Group 1 - Silver futures showed a slight increase, with the main contract on July 8 reported at 8958 CNY/kg, up 0.28% from the opening price of 8856 CNY/kg [1] - The highest price reached was 8959 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 8839 CNY/kg [1] Group 2 - FHN economist Chris Low noted that despite better-than-expected non-farm employment data for June, the overall situation is not celebratory, with only 74,000 private sector jobs added when excluding new teacher positions [2] - Low humorously suggested that setting low expectations can make poor data appear better, indicating a need to face the reality of slowing economic growth in the U.S. [2] Group 3 - Guoxin Futures commented on the uncertainty in trade policies, suggesting that silver futures may exhibit a volatile pattern due to recent tariff announcements by President Trump [3] - The report indicated that precious metals experienced wide fluctuations, with New York gold futures down 0.11% and Shanghai silver down 0.19% [3] - Looking ahead, precious metals are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to the influence of the U.S. dollar index and trade policy uncertainties, while medium to long-term support is expected from central bank purchases, technological demand, and de-dollarization trends [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses how geopolitical uncertainty and tariff policies have led to increased defensive investments by governments and companies, unexpectedly supporting the stock market [2][3] - The European Union has allowed member states to increase defense spending, with Germany planning to raise military expenditure to over 1% of GDP and invest an additional €500 billion (approximately $588 billion) in infrastructure [2] - The Stoxx Aerospace and Defense Index surged 54% in the first half of the year, marking a historic performance with a 74% increase in USD terms [2] Group 2 - There are three potential scenarios regarding the impact of geopolitical and tariff uncertainties on the economy: 1. The market may have already priced in the uncertainties, with a belief that Trump will not reimpose severe tariffs [3] 2. The uncertainties may primarily affect the value of the dollar, as foreign investors show decreased interest in U.S. assets, leading to the worst dollar performance since the Nixon administration [5] 3. The uncertainties could eventually harm the economy as CEOs delay critical decisions, which may suppress corporate investment [6][8] Group 3 - The article highlights a divide between bullish and bearish perspectives, with bulls focusing on current economic conditions and strong corporate investments, while bears emphasize the potential negative impacts of uncertainty on consumer and business sentiment [8] - Concerns are raised about inflationary pressures and growth slowdowns due to tariffs, with some analysts suggesting that now may be an appropriate time to cash out given the high valuations in the stock market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is causing significant turmoil in global markets, with mixed signals from the Trump administration leading to confusion about the effective dates of tariffs [1][13]. Market Reactions - Asian stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Thailand's SET index both dropping approximately 0.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6% [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both down about 0.5% [1]. - Commodity prices generally decreased, with gold dropping over $20 to $3314 per ounce, and copper falling for the third consecutive day to $9821 per ton [1][6]. Commodity Market Impact - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to widespread declines in commodity prices, with iron ore prices in Singapore down 0.3% to $95.60 per ton, and futures for steel in Dalian and Shanghai also declining [6]. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel, influenced by both tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to increase production [7]. Bond Market Response - There was an increase in demand for safe-haven bonds, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropping nearly 2 basis points to 4.326% [10]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly rose to 97.071, while the euro to dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830 [10].

Group 1: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day [1][3] - This marks a significant shift in OPEC+'s strategy from production cuts to actively ramping up capacity, following the removal of a 2.2 million barrels per day cut agreement in April [3] - The organization is considering another increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September, potentially allowing it to meet its 2023 supply targets a year ahead of schedule [3] Group 2: Global Oil Market Conditions - The global oil market is showing signs of oversupply, with Brent crude futures prices down 8.5% since 2025, influenced by increased production from OPEC+ and other regions [3] - The International Energy Agency anticipates a significant oversupply in the market later this year, with Wall Street predicting oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel or lower in the fourth quarter [3] Group 3: Trade Uncertainty Impact - President Trump's new tariff threats are expected to weaken market risk appetite, with potential tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% affecting a wide range of countries [4] - This uncertainty may disrupt global supply chains and suppress energy consumption demand in major economies, raising concerns about the impact on global economic recovery [4] - The combination of weak demand and increased supply poses significant challenges to the balance of the oil market, with WTI crude falling to $66.50 per barrel [4]

徐闻宇 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 期货研究报告 | FICC 组 外汇半年报 展望 2025 年下半年，预计美元兑人民币将在 6.8–7.3 区间内维持双向窄幅波动。市场普遍认为人民币不存在大幅单边贬值或升值的基 础：美元指数可能继续偏弱但其下行速度放缓，人民币汇率升破 6.8 的可能性较低，而即使遭遇外部冲击也有望守住 7.3 左右的政策底 线。整体趋势上，人民币对美元将保持温和偏升的态势：在弱势美元环境下延续小幅升值，但幅度有限，年底前汇率中枢或稳步略有下 移。 外汇：美元难以转向 FICC 组研究报告 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 z 蔡劭立 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 汪雅航 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 朱思谋 从业资格号：F03142856 FICC 组 | 外汇半年报 2025-07-06 美元难以转向 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 徐闻宇 邮箱： xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The June non-farm payroll report revealed a significant increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.3% [1][3] - The job growth was primarily driven by a surge in government employment, particularly in education-related positions, which accounted for nearly half of the new jobs, indicating a structural imbalance in employment growth [3][9] - The report raised concerns about the sustainability of job growth, as private sector job additions were only 74,000, reflecting a moderate economic vitality [3][10] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, the financial markets experienced a rapid shift, with the dollar index rising by 0.6%, marking the largest single-day increase in three months, while gold prices fell sharply [5][6] - The expectations for a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve plummeted, with the probability of maintaining rates rising from 76.7% to 93.3%, indicating a fundamental shift in market pricing logic [4][5] Group 3: Political and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The release of the non-farm data sparked a heated debate in the U.S. political and financial spheres, highlighting the tension between political influence and the independence of monetary policy [7][8] - President Trump claimed credit for the job growth, labeling it the "Trump effect," despite the fact that a significant portion of the job increase came from government sectors, undermining the narrative of private sector prosperity [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Concerns - The report highlighted three major concerns: the sustainability of job growth, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies, and the potential for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [9][10] - Analysts expressed differing views on the Fed's future actions, with some suggesting that the likelihood of rate cuts has diminished, while others warned that economic indicators could still prompt a policy shift later in the year [8][10]

