美联储巴尔：由于关税，通胀率将上升。美国经济基础稳固，失业率低且稳定，通胀仍在持续回落。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the US economy is in a good state, with a strong labor market, and that a moderate tightening of monetary policy allows for the examination of new data [1] Economic Conditions - The US economy is characterized as being in a good state, indicating overall economic stability and growth potential [1] - The labor market remains robust, suggesting low unemployment and strong job creation [1] Monetary Policy - A moderate tightening of monetary policy is being implemented, which provides flexibility to assess incoming economic data [1]

美联储哈玛克：美国经济势头强劲，就业市场到目前为止也很稳定。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signals resistance to calls for interest rate cuts in July, stating that the U.S. economy remains "solid" despite uncertainties from Trump's trade war and other policy changes [1][4] - Following Powell's testimony, U.S. short-term interest rate futures slightly declined, indicating reduced expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Powell acknowledges that while the impact of tariffs may be milder than previously predicted, he emphasizes that tariff increases could raise prices and dampen economic activity [4][5] Group 2 - Fed officials Waller and Bowman express support for a rate cut in July, citing recent inflation data showing that the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices is less than expected [3] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May 2026, and he faces criticism from President Trump for maintaining current interest rates, with Trump calling for a reduction of up to 3 percentage points [4] - The current target range for the Fed's benchmark interest rate is 4.25%-4.5%, which is considered restrictive and above the neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates growth [6]

长期通胀预期与2%目标一致。 政策变化对经济的影响仍不确定。 关税可能推高物价并拖累经济。 美联储主席鲍威尔：最终的关税水平将决定其影响。 美国经济和劳动力市场依然稳固。 通胀显著缓和，仍在一定程度上高于目标。 ...

美国总统特朗普：美国经济和劳动力市场仍然保持稳健。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Kugler did not comment on FOMC monetary policy or the U.S. economy [1] Group 1 - The lack of commentary from Kugler may indicate a cautious approach towards future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly stated that both the U.S. economy and the FOMC's monetary policy are currently in a good state [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is performing well, indicating stability and growth potential [1] - The FOMC's monetary policy is also described as being in a favorable condition, suggesting effective management of economic conditions [1]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive time since the end of 2024, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 2.8% for 2024, despite challenges, and the unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% in December 2024 [4][5] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core PCE price index dropping to 2.1% in early 2024 but rebounding to 2.8% by May 2025, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4][5] Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, leading to a shift from aggressive rate hikes to a more cautious stance [5] - Following a series of rate increases from near-zero to a peak of 5.33%, the Fed has since implemented three rate cuts in 2024, bringing the current rate to 4.25% to 4.5% [5] - Economic forecasts for 2025 indicate a GDP growth adjustment from 1.7% to 1.4% and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.5%, highlighting the need for careful policy balancing [5][6] External Influences - Global economic uncertainties, particularly changes in trade policies and tariffs, have impacted the Fed's decision-making process, necessitating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [6] - The Fed's policy contrasts with other central banks, which have initiated rate cuts, reflecting the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision on June 18, 2025, U.S. stock markets reacted moderately, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.2% and the S&P 500 slightly declining by 0.03% [7] - Market expectations suggest two potential rate cuts in 2025, with probabilities of maintaining rates in July at 89% and a 61% chance of a cut in September [7] Impact on Consumers - The current interest rate environment, while lower than 2023 peaks, remains high, affecting borrowing costs for consumers, particularly in housing and auto loans [8] - The average 30-year mortgage rate stood at approximately 6.7% in March 2025, significantly higher than 3.0% in 2021, leading to reduced demand in the housing market [8] - High interest rates benefit savers with yields above 4% on high-yield savings accounts, but potential future rate cuts may compress these returns [8] Future Outlook - The Fed's cautious stance is expected to continue into the latter half of 2025, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.1% and unemployment slightly increasing [9] - The Fed's policy will remain flexible, adapting to economic data and external factors, including geopolitical risks and climate change [9]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 近期美国经济硬数据与软数据之间的分歧开始收敛，越来越多的硬数据开始指向经济下行。本文通过对美国就业、库存、投资、消费、金融条件五个维度的前瞻指 标拆分，总结了当前美国经济的现状与前景：经济呈下行趋势，但爆发风险的概率不大，结构来看：①就业市场呈结构性弱化，供需关系显著降温；②当前处于补 库存周期，未来大规模补库概率不大；③投资方面企业投资或继续下行，地产投资难有起色；④居民消费能力减弱，但爆发风险的概率小；⑤金融条件：处于宽松 状态。 报告摘要 1 、美国就业市场：呈结构性弱化，供需关系显著降温 就业市场现状：薪资偏强，但就业呈现结构性弱化。 根据亚特兰大联储对就业数据的拆分，将就业数据划分为 5 个维度。从目前的就业数据来看，尽管薪资增长 依然较快（衡量薪资的三个指标均处于过去 10 年 50%-75% 分位数水平），但就业市场的结构性数据提示就业市场已经在弱化，例如就业市场信心指标、雇主行 为指标等普遍弱于过去 10 年 50% 分位数。 从就业市场供需关系来 ...