Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its World Economic Outlook report, projecting global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast [1] - The report indicates that the upward revision in global economic growth expectations is broad-based, with more significant increases for countries like China [1] - The forecast for the US economy has been adjusted to 1.9% and 2% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous predictions [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that while the global economy remains stable, the composition of economic activity suggests distortions caused by tariffs rather than fundamental strength [2] - High levels of economic policy uncertainty are expected to persist this year and next, with potential downward risks from unstable trade policies and geopolitical tensions [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy uncertainty and suggests that bilateral cooperation can help alleviate trade tensions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, indicating that the world economy remains fragile due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies and other factors [1] Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from its April forecasts [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% and 4% in the next two years, up by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous predictions [1] - Developed economies are projected to grow by 1.5% and 1.6%, with both figures raised by 0.1 percentage points [1] Factors Influencing Economic Outlook - The upward revision in forecasts is attributed to importers stockpiling goods in anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs, which has distorted global economic activity [1] - The IMF warns that high uncertainty in trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal vulnerabilities pose risks to global economic stability [1] Recommendations for Economic Cooperation - The IMF emphasizes the importance of clear and transparent trade frameworks to mitigate uncertainties and encourages practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [1]

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of having a well-defined investment strategy before entering the market, akin to preparing for a battle [1] - It highlights the necessity of being proactive in predicting market trends and taking advantage of favorable conditions while maintaining strict risk control [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Recent gold prices have shown volatility, with a significant drop to a near three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, influenced by a strong dollar and improved global risk appetite [2] - The article notes that gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates, which could lead to further declines [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3300, they may test the $3250 support level, while a recovery above $3340 could signal a bullish trend [2][3][5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are experiencing upward momentum due to rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Brent crude nearing $70 per barrel [6] - The article discusses the complexities in market sentiment due to geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming OPEC+ meetings that may influence supply decisions [6] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a mid-term upward trend, with short-term movements influenced by recent news, indicating a potential for further gains [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of global markets, particularly focusing on trade policy uncertainty, monetary policy expectations, and macroeconomic data trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The Euro area composite flash PMI rose to 51.0, indicating positive growth momentum. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, supported by a 'Goldilocks' regime characterized by favorable growth conditions and risk asset returns [1][8]. 2. **Trade Policy Uncertainty**: Trade policy uncertainty has decreased to its lowest level since January, with recent trade agreements between Japan and the US, as well as the EU and US, setting reciprocal tariffs at 15%. This has positively impacted Japanese equities, particularly in the Autos and Industrial sectors [2][21]. 3. **Monetary Policy Expectations**: Expectations for monetary policy have shifted to a less dovish stance, with the ECB indicating a "wait and see" approach. The FOMC and BoJ are also expected to maintain current rates. This shift is reflected in the flattening of the 2s10s curves across G4 economies [3][17]. 4. **Earnings Season Performance**: The Q2 earnings season in the US has surprised positively, with markets pricing in larger moves for individual stocks compared to the index. Speculative trading activity has increased, which may support near-term equity returns [3][19]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The asset allocation remains tactically neutral and modestly pro-risk for the next 12 months. The current 'Goldilocks' regime is expected to persist, driven by falling trade uncertainty and supportive macro data [4][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **GDP Growth Forecasts**: Japan's GDP growth forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points for FY'25/'26 following the trade agreement announcements [2][10]. 2. **Market Volatility**: The report notes that markets are currently pricing in 2.4 times larger moves for the average stock compared to the index, indicating heightened volatility expectations [3][19]. 3. **Sector Performance**: The rally in Japan was led by cyclical sectors, particularly Autos and Industrials, as defensive sectors were repriced higher [2][10]. 4. **Future Economic Indicators**: Upcoming economic indicators, including US NFPs, ISM, and advance GDP prints, are expected to provide further insights into the economic landscape [7][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current market dynamics, trade policy developments, and monetary policy expectations that are shaping investment strategies.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basis for the US dollar's correction has loosened due to the lack of new driving forces. The US dollar index is in a volatile and weak pattern, while the RMB exchange market continues to operate smoothly. The euro lacks internal driving force for its movement, and the Japanese yen strengthens due to increased global risk aversion [1][3][4] - Fundamentally, the economic expectation difference is neutral, the Sino - US interest rate spread is neutral, and the uncertainty of trade policies is neutral, with the marginal negative impact weakening [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis US Dollar against RMB - The US dollar index is under pressure this week. The preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, and Trump's tariff proposal has raised concerns about inflation and trade frictions. China's cross - border payments and receipts have reached a record high, and the foreign exchange market continues the net inflow pattern. The RMB's global payment share in June was 2.88%, and the LPR remains unchanged [1] Other Currencies - **Euro**: The economic recovery in the eurozone is slow, and the tariff negotiation process is sluggish. The preliminary values of the composite PMI and manufacturing PMI in July are 51 and 49.8 respectively, still in the contraction range. The European Central Bank maintains the interest rate unchanged and emphasizes "exceptional uncertainty" [3] - **Yen**: The US - Japan tariff crisis has eased. Japan's manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 48.8. After the two countries reached a tariff agreement, the yen strengthened due to increased risk - aversion demand [3] Strategy - **US Dollar against RMB**: It will maintain a short - term volatile and weak pattern within a range, as the US dollar index is under pressure and the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [4] - **Euro**: It will maintain a volatile pattern due to weak consumption in the eurozone and ongoing US - EU trade negotiation games [4] - **Yen**: It will maintain a relatively strong volatile pattern after the US - Japan trade agreement [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high overseas, and the pattern of stronger domestic prices may continue. With the domestic downstream in the off - season and slower inventory depletion, and continuously improving macro - expectations, the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices also rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. In the industrial aspect, it is the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has declined, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Against the backdrop of favorable domestic and overseas macro - conditions and high market risk appetite, the macro - environment strongly supports non - ferrous metals. With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will also show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Overseas: Gold prices continued to fall in the second half of the week, and silver and copper may have also been significantly affected and declined. - Domestic: The domestic market atmosphere was good last week, with commodities generally rising. In the first half of the week, the non - ferrous metal sector rose across the board, but in the second half, the long - short game intensified, the market showed obvious differentiation, and the non - ferrous metal sector showed a downward trend with reduced positions [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. SHFE copper once touched the 80,000 RMB mark, and LME copper once approached the 10,000 US - dollar mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions, and the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2]. - **Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end, and the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [21]. - **Slower Depletion of Electrolytic Copper Inventory**: The depletion of domestic electrolytic copper inventory has slowed down, and the inventory is low in China and high overseas [2]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is provided in the report, but no specific analysis is given [29]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell last week, and the main contract price of SHFE aluminum once touched the 21,000 RMB mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions after the price approached 21,000 RMB [3]. - **Upstream Industrial Chain**: Information on the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina is provided, but no specific analysis is given [39]. - **Accumulation of Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the overseas inventory is also shown in the report [3]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods and the processing fees and inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are provided, but no specific analysis is given [47]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. - Aluminum: With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [54].

