Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, with improving corporate profits and stable business confidence, but signs of weakness are emerging, and economic growth is expected to slow down [3] - High uncertainty regarding trade policies, particularly U.S. tariff measures, poses a negative impact on Japan's economy, primarily affecting export companies and potentially weakening consumer confidence [3][8] Wage and Consumption - Actual wages in Japan are currently negative, significantly impacting consumption and the economy [7] - As real wages gradually improve, consumption is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [6] Inflation and Prices - Japan's core inflation rate is slightly below the 2% target, with the gap between basic inflation and overall inflation expected to narrow [9] - Cost-push inflation is having a significant adverse effect on households, but pressures from rising import prices are anticipated to diminish [9] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan has no preset plans for interest rate hikes and will consider raising rates only when economic and price conditions align with expectations [11] - The central bank aims to achieve a 2% inflation target and will implement monetary policy based on price and economic developments [12] Currency and Bond Market - A strong yen negatively impacts export and manufacturing profits but improves household real income; stable exchange rates are crucial for market stability [14] - Long-term bond yield fluctuations can affect short- and medium-term yields, with domestic investors being the primary buyers of long-term Japanese government bonds [14] Recent Rate Decisions - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, marking the largest increase among three hikes since March and July 2024 [16] - The central bank remains optimistic about economic and inflation conditions, with a projected CPI inflation rate of 2.4% for FY2025, up by 0.5 percentage points [16]

全球贸易战硝烟再起之际，华尔街金融圈一个简单的四字缩写—"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，意为"特朗普总是临阵退缩"）刺痛了美国总统的神 经，并可能引发更加剧烈且不可预测的市场波动。 5月以来，贸易政策的不确定性已从4月初的高点大幅下滑，但随着各种关税和限制政策重返头条，不确定性再度回升。 特朗普的贸易政策一直呈现出摇摆不定的特点。仅在过去一周，他就威胁对欧盟实施50%的关税，据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普在社 交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。而随后又延长了实施期限。 "TACO"为何会点燃特朗普的怒火？不仅是语言，更是面子 "TACO"这个缩写最早由《金融时报》的Robert Armstrong于5月2日提出，用以概括特朗普在关税政策上反复无常的模式——先是抛出天价威胁，随后在市场 压力或谈判妥协下退让。 Armstrong指出，这种模式已成为市场规律：特朗普的关税威胁往往导致股价下挫，但当他政策转向时，市场又会迅速反弹。华尔街很快将其内化，交易员甚 至将"TACO"作为交易策略的一部分，押注总统的"临阵退缩"。 短短几周内，"TAC ...

Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's potential increase of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% raises trade policy uncertainty [1][8] - The Oxford Economics economist Edward Allenby indicates that the courts are playing a larger role in determining tariff levels, which may further exacerbate trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 2: US-UK Economic Prosperity Agreement - The US and UK reached a non-legally binding "Economic Prosperity Agreement" (EPD) on May 8, which has raised concerns among international law experts regarding its terminology [3] - The EPD does not eliminate reciprocal tariffs but lowers tariffs on certain industries such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3: US-China Trade Negotiations - A joint statement from the US and China on May 12 outlines mutual commitments to cancel and modify tariffs, with the US agreeing to eliminate 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - China will also suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against US goods [4] Group 4: Impact of Legal Challenges - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority regarding global tariffs, but the appeals court temporarily stayed this ruling, allowing tariffs to remain in effect [7] - The ongoing legal battles between the Trump administration and US federal courts are influencing the progress of international negotiations [5][7] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - Countries like Japan, India, and South Korea are reassessing their negotiation strategies with the US following the suspension of tariffs on China [6] - India's plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth $1.91 billion indicates a shift in its trade stance under Prime Minister Modi [6]

