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投资大家谈 | 姜诚:用现实主义的方法,实现理想主义的目标
点拾投资· 2025-06-13 04:58
Core Viewpoint - Value investing is applicable in the A-share market, as long as there are transparent prices and assessable values for assets [1][2]. Group 1: Concerns about Value Investing - The anxiety surrounding the application of value investing stems from concerns about its ability to outperform the market and whether investors will trust active management again [2][3]. - It is a misconception that all investors can achieve excess returns; the total returns of all investors equal the market returns minus transaction costs [2]. - The rise of index funds is a result of diminishing excess returns rather than the disappearance of excess returns [2]. Group 2: Opportunities for Excess Returns - The ability to achieve excess returns is influenced by the similarity of investment strategies among investors and the differences in their investment capabilities [3]. - A-share market still presents opportunities for excess returns, as not all investors have the same capabilities [3]. Group 3: Building Trust with Investors - Gaining trust from investors is more challenging than outperforming the market; communication during downturns is crucial [4]. - The key to regaining trust lies in aligning the returns of investors with the net asset value of the fund [3][4]. Group 4: Managing Volatility - Many investors lack the patience for long-term holding and tend to trade too frequently, which harms their returns [5]. - Research indicates that funds with lower volatility tend to have better performance and lower chances of loss for investors [5]. - The challenge is to find ways to reduce volatility without sacrificing returns, which varies for each fund manager [5]. Group 5: Realism in Investment Strategy - Fund managers often exhibit idealistic views that may not align with reality, leading to flawed logic in their investment narratives [6]. - A balanced approach that combines realistic methods with idealistic goals is essential for successful value investing [7].
中泰资管天团 | 姜诚:用现实主义的方法,实现理想主义的目标
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-12 11:31
再三被问到这个问题时,才发现这背后不是对价值投资本身的质疑,而是对它在资产管理行业中应用前景 的焦虑,包括对价值投资还能否战胜市场的焦虑,还有对持有人能否再次相信主动管理的焦虑。这样的焦 虑事出有因,应该认真对待。 最近的交流中,我被问到最多的问题是:价值投资在A股适不适用?问题让人意外,因为答案是显而易见 的——适用。只要有透明的价格和价值可以被评估的资产,价值投资就适用,它不局限于股市,更不存在 A股例外论。至于什么样的资产是好资产,什么样的价格是好价格,可以仁者见仁智者见智。 对超额收益的担忧或许是多虑,几个常被忽略的事实给予我们信心:一是所有投资者作为一个整体不会有 超额收益,所有人的总收益等于市场总收益减去交易成本;二是总有人能够获得超额收益,这不取决于他 们做的是哪种投资,而取决于他们做得如何;三是指数基金大发展其实是超额收益衰减的结果,而不是超 额收益消失的原因。指数是基准,不是对手,主动投资者不会把钱输给"指数",只会输给其他主动投资 者。主动投资者是一体的两面,一个人没法通过左脚踩右脚登天,也无法通过敲自己的头把自己钉到地 里。 有多少人能够获得超额收益以及能够获得多少超额收益,跟投资者投资 ...
中泰资管天团 | 姜诚:用现实主义的方法,实现理想主义的目标
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-12 09:35
Core Viewpoint - Value investing is applicable in the A-share market, as long as there are transparent prices and assessable values for assets, and it is not limited to the stock market or specific to A-shares [2] Group 1: Concerns about Excess Returns - There is anxiety regarding the future application of value investing in asset management, including whether it can outperform the market and whether investors can trust active management again [2] - The concern about excess returns may be overblown, as it is a fact that all investors as a whole cannot achieve excess returns; total returns equal market returns minus transaction costs [2] - There will always be individuals who can achieve excess returns, which depends on their execution rather than the type of investment they make [2] Group 2: Active Management and Investor Trust - The challenge lies not only in whether fund managers can outperform the market but also in regaining investors' trust in active management [3] - Trust is asymmetric; while fund managers may remain calm during market downturns, investors often struggle to maintain composure [3][4] - The key to regaining trust in the fund industry is to align the returns of investors with the net asset value of the funds [4] Group 3: Communication and Performance - It is relatively easier for fund managers to outperform the market over a market cycle, but consistently doing so each year is challenging [6] - Effective communication during underperformance is crucial, as it is more beneficial than boasting during high-performance periods [6] - The approach of "accompanying" investors to foster long-term trust is one method being employed [6] Group 4: Volatility and Returns - Research indicates that funds with lower volatility tend to have better performance and lower chances of investor losses [7] - The relationship between short-term volatility and long-term returns in the A-share market suggests that reducing volatility does not necessarily lead to lower returns [7] - The real challenge is finding methods to reduce volatility without sacrificing returns, which varies for each fund manager [7] Group 5: Realism in Investment Strategy - Fund managers often exhibit idealistic views that can be challenged by reality, leading to errors in logic and assumptions [8] - A balanced approach that combines realism with idealism is necessary to achieve the goal of value investing and helping more people profit from it [8]
