficiaries of the trade talks are identified as export-oriented companies in sectors such as consumer electronics, components, machinery, and automotive parts, which are likely to show relative performance [2] - The reduction in tariff impacts is expected to improve investor risk appetite, although the short-term performance of dividend stocks may be muted [2] - In the medium term, as tariff shocks diminish, attention should be focused on the recovery of economic conditions, particularly in the AI industry, which is seen as a key growth area [2]