Core Insights - Recent data indicates signs of weakening in the US economy, with new tariff policies set to impact economic growth and inflation [1] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is observed at 94.4%, suggesting potential monetary easing in response to economic pressures [1] - The US stock market experienced a volatile rebound, with the Nasdaq reaching a new historical high, raising questions about future performance amid tariff implementation and earnings reports [1] Economic Indicators - The new tariff pressures are expected to moderately elevate inflation, which may suppress economic vitality in the US [1] - There is an increasing pressure for economic slowdown, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement further rate cuts within the year [1] Market Outlook - The earnings season for US stocks is anticipated to be characterized by high-level fluctuations, with three key scenarios to monitor as the market reacts to new economic data and tariff impacts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's assertion that tariffs are sending billions to the U.S. economy is misleading, as the burden of these tariffs falls primarily on American importers and consumers rather than foreign entities [2][6][10] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - In FY 2023, U.S. tariff revenue reached approximately $79.3 billion, nearly double the average before 2018, but this revenue is paid by U.S. importers and ultimately passed on to consumers [2] - Tariffs have been shown to protect certain domestic industries, such as a 50% increase in U.S. washing machine production post-tariff, but this has resulted in higher consumer prices, with washing machines costing an average of $86 more [6][8] Employment and Manufacturing - Despite claims of a manufacturing revival due to tariffs, U.S. manufacturing jobs actually decreased by nearly 40,000 in 2019, contradicting the narrative presented by Trump [4] - The high tariffs have led to retaliatory measures from trading partners, significantly reducing U.S. agricultural exports and resulting in historically high agricultural subsidy expenditures [6][8] Political Strategy - Trump's use of tariffs appears to be a political strategy, framing them as a means to extract money from foreign entities while simultaneously preparing to blame the judiciary if tariffs are overturned [8][10] - The narrative surrounding tariffs serves as a tool for political leverage, especially in the context of upcoming negotiations and elections [10] Public Perception and Consequences - The public may overlook the economic implications of tariffs, continuing to bear the costs at retail outlets while potentially losing jobs in export sectors [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated negative impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy has not yet materialized, leading to questions about the accuracy of economists' predictions regarding economic downturns due to tariffs [1][4][6]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - Economists predict that tariffs will ultimately be borne by consumers, leading to inflation and reduced consumer spending, which could result in a recession [3][4]. - Current economic indicators show signs of stagnation, with growth slowing and inflation rising, attributed to multiple factors rather than solely the tariffs [5][6]. Quantitative Analysis - The Yale Budget Lab forecasts a 0.5 percentage point reduction in U.S. economic growth due to tariffs, equating to a loss of approximately $150 billion, or $1,000 per household annually [6][7]. - Despite the tariffs, the U.S. economy remains relatively stable, with the stock market reaching new highs, partly due to advancements in artificial intelligence [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is mitigated by the country's diverse economy, where imports constitute only 11% of GDP, and the strength of the service sector [9][12]. - The overall effect of tariffs on inflation is evident, with prices for certain goods rising while others, like gasoline, have decreased due to global economic pressures [10][12]. Long-term Considerations - The full economic effects of tariffs will take time to manifest, and the situation may worsen as tariffs continue to be implemented [12][14]. - The challenges posed by tariffs extend beyond immediate economic losses, potentially undermining foundational aspects of U.S. growth such as trade, immigration, and innovation [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant economic pain in the U.S. due to the implementation of tariffs, with economists warning of a potential long-term erosion of the economy rather than an immediate collapse [1][2] - The tariffs, effective from August 7, have already begun to show detrimental effects on the U.S. economy, with reports indicating stagnation in job growth and rising inflation pressures since the introduction of the tariffs in April [1][2] - The uncertainty created by the tariffs is affecting both consumers and businesses, leading to a slowdown in economic activity, as noted by experts who compare the situation to sand in gears, gradually impeding the economy [2] Group 2 - The tariffs have led to a significant increase in costs for nearly all goods entering the U.S., disrupting the global trade landscape and potentially leading to further inflation and reduced economic growth [2] - Despite the current domestic impact being milder than expected, evidence suggests that the tariffs are slowly re-triggering inflation and dragging down U.S. economic growth rates [2]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 shows an annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of 2.6% and Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 2.9% [1] - The seasonally adjusted GDP amount for Q2 is $5.9 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth of 3% [1] - The GDP growth rate is positioned as the 5th highest in the last 14 quarters, indicating a relatively strong performance [1] Group 2: GDP Composition - Personal consumption accounts for approximately 68% of GDP, private investment around 18%, government spending about 17%, and net exports at -3% [2] - Retail sales in June reached $720 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a cumulative total of $4.2 trillion for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [2] - Core retail sales, which make up about three-quarters of total sales, amounted to $533 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment Dynamics - The reduction in trade deficit contributed significantly to GDP growth, with Q2 trade deficit shrinking from $3,906 billion in Q1 to $1,921 billion in Q2, a decrease of 51% [4] - Q2 exports totaled $846.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while imports decreased by 2% [4] - Private investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year rate of -15.6% in Q2, contributing negatively to GDP [6] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - July saw only 70,000 new non-farm jobs added, significantly below expectations, with previous months' figures revised downwards [5] - The unemployment rate, while low at 4.2%, is showing signs of a potential increase, indicating underlying labor market weaknesses [5] - The labor market's performance is critical as it reflects the overall economic health and consumer spending capacity [5] Group 5: Economic Challenges - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to negatively impact personal consumption, private investment, and net exports in the short term [3] - The overall economic growth appears to be uneven, with concerns about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory [4] - The real estate market is cooling, with new home sales down 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges in the housing sector [6]

美媒：就业数据不佳，特朗普用图表为美国经济辩护 中新网8月8日电 据美联社报道，当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普出人意料地将记者召集到白宫椭圆形办 公室，向他们展示了一些图表，并声称这些图表表明美国经济依然稳健。劳工统计局发布了上个月的就 业数据之后，经济状况引发了担忧。特朗普对数据不满，解雇了劳工统计局局长。 报道称，陪同特朗普谈论经济问题的是保守派智库传统基金会学者、《特朗普经济学》一书的合著者斯 蒂芬·穆尔。 编辑：熊思怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 穆尔展示了一系列图表，试图称赞特朗普的经济表现，并淡化前总统拜登的经济成绩。特朗普站在穆尔 旁边，时而插话表示赞同。 穆尔表示，他收集了一些数据，证明特朗普解雇劳工统计局局长的决定是正确的。穆尔指出，劳工统计 局的报告高估了拜登任期最后两年创造的就业岗位数量。 "我认为他们是故意这么做的。"特朗普说道。 报道指出，特朗普在第一任期内曾提名穆尔担任美联储理 ...