申万宏源“研选”说——用股指ETF和指数增强玩转指数投资
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-06-12 02:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences and advantages of Index ETFs and Index Enhanced products, likening them to "autonomous driving cars" and "experienced drivers" respectively, emphasizing their distinct investment strategies and suitability for different types of investors [1][2]. Group 1: Index ETFs - Index ETFs aim to replicate the performance of a specific index by tracking its constituent stocks and weights, similar to an autonomous vehicle following a set route [3]. - Key advantages of Index ETFs include low fees, transparent holdings, and flexible trading, making them suitable for investors seeking a hassle-free investment approach [3]. Group 2: Index Enhanced Products - Index Enhanced products build on the foundation of tracking an index by identifying stocks with relative advantages, aiming to generate excess returns (Alpha) on top of the market returns (Beta) [4]. - The essence of Index Enhanced products is compared to an experienced driver who optimizes the route based on real-time conditions, allowing for potential outperformance [4]. Group 3: On-Site vs. Off-Site Funds - On-site funds are traded on stock exchanges and require a securities account, offering real-time trading similar to stocks, while off-site funds are purchased through third-party platforms without the need for a securities account [5][6]. - The cost structure differs, with on-site funds typically having lower transaction costs (usually ≤0.3%) compared to off-site funds, which have higher overall fees [6]. - On-site funds are suitable for short-term operations or arbitrage, while off-site funds cater to long-term holding or systematic investment plans [6]. Group 4: Public vs. Private Index Enhanced Funds - Public index enhanced funds have high transparency with full disclosure of holdings and net asset values, while private funds have lower transparency with limited disclosure [8]. - The flexibility in strategy is greater for private funds, allowing for high-frequency trading, short selling, and leverage, whereas public funds are more restricted [8]. - The sources of excess returns differ, with public funds relying on fundamental stock selection and private funds utilizing multiple strategies including quantitative models and arbitrage [8].
想赚1.5%管理费有多难?
远川投资评论· 2025-06-06 07:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of public funds in China, particularly focusing on the introduction of floating fee rate funds and the challenges faced by actively managed equity funds in outperforming benchmarks [1][2][16]. Group 1: Floating Fee Rate Funds - The first batch of 26 floating fee rate funds was quickly approved and reached a fundraising cap of 20 billion within a short period, indicating strong market interest [1]. - The fee structure of these funds is asymmetric, where higher management fees are charged when performance exceeds benchmarks, while lower fees apply when performance lags, aiming to align the interests of fund managers and investors [2][24]. - Despite the innovative fee structure, the average management fee for actively managed equity funds remains at 1.2%, as many investors do not hold funds for more than a year, limiting the potential for higher fees [5][29]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - A significant portion of investors (41%) hold funds for less than a year, which complicates the ability of fund managers to achieve the performance needed to charge higher fees [4][5]. - In the past year, only 24% of actively managed equity funds outperformed their benchmarks by 6 percentage points, highlighting the difficulty in consistently achieving superior returns [7][11]. - Over the past three years, only 259 actively managed equity funds have exceeded benchmark returns by 6%, while 2004 funds have underperformed by 3% or more, indicating a challenging environment for fund managers [11][14]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The introduction of floating fee rate funds is part of a regulatory push to reduce the risk of significant underperformance relative to benchmarks, rather than merely to increase management fees [16][22]. - The regulatory framework aims to strengthen the binding nature of performance benchmarks and reduce the prevalence of style drift among fund managers, ensuring that funds are more aligned with their stated objectives [21][22]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Historical Context - The market sentiment towards floating fee rate funds is cautious, as previous attempts to implement similar structures faced challenges and regulatory scrutiny [27][28]. - The article notes that while there is renewed interest in floating fee rate funds, they have not yet reached the marketing heights seen with other fund types, such as the A500 index funds [27][28].
