美国经济

Search documents
光大证券:二季度“抢进口”效应减弱 美国消费与投资难掩疲弱 下半年或重启降息
智通财经网· 2025-07-31 23:39
智通财经APP获悉,光大证券发表研报称,二季度"抢进口"效应减弱,美国进口环比折年率降 至-30.3%,导致净出口对GDP拖累大幅收敛,是二季度经济增速转正的重要原因。但另一方面,消费与 投资则难掩疲弱,其中二季度美国消费者信心指数低迷,相应地个人消费表现较弱,1.4%的环比增速 为2024年以来的次低值,私人投资环比折年率也降至-15.6%,因此不宜高估本次经济数据的韧性。光大 证券认为美联储在下半年重启降息操作的概率较大。 2025年7月30日,美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值:(1)二季度实际GDP年化季率初值 +3.0%,预期+2.4%,前值-0.5%;(2)二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%,预期+1.5%,前值 +0.5%;(3)二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%,预期+2.3%,前值+3.5%。 美国2025年二季度消费环比增速反弹,主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱下的净出口贡献,消费与投资则难掩 疲弱。一方面,二季度"抢进口"效应减弱,美国进口环比折年率降至-30.3%,导致净出口对GDP拖累大 幅收敛,是二季度经济增速转正的重要原因。但另一方面,消费与投资则难掩疲 ...
【宏观】“抢进口”效应减弱,难掩美国经济隐忧——2025年二季度美国经济数据点评(高瑞东/周欣平)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-31 23:04
点击注册小程序 2025 年 7 月 30 日,美股股指表现分化,道指、标普 500 分别下跌 0.4%、 0.1%,纳斯达克指数上涨 0.1%。10 年期国债收益率上行 4 个 bp 至 4.38%, 2 年期国债收益率上行 8 个 bp 至 3.94%。 事件: 2025年7月30日,美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值: 核心观点: 美国2025年二季度消费环比增速反弹,主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱下的净出口贡献,消费与投资则难掩疲弱。 一方面,二季度"抢进口"效应减弱,美国进口环比折年率降至-30.3%,导致净出口对GDP拖累大幅收敛,是二 季度经济增速转正的重要原因。但另一方面,消费与投资则难掩疲弱,其中二季度美国消费者信心指数低迷, 相应地个人消费表现较弱,1.4%的环比增速为2024年以来的次低值,私人投资环比折年率也降至-15.6%,因此 不宜高估本次经济数据的韧性。 从降息角度来看,美国经济增速转正,但消费与投资表现低迷,指向美国经济仍在下行通道中,美联储在下半 年重启降息的概率依然存在。就经济数据本身而言,客观上看,二季度经济数据高于预期,缓和经济衰退担 忧,相应地美联储选择在7 ...
美国经济数据超预期,后贸易战时代美元黄金何去何从?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 12:57
Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]
2025年二季度美国经济数据点评:“抢进口”效应减弱,难掩美国经济隐忧
EBSCN· 2025-07-31 06:41
2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 "抢进口"效应减弱,难掩美国经济隐忧 ——2025 年二季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | 事件: | | 分析师:高瑞东 | 2025 年 7 月 30 日,美国经济分析局公布 2025 年二季度 GDP 数据初值: | | 执业证书编号:S0930520120002 | | | 010-56513066 | 【1】二季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值+3.0%,预期+2.4%,前值-0.5%; | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%,预期+1.5%,前值+0.5%; | | 分析师:周欣平 | 【3】二季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%,预期+2.3%,前值+3.5%。 | | 执业证书编号:S0930525070005 | | | 010-57378026 | | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点: | | 关税滞胀效应显现,美国经济增速转负—— | | | 2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评(2 ...
美国2025年二季度GDP数据解读:美国内需延续转弱
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-31 03:14
Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate rebounded to 3% quarter-on-quarter annualized in Q2 2025, while the actual year-on-year growth rate remained at 2%, indicating a downward trend since Q3 2023[4] - Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) fell to a new low of 1.2% in Q2 2025, down from 1.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting a continued slowdown in domestic demand[7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending in Q2 2025 recorded a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.4%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to improved consumer confidence following reduced tariff uncertainties[5] - Year-on-year consumer spending growth fell to 2.4%, with services being the main contributor to this decline[8] Investment Trends - Investment fell sharply in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -15.6%, a decrease of 39.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, driven by the end of pre-tariff inventory accumulation[14] - Year-on-year investment growth also declined to -0.1%, with non-residential construction investment dropping to -3.8%[14] Trade Dynamics - Exports fell by -1.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, while imports saw a significant decline of -30.3%, down 68.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a retreat from the previous quarter's import surge[20] - Year-on-year import growth decreased by 11.6 percentage points to 1.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since December 2023, excluding Q1 2025[20] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, suggesting an increase in individuals permanently exiting the labor market[21] - Non-farm payrolls increased slightly to 147,000 in June, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly[21]
7月FOMC会议点评:美联储内部分歧加大,降息或尚需时日
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-31 01:33
宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 31 日 美联储内部分歧加大,降息或尚需时日 宏观研究团队 ——7 月 FOMC 会议点评 hening@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522110002 何宁(分析师) 潘纬桢(分析师) panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790122110044 事件:美联储于北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨 2 点发布 7 月 FOMC 会议声明,宣布保 持利率水平不变。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储在此次会议上宣布维持利率水平在 4.25%-4.5%区间。缩表方面,将继 续按照 3 月 FOMC 会议上的原定计划执行。 2. 再次维持利率水平不变,认为经济不确定性仍高,出现 2 张反对票。在声明 中,美联储的措辞同 6 月份相比略有变化,认为虽然净出口的波动影响了经济数 据,但上半年美国经济活动增长有所放缓。就业与通胀方面,与 6 月表述基本相 同。但美联储认为美国经济前景的不确定性依旧高涨。此外,本次会议中出现两 票反对,鲍曼以及沃勒认为本次会议中应该降息 25bp,与其前期表态一致,但 凸显出美联储内部的分歧进一步显性化。 3. 发布会上,鲍威尔表态 ...
分析师:美国经济稳健,预计年内仅降息一次
news flash· 2025-07-30 18:58
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy remains robust, with expectations of only one interest rate cut within the year due to stable unemployment and resilient corporate earnings [1] Economic Policy - U.S. fiscal policy continues to be accommodative, with the passage of Trump's "beautiful big plan" expected to contribute up to 1 percentage point to economic growth in its first year, although the marginal effect will gradually decrease [1] Labor Market - The unemployment rate remains stable, and real wages continue to grow, indicating a strong labor market [1] Corporate Performance - Corporate earnings are showing resilience, contributing to the overall stability of the U.S. economy [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Unless there is a significant shock to the labor market or renewed concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, it is anticipated that the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see approach, with a potential interest rate cut later in the year [1] Inflation and Growth Balance - Future policy direction will largely depend on the balance between inflation and growth [1]
美国财长贝森特:美国经济重拾信心和动能。基本面和总统特朗普的那些政策都“让人难以置信”。
news flash· 2025-07-30 14:45
美国财长贝森特:美国经济重拾信心和动能。 基本面和总统特朗普的那些政策都"让人难以置信"。 ...