全球贸易战硝烟再起之际，华尔街金融圈一个简单的四字缩写—"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，意为"特朗普总是临阵退缩"）刺痛了美国总统的神经，并可能引发更加剧烈且不可预测的市场波 动。 5月以来，贸易政策的不确定性已从4月初的高点大幅下滑，但随着各种关税和限制政策重返头条，不确 定性再度回升。 特朗普的贸易政策一直呈现出摇摆不定的特点。仅在过去一周，他就威胁对欧盟实施50%的关税，随后 又延长了实施期限。 "TACO"为何会点燃特朗普的怒火？不仅是语言，更是面子 "TACO"这个缩写最早由《金融时报》的Robert Armstrong于5月2日提出，用以概括特朗普在关税政策上 反复无常的模式——先是抛出天价威胁，随后在市场压力或谈判妥协下退让。 一位知情人士向媒体透露： "他最无法容忍的是，人们认为他的关税调整是软弱的表现。" "'TACO'显然触及了他的核心痛点——作为一个自诩为强硬交易者的总统，任何暗示其示弱 的言论都是不可接受的。" 值得注意的是，尽管特朗普的贸易威胁常常引起市场波动，但美股刚刚完成了自1997年以来最佳5月表 现。这种表现某种程度上印证了"TACO交易"— ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the Canadian economy's 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter does not indicate positive developments in the new tariff era, and it is insufficient to compel the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates on June 4 [1] Economic Growth Analysis - The 2.2% GDP growth was primarily driven by pre-tariff effects on exports and inventory accumulation, while domestic demand remains weak [1] - Continuous monitoring of second-quarter data is necessary to determine if there is further deterioration in domestic demand [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The analyst expects the Bank of Canada to maintain a "dovish hold" policy but anticipates potential rate cuts in July, October, and December if signs of economic weakness persist [1] - If consumer spending and investment do not improve, combined with trade policy uncertainties, the central bank may need to implement multiple rate cuts to stimulate the economy [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth in three years, complicating interest rate outlooks [1] - Australia's retail sales in April fell by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected growth of 0.3%, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [2] - Retail sales in Australia for April reached AUD 37.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 3.8%, reflecting a decline in clothing retail due to unseasonably warm weather [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The San Francisco Fed President indicated the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, contingent on ensuring inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) has lowered its consumption expectations for the year but remains hopeful for a combination effect from tax cuts, easing inflation, and lower borrowing costs [2] - Market expectations suggest a 60% probability of a rate cut at the RBA's July meeting, with analysts anticipating three rate cuts within the year, bringing the cash rate to a neutral level of 3.10% [3] Group 3: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the US dollar to 0.6424 following the retail sales data release, with a cumulative decline of over 1% for the week [3] - The New Zealand dollar also dropped 0.3% against the US dollar, maintaining a recent trading range of 0.5847 to 0.6031 [3] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank cut rates to 3.25% but did not signal further easing, providing temporary support for the New Zealand dollar [4]

日本央行行长植田和男：我们意识到企业在价格和工资设定方面的积极行为仍在持续。下调通胀预期反 映出贸易政策不确定性对全球增长的压力，以及成本推动型通胀放缓和近期原油价格大幅下跌的影响。 ...

金十数据5月30日讯，外媒对企业信息披露的分析显示，特朗普的贸易战给企业造成了超过340亿美元的 销售损失和更高的成本，关税的持续不确定性使一些世界上最大的公司的决策陷入瘫痪，这一损失预计 还会上升。在美国、亚洲和欧洲，苹果、福特、保时捷和索尼等公司纷纷下调或大幅下调了利润预期， 绝大多数公司表示，特朗普贸易政策的不稳定性使其无法准确估算成本。这一估值囊括了标普500指数 中的32家公司、欧洲斯托克600指数中的3家公司和日本日经225指数中的21家公司。经济学家说，企业 的损失可能是企业迄今披露的金额的数倍。 特朗普关税给全球大企业制造了340亿美元的损失 ...

金十数据5月29日讯，美联储会议纪要提到，工作人员继续注意到围绕贸易政策和其他经济政策的大量 不确定性，现在认为预测的不确定性相对于过去20年的平均水平有所上升。实际经济活动的风险被认为 倾向于下行，工作人员认为，经济陷入衰退的可能性几乎与基线预测一样大。对2025年通胀预测的大幅 上调被认为是为了使围绕该年通胀预测的风险保持平衡。此后，美联储工作人员继续认为，围绕通胀预 测的风险偏向上行，最近一些通胀预期指标的上升，提高了通胀将比基线预测假设更持久的可能性。 美联储会议纪要：不确定性相对于过去20年的平均水平有所上升 ...

报告强调，企业在评估需求前景时表现出明显谨慎态度，并将重点转向成本削减，这直接反映了特朗普贸易政策带来的不确定性冲击。与此同 时，国会正在辩论的税收立法也让企业处于观望状态，进一步抑制了投资冲动。 剔除波动性较大的运输设备，4月份耐用品订单环比增长0.2%，好于市场持平的预期。 作为衡量企业设备投资的非波动性指标，核心资本货物订单（不包括飞机和军事硬件）上月下降1.3%，创去年10月以来最大跌幅，此前3月份的 数据向上修正为增长0.3%。 由于订单可能被取消，美国政府在计算国内生产总值（GDP）时更侧重于出货量数据，因为出货量反映了实际支付的发生。数据显示，4月份核心 资本货物出货量下降0.1%。 受商用飞机订单锐减拖累，美国4月份耐用品订单超预期下滑，核心资本货物订单（不包括飞机和军事硬件）下降1.3%，创去年10月以来最大跌 幅。在关税和税收政策不确定性的影响下，企业投资意愿正在减弱。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，美国4月耐用品订单环比初值暴跌6.3%，预期值为-7.8%，前值由9.20%修正为7.50%。 波动性较大的商用飞机订单在4月份暴跌51.5%，此前3月份有所增长。波音公司表示，4月份仅收到8 ...