金融期货早班车-20250529
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:55
Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On May 28th, the four major A-share stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.31% to 1985.38 points, and the STAR 50 Index slipped 0.23% to 970.64 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In the industry sectors, textile and apparel (+1.17%), environmental protection (+0.89%), and coal (+0.74%) led the gains, while basic chemicals (-0.79%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.78%), and national defense and military industry (-0.72%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,750/181/3,477 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -5.8 billion, -12.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -2.9 billion, -1 billion, +2.5 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On May 28th, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the actively traded contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.376, unchanged from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.497, also unchanged; the ten - year bond was 1.618, down 0.7 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.985, down 0.1 bps [3]. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indices recently is due to the expansion of neutral product scale since this year. As the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue. It is recommended to go long on the economy, and it is advisable to allocate IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [2]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current spot bonds show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, this pattern is expected to change in the future. The government bond net supply rhythm may slow down in June, the long - term liability cost of insurance may be lowered in July, and the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short in the long - term, buy T and TL contracts on dips in the short - term, and hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and basis. For example, for IC2506, the price change was -0.26%, the current price was 5568.0 points, and the basis was 69.2 points [5]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including code, name, price changes, trading volume, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rates. For instance, for TS2506, the price change was -0.01%, the current price was 102.2 points, and the net basis was 0.0 [6]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined, while the real estate market has improved [10].
防守反击:普通人投资理财的唯一正确姿势
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-28 12:53
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that quick reactions in investing often stem from fear and greed rather than informed decision-making [2][6][8] - Ordinary investors tend to rely on instinctual responses, which can lead to poor investment choices during market volatility [3][4][6] - The article suggests that true investment opportunities are rare, and most market movements are oscillatory rather than trending [7][24] Group 2 - The concept of "defensive counterattack" is introduced, highlighting the need for ordinary investors to adopt a mindset of caution and strategy [10][17][29] - Key strategies include fishing in less crowded markets, focusing on long-term trends, and developing a "dull sensitivity" to market noise [10][18][43] - The importance of having a simple reaction framework to avoid emotional trading is emphasized, suggesting that investors should prepare for various market scenarios [50][53][54] Group 3 - The article discusses the significance of understanding market trends over focusing on minute details, particularly for non-professional investors [22][29] - It highlights the historical performance of indices like the S&P 500, indicating that long-term investment strategies can yield positive results despite market fluctuations [24][27] - The need for a well-structured investment portfolio that aligns with realistic return expectations is stressed [55] Group 4 - The article outlines four key strategies for defensive counterattack: fishing in less crowded areas, grasping the overall market trend, developing dull sensitivity, and having a unique investment strategy [10][18][43][54] - It emphasizes that ordinary investors should set lower return expectations and focus on consistent execution of their investment plans [55] - The necessity of having contingency plans for market changes is highlighted, allowing investors to remain calm and make informed decisions during volatility [53][54]
基金业绩比较基准研究系列:国内主动型债券基金
CMS· 2025-05-26 09:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the performance comparison benchmarks of domestic active bond funds. It analyzes the benchmark settings of various sub - types of active bond funds and their deviations in actual operations. After the release of the "Action Plan", some bond funds have adjusted their performance comparison benchmarks. The report also studies the correlation between funds and benchmarks, tracking errors, and excess returns [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction On May 7, 2025, the CSRC issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds", emphasizing the importance of performance comparison benchmarks. The report, as the second in the series, will analyze the benchmark settings and actual operation deviations of domestic active bond funds [9]. 3.2 Active Bond Fund Performance Comparison Benchmark Characteristics - **Generalized Active Bond Fund Sample Selection**: As of May 7, 2025, 4191 generalized active bond funds in existence and with performance comparison benchmarks were selected as samples, with a total scale of 9.05 trillion yuan. The samples include 7 types of funds, and the medium - long - term pure - bond funds have the largest number and scale [9][10][12]. - **Performance Benchmark Composition Method**: The performance comparison benchmarks of active bond funds have various forms, mainly including single bond indexes or weighted composites of different indexes. The component indexes can be classified into 6 major categories, and the bond index can be further divided into 5 sub - types, while the stock index can be divided into 9 sub - types [13]. - **Performance Benchmark Commonly Used Indexes**: The top ten "main benchmark indexes" of medium - long - term pure - bond funds are mainly indexes compiled by ChinaBond. For example, the number of funds with ChinaBond - Composite Full Price (Total Value) Index as the main benchmark index is 964, accounting for 52.56%. The main benchmark indexes of convertible bond funds