高盛分析师周四在报告中指出，尽管特朗普的新政策可能正在颠覆全球贸易秩序，但迄今尚未对经济造 成严重冲击。"几乎没有迹象表明政策不确定性正在损害经济活动，"高盛团队在报告中写道。 在高盛报告发布之际，美国6月就业数据好于预期：经济新增14.7万个岗位，失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。 投资者情绪乐观，标普500和纳斯达克指数创历史新高。 尽管分析师此前预期特朗普第二任期将拖累经济，但数据呈现出截然不同的图景：自2024年末以来，主 要发达及新兴市场的投资、工厂招聘、消费支出及整体经济活动均保持韧性。 可以肯定的是，以历史标准衡量，贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高，高盛的不确定性指数在特朗普当选后 飙升。但近几个月来，随着贸易协议谈判推进，这种不确定性有所缓解。 事实上，对全球二季度及全年经济增长的预测已从先前的悲观预期中回升。分析师指出，在多数经济体 中，贸易相关投资占GDP比重较小，因此影响"小到难以察觉"。新工厂投资虽有下滑（尤其是在新兴市 场），但这在主要经济体中仅占GDP的0.2-0.3个百分点。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 报告强调，政策不确定性通常在金融环境收紧时影响最大，但今年以来全球流动性实际 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing warning signs, with a decline in private sector employment for the first time in over two years, raising concerns about economic health and increasing bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment fell by 33,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations of a 100,000 increase, marking the first decline since March 2023 [1] - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the services sector, with a total reduction of 66,000 jobs, including 56,000 in professional and business services and 52,000 in education and healthcare services [1][2] - The goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, driven mainly by manufacturing [1] Wage Growth - Despite hiring freezes, wage growth remains stable, with wages for stayers increasing by 4.4% year-over-year and those changing jobs seeing an average increase of 6.8% [2] - The ADP Chief Economist noted that layoffs are still rare, but hiring hesitance and reluctance to replace departing employees are contributing to the job reduction [2] Economic Outlook - The decline in employment numbers suggests a weak labor market, with fewer job openings compared to a year ago, making it unlikely for companies to recruit more staff before economic acceleration occurs [2][3] - The JOLTS report indicated a decrease in job openings, with May figures showing 5.503 million job openings, down by 112,000 [3] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Recent data indicates a decline in employment growth as companies navigate trade policy uncertainties, but large-scale layoffs have not yet occurred [2][3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July increased from 20% to 25% following the ADP data release, with investors anticipating a 25 basis point cut in December [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, with Wall Street predicting a drop in job creation to 110,000 in June, which would be the lowest level for the year since 2010 [4][5]

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) indicates that trade policy uncertainty and unclear end-user demand have significantly impacted the U.S. chemical industry, with a projected growth of only 0.3% in chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) for this year and a contraction of 0.2% expected by 2026 [1] - ACC forecasts a decline in consumer spending and business investment growth, with consumer spending expected to grow by 1.9% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, and business investment growth projected at 1.7%, down from 4.0% last year [2] - The overall outlook for the chemical industry has worsened due to trade policy uncertainty, which is seen as the primary factor affecting the industry's prospects for 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Performance - Despite the overall downturn, certain end markets are expected to perform relatively well, with the semiconductor industry projected to grow by 7.0% this year, driven by demand for artificial intelligence applications [3] - ACC has downgraded growth forecasts for most chemical end markets, anticipating that about half of these markets will experience a decline in sales this year [3] - U.S. chemical exports are expected to decrease by 1.9%, while imports are projected to decline by 1.0%, although the U.S. is expected to maintain a trade surplus in chemicals [3]

一、基本面 制造业低迷：6月制造业PMI显示制造业依然低迷，关税政策的不确定性导致供应链瓶颈，工厂等待原材料时间延长，企业对长期采购决策持谨慎态度。 黄金周二（7月2日）早盘开盘后就一路慢涨，欧盘延续上涨，到美盘初最高上涨至3358附近，美盘震荡下探3337/3336附近，日线收出一根阳线。 1、特朗普减税议案通过：7月1日，美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案，该议案预计将在未来十年内导致财政赤字增加3万亿美元。这会刺激通 胀压力，加重美国债务负担，而黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种情况下吸引了更多投资者关注，推动价格上涨。 2、贸易政策不确定性：美国财政部长贝森特警告称，随着7月9日贸易关税暂停期限临近，各国可能面临大幅提高的关税税率。特朗普对日本等国可能征收 更高关税的表态，加剧了市场对全球贸易环境的紧张情绪，进一步推动金价上涨。 3、美国经济数据复杂： 职位空缺增加：美国5月职位空缺意外增加37.4万个，达到776.9万个，超出市场预期。 支撑位上，关注3315-3310区域支撑，这里是5日均线和60日均线目前位置，金价转强站上均线上方，回落关注均线支撑情况。 劳动力市场动能减弱：5月裁员人数减少 ...