Core Insights - In June, U.S. businesses unexpectedly reduced orders for commercial equipment, indicating a cautious attitude towards capital expenditure due to uncertainties in trade and government policies [1][4] - Durable goods orders fell by 9.3%, better than the expected decline of 10.7%, while non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft decreased by 0.7%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.1% [5][6] - The report highlights that small businesses have also reduced capital spending and investment plans due to increased import tariffs eroding profits and raising raw material costs [5] Economic Indicators - Core capital goods shipments, which exclude aircraft and military equipment, increased by 0.5%, revised from 0.4%, indicating a clearer picture of actual sales [6] - The U.S. Commerce Department is set to release preliminary estimates for second-quarter GDP, with expectations of a 0.5 percentage point annualized decline in business equipment spending compared to the first quarter [6] - Boeing reported a significant drop in orders for commercial aircraft in June, with only 116 orders compared to 303 in May, reflecting volatility in this sector [6] Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding trade and tariff policies continues to pose risks for long-term investment planning, particularly for companies with global supply chains [5] - The manufacturing sector's performance has been mixed, with a notable decline in the preliminary manufacturing index from S&P Global, marking the largest drop in three years [6]

智通财经APP获悉，截至7月22日，金属已成为2025年表现最佳的大宗商品子类，其中贵金属年内涨幅 达26.2%，工业金属上涨10.9%。然而，展望今年剩余时间，BMI研究机构对工业金属维持中性偏空的 展望，认为预期需求将走弱。 该机构近期维持2025年黄金均价3100美元/盎司的预测，并对未来几个月的金价持中性态度。 其认为，美联储在2025年末及2026年的降息声明，将是未来金价上涨的关键因素。 此外，BMI预计黄金将继续受益于各国央行增持行为，同时特朗普政府贸易政策变动的不确定性也将为 金价提供支撑底线。 中国市场金属消费在未来几个季度可能面临越来越大的阻力，这一方面来自美国关税政策的不确定性， 另一方面源于曾推动零售销售增长的消费品以旧换新政策效应逐渐减弱。 BMI分析师指出，从积极面来看，美元走弱可能在下半年为金属价格提供支撑。鉴于金属与美元存在反 向关联，这一因素将帮助金属价格维持稳定，遏制潜在跌幅。 至于贵金属，受避险需求、美元走弱以及美联储可能转向宽松政策带来的投资者信心改善等因素推动， 黄金价格目前在每盎司3342美元附近波动。 这主要源于中国市场消费疲软，以及2025年全球增长前景放缓，全 ...

Core Insights - Japan's private sector activity continues to expand at the beginning of the third quarter, but concerns over tariffs are a significant drag on growth [1] Group 1: Economic Activity - The initial PMI data from S&P Global indicates that while private sector activity is expanding, trade policy uncertainty is dampening optimism among service and manufacturing sectors regarding annual output [1] - Manufacturing output declined again in July, with manufacturers facing a continuous decrease in new orders as clients adopt a wait-and-see approach, contrasting with robust growth in the services sector [1] Group 2: Business Confidence - Business confidence is at its second-lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a slowdown in hiring activities [1] Group 3: Cost Pressures and Inflation - Companies report a continued easing of cost pressures, suggesting that inflation may further cool during the summer months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's manufacturing activity has entered a contraction phase in July due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, with the manufacturing PMI dropping below the neutral mark for the first time in 13 months [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI preliminary value for July fell from June's final value of 50.1 to 48.8, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Key sub-indices such as output and new orders decreased at the fastest rates in four months and three months, respectively, as companies reassess the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Services Sector - In contrast to manufacturing, Japan's services sector continues to perform well, with activity growth reaching its fastest pace in five months driven by strong demand [1] Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding future trade policies is negatively impacting expectations for the upcoming year [1]