Core Points - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations and breaching the 100,000 threshold, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - Despite the disappointing job growth, the unemployment rate remained at approximately 4.2%, which is puzzling given the job losses [1][4] - The release of the employment data led to a sharp decline in the stock market, with the Dow and S&P indices dropping nearly 2% and Nasdaq falling over 2.6% [4][8] - The credibility of the official employment data has been called into question due to the significant downward revisions, which undermines public trust in the data [4][8] - The political implications of the employment data are significant, as it reflects the ongoing power struggle and political maneuvering within the U.S. government, particularly in an election year [7][8] Group 1 - The July employment data was disappointing, with only 73,000 new jobs added, and prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, raising questions about the relationship between job growth and unemployment [1][4] - The stock market reacted negatively to the employment data, with major indices experiencing significant declines [4][8] Group 2 - The substantial revisions to employment data have led to skepticism regarding its accuracy and reliability [4][8] - The political context surrounding the employment data suggests it is being used as a tool for political gain, particularly by the Trump administration [7][8] - The situation highlights the intersection of economic data and political strategy, especially in the lead-up to elections [7][8]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View - The precious metals are in a volatile trend. With the geopolitical situation cooling down and tariff policies gradually implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and the prospects of interest rate cuts. Amid continuous verification, market sentiment will face fluctuations. If the scenarios of stagflation or even recession become clearer, the upside potential for gold may be reopened. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' volatile trend [1] Other Key Points Economic Data and Market Reaction - Last week, the US released multiple economic data. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q2 rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the key non - farm payrolls data changed unexpectedly. The non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and instructed his team to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director immediately. The market's concerns about the authenticity of economic data and the US economic outlook have intensified [1] Fed Policy and Market Expectations - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined based on economic data. With the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said that the time for rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely to cut rates more than twice this year [1][2] Tariff - related News - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months and is waiting for Trump to take action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariff rates on India because the country buys Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July 2025, approaching the expected 4.2%[5] - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[5][48] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.3% to 62.2% in July, with declines across three age groups, except for those aged 55 and above, which saw a 0.1 percentage point increase[7][25] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 80%, and the likelihood of two or more cuts in 2025 increased to 87%[5][11] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 2-year yield dropping by 25 basis points, while all major stock indices declined, with Nasdaq down 2.2%[5][12] Job Sector Analysis - In the private sector, five industries reported job losses in July, while the government sector saw a decrease of 10,000 jobs; however, private sector jobs increased by 83,000 when excluding government jobs[9][69] - The largest job gains in the private sector were in education and health services (79,000), followed by retail (16,000) and financial activities (15,000)[70] Unemployment Claims - The number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance remained stable at 1.946 million as of July 19, 2025, which is approximately 640,000 higher than the lowest point in mid-2022[10][32] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 218,000 for the week ending July 26, 2025, with a monthly average of 221,000, down by 20,000 from June[10][36]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - In July, the A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 5.2%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 8.14% [1] - The average daily trading volume was approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, and the average daily margin balance was about 1.79 trillion yuan [1] - The steel, pharmaceutical, building materials, communication, and electronics sectors showed the highest gains, while banking, utilities, transportation, food and beverage, and automotive sectors lagged behind [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3, with production, new orders, and raw material inventory all declining [2] - New orders decreased to 49.4, and new exports dropped to 47.1, both below seasonal averages [2] - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6, while the services PMI decreased slightly to 50, indicating a downturn in both sectors [3] Group 3: U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, leading to a drop in risk appetite globally [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and previous months' job additions were significantly revised downward, affecting market perceptions of the economy [4] - The adjustment in employment data has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and a drop in the dollar, while gold prices increased [4] Group 4: Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment followed by a potential upward trend, with high-risk preference funds possibly exiting due to a lack of continuous hot spots [5] - There is a focus on structural opportunities in industries such as AI applications, military, and non-bank sectors, while banking remains a defensive option [6] - The market is showing signs of a shift in risk appetite, with a more rational approach to investment as it moves towards a healthier state [6]