are mainly convertible bond indexes, with CSI Convertible Bond Index being the most used. The main benchmark indexes of fixed - income enhanced funds are mainly A - share market indexes such as CSI 300 Index [36][41][50]. - **Comparison of Commonly Used Index Clusters**: The ChinaBond index system is compiled by the Central Government Bond Depository Trust & Clearing Co., Ltd., and the CSI index system is compiled by CSI Index Co., Ltd. The component bond listing locations, remaining maturities, and credit ratings of ChinaBond and CSI indexes are different [54][57]. - **Weight Distribution of "Main Benchmark Indexes"**: For most active bond funds, the weights of ChinaBond - Composite Full Price (Total Value) Index and ChinaBond - Composite Wealth (Total Value) Index are mainly in the range of 90 - 100% for medium - long - term pure - bond funds, mixed bond - type first - level funds, and mixed bond - type second - level funds. The weights of equity indexes in the performance comparison benchmarks of mixed bond - type second - level funds, convertible bond - type funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds are relatively concentrated [62][66]. 3.3 Fund Performance and Benchmark Correlation and Other Analyses - **Correlation Analysis between Active Bond Funds and Their Benchmarks**: From 2022 to 2025, convertible bond - type funds, short - term pure - bond funds, medium - short - term pure - bond funds, medium - long - term pure - bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds have relatively high correlations with their performance comparison benchmarks, while mixed bond - type first - level funds and mixed bond - type second - level funds have relatively low correlations [72][73]. - **Tracking Error and Excess Return of Funds Relative to the Benchmark**: The average tracking error of pure - bond funds is less than that of products with embedded options. Among fixed - income enhanced bond funds, first - level bond funds have lower tracking errors, second - level bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds are relatively close, and convertible bond funds have the highest and most volatile tracking errors. Most pure - bond funds can outperform the benchmark in most years, and the average outperformance is within 2%. Among fixed - income enhanced funds, partial - debt hybrid funds have relatively high average excess returns [3][78]. - **Distribution of Fund Types with Significant Underperformance against the Benchmark**: Pure - bond funds have relatively small deviations from the benchmark and a low proportion of significant underperformance. The performance of fixed - income enhanced funds is related to the selected time interval and the performance of the equity market. In the long - term, active bond funds have the ability to obtain positive excess returns relative to the benchmark, but there are significant performance differences within each type of fund [3].
主动基金PK被动ETF!华宝黄孔威称15只ETF组成硬科技矩阵,安信刘入领称重点仍是主动、大概率能找回超额收益
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-26 07:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the conference is the emphasis on the development of high-quality funds, with a focus on innovative investment strategies in the technology sector [1] - Huabao Fund has established a diversified ETF matrix consisting of 15 high-quality ETFs, with a total asset management scale of 42.9 billion yuan as of May 12, 2025 [2] - The company has launched the first "Entrepreneurial Board Artificial Intelligence ETF" and "Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF," positioning itself as a leader in the AI ETF market [2] Group 2 - Anxin Fund's primary focus remains on active management, with plans to develop passive business in the future [3] - The company believes that active management has significant growth opportunities, as historical data shows that public funds have generally achieved positive returns outside of the last two years [3][4] - Anxin Fund asserts that with the right alpha strategies, the likelihood of achieving positive returns will increase significantly in the future [3]
银行+微盘携手新高,如何做到高效配置?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 02:17
Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has seen significant attention on micro-cap stocks and bank stocks, with the Wind Micro-Cap Index recently reaching a historical high and the Shenwan Bank Index hitting a new high since 2021, indicating a shift in capital preferences and providing a differentiated allocation strategy [1][2]. Group 2: Bank Stocks - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to public fund reforms that increase the allocation capacity for bank stocks, leading to more capital inflow into the banking sector [2]. - The implementation of policies aimed at increasing long-term capital market participation, such as requiring insurance funds to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares, is expected to bring additional funds to high-dividend assets like banks [2]. - In a market characterized by ongoing fluctuations and declining risk-free interest rates, bank stocks are appealing due to their high dividend yields and stable payouts [2]. Group 3: Micro-Cap Stocks - Recent monetary policies, including a total of 800 billion yuan in support for fund insurance company swaps and stock repurchase loans, have significantly expanded market liquidity, further enhancing the small-cap growth trend [3]. - The volatility in the broader market has led to frequent rotations among industry sectors, highlighting the elastic advantage of micro-cap stocks, which can experience substantial price increases with capital inflows due to their smaller market capitalization [3]. Group 4: Investment Vehicles - For investors looking to participate in these two popular sectors, ETFs such as the Bank ETF Preferred (SH517900) and the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (SZ159552) are recommended for safer exposure [3]. - The Bank ETF Preferred (517900) has outperformed its benchmark by over 11% and the CSI 300 Index by more than 50% over the past three years, showcasing its strong excess return capability [5]. - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has also delivered over 11% excess returns relative to the CSI 2000 Index this year, indicating its effectiveness as an index-enhanced fund [8]. Group 5: Strategic Insights - The simultaneous rise of bank and micro-cap stocks reflects a market seeking certainty amid uncertainty, with bank stocks providing stable dividends to counter volatility and micro-cap stocks offering high elasticity for excess returns, creating a balanced investment strategy [6][7].